Covid-19 Pandemic

[Burncycle360]

The tragic irony of countering pandemics is if you are appropriately aggressive early enough and successfully isolate and contain an outbreak, the population will think you overreacted because it wasnt worse. But it wasnt worse because of how you reacted. They will associate it with not being as bad as the govt thought. That means spending tens of billions (which seems reasonable now compared to the economic impact) will be so relatively extreme early on that people will balk at the idea. This is one thing that proportional response is not what you want.

 

I am concerned with this one, but its because I live in proximity to a 65 yo and 70 yo who are important to me, and who have a lot of comorbid risk factors. So I will take the funny looks going to the store wearing a mask while people buying all the toilet paper get a nod.

 

I brought up to our brothers in EMS that the median serial interval for coronavirus is shorter than the median incubation period, and cited my sources. This means an infected person can spread the virus prior to feeling ill, showing signs or symptoms or even knowing they are sick. Yet our modified protocols are still reactionary and oriented towards those showing signs and symptoms and operating as normal (including no source control) if the patient appears okay.

 

No bueno.

[Stuart Galbraith]

From various posts on Twitter (which as always is a wholly reliable source) there are claims the Government is delving further into the Cold War Government War book. Reportedly No10 and Parliament may be guarded by Soldiers to relieve policemen who may be suffering from Coronavirus.

 

No idea if there is any confirmation of any of this, but it would be a good sense, practical idea, which is the reason why I profoundly doubt it.

[Rick]

For what it is worth:

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-having-swine-flu-taught-me-about-the-coronavirus-2020-2

 

I don't watch t.v., but I understand there has been a tad amount of comparison between the politics of swine flu during President Obama and this virus under Trump Another reason why the news media are lower than whale dung.

[DougRichards]

From various posts on Twitter (which as always is a wholly reliable source) there are claims the Government is delving further into the Cold War Government War book. Reportedly No10 and Parliament may be guarded by Soldiers to relieve policemen who may be suffering from Coronavirus.

 

No idea if there is any confirmation of any of this, but it would be a good sense, practical idea, which is the reason why I profoundly doubt it.

Will the squadies be wearing NBC suits? After all they may otherwise catch the virus from the politicians.

[DougRichards]

Would it help to say that I expect to catch the virus, and being 63 years old I have a reasonable chance of survival?

[BansheeOne]

Well, we essentially cancelled Easter for the family. Both my parents are at high risk, not just from being mid-70s; my mother narrowly survived a lung edema in December, and my father is a stroke patient with an appointment in ten days to remove a kidney stone which is the likely culprit for repeated recent bouts of urosepsis. Their area is so far clean, while Berlin will probably close down all public venues and reduce public transport on Tuesday to at least 20 April to mitigate local spread.

 

Myself, I would probably not even notice getting this bug with my chronically runny nose and my neck tending towards slight stenosis, the effects of which can feel a bit like the flu sometimes, minus the fever. Put it on the family chat, and we agreed that barring an unforeseen change of circumstances, it's better not to travel home from all over Northern Germany in favor of having everybody safe and sound on the next occasion after this blows over. I'm pissed because I had looked forward to it, but not gonna take the risk.

 

We're running emergency operations at the office from Monday, with only one person per room coming in, the rest working from home or field sales only, as far as there will still be appointments. I'm standing in for our office manager who has a public one-and-a-half-hour commute and will leave next month anyway, while I'm cycling to work. We had planned for her to work me in over a six-week period, but now two and remote support will have to do. We're definitely beginning to feel the economic impact, with anyone tourism-related in particular cancelling ads. A caterer who had had a contract for Berlin's International Tourism Fair told me this week he can't see beyond one or two months right now.

[seahawk]

Got notification for possible crisis response team duty in my city today.

[LT Ducky]

This report of pandemic panic in Southeastern Pennsylvania (30 miles north of Philadelphia) -

 

Niece goes to state college, Spring break extended by 7 days

All schools K-12 closed for next 2 weeks

County library system closed for 2 weeks

A friend works in a local up-scale restaurant, home early last night (Friday) due to lack of patrons

Neighbor reports local supermarket jammed yesterday, Ill be shopping today

 

No dead bodies in the streets yet

[RETAC21]

Posted by Jim Martin on FB, pretty good IMO:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR34o_ncVTS1PzU13ott_cAEAzc58M8See7GNdAoFWU5nZwFysYEud_1ngQ

[JasonJ]

Japanese government seems hell bent on carrying out the Olympics on time.

 

Information on coronavirus situation in Japan with number changes over the days since February 6th. Both Japanese and English. English is linked.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

 

 

As March 14th 12PM (Japan time)

Total cases: 761

Active cases: 629

Discharged from the hospital: 111

Deaths: 21

PRC tests carried out: 12090

[WRW]

Posted by Jim Martin on FB, pretty good IMO:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR34o_ncVTS1PzU13ott_cAEAzc58M8See7GNdAoFWU5nZwFysYEud_1ngQ

watch this guy routinely - found him sensible and good communicator

[WRW]

Am in UAE

have reduced outside ramblings - particularly crowded places - age not too bad 62 but have whet is nicely referred to as unerlying health issues that are best not aggravated

 

am freelance consultant - really no idea of what impact will be on work but at moment am just sitting

 

wife is now home based working on trial basis from home, like wise daughter split office teams and home based trials

 

son (hopefully ) studying for University exams fro his place - Uni shut

 

what amazes and somewhat annoys me is the perceived lack of contingency planning at all levels in almost all countries

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

From various posts on Twitter (which as always is a wholly reliable source) there are claims the Government is delving further into the Cold War Government War book. Reportedly No10 and Parliament may be guarded by Soldiers to relieve policemen who may be suffering from Coronavirus.

 

No idea if there is any confirmation of any of this, but it would be a good sense, practical idea, which is the reason why I profoundly doubt it.

Will the squadies be wearing NBC suits? After all they may otherwise catch the virus from the politicians.

 

Considering this may not be over by the summer, we may soon see the remarkable spectacle of Trooping the colour in full NBC kit. That includes the Queen.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Would it help to say that I expect to catch the virus, and being 63 years old I have a reasonable chance of survival?

You're Australian, there are few problems that cant be solved by assless chaps and a Turbo Interceptor.

[Markus Becker]

German supermarkets will most likely benefit from Corona because the Agricultural Secretary has asked people not to panic buy. She reassured us that there is enough of anything as long as people aren't hoarding. *sigh*

 

This will have an effect just not the one she intended.

[lucklucky]

Here (in Portugal) was more amusing: Health general director: "Let each of us have as resort a friend's vegetable garden. Do not hoard."

 

Like if not most people live in coastal cities...

 

Before that from another person of responsibility: virus will not reach here.

 

Another: schools are closed and children will stay at home, but in smart head of education department, all the teachers will have to go to their schools everyday. No holidays!

[BansheeOne]

Well, the panic buying has definitely spread to the grocery section of my supermarket. One shelf only had cherry tomatoes left which, as luck would have it, was the exact thing I wanted.

 

I thought as much after the announcement that parts of Berlin gastronomy would be shut down next week, even though it was said at the same time that shops would remain open. Me, I got a panic haircut - you know, just in case they close the barbershops for a couple weeks.

Edited March 14, 2020 by BansheeOne

[Mistral]

Here (in Portugal) was more amusing: Health general director: "Let each of us have as resort a friend's vegetable garden. Do not hoard."

 

Like if not most people live in coastal cities...

 

Before that from another person of responsibility: virus will not reach here.

 

Another: schools are closed and children will stay at home, but in smart head of education department, all the teachers will have to go to their schools everyday. No holidays!

 

And the stupid thing is that the parents are forced to leave the children with the grandparents while at work. This will end well...

[RETAC21]

 

Here (in Portugal) was more amusing: Health general director: "Let each of us have as resort a friend's vegetable garden. Do not hoard."

 

Like if not most people live in coastal cities...

 

Before that from another person of responsibility: virus will not reach here.

 

Another: schools are closed and children will stay at home, but in smart head of education department, all the teachers will have to go to their schools everyday. No holidays!

 

And the stupid thing is that the parents are forced to leave the children with the grandparents while at work. This will end well...

 

 

Well, the moment lockdown comes, everyone needs to take the kids in...

[lucklucky]

After the backlash it seems the teachers are not anymore forced to go to the schools regardless of students not being there.

 

---

Yes the fact that older people will have to take the kids while parents work does not work very well, but any alternative will have costs regardless, This will restrict the family to family contamination but will explode the chances of within family contamination specially for older people.

[Der Zeitgeist]

After the backlash it seems the teachers are not anymore forced to go to the schools regardless of students not being there.

 

---

Yes the fact that older people will have to take the kids while parents work does not work very well, but any alternative will have costs regardless, This will restrict the family to family contamination but will explode the chances of within family contamination specially for older people.

 

One of the biggest points that was made in terms of crisis communications in Germany was to not let grandkids within proximity of their grandparents at all.

[lucklucky]

Make sense to protect the older persons in short term, but if the kids will as consequence must be put into schools in contact of many, that will may increase the virus spread overall.

An option i don't think how feasible is to have a teacher take control of say 20 children in isolated places.

 

Of course the time issue of the vaccine availability might make one option less wrong than the other but that is an unknown.

[GregShaw]

The state of Utah is doing what they are calling a "soft" closure of schools. My understanding is the kids aren't going to school, but the adults (teachers/administrators) are going in. Doubt that is going to work well, and most parents work so who is going to stay home with the brats? I think the Universities are trying to do more remote classes, which is a good thing anyways, this is 2020 not 1980.

[Der Zeitgeist]

[Deleted, because on second thought, the graphic or the point it was trying to make was kinda bullshit.]

Edited March 14, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist

[Ssnake]

Re: Home entertainment in times of the Virus

 

The wife refused to watch an educational video with me (Mad Max 2) under the threat of retaliation with an episode of her favorite fantasy series involving the grand homo marriage of the leading characters (just two, in case you were wondering). I don't understand it. It's not like Mad Max 2 is lacking in the homoeroticism department. What more does she want, beach volleyball?