Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[Roman Alymov]

 

[rohala]

Reportedly Azeri T-72 getting struck by Armenian RPG. It looks real close range and shows rather a lack of awareness/infantry support for the T-72

https://twitter.com/lostarmour/status/1312721222220869632?s=20 

Edited October 4, 2020 by rohala

[Roman Alymov]

Better video of this RPG shot

 

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, rohala said:

Reportedly Azeri T-72 getting struck by Armenian RPG. It looks real close range and shows rather a lack of awareness/infantry support for the T-72

https://twitter.com/lostarmour/status/1312721222220869632?s=20 

Recon by death

[Simon Tan]

The Azeris are like der Saudis/Emiratis. The Armenians are like the Houthi. 

[Simon Tan]

The Azeris have set themselves the goal of essentially retaking everything. Going to negotiations with Artsakh still in place, even if turned to rubble is a failure. The Armenians just have to not withdraw to achieve their goals. Perhaps the Azeris believe Sultan will send them the hordes of battle hardened janissaries who will do the ethnic cleansing for them? Undoubtedly on the basis that the Armenians did it first.

Technology rolls on but people don't change.

[Adam Peter]

Sultan weighted in, keeping the peace through war. Looks like Final Solution is ongoing, supported by the Vanguard Of Democracy In Un-democratic Places, Like Syria.

[Simon Tan]

It will not end well. First Padhinyan will have to go grovelling to Moscow. 

[Roman Alymov]

Rus TV report from Stepanakert

 

[Roman Alymov]

Armenian infantry

 

[Roman Alymov]

Stepanakert under fire

 

 

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

15 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

The Azeris are like der Saudis/Emiratis. The Armenians are like the Houthi. 

I think Arabs/Jews is better analogy here

[Daan]

The Azeris have managed to overrun some Armenian positions, including a D30 battery:

An Armenian S-300 system has also been active, with a 48N6 missile motor coming down in Azerbaijan:

It is one aspect of the war of which you hear very little, manned aircraft activity. Both countries maintain fleets of combat aircraft. Armenia is reported to have lost one or more Su-25s, but that's it.

[Gavin-Phillips]

This video popped up on my "suggested for you" list and seems to be a small collection (platoon?) of Azerbaijani-owned T-72 tanks.  You get a typical walk-around type of look at them before the crews mount their vehicles and move out of their resting positions.

Azerbaijani T-72's

What model of T-72's are these then?  T-72B perhaps?

[Gavin-Phillips]

43 minutes ago, Daan said:

The Azeris have managed to overrun some Armenian positions, including a D30 battery

I wonder what will happen to the D-30 and the munitions now?

[ink]

Question:

Is it possible the Azeris have a two-pronged strategy? By pushing to see if Nagorno Karabakh will fall they can: A) make the war seem big and dangerous to oil/gas supplies (possibly driving the price up and rescuing their hydrocarbon-based economy) and if it works out that Nagorno Karabakh does fall, all the better.

At the start of the fighting, it seemed that both parts of the strategy could pan out pretty quickly. Now that it's turning into a bit of a quagmire, part A seems the more likely. Even so, is it possible that for a relatively low price they could achieve one of their aims?

 

There's also almost certainly an internal politics dimension but I don't know anything about Azerbaijani politics so I'll leave that one to the more knowledgeable.

[RETAC21]

Well, frontlines are moving:

But Armenian defenses are nothing to sneer at:

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Question:

Is it possible the Azeris have a two-pronged strategy? By pushing to see if Nagorno Karabakh will fall they can: A) make the war seem big and dangerous to oil/gas supplies (possibly driving the price up and rescuing their hydrocarbon-based economy) and if it works out that Nagorno Karabakh does fall, all the better.

At the start of the fighting, it seemed that both parts of the strategy could pan out pretty quickly. Now that it's turning into a bit of a quagmire, part A seems the more likely. Even so, is it possible that for a relatively low price they could achieve one of their aims?

 

There's also almost certainly an internal politics dimension but I don't know anything about Azerbaijani politics so I'll leave that one to the more knowledgeable.

It's an interesting theory. It would explain why Russia is sitting on its hands.

[Dawes]

So RPG's are still viable vs modern MBT's?

[bojan]

5 hours ago, Gavin-Phillips said:

This video popped up on my "suggested for you" list and seems to be a small collection (platoon?) of Azerbaijani-owned T-72 tanks.  You get a typical walk-around type of look at them before the crews mount their vehicles and move out of their resting positions.

Azerbaijani T-72's

What model of T-72's are these then?  T-72B perhaps?

Early T-72A (w/o SGDs), T-72A (with SGDs) and T-72B1 (with ERA)

Edited October 6, 2020 by bojan

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Dawes said:

So RPG's are still viable vs modern MBT's?

Modern MBTs still have side hull armor at the level of WW2 tanks, so side hull is highly vulnerable to even relatively old ATWs w/o ERA or heavy side skirts, and even then it only limits engagement angles vs relatively new ones ('80s stuff), since base side armor is so thin (IIRC 51mm on M1, 50-60mm on Leopard 2 and 80mm on T-xx).

Best RPG warheads (PG-7VR and equivalents) will penetrate ~650mm after ERA, so it is very, very hard to armor side hull vs that.

Edited October 6, 2020 by bojan

[JasonJ]

Maybe the only way to armor side armor against late RPGs is by installing hard kill APS or installing a wire cage with a hefty amount of standoff distance along the sides.

[bojan]

Wire cages work only vs certain types of RPG projectiles, by shorting their electrical leads. And even vs those it works in ~50% of cases. Plain standoff is not enough vs "modern" (late '70s+) projectiles considering how thin is the base armor.

Edited October 7, 2020 by bojan

[KV7]

7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

It's an interesting theory. It would explain why Russia is sitting on its hands.

One argument being circulated is that Russia wants to demonstrate to Armenia the costs of it being independent from Russia. And there is also a demonstration effect on other countries that might think about becoming more distant tor close to Russia.

[Simon Tan]

Azeri oil does not even move the meter. They could have Armenians overruning oilfields and it would still be negligible impact.