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Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict


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15 minutes ago, Dawes said:

What type of ATGM does Armenia use?

A whole range of Soviet ATGMs, from the very old Malyutka and Faggot to the modern Kornet-EM. It is possible they also have Milans.

The strikes appear to have been a modern missile, as they were not caught on camera.

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3 hours ago, Adam Peter said:

Sure, they have to overpower the Israeli-modernized Azeri tanks in the vanguard.

Some of their tanks were upgraded by Elbit in a contract signed 10 years ago. The upgrade was very limited and will likely have little to no bearing on the defensive capability of those tanks.

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Video of Azeri TB2 drones picking off Armenian Strela 10 SAM vehicles. These older Soviet SAM systems (SA-8, SA-13) seem to be utterly useless against drones.

 

Edited by Daan
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SA-13 has general problem of not having means of detecting targets other then by Mk.1 eyeball.

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The Azeris are like the Saudis and Emiratis. Oil rich with too much to lose to die over Karabakh. The Armenians are stubborn and LARPing late Soviet era. To get what they want, the Azeris need to go to a very bad place. Which Sultan is offering them. 

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21 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

A whole range of Soviet ATGMs, from the very old Malyutka and Faggot to the modern Kornet-EM. It is possible they also have Milans.

[b]The strikes appear to have been a modern missile, as they were not caught on camera.[/b]

I didn't see any motion at all in the videos, and I've certainly seen a lot of video of similar quality in Syria where the round is plainly visible. Whatever hit those tanks moved pretty fast. Also the hits looked especially energetic for ATGW, but maybe that was just the dusty/sandy conditions of the engagement area. Any chance that we are looking at MBT round impacts?

Edited by Josh
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51 minutes ago, Josh said:

I didn't see any motion at all in the videos, and I've certainly seen a lot of video of similar quality in Syria where the round is plainly visible. Whatever hit those tanks moved pretty fast. Also the hits looked especially energetic for ATGW, but maybe that was just the dusty/sandy conditions of the engagement area. Any chance that we are looking at MBT round impacts?

Yes and no. You can strongly argue for either case. 

On one hand, the videos themselves do suggest an MBT on MBT engagement is likely due to lack of motion or sign of running motors.

On the other, there have been distant observers ready to film the targets upon impact, which suggests an ambush rather than a quick maneuver typical of tanks. Had it been a maneuver via tanks, men would not be able to position themselves on the flanks of the engagement area to film, supported by 2 factors:

Azerbaijan's intel superiority, and Armenia's substantially smaller less advanced army that is not nearly as capable of attrition. They would not risk such losses for a show. Not to mention ATGM crews offer better tactical advantage for less capable armed forces than tanks, when dealing with such tanks on the other side.

It's entirely inconclusive at this point.

 

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IMO, at least some of the hits look like non-atgm HEAT, possibly from ATGs or tanks. My guess is ATGs, dispersion for HEAT fired from T-12 ATG is something insanely good, like 0.13 mils. That makes ~0.4m @ 3000m and 0.54m @ 4000m, so perfectly able to hit a tank sized target if range is good and methodological corrections are done right.

Edited by bojan
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33 minutes ago, bojan said:

IMO, at least some of the hits look like non-atgm HEAT, possibly from ATGs or tanks. My guess is ATGs, dispersion for HEAT fired from T-12 ATG is something insanely good, like 0.13 mils. That makes ~0.4m @ 3000m and 0.54m @ 4000m, so perfectly able to hit a tank sized target if range is good and methodological corrections are done right.

Are they available with tandem warheads?

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1 hour ago, bojan said:

IMO, at least some of the hits look like non-atgm HEAT, possibly from ATGs or tanks. My guess is ATGs, dispersion for HEAT fired from T-12 ATG is something insanely good, like 0.13 mils. That makes ~0.4m @ 3000m and 0.54m @ 4000m, so perfectly able to hit a tank sized target if range is good and methodological corrections are done right.

They are landing some really accurate successive hits for not having a guided round or a MBT style firecontrol. One of those videos seemed to show three tanks being KO'd one right after the other, and while it has edits that make it impossible to figure the time lapse, the position of the vehicles seems to indicate a fast reload cycle or several launchers/guns being fired.

Edited by Josh
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6 minutes ago, Gavin-Phillips said:

I guess the question is...how far will the advancing armoured force go?

 

If you look at the map of the area the terain climbs from 200 m above sea level to over 1.500m as you move west, this is not tank country.

Airpower and determined infantry will win this, the Azeris have the first thanks to the Sultan, the Armenians have the second.

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2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Are they available with tandem warheads?

Not that I know, but with the side hit they will be able to penetrate w/o problem. Or any weakened zone. ERA won't help you vs gun fired HEAT if there is only fec cms of armor behind it.

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1 hour ago, Josh said:

They are landing some really accurate successive hits for not having a guided round or a MBT style firecontrol. One of those videos seemed to show three tanks being KO'd one right after the other, and while it has edits that make it impossible to figure the time lapse, the position of the vehicles seems to indicate a fast reload cycle or several launchers/guns being fired.

Whole battery (6 guns) firing one after another, with targets "distributed" before. One gun fires, if it hits ballistic solution is good and another gun can fire. If first one is miss, second gun uses that to correct own aim. Considering Armenians are on defense they probably have everything premeasured.

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New set of videos

Armenian side

 

 

Dead Azeri soldiers  - believed to be result of Azeri armour column that was intended to overtake key road link between Karabakh and mainland Armenia ambushed by Armenians

 

Azeri TOS filmed from "recieving end" 

 

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1 hour ago, bojan said:

Whole battery (6 guns) firing one after another, with targets "distributed" before. One gun fires, if it hits ballistic solution is good and another gun can fire. If first one is miss, second gun uses that to correct own aim. Considering Armenians are on defense they probably have everything premeasured.

I read that Azeris hit minefields and after rewatching the videos it seems very plausible.

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16 minutes ago, rohala said:

I read that Azeris hit minefields and after rewatching the videos it seems very plausible.

That was my first impression on the first couple of videos.  I couldn't be sure but it looked like a T-72-based ARV was attempting to clear the road?

 

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25 minutes ago, rohala said:

I read that Azeris hit minefields and after rewatching the videos it seems very plausible.

I was thinking of other video.

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My assumption is that the Russians are sympathetic to the Armenians privately and are in favour of the status quo ante. The Russian public sees this as a spat but if it drags on and if the Azeris expand air attacks against infrastructure and the like, I suspect the mood will sour fast. The Azeris simply do not have the capability to take Karabakh quickly and neatly. That window has closed. The western media does not even know where Artsakh is. For now. 

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Things must not be going good for the Azeris. Armenians reported that an Su25 was shot down by a Turkish F16.  If true the need to get directly involved is a sign of weakness on the Azeris military to makes gains.

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