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KV7

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  1. Fair enough, I suppose that could be a useful force multiplier if China ever wants to fight a long way away from their coast. Btu that seems a long way off. It will be interesting to see if they ever create an attack submarine launched ASBM. A naval version of Df-21 is/was under development and was tested some time ago, but there is no platform for it.
  2. Why not just make an anti-ship DF-26 then ? It will be far cheaper than something that can go into LEO.
  3. Why are some seemingly assuming this is an intercontinental anti-ship missile ? What would be the rationale for such a thing ? Likely it is generic technology demonstrator, and if it is on the way to being a weapon what that will be is presumably an ICBM using a maneuvering glide vehicle to evade missile defenses. At a stretch perhaps we are looking at something that could become a real 'space plane' that can be sent onto a particular orbit for recon and then de-orbited at some stage and redeployed (though the cost of launch is going to be so large that you arguably may as well just launch a permanent satellite).
  4. Hypersonic glide vehicles can pull 2 g in a skip phase, i.e. in very thin atmosphere. A few degrees correction isn't a problem.
  5. The CEP can easily get to 15 metres or so using mature technology. If it did indeed 'miss' by 24 miles there was likely a malfunction or the test didn't involve terminal guidance, or the aerodynamic model is miscalibrated. That said there is no rational for an FOBS with a conventional warhead.
  6. As an aside, DF-21 almost certainly has a dual seeker, with radar and optical sensors. The radar seeker is strongly suspected because target hulks had radar signature enhancements fitted, and the optical seeker is suspected because other targets have had ship shaped outlines drawn on them.
  7. Why would there be an X or any other pattern painted anywhere though. I doubt it has optical terminal guidance. It's not like the Df-21 test that hit a carrier shaped concrete slab.
  8. How do they know that it missed it's target by some specific distance ?
  9. In China power is actually very hard to buy, because of the strong focus on development and the fact that private firms cannot swing elections, so 'give us this tax cut or we will run adds against you' isn't possible. There is corruption but rarely of the sort which compromises development, because the senior leadership who face a long term incentive for delivering development and social harmony wont stand for it. In China if some official makes some arrangement with some firm that leads to some sort of poor performance, for example a project that goes way over budget, or some environmental problem, they are liable to be demoted by the senior leadership. In many western democracies there is no corresponding risk, because the electorate is, due to the way that politics is conducted and the role of the MSM etc. rather unresponsive to leadership quality. The caveat here is that during the Zemin era the market reform process was so rapid and undisciplined that there was a considerable amount of corruption, partially because there wasn't a very good idea of what best practice looked like. On this point it is worth revising the arguments of Ha Joon with respect to Korea - you can, if the underlying motivation is there, get a competent civil service that can do industry policy etc., largely though a process of learning by doing. At the start of this process it will be hard to differentiate honest from dishonest mistakes and so corruption is hard to identify, but as the competence and experience improves it is easier.
  10. This essay is extremely illuminating. https://palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the-triumph-and-terror-of-wang-huning/
  11. There are several instances of innovations, though we can question their veracity, independence, and usefulness. Notable examples are in the field of LO countering radar, submarine locating technology, hypersonic glide vehicles, and electromagnetic cold launch of rockets. There are other innovations in military related technology such as advanced metallurgy. DF21 has hit hulks at sea, for example Yuan Wang 4 (which was earlier damaged in a fire). Advances are not at all surprising, given the impressive talent, sufficient resources, and technological base.
  12. Though it appears that the couple made the first move, to their intended target.
  13. The motive seems hard to uncover beyond money, but the payoff was so small, especially considering they would have a quite good combined income. On the other hand If they were motivated by politics I don't see why they would try to give secrets to the Europeans, assuming that is what happened. America bad, France good isn't really a coherent position, though who knows maybe they have some sort of weird centrist cosmopolitanism. Israel perhaps makes more sense here because there are liberal Zionists who think 'defending Israel' is really important. One or both of them could be narcissists who happen to be 'liberal' just because that is a decent way to get attention, and then hatched the plan because 'spy drama' seemed titillating and self aggrandizing.
  14. Another reason for France is that the emails suggest leaving a sign at the 'main building' of the embassy, and the French embassy indeed does have a 'main building' alongside other buildings.
  15. There are problems but the prospects for Chinese growth are very good, because much of the economy is still well away from the productivity frontier, and so there is still ample room for 'catch up' growth, and the economic framework is exceedingly good at facilitating catch up growth (as was that in Japan and south Korea earlier). The demographic issues is important (and I suspect this will mean that it is solved) but it is second order to productivity growth, which if it is near the maximal possible rate (e.g there continues to be huge investments in fixed capital and R&D and these are in relatively high social return projects) then growth will continue to be very rapid even if the demographic situation is adverse. In some ways I am pleased about the demographic crisis because it will likely accelerate reforms which raise living standards and in doing so accelerate the development of an alternative economic and social model. This is required in any case because China is reaching the point where getting richer is no longer a very effective means of increasing welfare - the focus needs to shift towards lowering inequality and improving the quality of social and family life. This shift is prefigured in the latest shift in policy focus, but it has been misunderstood by many western commentators - the new prohibitions on various things (some cosmetic surgery, fan groups, private tutoring etc.) isn't about 'control' but rather reducing the pressures associated with wasteful (positional) social competition.
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