Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[glenn239]

11 hours ago, KV7 said:

One argument being circulated is that Russia wants to demonstrate to Armenia the costs of it being independent from Russia. And there is also a demonstration effect on other countries that might think about becoming more distant tor close to Russia.

Probably more along the lines of the bigger picture being that Russia needs a world where more countries behave like Erdogan, and less countries that behave like Germany, so the last thing Putin should do is get into it militarily with powers that are aligned ideologically with Russian interests over geopolitical chump change.  Let Ankara putter enough and sooner or later it will putter in a more useful direction, like the Aegean.  

[Josh]

Russia wants more countries to simply not work against it. I think is agnostic as to what they do so long as they stay well away from Russia's borders or interests. Which is why it is surprising to me that they are letting the Receptionist dump jihadis and drones into a country near their border. Clearly the air of drones I suspect would just be a free fire exercise for the Russians. I assume they don't want to unduely piss off the Azeries for some reason.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[bojan]

"ANNA battlefield propaganda"

Nice to see whom he supports.

[Nikolas93TS]

I noticed a fair number of usually very useful Twitter conflict analist channels openly cheerishing Azerbaijan battlefield successes for IMO no other reason than Armenia being perceived as Russian ally (which is true, but out of necessity).

It is a complex conflict, but what I find more troubling is that pretty much everyone except maybe France is ignoring another neo-Ottoman excursion of Sultan. 

[bojan]

They prefer Turks over Russians, just like they did historically.

[lucklucky]

Yeah, maybe have to do with whole propaganda op "Russia interference in elections" something completely marginal transformed into something big.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I cant see that has anything to do with it myself.

I think people look at it from the point of view that its either something that impacts on them, or it doesnt. Nobody really gave much of a damn about them last time they were fighting, because its perceived as a long way away from anyone or anything important. I dont personally agree, I just can understand why its not on anyones radar. For the moment its a 'far of country of which we know little', and will remain so till it impacts on someone or something else. Refugees is a fair bet.

The only reason France is involved is Macron, who I think is more interested, just like Tony Blair, in inflating his own self importance, than doing anything actually of any benefit to anyone else. Look at his tour of Beirut.

 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith

[Daan]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The only reason France is involved is Macron, who I think is more interested, just like Tony Blair, in inflating his own self importance, than doing anything actually of any benefit to anyone else. Look at his tour of Beirut.

It is more complicated than that Stuart. First, France has a large Armenian community in exile and its narrative of persecution by Ottoman imperialism has been well established in France. The country was one of the first to make public denial of the early 20th century Armenian genocide at the hand of the Turks liable for criminal prosecution. Currently, we are witnessing another bout of ethnic cleansing of Armenians of their historic lands following renewed pan-Turkic imperialism. 

Second, France-Turkic relations have recently turned very sour over opposing policies regarding Libya (France supporting Al-Haftar) and Turkish expansionism in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish Navy has recently chased off a French frigate intending to enforce the Libyan arms embargo. France has conducted a fire sale of Rafales to Greece, stationed a symbolic number of its AdA Rafales in Crete and sent vessels to the Eastern Mediterranean.

There is of course very little France can do, short of direct intervention and military support. The Armenians would most profit from a system that causes the Israeli and Turkish drones to drop from the sky, but France does not possess that.

The arrival of the Russian state propaganda apparatus in the area is a clear sign Erdogan's actions do not behoove the Kremlin and that radical alterations of the status quo could lead to outright Russian intervention. Putin is of course treading a fine line between the above and punishing the Armenian government for its previous western overtures, as well as not antagonizing Turkey. Armenia has learned that the West cannot be relied on and that it has no real friends.   

[Stuart Galbraith]

Cant you leave me with the luxury of detesting Macron for no particular reason? Why must you deny me, throwing facts at me in this cruel way?

How big is the Armenian community? Id never heard that before, presumably that is a legacy of Frances colonial past in Beirut and Syria?

I dont see how Russia can face down Turkey on this one. Not without having a very good chance of their entire Syrian war effort go for a Burton.

[Daan]

Only the USA and Russia have larger Armenian communities. France's Armenian population is mainly a product of the Armenian genocide, consisting of the offspring of refugees. It should number about half a million of individuals.

Indeed there are some constraints to Russia's response. I think we will see this conflict ending with some limited Azeri territorial gains when Russia and Erdogan impose a ceasefire on the warring parties. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Daan

[Daan]

More TB2 drone footage, slowly picking off vehicles of defenseless Armenian columns:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

10 minutes ago, Daan said:

Only the USA and Russia have larger Armenian communities. France's Armenian population is mainly a product of the Armenian genocide, consisting of the offspring of refugees. It should number about half a million of individuals.

Indeed there are some constraints to Russia's response. I think we will see this conflict ending with some limited Azeri territorial gains when Russia and Erdogan impose a ceasefire on the warring parties. 

I seem to recall there was a fairly large Armenian community in Palestine at one time, for the same reason.

Thanks, thats very interesting.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Azerbaijani President just confirmed on CNN that Turkish F16's are in Azerbaijan at the moment. On the ground he claims, and they were there on Exercise. Claims from Armenia one of them shot down an Armenian Su25 are false.

Erdogan really keeps laying his nuts out on the chopping block, doesnt he?

[Gavin-Phillips]

On 10/6/2020 at 10:11 PM, bojan said:

Early T-72A (w/o SGDs), T-72A (with SGDs) and T-72B1 (with ERA)

Thank you Bojan.  I have a terrible time telling one T-72 variant from another!  How the Brixmis people did it, I'll never know!

[bojan]

28 minutes ago, Gavin-Phillips said:

...How the Brixmis people did it, I'll never know!

Not that great, but they can be excused because of the lack of the source material back then.

[alejandro_]

Early series T-72 Ural. Note IR projector on the right hand side and lack of KMT attachment points in lower hull glacis.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KUqC2EzVHJ0/X35TudSGruI/AAAAAAAAlSg/O6AsHw_S51AVQd9AVK-8xwgXqbeATG1wwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h318/120755344_179983533634769_4776194761252434777_n.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BmfW0C7V0BM/X35TuWA4v3I/AAAAAAAAlSc/Qz5y7vE-sisu5R4eQYnkwTuv6ACHsISbwCLcBGAsYHQ/s880/120738586_179983510301438_664672988703250136_n.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OJOZ-n0X2Oc/X35TuDx3WcI/AAAAAAAAlSY/Pl9_rvKuKro1eVcm20H_TrLqByXOhGAnACLcBGAsYHQ/s723/120616324_179983483634774_6470204234518784648_n.jpg

Edited October 9, 2020 by alejandro_
Format

[lucklucky]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Azerbaijani President just confirmed on CNN that Turkish F16's are in Azerbaijan at the moment. On the ground he claims, and they were there on Exercise. Claims from Armenia one of them shot down an Armenian Su25 are false.

Erdogan really keeps laying his nuts out on the chopping block, doesnt he?

Does not appear anyone will do anything meaningful about it.

[lucklucky]

Armenian diaspora in France

 in France

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Daan said:

 The arrival of the Russian state propaganda apparatus in the area is a clear sign Erdogan's actions do not behoove the Kremlin and that radical alterations of the status quo could lead to outright Russian intervention. Putin is of course treading a fine line between the above and punishing the Armenian government for its previous western overtures, as well as not antagonizing Turkey. Armenia has learned that the West cannot be relied on and that it has no real friends.   

No  idea where you get it from. Until now "official" media channels coverage of this conflict is very balanced, sort of "this is fratricide caused by USSR breakup and external forces involvement", and this media coverage is to some extent going against the grain of general public mood. Russian public is on average still more pro-Armenian despite of growing number of Azeris in Russia.  Of course Russian journalists are not present on Azeri side (it would be strange for them to operate alongside Turkey-provided bashi-bazouk headcutters aka "Syrian freedom fighters") and we can only see frontline reports from Armenian side, but Azeri point of view is well presented, for example both President of Azerbaijan and PM of Armenia were speaking live to Rus public in prime-time TV show on main Rus TV channel in first days of the conflict. By the way President Aliev of Azerbaijan (who is the son of Soviet-time Communist head of Azeri Soviet republic) accused PM of Armenia Pashinyan to be "product of West-sponsored color revolution" and "Soros puppet" - both is true, but when NATO's second most powerful  country head cutters are coming, rethoric about @Russian occupation of Armenia" is not so popular - the same people who were demanding Russian Army bases to be thrown out of Armenia now accuse Russia of betrayal for not willing to fight for Karabakh (note Armenia itself officially do not recognize Karabakh independence even in current situation)

  By the way as soon as you mention Armenian Gov - probably you are aware current Arm Gov is Erevan  urban kids, mix of pro-Western economists and liberal journalists, while previous Gov, with all its downsides of corruption endemic for the region, were  Armenian-Azeri war veterans from Karabakh. Now, as current head od Arm state Pashinyan is sitting in relative safety of his office, his predecessor Robert Kocheryan and other previous Gov top military officials are with fighters in Karabakh (despite they are in theory under criminal investigation and are not allowed to leave Armenia). Guess who will take top political positions when war is over (and it will be sooner or later). https://www.interfax.ru/world/729164

[Stuart Galbraith]

Wondered where I knew the face. He was in the 1974 adaption of Agatha Christies 'And then there were none'.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith

[DavidDCM]

Azeri video. Title translates to "Video of the liberated Talish village of Tartar region" as per Google Translate. [Their choice of words not mine to be clear]

From 1:24 to 1:28 an Elbit Sandcat is visible parked on the meadow to the right. While Azerbaijan is known to have them (they for example paraded them in Baku in 2018), I don't think they were seen in this conflict yet.

The Kornet-E launcher at 0:14 I guess is a captured/abandoned one from the Armenian side. That one is also not often seen, one of the more modern ATGM systems in Armenian service.

[Daan]

And there's a ceasefire after Russian mediation.

Azeri TB2s destroying an Armenian P-18 and 36D6 Tin Shield radar (latter at 39.835286,47.019024):

 

Suicide drone against TELAR at the Armenian Kaghnut S-300 site. Missiles in transport configuration, though.

Suicide drone against the 36D6 radar at the Kaghnut S-300 site:

Video:

 

Edited October 10, 2020 by Daan

[Daan]

19J6 radar from S-300 destroyed by loitering munition:

 

 

The video from the strike on the S300 Telar:

 

Edited October 10, 2020 by Daan

[Daan]

Video allegedly showing Syrian fighters in theater, fighting in their usual ghetto style: