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Daan

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  1. A rather dirty activity:
  2. F-4E release trailer. Heatblur really overdid themselves, some much detail. Look at the airflow over the leading edge slats and the individual hairs on the pilot's forearms. Apparently, there is also a Robin Olds pilot model 😀
  3. 7 minutes of a Russian soldier walking through his comrades' positions in the tree lines between agricultural fields after an artillery bombardment. The number of chewed-up corpses is staggering. WW I must have looked similar. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1785368169109942634 In Telegram: https://t.me/russianocontext/2928
  4. None, that is why I think the point raised in this thread of R-37s against support aircraft is irrelevant. These aircraft are far away from their borders and the Iranians have no recent experience launching such complex, penetrating missions. They may of course train to launch such raids. Some certainly may do so, others may cooperate with the Israelis. The accuracy of the data may be off in heavy EW. Certainly not against many of the important nuclear and missile targets, which seem to be increasingly underground. Israel has resorted to sabotage. Iran does not appear to have any 'allies' in the traditional sense of the word. Just erratic salesmen and oil/gas customers. None of this irrelevant to the overstated role of the Su-35S, however. They would certainly need to do so, as with all sales of complex weapon systems. It does not alter the fact that new aircraft take many years to reach full operational capability. From the attacks in Syria and Iraq, the F-16Is and F-15A to Is are used as carriers of various stand-off weaponry. In permissive environments GBUs and JDAMs (Lebanon) and even unguided ordnance is used (Gaza). Even if alerted on time the few Su-35S on call (perhaps a pair) are unlikely to have a notable impact and may well perish in the attempt. The type is hardly 'next gen' in that area of the world. Russia actually postponed the delivery of part of the systems in the aftermath of its invasion in the Ukraine. The R-37 is very recent weapon system and appears to have been rushed into service, as it did only appear later in the conflict. Short changing their customers is a characteristic of Russian arms deals and their support, see the Indian and Malaysian experience with their Su-30s. Russia only has a radar in NW Syria. The coverage of functioning Syrian radars is unknown. I am not aware of any non-ship borne Chinese radars in the region. Neither do these parties appear to have permanent real time satellite intelligence of this region, which remains the prerogative of the USA. Signal intelligence may be unreliable and spoofed. Even if alerted, how quickly this will lead to Su-35S taking off and flying in the right direction remains to be seen. Your guess is as good as mine. Which party has escalatory dominance is unknown and both seem to prefer to keep the conflict from over cooking. None of this is relevant with respect to the Su-35S however. Mostly symbolism, a bit like the QE class for the UK, the number is too low to make a difference. Iran has concentrated its investments in developing an offensive missile capability and in SAM systems to protect its vulnerable sites.
  5. Have we seen any ability of the IRIAF to conduct complex long range air operations after the 1980s? Especially penetrating missions beyond their direct Iraqi neighbor? The pilots of those days have long since retired or are dead. Have they done any training to be able to conduct such complex operations with their late Vietnam War Memorial Flight of an air force? What are their readiness rates? The IRIAF currently fields longer range jets in the form of various model F-4 and supposedly up to two dozen serviceable F-14As. What have these had for significant impact in Iranian operations over the last 30 years? None at all. Why is that? Furthermore, do we know where Israeli tankers, AEW&C and EW aircraft are positioned and how they are protected by EW and Israeli jets during long range strikes in Syria, Iraq or Iran? I do not, does Iran have a real-time capability of tracking these? When it comes to complex operations in hostile environments the IAF is one of the most sophisticated and experienced air forces in the world and one with a whole array of stand-off weapons to boot. As we have seen last week, some of these are completely unique to the IAF. It will take IRIAF many years to integrate the Su-35 into its force structure and properly train the pilots and maintenance crews. Then, apart from some propaganda videos, what great realistic difference will just two dozen of these aircraft make in an environment that is bristling with modern combat aircraft with late model AIM-120s and Meteors? Given its ongoing conflict (with Su-30s still equipped with R-27s and the R-77s mainly going to the Su-35S) and missile expenditure in the Ukraine, it is doubtful the Russian will have a lot of spare R-37 missiles available for export the next few years and that missile is the main strength of the Su-35S. With such a puny force, how many Su-35S will the IRIAF be able to scramble when the warning of the Israeli attack comes? 2, 1 or none at all? And then to so what? Intercept Israeli aircraft launching their munitions somewhere over western or central Iraq? The Israeli aircraft will be long back in Israeli airspace when the single or pair of Su-35S gets there. Or be fooled by EW and decoy drones cruising at another location? Moreover, the Su-35S air to ground capabilities are limited. Russians don't do targeting pods and have failed to develop a modern arsenal of stand-off precision weapons for fighter-bombers, having to resort to the glorious UMPK contraption to give their obsolete bombs some better range.
  6. The 2000-9 is supposed to have a similar cockpit to the -5, with three small MFDs and a fewer other digitized panels. Certainly, it has a 90s feel to it, but an improvement over the F1. As an aircraft it also represents a massive advance over the F1 in terms of raw performance, sensors, ECM and weaponry. Cockpit of the -5, of a similar generation as (earlier) F-16Cs and F/A-18Cs:
  7. And mainly aimed at the Negev and the Golan Heights. However, it still involved about 300 munitions and it could not have known how many would be intercepted and what damage would result and, therefore, what political effect these would have: posturing or further escalation beyond already being "the first direct attack on Israel".
  8. Except for impacts of ballistic missiles within the perimeter of the large Nevatim airbase, I have not seen any reports of damage elsewhere. Perhaps you could share a link?
  9. Nevertheless, repelling such an attack must have been a costly endeavor for Israel (and the US, France, UK). Extra atmospheric intercept: Missile debris in the Galilee: Missile debris in Jordan:
  10. Nevatim Airbase was hit by apparently up to 7 ballistic missiles, the video shows 5 hits. As it is rather large base with lots of empty real estate, the damage may be limited. These hits have been filmed from other angles as well. I have not seen many other videos showing impacts elsewhere in Israel, neither pictures of any significant damage nor casualty reports. Bit of an embarrassment for Iran.
  11. And in the real world the supposedly starving Gazans are complaining about the food aid:
  12. Despite all these MiG-31BMs and Su-35S, the Ukrainian MiG-29s, Su-27 and Su-24s as well as helicopters are still flying missions near the front lines, generally at low altitude, doing pop-up attacks. The F-16s may well fly similar mission profiles. BMP-3, having taken a hit (HEAT?) to the left side:
  13. Automatic cannon fire against a BTR and its dismounts, seems really effective:
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