Kiev Is Burning

[alejandro_]

2 hours ago, Yama said:

They were supposed to get Damocles pods (which are fitted to some export Sukhois) but I am unsure if the trade ever proceeded: according to net, it was agreed on 2008, just before Georgian war, so...

They have developed their own pods, at least there is one called Sapsan, but again I don't know if it has bee procured. Any way, back in the day it lost out to Damocles, which today is thought as rather outdated.

Sapsan did not go anywhere, just a 1:1 model. Designer ended up suing the company for patent infrignment and so on. Since then another company created T220, which has been exported to Egypt and has been seen in Su-35. I am surprised VKS did not get a few. In Syria the press kept going on about the SVP-24 guidance kit for dumb bombs, which has not been seen in this war. As other have mentioned, Ukrainian SAM defences are the strongest any country has faced in recent times and VKS probably wants to avoid losses. I also wonder how effective they remain considering that Russians should know them pretty well, although some of them have received local upgrades.

[P Lakowski]

2 minutes ago, Perun said:

GREEN SPACE IS UNDECIDED? UKRAINE SEIZED IZYUM HOURS AGO AFTER RUSSIANS FLED.

 

[txtree99]

1 hour ago, bojan said:

Having influence is not the same as:

Fragments found in Ukraine point to AGM-88B model being used, which is same one used in 1999.

And your source is the same twatter post from a pretty clueless Rob Lee that I have questioned you about?

BTW The source was an article in economist.   

[crazyinsane105]

Not sure this has been posted before, found this to be quite interesting 

[crazyinsane105]

46 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Turns out invading a country of that size with 200.000 men wasn't the brightest idea. Something that was noted on this thread in January, already. 

Well, doing a three pronged attack during unfavorable climate conditions is also a dumb idea as well. Even with double the manpower, I couldn’t see this being successful. 

[Dark_Falcon]

39 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Not sure this has been posted before, found this to be quite interesting 

Yes, it's quite good.

[Adam_S]

10 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

I am telling you, it's the Gavins! 

Behold, the mighty international Gavin brigade in action.

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Adam_S
.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Well, doing a three pronged attack during unfavorable climate conditions is also a dumb idea as well. Even with double the manpower, I couldn’t see this being successful. 

I think there were at least four axis of attack, not that I disagree with your post.

[Markus Becker]

9 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Ukraine, the new Border Reivers?

 

And a convenient excuse: "The Ukrainians nicked my ...." when it was actually sold on the black market way back when or otherwise lost in ways that could get you in trouble. 

 

[Colin]

11 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Seems most likely yes.

 

I expect the Ukrainian military is scrambling to get up 2nd line troops to recover and move a lot of this equipment and ammunition westward.

[MiGG0]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

OH wow, that's some high level troll.

 

It's a little Dunkirk-ish.

Some Twitter posters claim that video is actually from Crimea -> so lots or disinformaation going on at the moment.

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by MiGG0

[Adam_S]

I know burning ammo depots are sooo last week, but this one is pretty good.

 

[Adam_S]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

5 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

No, the Kherson offensive is also where Ukraine used up as much of their professional forces as well. They aren’t about to send in rookies riding Polish donated T-72s, a number of which were destroyed 

As the dust settles in the East, seems like many of the guys who were left in charge guarding these various settlements were DNR and LNR. Probably not a whole lot of Russian military units concentrated there, and whoever was there probably left after realizing the militia guys wouldn’t stand much of a chance. Order to withdraw by the Russians actually seems logical. Really no point in losing men in this fight.

Still a massive bloody nose to the Russians though 

As far as the towns, that seems mainly to be true. Though clearly from the abandoned equipment, regular army units are present. Rosgvardia dont use 2S19, though they have used BMP's.

There were also reports the other day, with the Ukrainians claiming they had destroyed an entire Airborne Regiment. Perhaps hyperbole, though looking at the scale of the collapse, perhaps not.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

And a convenient excuse: "The Ukrainians nicked my ...." when it was actually sold on the black market way back when or otherwise lost in ways that could get you in trouble. 

 

The same thing happened with the British Army in the 1980's. During a fire at the Army Depot at Donnington, the Army lost a lot of equipment. So everyquartermaster for a good decade after that announced to any squaddie wanting new kit FOFAD. Feck off, Fire at Donnington.

They really are going to clear the books with this war. Im fully expecting to see T34's and JS2's finally written off the books with this defeat.

[Perun]

[urbanoid]

7 hours ago, Angrybk said:

Is the conventional wisdom now that Ukr sent their rookies up against Kherson, drew a lot of Russian forces away from the Karkhiv area and then went apeshit in Kharkiv with their experienced forces? Seems accurate to me but I was wondering if there was a general consensus yet. 

I wouldn't say they were 'rookies', Russian forces are several times more numerous in the Kherson region than they were in Izium area. They just took the opportunity in the north, they attacked swiflty with what they had on hand there, no reserve units were moved prior to the attack. Does it mean that they said their last word (for now) in Kherson region? Possibly, but... not necessarily. 

[urbanoid]

6 hours ago, P Lakowski said:

NO RUSSIANS ARE JUST PANICKING ALL THE WAY TO THE BOARDER!

No, the Russians have a very methodical withdrawal, everything is in order. It's the Ukrainians that are having a panic attack, that's why they attack so fiercely and, let's not kid ourselves, irresponsibly. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its worth reflecting, if the Ukrainians take Melitopol, they have effectively broken the Russian forces in half. The only supply the forces around Kherson will be getting will be via the Crimean Bridge. And at that point, the Crimean Bridge will be well within HIMARS range.....

If that comes to pass, I would not put money onto the forces in Kherson standing and fighting. Particularly as their ammunition and food drop off to nothing. Even water might be increasingly hard to bring forward.

 

[seahawk]

13 hours ago, glenn239 said:

If Russia were to collapse and agree to Western terms, those terms may well be to cease supplying China with resources.

Why would the West want to do that, as long as China does not invade Taiwan?

[urbanoid]

9 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its worth reflecting, if the Ukrainians take Melitopol, they have effectively broken the Russian forces in half. The only supply the forces around Kherson will be getting will be via the Crimean Bridge. And at that point, the Crimean Bridge will be well within HIMARS range.....

If that comes to pass, I would not put money onto the forces in Kherson standing and fighting. Particularly as their ammunition and food drop off to nothing. Even water might be increasingly hard to bring forward.

 

Taking Melitopol by UKR would be a bigger problem to the Russian units to the east of there/north of the reservoir. They would probably be forced to withdraw, as the Ukrainians would have their supply lines under 'normal' artillery fire. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, good point. So whichever way you look at it, Melitopol, which seems by most accounts likely to be next, might break the Bears back. The only thing the Russians have to throw in would be airpower, and that would likely cost them.

[urbanoid]

Well, the Ukrainians might have a dilemma now, they can either double down and throw reserves on the northern front, or try again in Kherson region. 

Maybe they should do both? 

[RETAC21]

7 hours ago, Yama said:

I don't think that's quite what they did. I believe Kherson offensive was and is a serious attempt. I was referring to quickly mobilized forces, like Territorial Defence units, which were thrown in front of Russian advance very ruthlessly. You may remember the flood of public protests, and sometimes downright desertions from these outfits as they had insufficient equipment, support and training. (although some of the 'outbursts' may have been Russian made propaganda, many were undoubtedly real).

Russia seems to be treating separatist units in somewhat of a same way. I read a rumour that Russian army units left Lyman, and only LPR units remained to defend it.

This is not what happened.

In the first phase of the invasion, Russia launched a multi-pronged attack to seize the main Ukrainian citites (Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa) with blatant disregard for anything but speed, expecting a Crimea 2014 in which boots on the ground would enable a regime change.

if this had worked, Ukraine would have been ruled by a puppet and the near abroad (Belorussia, Kazakhstan et al) would all have lined up in the door of the Kremlin.

It failed because the Russians either chose to ignore or were ignorant of the regular Ukrainian Army deployment and probably dismissive of Ukrainian mobilisation (the Territorial defence), and in some places it worked (notably, in the South)

During this period, the regular army conducted a mobile defence and the territorial forces defended the main cities and hit the Russian supply columns, leading to supply issues and tying up enough forces around secondary cities that the Russians were unable to reach Kiev in force, break into Kharkov or break out of the Kherson bridgehead.

The second phase saw the Russians pulling out of the North to concentrate on the West. This played to Russians strength in artillery and it's in this phase in which the Ukrainians committed TDF to hold the front and where they got pumelled with huge artillery barrages followed by mechanised advances. At this point, Ukrainian was suffering unsustainable losses in terms of manpower at the front, but then the Russian advance culminated after taking Severodonetsk/Lysichansk, and HIMARS started hitting their supply nodes and depots.

The third phase are the Ukrainian counteroffensives, but prior to them, the Ukrainians have deployed newly raised infantry brigades in the West to relieve the Mech brigades and enable them to refit, and the TDF forces have been pulled back to defensive positions in inactive fronts relieving regular forces. 

[RETAC21]

5 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Well, the Ukrainians might have a dilemma now, they can either double down and throw reserves on the northern front, or try again in Kherson region. 

Maybe they should do both? 

Supposedly, the Russians still have a operational reserve around Melitopol that has been ready for commitment to Kherson. The Russians could use it to hold Kherson and the South, and give up terrain in the North until they build a defensive line or they could rush it to the North, to stop the offensive there. We will see.