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About Josh

  • Birthday 01/16/1976

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  1. FIRMS hot spots just mean something is on fire, not that direct fire weapons are being employed. That could easily be artillery related. I'll wait and see; if it is an advance across the river then I'm sure it will come out quite soon. The implication would be that there was a much increased threat to the main rail and road supply line from Belgorod in the area south of Vovchansk. It's been mentioned this is the main supply route for forces in Izium though there are definitely other roads even rail lines that connect farther south and east.
  2. I just don't see how they could have crossed that wide open space across the dam in the south or that swampy looking area in the north, but if so, kudos.
  3. That's a pretty shocking majority from most any legislature. I'm still amazed at the complete turnaround just since February. It seems perfectly justified given current events, but it still seems so weird to have moved so fast.
  4. The T72s would be easier to integrate. Presumably the Czechs could integrate the leo 1s over a longer time frame since they don't have a pressing need. I still doubt those tanks will ever go anywhere though.
  5. It probably is fairly comparable for Poland. For most of the rest of the WP, far less so, but not exactly pleasant. But Russia isn't in a great place to complain about neighboring countries being hostile, which is what I took Roman's reference as implying.
  6. I have hard time believing the Russians would pick that fight ever, let alone when they were already heavily engaged. Definitely going to wait for confirmation on that S300 story.
  7. …and there’s a lot more still alive who were witness to the previous visit of Russia to Eastern Europe.
  8. I don't think there were many hearts and minds to win. I think the breakaway republics were of two minds: those who thought Russian rule wasn't working out, and those who thought the Russians were just using them even though they were being faithful to the cause. I don't think there's a lot of Pro-Russians left, and I suspect they are shrinking in number every day for a couple of reasons-change of belief and high explosives.
  9. I've no doubt Ukrainian artillery can easily target units there even if attempting a crossing is too dangerous. EDIT: crazy that a NASA satellite can track parts of the conflict. The hot spots correspond to this location: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kyiv,+Ukraine,+02000/@50.1044108,36.8205977,1030m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x40d4cf4ee15a4505:0x764931d2170146fe!8m2!3d50.4501!4d30.5234
  10. I'll simply concede the point on Trump; the entire FFZ is pretty much Trump threads. I've not seen anything mentioning a crossing at Staryi Saltiv but it does have a dam with a bridge over it. No idea what its condition is. I would think the river too wide to cross there or at Pechenihy unless the dams themselves were intact and used, and even then I'd hate to be in an advance that everyone could see for miles. I don't think offensives at either location would be a viable choice.
  11. A propellant fire is generally still going to make the tank beyond economical repair either way.
  12. It will be interesting to see what pressure will have to be brought against The Sultan to accept membership.
  13. I believe most of the problem is with the separate propellant charges catching fire/exploding, not the HE content of the ammunition. The latter can happen but is harder to achieve; I think it takes something like a HEAT jet or sabot directly impinging on the shell. Where as the propellant is apparently far easier to ignite. The tanks that don't even have a hull left after the explosion probably represent the actual HE sympathetically detonating, while turrets partially popped or tanks just roman candling out of the hatches are propellant fires. It seems unlikely a fire extinguishing system would be effective against a propellant fire. It's interesting that some tankers are just downloading their ammo carousels to work around the problem. I doubt most tactical situations in Ukraine are high intensity enough that tanks need to carry anything like their full ammo load out; there doesn't seem to be a lot of vehicle on vehicle clashes. I wonder where they store the excess charges and rounds - back at base or on the outside of the vehicle?
  14. Trump had numerous other statements indicating he favored a US pullout. Again, if it is just "virtue signaling", then most of the GOP House was also in on the virtue signaling given the legislation they felt the need to pass.
  15. Trump was pretty vocal about wanting the US to leave NATO even before he won the nomination in 2016. Congress was sufficiently worried about his intention to do so that it passed the NATO Support Act in 2019 with heavy bipartisan support (357-22). So "the narative" was definitely believed by many GOP representatives.
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