Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Alright, lets look at it another way. What use is yet more light infantry, without more supporting arms? Very little. They cant advance, and are still soft and squidgy when it comes to cluster rounds.

This point was covered by Strelkov at least last year. Russian Army is in bad need of light infantry, first and foremost for non-frontline tasks (like guarding the bridges and infrastructure, imposing proper patrols and so on - tasks for the guys with AKs, may be not even in best of health/athletic conditions).  The need for massive numbers of light infantry on frontline is questionable  - last year, one pro-Russian have discribed modern way of war as "two recon platoons fighting each other for the control of the ruins of the village, each supported by heavy artillery", but pro-Russians complain that reserve army is needed to properly rotate frontline troops (as many of mobilized soldiers are now on the second year in trenches without vacations). 

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If they had any smarts, they would employ the extra guys on logistic work, and impress civilian lorries. But of course, they wont. Because that would mean its going to start impacting the rest of the country

So you mean collective efforts of "entire world" have up to now failed to "start impacting the rest of the country"?  Aren't Russian economy in taters and ruble turned into rubble, as we are repeatedly told by top Western officials?  Or doublethink allows to believe both things at the same time?

23 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

........ which endangers the regime. 

"The regime", aka "Putin's Russia" as it was prior to 2022 (or, better to say, prior to 2014) - ultraliberal pro-Western comprador regime based on consumerism - is allready dead. We are now in new waters, nobody knows what will be the result, but it is clearly impossible to go back (while, of course, our officials still dream about some sort of deal with West that would allow them to do it). Seems like i have to procrastenate my procrastenation and write a text on that, but below is video that would help you to understand what was Russian Federation before 2014: It is New Year-2013 night TV show on one of the main (state-controlled) Russian FTA TV channels, super prime time (right after Presidential NY address). Main comedians dancing in are Maxim Galkin (now official foreign agent and, as we now know, Israel citizen) and Vladimir Zelensky (now President of Ukraine), crowd opening champaign is the mix of people who used to be "best people of the country" but now have mostly left Russia (thanks God) - unfortunatelly Vladimir Soloviev (who is also seen among them) is still here. Also, i hope gay-looking dance team got their AKs.....

 

[seahawk]

Light infantry is also needed to stomp out any pro-Ukrainian support in the liberated areas.

[BansheeOne]

3 hours ago, TonyE said:

Oryx and standards is.......well.......😉

There was a new picture of the same vehicle being towed which propably confirms it:

I saw that, but between the darkness, the watermark and the lack of any geographical references it's hard to say what's going on here. As opposed to, say, the images of the CV9040 which was unambiguously on the back of a Russian tank transporter.

[Roman Alymov]

On 11/30/2023 at 4:57 PM, Strannik said:

Arestovich, former Zelensky adviser: Telegram channels close to Zelensky reports that 4,500,000 men in Ukraine & abroad avoid registering for military service. This is half of adult male population. Military units have from 30% to 70% of draft dodgers.

 

Actually in last weeks Arestovich ( who was not only advisor but spokesmen, before that member of Minsk process negotiations team from Kiev side, and who is now on his own run for Presidency and because of that is reasonably staying out of Ukraine, claiming he is in US doing one important meeting after another) have claimed several important things:

1. He de-facto confirmed death toll of pro-Ukrainians is about 300 000 (saying it is "military and civilians", but since even pro-Ukr official number of civilian losses is about 10 000 - by the way less than what Israel have killed in Gaza in few weeks - we could safely assume it is mainly military personnel losses);

2. That by April 4, 2022 Ukraine Army was left with 4(four) "Smerch"MLRS rounds left, de-facto loosing long range artillery capability at that moment;

3. Number of UkrArmy soldiers who desert daily is about 100, making it "brigade a month";

4. From 30% to 70% of soldiers deny the orders to go to battle;

5. That on Minsk-Istambul talks (where he was the head of military affairs delegation from Ukr side) Russian Federation have de-facto capitulated, even agreen to negotiate the status of Crimea (de-facto return of it) and turning down this agreements was major mistake as Ukraine will newer again have such favorable terms;

6. That during "Minsk process" yerars Russia fas fanatically commited to keeping its promises, and that Russian negotiators were unable to understand how it is possible to not follow promises given;

7.  Putin (personally and entire Russian elite ara "collective Putin") is completely Western-minded person, and all he/they wanted to was to be allowed to be junior parthners of the West;

8. West in general and US particular are "in bad shape", and that US politicians are telling him US is in its lowest points since decades ago;

9. Post-WWII "World order" was ruined by West war against Yugoslavia;

10. Russia is now "by massive effort" breaking out of psychological  dependence on West;

11. Combined efforts of Rus and Ukr armies (or even each of this armies alone) are enough to reach any point in Europe, as this are the only two real armies on the continent;

12. No prospects of Ukraine victory now, unless some sort of miracle happens.

  Also he claimed SBU and police in Ukraine are looking for him. Below are two interviews recommended for our seasoned experts in Russian affairs (both are in Russian, but surely they will manage it)

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

32 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Light infantry is also needed to stomp out any pro-Ukrainian support in the liberated areas.

There is no such thing in amount that requires light infantry actions. Central Asian migrants inside Russia (result of ultra liberal approach to economy and law enforcement) is bigger problem. But that is the topic for "Kremlin burning".

Edited December 4, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

Another video of damaged and abandoned Leopard-2 https://t.me/milinfolive/111945

[Roman Alymov]

Tank actions in Avdeevka industrial zone against pro-Ukr pockets of resistance https://t.me/boris_rozhin/105478

[Roman Alymov]

Drone-directed artillery vs. anti-artillery radar

https://t.me/creamy_caprice/3436

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

 

So you mean collective efforts of "entire world" have up to now failed to "start impacting the rest of the country"?  Aren't Russian economy in taters and ruble turned into rubble, as we are repeatedly told by top Western officials? 

None of those who were confidently predicting a swift Russian collapse as soon as the 'war-winning game-changing high-tech unstoppable western wunder-waffen' reached the front will ever admit they 110% believed that was what is going to  happen.  The lack the ability to admit how the totally misread the situation.

 

Let us keep reminding them of the far-off days when the gleefully boasted about  how easy it was going to be and perhaps they can update this 22 month-old prediction?

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by mkenny

[TonyE]

50 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

I saw that, but between the darkness, the watermark and the lack of any geographical references it's hard to say what's going on here. As opposed to, say, the images of the CV9040 which was unambiguously on the back of a Russian tank transporter.

On the original picture of this Bradley there were lots of trees behind it and it was abandoned on the battlefield, on this second picture it is being towed along a road and the picture was taken by a guy seated on the back of the towing vehicle, his feet and the towing arrangement can be seen beneath the watermark (your screen have to be very bright to see it). 

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

There is no such thing in amount that requires light infantry actions. Central Asian migrants inside Russia (result of ultra liberal approach to economy and law enforcement) is bigger problem. But that is the topic for "Kremlin burning".

There I disagree. We see enough collaboration with anti-Russian forces, that light infantry would be a valuable tool to re-install order and catch any spies. Be it through protecting important installations or rounding up gangs of terrorists.

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, seahawk said:

There I disagree. We see enough collaboration with anti-Russian forces, that light infantry would be a valuable tool to re-install order and catch any spies. 

Light infantry can't "re-install order and catch any spies" - it is the task for professionals. The only job mobilized light infantry can do in this sphere is to provide outer ring/fire support for anti-diversion operations.

6 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Be it through protecting important installations or rounding up gangs of terrorists.

Protecting/guarding installations - yes, it is right job for mobilized light infantry (still, in recent example of Israel we have seen how de-facto mobilized infantry force failed to guard even their own bases, despite of having all high-tech tools and being not 40+ yo working class men but young modern tech-savvy rectuits, often girls). Rounding up gangs - highly questionable, gangs/diversion groups prefer to hide not in forests but in populated areas, and using untrained infantry against them may result in unnecesarry losses both among local population (if they shoot any movement) or troops (if they try to detain armed terrorists, not shoot them).

[sunday]

On 12/1/2023 at 4:23 PM, glenn239 said:

Surely repairing a rail tunnel will be only a few weeks at most.

Traffic was restored in December, 2nd: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6378865

On 12/1/2023 at 9:02 PM, Roman Alymov said:

This tunnel was only opened in 2003, before that since 1985 bypass railway was used (this bypass is still in use). By the way i do not understand why BAM is called "road to China" as this railroad was constructed, among other reasons, to be at a safe distance from China border in case of USSR/China war....

Problem with the bypass, according to the wikipedia article, could be the speed allowed there, 20 km/h, and the time needed to cross it, two and a half hours instead of the 15 minutes through the tunnel, thus reducing the capacity of the line. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 hours ago, seahawk said:

Light infantry is also needed to stomp out any pro-Ukrainian support in the liberated areas.

Dirlewanger Brigade units you mean?

 

[Roman Alymov]

Leopard 1 used by pro-Ukrainains to recover Ford Transit minivan from mud https://t.me/milinfolive/111952

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, sunday said:

Problem with the bypass, according to the wikipedia article, could be the speed allowed there, 20 km/h, and the time needed to cross it, two and a half hours instead of the 15 minutes through the tunnel, thus reducing the capacity of the line. 

No doubt any damage to the line is reducing its capacity, and this very complex 15-km tunnel was constructed for a good reason. But still the line have functioned for many years without this tunnel at all.

[Roman Alymov]

Pro-Ukr video illustrating realities of trench digging in frost conditions (and it is just the start of winter) https://t.me/info_zp/53463

[mandeb48]

When it rains in the wet:

https://lostarmour.info/news/fpv_23_12_03_01_sudoplatov

Edited December 4, 2023 by mandeb48

[jmsaari]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Pro-Ukr video illustrating realities of trench digging in frost conditions (and it is just the start of winter) https://t.me/info_zp/53463

Shaped charge to puncture through frozen layer, enlarge the hole a bit manually with steel bar if need be, and a few kilos of ANFO below the frost layer in the hole is the only sensible way to dig trenches in frozen ground...

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

Shaped charge to puncture through frozen layer, enlarge the hole a bit manually with steel bar if need be, and a few kilos of ANFO below the frost layer in the hole is the only sensible way to dig trenches in frozen ground...

 

[Roman Alymov]

ATGMs vs. (ruins of) water tower https://t.me/c/1688853451/135688

[Strannik]

I recall someone was proclaiming the small beachhead on the left side of Dnieper to be valuable for ZSU - here is a BBC account of some soldier's stories.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Strannik

[MiGG0]

49 minutes ago, Strannik said:

I recall someone was proclaiming the small beachhead on the left side of Dnieper to be valuable for ZSU - here is a BBC account of some soldier's stories.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

 

I think it was common opinion here that UKR crossing is just feint to draw RUS forces to act against it. Pure logic just says that UKR dont have any better changes to supply it forces otherside than RUS had. And RUS had lot larger ”bridgehead” before they withdrew.

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, MiGG0 said:

I think it was common opinion here that UKR crossing is just feint to draw RUS forces to act against it. Pure logic just says that UKR dont have any better changes to supply it forces otherside than RUS had. And RUS had lot larger ”bridgehead” before they withdrew.

The problem of Krynki is, pro-Ukr artillery and drone operators on high industrial  right bank of Dniper got much more places to hide in buildings than pro-Russian artillery (and forces in general) on relatively low, fkat and agrarian left bank. So pro-Rus forces are taking disproportinate losses - so it is stalemate: pro-Ukrainians can't move further from Krynki (the place their speedbats could relativelt safely reach  by Konka river)  while pro-Russians can't push them into the river.

    Video of pro-Ukr boat hit by unguided(!) 152mm shell on full speed - this is relatively rare case, most of boats go through safely https://t.me/boris_rozhin/105270

[glenn239]

On 12/2/2023 at 12:37 PM, Josh said:

HIMARS was quite decisive. I don’t think it would be over hyped to say it had a strategic level effect - I don’t think either the Kharkiv or Kherson offensives could have occurred without them. I think the USAF would bring a lot more volume and a much deeper reach than a couple dozen artillery systems.

Agreed that HIMARS has proven the most effective thing so far sent.  It has not been decisive, nor is there reason to suppose the two offensives you mention were dependent for their success upon it.   In terms of the USAF, we have yet to even establish that it can replace the already lost Ukrainian early war heavy artillery capability of around 7,000 shells a day, let alone move the needle to the level of ejecting Russia from Donbas.

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Su-57 is currently outnumbered nearly 100:1 by NATO fifth generation aircraft and there is little prospect of that situation improving. If they want to try to fly clear across Poland of Scandinavia, that will save NATO some time and trouble finding them on their side of the border.

Google says the total number of F-35's built is about 1,000, the total of F-22's produced is about 190.  Production continues at a rate of about 160 a year, so maybe about 2,000 total jets towards the end of the decade vs. maybe about 100 Russian jets, about a 20 to 1 ratio.  However, most of the USAF 5th Gen fighters will be pinned facing the Chinese air force, so the Russian jet will be outnumbered maybe about 5:1 by Western 5th Gen aircraft.  But this assumes no Chinese reinforcements are to be had.  If China comes in, then it'll be more like a 1:1 ratio.  So, your estimate is about two orders of magnitude off from the actual worst case NATO scenario.

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Ok, when the S70 enters full rate production, you have your long range stealth UAV. I think you’ll be waiting awhile.

Looks like maybe about 100 in service by the end of the decade, serial production starting 2024 or 2025.  

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If the MiGs loiter around running a racetrack like they likely are now, yeah I think they will be fired upon before they know they are even being tracked.

Not sure how close an F-22 can get to the front lines before the LF radars start sniffing it out its general location.  100 miles maybe?  Whatever the answer is, the MIG-31's will be positioned far enough behind the LF network to not be surprised.

 

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If they race in and out again, I expect they can survive a lot longer, but they aren’t going to be providing a persistent CAP or significantly expanding ground based radar coverage.

Who said anything about 'persistent CAP'?  I didn't, nor should you unless this is that Scooby-Doo movie we talked about.

The MIG-31 is an interceptor, an ambush predator.  Against Ukraine, it does CAP patrols because the few Ukrainian jets surviving fly so rarely that the Russians have to have standing patrols on hand to hope to do business against the 1 or 3 sorties they risk a day.  What we are talking about is a NATO air campaign of thousands of sorties a day all along a 1,500km front.  This huge total of sorties done from dozens of bases all over Europe being watched by thousands of pro-Russian spies with cell phones, hundreds of civilian radars, all sorts of resources pulling in data to predict where and when NATO strikes will hit.    I think the A-50's and MIG-31's will be coming up suddenly, by surprise, light up, and then in conjunction with the 40N6's, they will shoot down anything in the kill box 250 miles deep.  Then, just as fast, they will retreat at high speed.  Maybe the F-22's are in a position to do something about that.  Maybe they aren't, but the way that the strikes will occur will not be from standing CAP patrols.

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I think NATO airpower can destroy Russian logistics pretty easily. Actually bombing troops probably wouldn’t have to happen on a particularly large scale. The goal isn’t to invade Russia, the goal is to put them on there side of the border and keep them there.

I think that NATO has no chance of interdicting Russian logistics to the level that Ukraine can then eject Russian troops from Donbas.  Reach the Black Sea?  Sure.  Retake Crimea?  Maybe.  

 

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Ah, I think this conversation is a big misunderstanding. I am discussing a hypothetical Russia-NATO conflict post Ukraine war involving Russia invading a NATO country. I don’t believe NATO will take any military action against Russia under any other circumstances. 

 You are proposing a hypothetical scenario where the Russians will initiate a war with NATO, but at the same time, you are somehow assuming the Russians will not be prepared for a war with NATO that they themselves just initiated.  This is muddled, contradictory thinking.  If the Russians initiate a war with NATO it will be, as I said, after years of feverish preparations to allow their drone and missile forces to neutralize NATO airpower.   If the Russians are at war and are unprepared, then it will be because NATO, not Russia, initiated the conflict.  In which case a massive Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean intervention to bolster Russia will happen.