Kiev Is Burning

[lucklucky]

Now Russia going to loose...

[Yama]

Meanwhile, asylum-seekers who tried to cross border to Finland, but are now blocked as border is closed, are being recruited to serve at the front:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67647379

"The documents offering a job which were presented by officials to the Somali and others were in Russian, which none of the group could understand. He and others assumed they would be given army-related work inside Russia, he said.

"We were not given the contract documents and [they] were not even shown properly. We asked [what the jobs will be] but they told us that it is simple and good," he told the BBC.

Fearing deportation to Somalia, where he said his life had been threatened several times by al-Shabab militants, he signed the offer, along with five other Somalis, five men from Arab countries and a Cuban national. They were put on a bus and were driven south."

[crazyinsane105]

32 minutes ago, Yama said:

Meanwhile, asylum-seekers who tried to cross border to Finland, but are now blocked as border is closed, are being recruited to serve at the front:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67647379

"The documents offering a job which were presented by officials to the Somali and others were in Russian, which none of the group could understand. He and others assumed they would be given army-related work inside Russia, he said.

"We were not given the contract documents and [they] were not even shown properly. We asked [what the jobs will be] but they told us that it is simple and good," he told the BBC.

Fearing deportation to Somalia, where he said his life had been threatened several times by al-Shabab militants, he signed the offer, along with five other Somalis, five men from Arab countries and a Cuban national. They were put on a bus and were driven south."

Geez, I have no idea what is worse. Al Shabab wraith or the most high intensity war in Europe since WWII…just crappy options all around 

Edited December 8, 2023 by crazyinsane105

[Stefan Kotsch]

As far as I'm concerned, the Russians should fill the entire army with Africans. After all, these are the best trained and best motivated soldiers.

🤡

[Stuart Galbraith]

I understand they are hiring Nepalese now. Probably figured because they are the best soldiers in the world, they cant go wrong.

What they failed to understand is they are getting all the ones we rejected. Good luck with that.

[Stefan Kotsch]

Nepal has already intervened because of this.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, just one more example of Russian not willing to pay the human costs of the war. They will be hiring Umpa Lumpas next.

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I understand they are hiring Nepalese now. Probably figured because they are the best soldiers in the world, they cant go wrong.

What they failed to understand is they are getting all the ones we rejected. Good luck with that.

  I'm sorry but you are again failing to understand local realities of Russia: There is a lot of young foreigners in Russia (for example foreign students - or former students who fell out of Univercity for some reason and are staying in Russia competing with Central Asians for simple jobs like food delivery curier or cab driver or person spreading promo leaflets). Salary Russian Army is paying now (about x2 or x3 the amount food delivery  courier could make in Moscow) is quite attractive for them (since not all of them are in Moscow - many are in regional cities where salaries are lower) is quite attractive for them, especially taking into account prospects of fast-track Russian citizenship. So not surprising some of them volunteer to Army, while others are trying to make a private business by going to their home countries (where job market is not exactly booming) to convince locals  to join (probably, for some share of their initial salary/entrence bonus). Is it good or bad - no idea, i doubt it is of any significance actually since their numbers are not great, no prospects of having "African division" or "Napalese brigade". 

     By the way it seems to be the same on pro-Ukr side: on Dec 6, 2023 the guy described as "dantist from ShriLanka" (probably, former medical student of one of univercities in Ukraine) was KIA in Avdeevka https://t.me/boris_rozhin/105881

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thats all fine. The detail you dont mention, you have to survive to collect, and from what ive read, the Army isnt that fond of paying what they owe anyway.

Good, one more dead dentist is a good day humankind.

[Roman Alymov]

11 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Thats all fine. The detail you dont mention, you have to survive to collect, and from what ive read, the Army isnt that fond of paying what they owe anyway.

Well, the amount of money Russia is paying to KIA families (about RUR 12mln) is not huge but still significant enough to support family in low-cost of living country, and people are risking their lifes trying to sneak into Europe or US for less. No idea what is more dangerous - attempt to use human trafficing services or joining Army..... Anyway, we know for sure that some foreigners do join, but number of them is not huge.

[Roman Alymov]

By the way interesting story i have missed: 

"Gazprom has put into operation the third technological line of the Amur Gas Processing Plant (in total, six lines are provided at the plant).

"It was noted that three production lines are currently operating at the Amur Gas Processing Plant and ensure the production of marketable products," the company said in a statement.

The construction of the plant continues. The current status of the project is 90.84%. On the fourth technological line, preparations are underway for the start of commissioning, on the fifth and sixth lines— construction and installation work is underway.

The Amur gas Processing Plant is located near the city of Svobodny in the Amur region. It will become one of the largest natural gas processing enterprises in the world. The design capacity of the plant is 42 billion cubic meters of gas per year. It consists of six lines of 7 billion cubic meters of raw gas per year each. The commissioning of the plant's lines is synchronized with the growth of gas transportation volumes through the Power of Siberia.

During the commissioning work on the equipment designed and supplied by the German company Linde, the same gas leaks occurred with a fire: on the second technological line in October 2021, on the first in January 2022. Three months after the second fire, in March Linde announced the suspension of projects in Russia.

At the end of the summer of 2023, Gazprom put into operation two lines: No. 1 (restored after a fire) and No. 3 (new). Now the company has announced the launch of line No. 2, which was most severely damaged by fire." (https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/156018/)

     So it turned out that back inm late 2021-early 2022 (before "big war" in Ukraine) it was de-facto major diversion by Western special services on strategic NG processing plant that was supposed to work mostly for China market. Nord Stream was not the first.....

What is Amur Gas Processing Plant (by Nov 2023)

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

On 12/6/2023 at 6:53 PM, Josh said:

I think it would be a hell of a leap of faith to assume the Chinese are going to patch Russian tactical units into their data network. 

 Presumably the Americans have tackled a similar problem dealing with the American and NATO data, surveillance and communications networks.  On one hand, a NATO-wide system, on the other, a separate and exclusively American network.  

Quote

So all the US has to do is produce a Lancet equivalent and it can devastate Chinese regional air superiority as well then.

Yes, the end game seems to suggest that the conditions that made the US a global superpower were unique to a period of time now moving into the past, unlikely to endure for too much longer.  We're entering a multipolar era in which the Great Powers will need to cooperate.  If a war broke out where the Chinese and Americans destroyed each others' air forces and navies, the end of that would be the Americans running the Americas and the Chinese running Asia.  Sounds like a better bargain for the Chinese than the Americans.

Quote

This kind of begs the question why aren’t the Russians saving up their drones for one large attack now? They have been stockpiling all summer, or at least they could have been. It seems likely there is some kind of bottleneck in either production or in launch equipment.

There has to be all sorts of problems with expanding drone production.   Presumably nothing that can't be solved in time though. 

Quote

My question did not concern Chinese involvement. I am merely asking if you think the U.S. can use drones to destroy Chinese airpower as easily as Russia can use them to destroy  NATO air power? The U.S. if anything has a couple of orders of magnitude more UAV production capacity than Russia and has already mastered all of the tech on your wish list.

No, it would not be as easy for the US to destroy Chinese air force equipment in a Sino-US war as it would for Russia to destroy NATO air force equipment operating in the European war scenario you outline.

Quote

An SDB II is a trimode terminal seeker with autonomous target recognition, GPS, and link 16. There are already a couple thousand in service. If the U.S. just scales it up to include a motor and piston engine good for a thousand mile trip and makes ten thousand of them and bases them throughout the first island chain, is that the end of the PLAAF?

The Chinese answer to the threat you are talking about would be concealment and dispersal.  You want NATO to be concentrated and exposed for high tempo operations close to the battle front, but also want NATO aircraft dispersed and concealed to protect themselves from drone and missile attacks.  Well, tough shit, they can't have their cake and eat it too.  They will have to either concentrate - and take huge losses from drones and missiles, or conceal and disperse - and accept a much reduced tempo of operations.
 

Quote

It looks like an effort with a lot of breadth but not necessarily much depth. Presumably if this effort bears fruit in mass, we will see it on the battlefield.

The costs per unit suggest that inventories in the hundreds of thousands of drones should be achievable.   200,000 drones at 25,000 each - is that 5 billion dollars on your calculator?  5 billion is chump change, right?

Quote

A fighter can still guide a JDAM to a target using an INS mode (with decreased accuracy) and there’s plenty of weapons with terminal seekers. But slow moving UAVs are going to generate a lot of drift over hundreds or even thousands of miles. What if the Russian UAV revolution fails overnight as a result of satellite navigation interference?

Sure, just program in the launch coordinates from a plane that doesn't exactly know where it is to a bomb that doesn't know exactly where it is going.  :^)

Anyways, if what you say happens then the USAF will lose about 80%+ of its ground attack lethality and the Russians will lose their deeper ranged Glonass guided drones.  Sounds like a trade the Russians would take any day of the year, as it is the Americans, not they, that will have overinvested in air force.

Quote

Presumably they can use the civilian signal, if it’s not jammed or spoofed.

I think that target recognition and navigation problems will be resolved simultaneously for drones going forward.  After all, if your drone is smart enough to recognize an aircraft camouflaged in trees by the side of the road, then it's probably also smart enough to navigate across a continent using the roads and other land features too, right?

Edited December 8, 2023 by glenn239

[Strannik]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well, the amount of money Russia is paying to KIA families (about RUR 12mln) is not huge but still significant enough to support family in low-cost of living country, and people are risking their lifes trying to sneak into Europe or US for less. No idea what is more dangerous - attempt to use human trafficing services or joining Army..... Anyway, we know for sure that some foreigners do join, but number of them is not huge.

US military death benefit is 100k tax free - https://myarmybenefits.us.army.mil/Benefit-Library/Federal-Benefits/Death-Gratuity-?serv=122  That's really a pittance nowadays, do chime in if there are some other form of assistance...

Russian 12 mln rubles would be ~ $130k and considering cost of life diff. is HUGE (three times at least, unless living in Moscow/St.Pete) in comparison of the US one.

[BansheeOne]

On 9/15/2023 at 9:09 PM, BansheeOne said:

I missed the 7 September update of IFW Kiel's Ukraine Support Tracker, now tracking to the end of July. The biggest change is that with recent multi-year commitments, the EU institutions have for the first time overtaken the US in total aid pledged at 84.8 vs. 69.5 billion dollar, followed by Germany at 20.9 and the UK at 13.8. The US however remains by far the biggest donor of military aid at 42.1 billion, followed by Germany at 17.1 and the UK at 6.6 billion.

Most notable among other nations is Norway, which is now in fourth place in either list above with 7.2 and 3.7 billion respectively. They actually top the list of aid as a share of GDP at 1.71 percent, ahead of the long-time leaders from the Baltic States and Poland if you don't count the latters' EU contributions and refugee cost. Including EU share, Lithuania is still on top at 1.82, followed by Estonia at 1.77, but then it's Norway, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia before we come to Poland at 1.26. I suspect the ongoing deliveries of Leopard 1 and 2 etc. have propelled the Nordic countries ahead relative to their GDP. The biggest total donors remain in midfield here, with Germany at 0.99, the UK at 0.49, and the US at 0.33.

If we however include refugee cost, too, Poland comes out on top at a total 3.77 percent with its Baltic neighbors once more following at 2.90 for Estonia, 2.65 for Latvia, and 2.54 for Lithuania. Germany also grows to 1.35, while not much changes for the UK (to 0.53) and US (essentially nothing). With all the add-ons expressed in dollar, the US still is biggest individual total supporter with its 69.5 billion, followed by Germany with 52.3, Poland with 23.5, and the UK with 14.9 billion.

Fresh update. Very little has changed at the top, at all, a sign of the domestic quarreling about additional commitments both in the EU institutions (remaining at 84.9 bn Euro total) and the US (rather small increase to 71.4 bn). Biggest individual donor nations in total remain the US, Germany, and UK.

Some shares of GDP have actually shrunk somewhat, probably because GDPs have risen faster than commitments: without EU contributions, Norway remains on top, but now with 1.60 rather than 1.71 percent. For Germany it's down from 0.99 to 0.95 including EU share, UK 0.49 to 0.45, US 0.33 to 0.32. 

What has increased are refugee cost. Including those and EU contributions, total GDP share is now up from 1.35 to 1.41 percent for Germany, for example, though for Poland at the overall top of the list it has slightly dropped from 3.77 to 3.64.

Edited December 9, 2023 by BansheeOne

[Yama]

HS interview about 'Sasha' who hails from Russian-occupied Ukraine, fled to Finland and has returned few times to his home, via Russia (it was not specified whether 'Sasha' was man or woman, I'm boldly assuming male as he seemed somewhat familiar with military matters). It was interesting view to life in occupied regions. Article was behind paywall, but from memory:

-Although Russia nominally annexed the new regions, border controls are tight, and without critical documents, and having your fingerprints taken, you can't get through. In Donetsk/Luhansk republics, bribes are often only way to get things moving.

-Sasha's home is about 40km from the frontlines, apparently somewhere in Zaporožžia region. During spring, he witnessed enormous amount of concrete trucks driving north, and also trucks carrying dragon teeth. Russians even tore out concrete slabs from canals to make fortifications. Fields were mined, he knows of at least one harvester machine hitting an AT mine.

-When Ukrainian counterattack began, Russian artillery began firing almost non-stop. Occasionally Ukrainians would fire a missile at Russian artillery positions, making fire pause for few hours.

-Plenty of Russian air activity. Su-25's flew over in pairs, so did Ka-52's, sometimes he saw fighter-bombers in high altitude, probably dropping glide bombs. Russian aircraft would always return, he never witnessed one missing.

-Ukrainian cruise missiles also flew over regularly. Sometimes he saw Russians shoot them down.

(as a side note, bit unclear to me if he really saw all of it personally, or if he just recounted other people's stories).

-About half of the people in his home region remain. Some of those who initially fled, have returned. Often they find their home taken over by Russian soldiers, who prefer to stay in civilian homesteads, rather than bases or barracks, which are easy pickings for HIMARS. Often this also means that the house is looted, he saw Russians load people's property in trucks.

-Melitopol and Mariupol are heavily renovated, as 'display windows' for Russian rule. Lots of Central Asian construction workers around. Some of the "new" buildings are just a facade though, with empty apartments lacking windows inside.

-Russian propaganda is pervasive, concentrating around how much better life is compared to "Ukrainian occupation" as it's now called in schoolbooks (equating it to Baltic States etc). Russian paid salaries are high, even higher than in Russia proper. Army volunteers are paid really well, and some locals have signed up.

-with carrot comes the stick, and people must be careful with what they say. "Sometimes people just disappear". His relative was arrested for two weeks over a comment made in Facebook, and beaten. In interrogations, critical question is "Do you support the Special Military Operation?" and you must always answer 'yes'.

-Ukrainian language is theoretically available in education, but nobody dares to choose it.

-to Sasha's dismay, Russian efforts have worked to some degree, and some people have began to accept Russian rule. There is also certain resignation around, as people are giving up hope that Ukraine could return.

-Sasha is uncertain whether he will permanently return to his home - he likes Finland otherwise, but climate doesn't suit him.

[Strannik]

On 12/6/2023 at 2:40 PM, Strannik said:

So this makes me think that US admin was/is afraid of Rus going nuc and not by not responding (and I think all of you who think that US would military respond are living in another world) to that looking weak and opening NATO 5th article doubts.  No other logical explanation, short of exotic ones.

The CSIS report on the risks of nuclear escalation and use in Ukraine.

https://features.csis.org/deter-and-divide-russia-nuclear-rhetoric/index.html

While musing that A collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine appears unlikely, and there is no reason to expect nuclear escalation in the near future. 

nevertheless the report suggests to continue the policy of threatening the consequences:

Western leaders have consistently emphasized that Russian nuclear use will be met with severe consequences. However, they have not specified the exact nature of the response. Maintaining the credibility of this signal will require consultation and coordination among NATO allies on messaging and NATO’s nuclear mission.

Which of course bears the question as to if there is a belief that "severe consequences" would be realistic (ie non-escalatory at least in dramatic way) after Russia used nuclear weapons, why it is not an option today?

Edited December 9, 2023 by Strannik

[JWB]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-cracks-down-on-draft-dodging-as-it-struggles-to-find-troops/ar-AA1lboL2

[Murph]

[seahawk]

Somebody has to pay the yacht. and the mansion on the Costa del Sol.

[Josh]

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

 Presumably the Americans have tackled a similar problem dealing with the American and NATO data, surveillance and communications networks.  On one hand, a NATO-wide system, on the other, a separate and exclusively American network.

NATO integration goes back most of a century, and generally to US created/mandated standards.

 

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Yes, the end game seems to suggest that the conditions that made the US a global superpower were unique to a period of time now moving into the past, unlikely to endure for too much longer.  We're entering a multipolar era in which the Great Powers will need to cooperate.  If a war broke out where the Chinese and Americans destroyed each others' air forces and navies, the end of that would be the Americans running the Americas and the Chinese running Asia.  Sounds like a better bargain for the Chinese than the Americans.

If a war broke out between China and the US, it is likely even a Chinese win still leaves the US in control of every body of water outside the second island chain. The US has bases and troops or advisors in 120+ countries. China can only aspire to regional hegemony in the medium term.

 

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Chinese answer to the threat you are talking about would be concealment and dispersal.  You want NATO to be concentrated and exposed for high tempo operations close to the battle front, but also want NATO aircraft dispersed and concealed to protect themselves from drone and missile attacks.  Well, tough shit, they can't have their cake and eat it too.  They will have to either concentrate - and take huge losses from drones and missiles, or conceal and disperse - and accept a much reduced tempo of operations.

Why would NATO have to concentrate and Chinese would not? NATO has an order of magnitude or two greater in flight refueling platforms than the PLA-AF; it can disperse and operate its tankers at long ranges quite easily. China on the other hand would be far more reliant on its tactical aircraft having to actually be within the combat radius of its mission.

 

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Sure, just program in the launch coordinates from a plane that doesn't exactly know where it is to a bomb that doesn't know exactly where it is going.  :^)

You seem to be under the misguided impression that aircraft had no concept of their own location before GPS was invented. Every single tactical fighter in US inventory has an inertial guidance system far more accurate and redundant than JDAM, and I believe most every aircraft shelter and parking space in NATO maintains an exact location printed on it such that the INS can spin up and know its exact starting point before a mission. Drift will make that location information less accurate over the course of a mission, but your assertion that a plane doesn't know where it is does not follow. Furthermore, neither the bomb nor the aircraft need to know exactly where they are: they just need to know the exact position of the target relative to the aircraft. So long as the launching aircraft can exactly measure the azimuth, bearing, and range to the target it via radar or laser, the bomb can be given any starting or finishing navigation information that closes that distance and be as accurate as if the plane precisely fixed itself.

 

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Anyways, if what you say happens then the USAF will lose about 80%+ of its ground attack lethality and the Russians will lose their deeper ranged Glonass guided drones.  Sounds like a trade the Russians would take any day of the year, as it is the Americans, not they, that will have overinvested in air force.

As I've noted, US aircraft likely can still drop weapons with degraded accuracy if they can directly detect their target. It is also possible, and even likely, that US aircraft can fix their position via radar mapping. This was literally something F-111Fs and new build AGM-86s could do: their attack radar/TERCOM radar identified geographical features and matched them to existing radar maps, and the range information to those features provide exact navigation. I have a hard time believing an AESA radar couldn't SAR map the area in front of it and not precisely know where in the world it is; a detailed ground map of the entire world wouldn't fill a commercial hard drive. Expendable drones are not going to have the same level of redundancies an aircraft will in terms of sensors, INS, and datalinks. As I noted, the US is in the process of orbiting hundreds of satellites in LEO for a new communications capability that will also function as a back up PNT capability.

 

23 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I think that target recognition and navigation problems will be resolved simultaneously for drones going forward.  After all, if your drone is smart enough to recognize an aircraft camouflaged in trees by the side of the road, then it's probably also smart enough to navigate across a continent using the roads and other land features too, right?

So wait, Russian UAVs will always know where they are and NATO aircraft will not? You don't see any contradiction there?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

NATO integration goes back most of a century, and generally to US created/mandated standards.

Then the Chinese will be aware of those standards and technical firewalls even as they stole the programming from your servers.  They can and will set up identic procedures in order to provide satellite and communications services to their own allies.  The Russians and other allies will, of course, maintain their own network but all Chinese allies will benefit immensely from expanded cooperation.   You are assuming NATO will have some sort of 1991 security cordon over its bases.  It will not.  Every move it makes, at every airbase, every port, every rail yard, will be observed by neutral powers and neutral agents that can and will disseminate that information as they bloody well wish.

Quote

If a war broke out between China and the US, it is likely even a Chinese win still leaves the US in control of every body of water outside the second island chain. The US has bases and troops or advisors in 120+ countries. China can only aspire to regional hegemony in the medium term.

I think Americans will find it much easier to start a war with China than to finish one.    You see your navy as leverage, but I do not.  Your navy is actually an expensive, irreplaceable valuable and delicate toy that Washington will do anything to avoid being broken.  About the fourth US carrier that is hunted down and sunk to catchy heavy metal music videos on the internet, Washington will rapidly lose its stomach to risk losing the remaining eight.  It's that simple.   

Quote

Why would NATO have to concentrate and Chinese would not? NATO has an order of magnitude or two greater in flight refueling platforms than the PLA-AF; it can disperse and operate its tankers at long ranges quite easily. China on the other hand would be far more reliant on its tactical aircraft having to actually be within the combat radius of its mission.

The Chinese would not have to expose themselves to the same degree because maintaining a naval blockade and providing air defense requires fewer sorties each day than the battlefield domination mission you outline.  It's a question of exposure, sorties per day.  The NATO aircraft will need to expose themselves in large numbers to do their job, the Chinese can get away with far fewer sorties.

In terms of tankers and refueling, I doubt this type of high-value asset will prove particularly survivable in a stealth on stealth pier conflict.  

Quote

You seem to be under the misguided impression that aircraft had no concept of their own location before GPS was invented. Every single tactical fighter in US inventory has an inertial guidance system far more accurate and redundant than JDAM

My assumption is that if neither the aircraft nor the bomb has access to GPS that this will degrade accuracy significantly.  I have no idea on exact numbers, but for demonstration purposes if with GPS the JDAMS lands within 5 meters of the target, then maybe without its within 50 meters type idea.

Quote

So wait, Russian UAVs will always know where they are and NATO aircraft will not? You don't see any contradiction there?

None once you factor in that for everyone one aircraft that knows its position, there will be a thousand drones.

[Josh]

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Then the Chinese will be aware of those standards and technical firewalls even as they stole the programming from your servers.  They can and will set up identic procedures in order to provide satellite and communications services to their own allies.  The Russians and other allies will, of course, maintain their own network but all Chinese allies will benefit immensely from expanded cooperation.   You are assuming NATO will have some sort of 1991 security cordon over its bases.  It will not.  Every move it makes, at every airbase, every port, every rail yard, will be observed by neutral powers and neutral agents that can and will disseminate that information as they bloody well wish.

Yes, China knows everything, NATO knows nothing. Rinse repeat. And China will share all of its technical achievements with Russia. Because that serves your <cough> their interests.

 

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I think Americans will find it much easier to start a war with China than to finish one.

The US will not start a war with China. But it will not accept a Chinese war of aggression against Taiwan. I find it interesting that you never explicitly discuss the moral or political relevance of Communist China taking over a region it historically has never had control over. Do you think the PRC should have a "sphere of influence" over Taiwan? If so, why? Because you very much seem to be pro PRC taking over a country it has never controlled. One imagines what you think the US should do to Canada, given that Canada is clearly within the US sphere of influence. Shouldn't the US make Canada the  51st state because it is there? Just like Ukraine or Taiwan?

 

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

You see your navy as leverage, but I do not.  Your navy is actually an expensive, irreplaceable valuable and delicate toy that Washington will do anything to avoid being broken.  About the fourth US carrier that is hunted down and sunk to catchy heavy metal music videos on the internet, Washington will rapidly lose its stomach to risk losing the remaining eight.  It's that simple.

I think the US surface fleet would struggle to defend itself in a Sino-American war. I just also think the PLAN surface fleet will struggle to defend itself as well. It's not like Type 55s are super replaceable either, especially if the place that builds them is flooded or burning. I don't know why you think the US would just let its bases and carriers die without doing exactly the same to the PRC. It is literally a think the US could do inside the first 24 hours, if that was the goal.

 

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The Chinese would not have to expose themselves to the same degree because maintaining a naval blockade and providing air defense requires fewer sorties each day than the battlefield domination mission you outline.  It's a question of exposure, sorties per day.  The NATO aircraft will need to expose themselves in large numbers to do their job, the Chinese can get away with far fewer sorties.

That makes no sense. You think establishing a no fly zone over Taiwan and creating a CAP around the entire island won't involve a huge amount of PLA-AF resources being closely based to that theater? Or do you think that a US-PRC war will not involve Taiwan? Let me know what scenario you are envisioning where the PLAAF can just scatter to the wind in a hot war with the US.

 

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

In terms of tankers and refueling, I doubt this type of high-value asset will prove particularly survivable in a stealth on stealth pier conflict.

I agree, and the Chinese will be at least as dependent on tankers as the USAF is in any conflict. AEW as well. And in that regard, those turboprop Y-8s are the slowest targets imaginable.

 

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

My assumption is that if neither the aircraft nor the bomb has access to GPS that this will degrade accuracy significantly.  I have no idea on exact numbers, but for demonstration purposes if with GPS the JDAMS lands within 5 meters of the target, then maybe without its within 50 meters type idea.

If the fighter is linked to the bomb, and its INS position is five miles off from reality, and then it exactly places its target and sends that information to the bomb, which is also exactly five miles off from reality, the end result is that the bomb heads to where it thinks the plane thought the target is, which, relatively speaking to the aircraft, *is* where the target is. The plane and the bomb don't need to know exactly where they are in the world, they just need to know where they are relative to the target.

Or if it is something like a HARM, SDB II, Maverick, JASSM, laser guided bomb, then it doesn't matter that the GPS is off by several hundred meters; the terminal guidance will do the work.

 

26 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

None once you factor in that for everyone one aircraft that knows its position, there will be a thousand drones.

Assuming those drones know where they are going. Try this on for size: if a half dozen B-21s can release glide bombs with a ~100km range on coastal targets in China, which is a thing that will be true by the end of the decade - how many times could they do that with how many bombs that are already in US inventory? ~100 per bomber, based on weight. They could hit ports and coastal air bases without even entering PRC airspace.

 

And soon the USAF will start producing the CCAs...if the US is significantly in front of the PRC in terms of AI driven aircraft, that is going to create a new strategic reality. It isn't clear how far along the PLAAF is in such research, but the USAF intends to field such things in 2028 and has a wealth of UAV providers it could use its software to instruct. If the US is in front of the PRC in terms of AI enabled software that is cross platform compatible, as the USAF is developing, then it can achieve the affordable mass it is looking for.

[Josh]

10 hours ago, Murph said:

Outside Trump, sure. A billionaire needs your money! Freedom dies if you don’t donate!

[Stuart Galbraith]

Im so glad we didnt have twitter or facebook in 1940, or we would still be waiting for the Americans to make up their minds.