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jmsaari

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Everything posted by jmsaari

  1. The Ukrainian special forces are already preparing assassination by sending in someone disguised as a waiter. Just one more mint sir... wafer thin.
  2. Over here, mostly logging residues, bark and sawdust, and black liquor as the single most important one (that would be a residue from chemical pulping of wood for producing cellulose for paper, not J├Ągermeister...). The green party has become increasingly critical about forest biomass energy use although it's renewable, claiming CO2 emissions, biodiversity & carbon sink concerns - ignoring the fact that no forest is ever felled for burning, but producing lumber leaves much of the tree in the form of residues for which no other use is feasible, and which will in any case decompose into CO2 & H2O in a relatively short time. But it works as an effective rallying topic for the greens : it's easy to get green-inclined minds to oppose burning the homes of squirrels, and counting on people not to spend a bit of time looking up the facts behind a matter for which they have an instinctive emotional reaction rarely fails, after all.
  3. The French unfortunately seem to have designed a plant that takes a decade or two of time and 10 billion EUR or so to build, so the shivering fools may need to look further to Korea for an APR, or keep shivering until the NuScales & the like start (hopefully) deliver on the promises... There's an interesting schism developing among the greens here at least in that an increasing number of their leading politicians, bloggers and other visible figures are finally starting to lean towards pro-nuclear, while among the voters the green voters are still the most anti-nuclear.... which may have at least some part in the reasons for their slow hemorrhaging of support in the polls over the last few years. At the same time, biomass energy use seems to become the new nuclear for the greens.
  4. Well we have a lot of guns by European standards, but we're actually much more into stabbing, slashing, clubbing and axing each other, than shooting. Firearms make up pretty small fraction of homicide overall. As for the mental health issues, ahem.. well... the weather's been nice recently? Seriously speaking - here it's mostly alcohol, whether that counts as mental health issue is a matter of taste perhaps, but around 4/5 homicides have either the perp, victim or both drunk at the time. And fun fact - there is also this genetic mutation found pretty much exclusively in Finland, with the effect that those who have it are prone to fits of blind rage under the combination of alcohol & low blood sugar... overall, very different homicide situation than the US and streets are quite safe.
  5. Well, i'm not a native english speaker so won't argue if it's good grammatical use of the words or no, but right or wrong, availability in the power industry is a operation/maintenance term, defined as a = [time unit is operational] / [time unit is operational + unscheduled outages] , so it's clearer to use terms as they are. What you're talking about is called capacity factor which is the annual GWh's divided by nameplate power rating x 8760 h. With the VRE's that tells you also the "availability" in the sense you desribed, because the variable cost of production is basically zero and whenever the primary energy source is there, you produce power as much as you can.
  6. Availability would be well over 90%, I think you mean capacity factor (see above: in most of Europe 30-35% for onshore wind, 40-50% offshore, 10-15% for solar (more like 20 in the south though)
  7. You mean capacity factor? New onshore wind comes these days around 30-35%, offshore 40-50%, on average. But varies year to year, place to place, of course. Solar, more like bit over 10-15% in GER...
  8. Well you can, up to a point anyway... but unfortunately there's absolutely zero engineering solutions to political overreactions.
  9. Define good defence... Russia would be in for a bad surprise i suspect and they would find their artillery having a lot harder time and starting to reduce in numbers at a surprising rate when the opponent has modern counter-battery radars, can use that for accurate long-range fires, and troops are drilled for camouflage and dispersion throughout the military. The bad surprise part of course is where the problem is, based on UKR evidence, rational decision-making about how their invasion attempt might be expected to go is not something one can count on for their part which makes deterrence based on own defences a bit less useful, hence the whole NATO application. Even with the RUS would be in for a bad surprise here, it would obviously not be fun to have country in ruins, 5-digit casualty figures and almost inevitably a chunk of eastern border lost anyway. Living quite literally within artillery range of the RUS border right now, the sultan backing off with some nominal victory over his demands would something very much to hope for....
  10. You do get COVID without vaccine, but it's pretty mild by all accounts. At my workplace most people have had it by now, only one was badly sick for a week. Myself, 2xModerna + booster, just got COVID last week finally (quite exactly 6 months since booster). Properly sick for less than 24 hours, main annoyances is that food&coffee still tastes funny, cough keeps from sleeping properly, and most of all rules of workplace keep me still home where i cant really work on the stuff i should, so here i am tanknetting.....
  11. I'm still wondering what's behind all this, does the sultan think he can squeeze something out for himself, how much is posturing for the domestic show, or does he have a deal with Rus to block it, period, and if so then what's he getting out of it.
  12. We're not even at dog farts yet Re: the biomass combustion, there's some challenges, and as always a lot of it is "depends on x y and z"... So basically the main problem is high-temperature corrosion in superheaters due to combination of chlorine and alkali metals (which most biomass has more than most coals), and lack of sulphur in biomass (which would counteract the corrosion a bit). Generally grassy biomass is a lot worse than woody. You get away with burning it by a) reducing superheater temperature levels some (reduces efficiency), b) using better (=more expensive) superheater materials, or c) adding some sulphur, by say co-combustion with peat. Traditionally you'd do bit of all three, but with peat prices here going up and talks of banning it altogether, it's more and more towards b) and perhaps d) as in just replacing the superheaters more often. With woody biomass, doing away with sulphur-containing co-combustion fuel adds a bit to the cost, but not dramatically.
  13. It's about 50-50 here between co-generation and heat-only, in terms of capacity (but cogeneration produces around 70-80% of the energy) I've seen NuScale and the like promoting the CHP options and it might become viable as well, eventually, but there' bigger obstacles over getting that short of thing working for city DH supply than a simple hot-water. Starting from the fact that though it's small compared to current-generation it's still 250 MWth (IIRC, or smth tehereabouts), the Rolls-Royce SMR concept is even bigger and actually not much smaller than a VVER-440, so there comes a lot of problems right there. You'll have a harder time selling the idea of safety of smth like that to both the voters and the nuclear safety authorities to be built right next to a big city, and it will need to be a big city because producing steam for turbine means pressures and temperatures that will drive up the pressure vessel costs so you need to run all that thermal power for 7000-8000 hours/year for any chance of profitability, and of course passive safety becomes harder the bigger you get. The concept we're trying to push around here is to put a very small well under 100 MWth PWR reactor that'd be rate for max 16 bars pressure and dug into bedrock, where secondary loop is also just hot water at something like 120 ┬░C or bit more... a lot lighter structures and <3% fuel enrichment so should permit a lot lighter regulation as well, hopefully permitting mid-load operations and not only in the biggest cities. IIRC China has apparently done something like that already, as well.
  14. And perhaps the most important nuance of all, which is that there were no deaths due to radiation sickness in or around the plant, and if the same standards of radiation levels that resulted in the staggeringly expensive evacuation and cleanup operation were to be applied in Finland, we'd have some buildings built on granite moraine hills in the category of immediate evacuation, and no visiting to pick belongings until the area has cooled off... Far too many people go with the assumption that since Japan is putting that much effort into evacuation and cleanup, it must have been necessary to save lives.
  15. Depends a lot on the country and local conditions and resources. Up here were humans are few and trees and mooses are many, biomass is almost half as it is and there's potential for increase, though not too much. The big problem with district heating is always that your winter peak is about 10 x the summer minimum so there's going to be need for different types of generation. SMR nuke would probably fill in the base load nicely but i doubt even the most economically optimized, series-produced, hot-water-only SMR is ever going to be cheap enough to run half a year, let alone less, so you're going to need some sort of cheap boilers that cost little to buy, even if fuel is expensive. Over here the peak load / reserve plants are starting to be mostly wood pellets, with various biocoal, boi-oil etc being tried but not really catching on yet at least. Heat pumps will take slice as well, and probably everyone will want to have simple electric boilers just because it costs next to nothing to have and you will likely have times when electricity price is around zero, possibly below.
  16. Depends on how you do it and what counts as green. You CAN have even 100% wind+solar system... but if you want it without blackouts, there will be few zeroes added to electricity prices... realistically, if you count nuclear as green and have a bit biomass and/or hydro resources available, it's not too hard or expensive. But if green means also no nuclear and not burning anything, then it's either ridiculous prices (as in truly ridiculous, not just high), or frequent blackouts, pick one.
  17. Germany should be close to 50% if you count all renewables, or around 35% if counting only the variable VRE (sun & wind)... and part of how Germany is solving that is exactly with a big grid, specifically buying Danish wind, Norwegian hydro, French nuclear and Polish coal when they're short, and dumping their wind to said neighbours when the opposite is the case. It's been over a decade now since prices first hit negative in Ger, and momentary renewable production figure went over 100% of german needs. So it does start to come to the point though that it's starting to cost, because the grid will need major investments if it's not to become a major bottleneck for "it's always windy somewhere" to help, and the more you increase the VRE fraction, the faster the costs will grow. Depends a lot on many things, what sorts of reserves you have available (hydro, cheap NG), what sort of wind conditions, etc, but roughly speaking first 1/3 of most countries power generation will be easily replaced by wind, 2nd one will start to add notable system costs, and the last 1/3 if you really insist on 100% VRE generation will be ridiculously expensive. Cheap NG was supposed to be how this was supposed to work out until power-to-gas would (hopefully) come along as affordable solution, but so much for that now. And the nuclear phase-off is now far enough in germany that it would be difficult to reverse even for the still-existing plants from even technoeconomic perspective, even if it wasnt politically completely impossible. Which it unfortunately seems to be.
  18. I guess how well the "legs" are mounted dug into the soil makes a big difference... in some of the videos the gun jumps back so much and violently that it makes one wonder if having the head anywhere near the sight would be even survivable.
  19. Interesting, thanks... really makes one wonder how accurately one could fire with that through night/bad weather.
  20. Not so much the price, land-based wind on a good site is currently the cheapest way to produce a kWh of electricity, but the inability to load-follow. Reservoir hydro and biomass can load-follow, but thats it, and eventually variable renewable energy will cannibalize it's own profitability by driving down the prices when it's windy/sunny and production goes up. There's a lot of wind farms and solar PV to be built on reasons of cost and profit alone before that limit comes up in most places, though. Clear majority of countries can probably deal with power generation without Russian NG without too much trouble. Electricity prices will go up, though maybe not even too badly. Bigger problems will be a) how to heat those central/eastern european homes that have gas heating, and b) how much NG will be left for chemical industry users that can't subsitute it after the domestic heating needs are covered.
  21. Because a) dumping it will create a giant methane cloud that will not be fun for anyone or anything within a very large radius around the dump sight, and b) NG is a valuable commodity that hopefully will if not sooner then at least later have paying customers.
  22. That's interesting indeed, i've heard of that before and the obvious advantage was night / bad-weather at the time when Warpac didn't have thermals, but this is the first picture of one i've ever come across. I wonder if bojan or someone can shed any light on how it worked in practice? It didnt seem to become particularly common, wondering if that was due to cost or problems... As a side note, having seen how that thing recoils (i.e. you can't exactly keep tracking a moving target and fire it while looking through the sight), i've been wondering how much practical accuracy you could expect with the MT-12 anyway, especially with crossing targets...
  23. You still think Putin & his cronies let such things as facts or logic interfere with anything they do? They seem to be so deep in believing their own bullshit that I'm highly skeptical they're even capable of judging what's in their own best interest, let alone consider what is true and what rights some individual humans might have.
  24. Obviously Russia never made it into a stable democracy stage, but just as obviously slid further and further into increasingly strict autocracy over the last decades. "But parliament was shelled in 1993!" isn't going to change that.
  25. The atmosphere in english stadium altogether is something to experience... only made it once, that was in Goodison, 10 years ago, also vs spurs...
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