Because Trump 2.0

[Skywalkre]

5 hours ago, nitflegal said:

We're in that wonderful stretch when nobody's choice of who to vote for will change but the possibility of whether they will vote or not might.  The Hunter Biden thing won't make many people vote for Trump instead of Biden, it might make enough throw up their hands and refuse to vote for either.  Probably not but that would be the hope.

Mostly this but let's not forget that the numbers of undecided don't need to be very big to have an impact.  Remember how few across several states in the Midwest swung the election to Trump back i '16.  Also, one pundit was saying when you look at a state like Florida and tally up all the votes going back two decades the difference is in a fraction of a percent... so a small number of undecided can have a massive impact in a state that Trump simply can't lose to have hope of winning.

[Jeff]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

A large proportion have already voted, and the Dems are as fired up as Trump's base is. Just because people don't drape Biden flags over their vehicles, there seems to be this idea that the other side is just staying home, which is already proving incorrect. I think at this point there's already half as many votes registered as the entire turn out last year, in particular in the swing states. I suspect the turnout for both sides will be record shattering.

Republicans are outperforming 2016 in early voting, even in Miami Dade County.

[Jeff]

2 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Wha...?

TN has largely become an echo chamber of folks on the far end of the R spectrum.  Most legit Left/D posters and many of the centrists left years ago.  I've posted plenty of criticisms of Trump which have gone unanswered/met with crickets so it's not like all these 'facts' are supporting one side... it's just the inconvenient ones get ignored.

There are plenty on the Left here, you included. If they don't like that they get principled, factual pushback they aren't used to in their bubble, that's not our fault. We're used to being called Nazis, white supremacists, deplorables and chumps. We've grown thick skin because of it.

[DKTanker]

6 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Wha...?

TN has largely become an echo chamber of folks on the far end of the R spectrum. 

Define "Far end of the R spectrum."

[Skywalkre]

5 hours ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

the polls say the "R" is finished and "D" will triumph but I wonder what motivation a person would have for dealing with a pollster if you are an "R"?

It seems unlikely to me that Trump would be doing what he is doing if he's really down 15 points.  Trump's internal polling must show something different than what the public sees.

Anecdotally there is a lot of Trump support from our immigrant customers.  I've encountered two that are voting "D" out of 80 or so.

To the first point about Trump strategy - the possibility exists that he's simply running a bad campaign.  The best example of this is how poorly the Clinton campaign was run back in '16 which is explained in vivid detail in the book Shattered (I've recommended it before and still do to everyone).

To the second point - I think your state may be more Red than mine, Tim.  The two of us judging support for Biden when we're both living in the heartland of Trump supporters doesn't seem apt.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Skywalkre

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

A large proportion have already voted, and the Dems are as fired up as Trump's base is. Just because people don't drape Biden flags over their vehicles, there seems to be this idea that the other side is just staying home, which is already proving incorrect. I think at this point there's already half as many votes registered as the entire turn out last year, in particular in the swing states. I suspect the turnout for both sides will be record shattering.

We still don't know if all this early voting is evidence we'll get record turnout or folks simply trying to avoid the polls due to the virus.  I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with average to slightly below average turnout in the end.

ETA - Why average to below average?  The virus turning so many away, lack of interest in either candidate like back in '16, the Trump 'wave' simply not materializing (because there's nothing there to believe it exists), etc.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Skywalkre

[Skywalkre]

9 minutes ago, Jeff said:

There are plenty on the Left here, you included. If they don't like that they get principled, factual pushback they aren't used to in their bubble, that's not our fault. We're used to being called Nazis, white supremacists, deplorables and chumps. We've grown thick skin because of it.

🙄  If one were to believe TN only Rs have been discriminated against in this country in recent years...

To your point about me being on the Left... where in the bloody hell do you get that?  I mean, really?  I've posted about being for small government, fiscal responsibility, pro-defense, equal and fair application of the Constitution/law to every citizen, and I'm pro-Life.  Please, I've challenged DKTanker on this bullshit as well and he's never been able to respond - where do you get off making that claim?  The only real answer I can come up with is because I don't drink the Koolaid you all call 'Conservatism'... which if applied to the country means probably single digit percentages qualify.  Give me a break...

[Skywalkre]

12 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

Define "Far end of the R spectrum."

Trump is now the R party.  You all are rabid supporters of him to the point where criticism is almost nonexistent.

As an example his handling of the virus has been atrocious since the summer.  Back during those days when states like my own were close to having their hospitals overrun even a quarter of those who usually support Trump were willing to state he was doing a bad job handling the virus.  Such talk was almost nonexistent from you all here.

Thus... far end of the R spectrum. 

[Mikel2]

1 minute ago, Skywalkre said:

Trump is now the R party.  You all are rabid supporters of him to the point where criticism is almost nonexistent.

As an example his handling of the virus has been atrocious since the summer.  Back during those days when states like my own were close to having their hospitals overrun even a quarter of those who usually support Trump were willing to state he was doing a bad job handling the virus.  Such talk was almost nonexistent from you all here.

Thus... far end of the R spectrum. 

I think it's fair to say that with some exceptions (trade/protectionism/spending), the agenda of his administration has been surprisingly mainstream republican and surprisingly conservative.  This is not what I expected in 2016.

That Trump's policies are so unremarkably republican makes the great shift to the left of the democrats even more glaring.

[Skywalkre]

7 minutes ago, Mikel2 said:

I think it's fair to say that with some exceptions (trade/protectionism/spending), the agenda of his administration has been surprisingly mainstream republican and surprisingly conservative. 

Some of those exceptions are massive ones like the spending one.

I've brought this up before and gotten crickets so I'll throw it out again.  TN is a site with a lot of vets and some currently serving as members.  Pretty much all of us (actually, probably all of us) are very much pro-defense/pro-military (or else why would we be here?).  Why then are so many seemingly ok with the US military getting eviscerated in 15-20 years when our fiscal policy starts to crumble the foundation of this country?  (Our current fiscal policy/trajectory will collapse this nation sooner than any Communist takeover by the Ds. )  Sequestration was just a taste of what's to come unless we change course (there's no sign of that).  Sequestration undoubtedly killed service members.  What will happen in 15-20 years will be far worse and will basically hand the mantle of superpower over to China... so why are so many ok with this?

The spending one is another good example of highlighting how rabid many of the posters on TN here are about Trump.  There was a... 'discussion' a year or two ago on here with one poster who was trying to state the increased debt/deficit spending under Trump wasn't at all.  It was... mind-bottling they were so adamant about it. 

Back in '16 I think it was you who stated they were worried what would happen to the future of Rs/Conservatism if Trump took over the mantle like he has.  I echoed that and still do.  There's some worrisome signs out of the younger generations simply turning away from Conservatism (though not necessarily embracing the Left)... and with good reason.

[Mikel2]

2 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Some of those exceptions are massive ones like the spending one.

I've brought this up before and gotten crickets so I'll throw it out again.  TN is a site with a lot of vets and some currently serving as members.  Pretty much all of us (actually, probably all of us) are very much pro-defense/pro-military (or else why would we be here?).  Why then are so many seemingly ok with the US military getting eviscerated in 15-20 years when our fiscal policy starts to crumble the foundation of this country?  (Our current fiscal policy/trajectory will collapse this nation sooner than any Communist takeover by the Ds. )  Sequestration was just a taste of what's to come unless we change course (there's no sign of that).  Sequestration undoubtedly killed service members.  What will happen in 15-20 years will be far worse and will basically hand the mantle of superpower over to China... so why are so many ok with this?

The spending one is another good example of highlighting how rabid many of the posters on TN here are about Trump.  There was a... 'discussion' a year or two ago on here with one poster who was trying to state the increased debt/deficit spending under Trump wasn't at all.  It was... mind-bottling they were so adamant about it. 

Back in '16 I think it was you who stated they were worried what would happen to the future of Rs/Conservatism if Trump took over the mantle like he has.  I echoed that and still do.  There's some worrisome signs out of the younger generations simply turning away from Conservatism (though not necessarily embracing the Left)... and with good reason.

 

For the record, in my opinion the debt is a national security problem. Out of control spending will bring down this nation. Never mind the corrupting effects on society that "free" money has, on many levels. It would be difficult to come up with a more effective way of undermining a nation.

That said, Trump is hardly the inventor of irresponsible spending. Both parties had been doing this with great enthusiasm for years.  Trump just added to the madness, at the same time when both parties discovered that the public simply does not care about the debt.

[DKTanker]

32 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Trump is now the R party.  You all are rabid supporters of him to the point where criticism is almost nonexistent.

As an example his handling of the virus has been atrocious since the summer.  Back during those days when states like my own were close to having their hospitals overrun even a quarter of those who usually support Trump were willing to state he was doing a bad job handling the virus.  Such talk was almost nonexistent from you all here.

Thus... far end of the R spectrum. 

Your logic, if not your definition, is pristine in its concentricity.

[DKTanker]

14 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Back in '16 I think it was you who stated they were worried what would happen to the future of Rs/Conservatism if Trump took over the mantle like he has.  I echoed that and still do.  There's some worrisome signs out of the younger generations simply turning away from Conservatism (though not necessarily embracing the Left)... and with good reason.

But other than tilting at the fiscal windmill (which is now so far out of control no political ideology will ever reign it in), you're not conservative in the least.  So why are you bothered by what Trump might mean to conservatism?  In any case, younger generations are embracing the left, the hard left, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with the Lefts control of education and almost the entirety of media.  Trump is just the latest target for you leftists to shoot arrows.  Not a leftist?  Go ahead, point out your posts that talk of your concern about the Democratic party shifting so radically to the left.  Point out those posts which decry the terrorism perpetrated by the militant arm of the Democratic Party.

It says volumes about you personally but also about a large part of society, that you would rather put the country on the expressway to Marxism just to avoid four more years of boorish tweets by Bad Orangeman. 

[nitflegal]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

To the first point about Trump strategy - the possibility exists that he's simply running a bad campaign.  The best example of this is how poorly the Clinton campaign was run back in '16 which is explained in vivid detail in the book Shattered (I've recommended it before and still do to everyone).

To the second point - I think your state may be more Red than mine, Tim.  The two of us judging support for Biden when we're both living in the heartland of Trump supporters doesn't seem apt.

I will easily agree that his campaign is pretty poor.  I also fall into the camp that if he had someone vet his tweets and if he had some discipline in messaging he would be walking away with this election.  His policies are generally middle of the road conservative and his efforts on the economy were impressive.  Record beating minority and female employment is not a small thing.  I've frankly accepted that neither party is interested in reigning in spending because the American voting public has no willingness at all to sacrifice at all to achieve it and will turn on anyone who actually starts making actual fiscally responsible actions.  Trump is a very flawed campaigner and that's just who he is.  I suppose its part of his charm to much of his base.  The thing is though, everything that the Democrats are espousing on why he is an existential threat they are proposing to go way further.  They call him a fascist and yet he'd be in better political shape if he did act more like Il Duce on Covid for instance.  Meanwhile the opposition has a lackluster corruptocrat who wants to muzzle the opposition press and destroy anyone who gets in their way (how many people have been doxed and destroyed for saying mean things about the Democrats?).  

[Stargrunt6]

17 minutes ago, nitflegal said:

Meanwhile the opposition has a lackluster corruptocrat who wants to muzzle the opposition press and destroy anyone who gets in their way (how many people have been doxed and destroyed for saying mean things about the Democrats?).  

Or even nodding in approval while out of focus and sitting behind the president? 

[Stargrunt6]

Meanwhile . . . yay Klobuchar?
 

 

[Simon Tan]

Posting on cyclic is always funny. I shall miss Tulsi. I hope she finds a new place.

[R011]

5 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Trump is now the R party.  You all are rabid supporters of him to the point where criticism is almost nonexistent.

As an example his handling of the virus has been atrocious since the summer.  Back during those days when states like my own were close to having their hospitals overrun even a quarter of those who usually support Trump were willing to state he was doing a bad job handling the virus.  Such talk was almost nonexistent from you all here.

Thus... far end of the R spectrum. 

And if Cruz or anyone else had won in 2016, they would be the party just as Clinton and Obama were theirs.  When Trump leaves, it might become the Pence party or whoever the next Republican president might be - assuming a Democratic Administration doesn't ensure that can't happen.

[Murph]

4 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

Posting on cyclic is always funny. I shall miss Tulsi. I hope she finds a new place.

I like her too, it is a pity she had to remain a D.  

[Murph]

Bill Barr has shown his true colors and is a complete swamp creature.  He had to protect the Democrats at all costs.  So he and Durham claimed to obey the rule of law, while allowing Wray and the FBI to cover up crimes to protect the left.  Plus with all the rioting, looting, and murders from the Democrats, Barr is nowhere to be seen.  Send him his 30 pieces of silver, he has earned them.  

[MiloMorai]

Barr is your typical politician. When it comes to saving his ass, he will leave his rat friends to sink with the ship.

[Rick]

Trump will be re-elected by a larger margin than in 2016. The only real question is will the G.O.P. will take back the House of Representatives. 

[MiloMorai]

8 minutes ago, Rick said:

Trump will be re-elected by a larger margin than in 2016. The only real question is will the G.O.P. will take back the House of Representatives. 

What fantasy world are you living in? There must be something extra special in that special kool-aid.

[Josh]

14 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

We still don't know if all this early voting is evidence we'll get record turnout or folks simply trying to avoid the polls due to the virus.  I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with average to slightly below average turnout in the end.

ETA - Why average to below average?  The virus turning so many away, lack of interest in either candidate like back in '16, the Trump 'wave' simply not materializing (because there's nothing there to believe it exists), etc.

I've already seen some stats that indicate a lot of first time voters in some states. It's possible we're just getting the voting out of the way and that Nov 3rd comes in with a whimper, but it's not the way I'd bet. I suspect both sides will have record turnouts; both sides have framed the election as existential.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, MiloMorai said:

What fantasy world are you living in? There must be something extra special in that special kool-aid.

Rick truly can't fathom a reality where Trump supporters are and always have been the minority. Any study of the House race polls and the GOP spending contributions at the national level clearly show the Republican party is having to conserve money and retrench around incumbents rather than take new seats; they are on the offensive in only a half dozen districts. There are really only three dem incumbent seats that are competitive, where as there are a half dozen Rep seats (a couple of which are open and thus easier pickups) that are competitive for the Dems. At the end of the day it is likely the Dems actually pick up a seat or two. There is no possibility of the GOP retaking the House; if you look at their spending at the national level they aren't even contesting enough Dem seats for that to work if they won every race they are backing.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Josh