Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[Daan]

Armenia released imagery of another downed Azeri drone, an Aerostar UAV

 

Azerbaijan used a suicide drone to destroy another 36D6 Thin Shield radar.

The blog Oryxspioenkop is tracking the losses, as seen in the footage and Armenia has so far lost the following radars:

1x P-18

4x 36D6

1x SNR-125 (for S-125)

1x 5N63S (for S-300)

1x 19J6 (for S-300)

1x 1S32 (for 2K11 Krug)

1x 1S91 SURN (for 2K12 Kub)

[bojan]

lostarmor is far more reliable source as there are doubles from a different angles on the published videos.

Edited October 23, 2020 by bojan

[glenn239]

17 hours ago, Colin said:

Canada's current AD is a few guys with shotguns, the current conflicts have woken the talking heads and they are getting worried as we would get slaughtered in a peer conflict by the drones/loitering munitions. question is what can we do? 

Shut our mouths and keep out of shit that does not concern us would be the first thing.  Punt globalism and anything that sounds like a Freeland.  Wake up and realize that Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa have no missile defenses to speak of would be the second.  

[glenn239]

17 hours ago, Colin said:

Historical Canada is an expeditionary army, that's not going to change and when I say "peer", I don't mean Russia, which we are most certainly not a peer force, in fact we would struggle against most nations regardless how well trained our individual soldiers are trained. Also historical Canada has gone into these oversea adventures poorly equipped and suffered do to that fact, until we reequipped. We just don't learn. The only time we were well equipped was going into the Balkans, the UN said "no heavy weapons" the Canadian general said "piss on that" and brought Mortars, TOWS and other goodies, so we could actually stare down the combatants to a certain degree. We should have brought our tanks as well.

My cousin did two combat tours in A-stan back about 15 years ago.  They were equipped well enough for the Taliban, but that was about it.  Had anyone armed and trained the enemy for real, it would have been a far rougher ride.

Edited October 24, 2020 by glenn239

[Daan]

20 hours ago, bojan said:

lostarmor is far more reliable source as there are doubles from a different angles on the published videos.

Oryx has been accused of that before, yet no one has been able to point out instances of double counting yet. In fact, the account often shows engagements from multiple angles.

The advantage of Lost Armour is of course the documentation provided per case. The disadvantage is that I need Google Translate.

[bojan]

Not oryx, original Azeri mod footage, they have been caught few times (IDK how many, as I don't really have time to really look into it). Oryx just takes videos at face value and considers that anything that was hit was destroyed, which is a little naive for a serious analysis.

Lostarmor has it's errors also, IIRC some of the photos of destroyed tanks from Ukraine turned out to be fire in the Russian army depot few years before that etc, but as you have noted they try to geolocate and use all available sources to verify claims.

Edited October 24, 2020 by bojan

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[AttilaA]

«Not oryx, original Azeri mod footage, they have been caught few times (IDK how many, as I don't really have time to really look into it). Oryx just takes videos at face value and considers that anything that was hit was destroyed, which is a little naive for a serious analysis.»

Oryx himself said that he checks for doubles, and he works together with few other people. You don’t need to look for such examples yourself, but you can cite what others have pointed out. I’m genuinely interested because I have not seen such examples either.

What is naive is thinking that a T-72 can survive MAM-L, which has a 10 kg tandem warhead. Or you mean that those radars can survive hits from HAROP?

Here is a HAROP strike on a radar.

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

 

[AttilaA]

@Stuart Galbraith

I’m surprised they even admit setbacks. This comes from the same people that two weeks ago claimed to have encircled Azerbaijani Corps in South, which in their words would have brought «final victory» to Armenia in the war.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by AttilaA

[bojan]

39 minutes ago, AttilaA said:

...What is naive is thinking that a T-72 can survive MAM-L, which has a 10 kg tandem warhead....

 

We have seen tanks survive more. Thing is, we don't know the state of tank most often, especially after Harop strikes. Also there is difference between hit, penetrated, KOd and destroyed tank.

As for other things... I really don't care about your war, or your propaganda, or Armenian one, so your effort is lost on me. As long as both countries are buying weapons from Serbia, you can have that war going on for a 100 years as far as I am concearned.

Edited October 25, 2020 by bojan

[AttilaA]

6 hours ago, bojan said:

We have seen tanks survive more. Thing is, we don't know the state of tank most often, especially after Harop strikes.

In some cases they target the engine compartment which disables the tank anyway. 

As for when MAM-L hits the turret, there is very little chance of a T-72 surviving. This is simple logic when looking at the specs of MAM-L vs survivability of T-72.

You can see both examples in this video.

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by AttilaA

[Yama]

On 10/23/2020 at 11:39 PM, Daan said:

 

The blog Oryxspioenkop is tracking the losses, as seen in the footage and Armenia has so far lost the following radars:

I think those numbers are rather massively inflated. I think there is no way Armenian side has lost 157 tanks and 58 MLRS's - they probably don't even HAVE that many.

Reminds me of claim how USAF claimed 900+ Iraqi tanks destroyed by 'tank plinking' sorties during Desert Storm. It was based on video evidence on tanks hit and no tank can survive a 1000lb LGB so it must have been accurate, right?? Well, once they got to study the target area, actual number turned out about 1/3 of those claimed - still substantial, mind you, but they found out many tanks had been more than once as already destroyed/damaged and abandoned tank looked exactly same as intact one on the flight crew's screens.

[AttilaA]

That figure includes 54 captured tanks (visually confirmed).

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by AttilaA

[Ssnake]

Oryx speaks of "destroyed or damaged" and lumps them into one category, and "captured or abandoned" into the other. Accuse them of inflating their numbers all day, but maybe check their definitions first...  

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, AttilaA said:

@Stuart Galbraith

I’m surprised they even admit setbacks. This comes from the same people that two weeks ago claimed to have encircled Azerbaijani Corps in South, which in their words would have brought «final victory» to Armenia in the war.

 

 

Im surprised that they admit doing that badly. Im wondering if this is to try and encourage Russia to get involved. They dont seem to have much else in the way of options.

[Mistral]

8 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im surprised that they admit doing that badly. Im wondering if this is to try and encourage Russia to get involved. They dont seem to have much else in the way of options.

It could be that there is no point in lying when the whole population is going to be exterminated anyway.

[Stuart Galbraith]

My, someone woke up feeling cynical this morning.

Well, its not as if Turkey hasnt done it before is it.

[AttilaA]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im surprised that they admit doing that badly. Im wondering if this is to try and encourage Russia to get involved. They dont seem to have much else in the way of options.

They are underplaying Azerbaijani gains. But the situation is such that they have to admit at least some Azerbaijani advancement.

Edited October 25, 2020 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

Looks like Spike NLOS.

 

[RETAC21]

Nothing new, just high tech going down from a few actors to widespread use, anticipated already in the 70s

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a231900.pdf

"A Western source recently defined the Soviet recce-strike
complex as a combination of new artillery systems, including new
remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), advanced counterbattery radars,
new munitions, including both advanced unguided and guided
ammunition, new command and control systems to coordinate target
acquisition, designation, and engagement, and new weapons
subsystems.
Recce-strike complexes must ensure instant readiness for
action and provide for reconnoitering and striking moving or
fixed targets on the ground or at sea at ranges from 200 to 300
kilometers. 6 They also must be able to deal with a large number
of targets and radical changes in the situation, and possess a
high degree of reliability and survivability under conditions of
enemy counteraction by fire and electronic means.
The Soviets assert that the recce-strike complex allows real
time reconnaissance and destruction of a target. "

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by RETAC21

[Daan]

Over the last week the Azeri MoD has released several videos in which drones are used to identify and designate targets for larger munitions than that they are able to carry themselves.

 

Target hit:

Edited October 25, 2020 by Daan

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Daan said:

 

Target hit:

That is a BM-30 Smerch buster, which separates from warhead and falls separately, not some guided thing. Through it did not matter much this time.

 

[Mistral]

18 minutes ago, bojan said:

That is a BM-30 Smerch buster, which separates from warhead and falls separately, not some guided thing. Through it did not matter much this time.

 

The times is saw a caption of one of those read unexploded rocket...

[Daan]

I know it is a Smerch engine section, we have seen these sticking out of the ground in many recent wars.

With the ANNA crew: