Kiev Is Burning

[Sardaukar]

Southfront is interesting site, but have to be careful with it. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SouthFront

In 2020, the US State Department described SouthFront as part of Russia's "disinformation and propaganda ecosystem," where Russian state actors team with others whose connection to Russia was less clear, in order to get wide attention for their ideas.^[1]

In 2021 and again in 2022, the US Treasury announced sanctions against SouthFront, calling it in 2021 "an online disinformation site registered in Russia that...attempts to appeal to military enthusiasts, veterans, and conspiracy theorists, all while going to great lengths to hide its connections to Russian intelligence."^[6][7]

Edited March 11, 2022 by Sardaukar

[futon]

Japan expressed regret Thursday after Russia signed into law a bill establishing a tariff-free zone on four Russian-held islands claimed by Japan.

The Russian move came as Tokyo and Moscow have been discussing a plan to hold joint economic activities on the islands, called the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia, without harming the legal stance of either country.

"It is not in line with Japan's position on the four islands or the aim of the joint economic activities the two sides have been discussing. It is deplorable," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno at a regular news conference, adding Japan conveyed its position on the matter to Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested in September that Russia was seeking to attract foreign investment to the islands by exempting companies from key taxes, including corporate and property taxes.

...

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/7c89063ccbf2-japan-angered-by-russias-tariff-free-zone-on-disputed-islands.html

[futon]

On March 10th, ten Russian navy ships passed through the strait between Hokkaido and Aomori. They were observed by JS Makinami, JS Izushima, and a P-3C. https://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press2022/press_pdf/p20220311_05.pdf

[ink]

Clear skies over much of northern Ukraine today so I expect we'll see increased RuAF activity.

[jaro]

1 minute ago, ink said:

Clear skies over much of northern Ukraine today so I expect we'll see increased RuAF activity.

and more intel for Ukrainian artillery from satelites..

[sunday]

Looks like Syrian rebels fighting the Syrian Government and the Russian forces there now want to go to Ukraine to fight Russians there. Perhaps these are the moderate headchoppers Sardaukar was talking about...

Quote

(...)

Suhail Hamoud, a famed terrorist in Idlib, who is nicknamed Abu TOW for his skill in operating the American anti-tank missile BGM-71 TOW, recently offered assistance to Ukraine.  Hamoud said on Twitter, “There is a strong will I am in Idlib now and ready to go to support the Ukrainian army. I want to help someone”.  He is said to have more than 100 confirmed hits of Russian-made tanks in Syria during the battles against the Syrian Arab Army. Former President Obama had sent the TOW anti-tank missiles to Idlib.

Iraqi terrorist leader Maysara bin Ali, also known by Abu Maria al-Qahtani, said on Telegram that if a Muslim in Ukraine fights and defeats the Russians, he would be rewarded in heaven, and if he gets killed he would be a martyr, having died in a Holy War.

The most powerful terrorist force in Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a coalition of Islamist groups made up of Syrian and foreign fighters, and dominated by Al Qaeda affiliate known as Jibhat al Nusra.

(...)

 

[ink]

4 minutes ago, jaro said:

and more intel for Ukrainian artillery from satelites..

Indeed.

[ink]

Something I read today got me thinking. How much materiel is Ukraine able to produce on its own and during wartime? Can they produce their own heavy weapons like artillery pieces or MLRS launchers? What about shells and rockets? And, finally, what about small arms?

And how much of this production is concealed, dispersed or contained in hardened shelters? In other words, how much is protected against attack?

[Sardaukar]

Russia has bit of problem in that their units are pretty light on supply vehicles. They rely on railroads a lot and have 30 000 troops or so dedicated to rail  repair in military.

Problem for them is that main rail nodes are still being held by Ukranians. Thus, supply problems.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Sardaukar

[jaro]

Unconfirmed yet:

 

 

[DKTanker]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

What would two dozen MiG-29s possibly accomplish? It would be a major NATO escalation that wouldn’t change this conflict in the slightest. Any rational cost benefit analysis says it’s not worth the effort or sacrifice of US F-16s, which is a Polish precondition.

Right.  When your first objective is to appease Putin you can rationalize any amount of appeasement.

[Ssnake]

It's commendable for officers to lead from the front, but tends to increase their attrition rates. Live exemplary, die exemplary.

[DKTanker]

13 hours ago, RichTO90 said:

Again, just spit balling here, but I don't think DOD gave the idea a thumbs down because they want to appease Russia.

Pretty sure that's exactly what happened.  Russia wants the no-fly zone over Ukraine, if it can enforce it, and the US and NATO essentially said, "Fine by us, please just don't threaten nukes again."

[Sardaukar]

Internet sleuthing in war, modern times:

https://www.wired.com/story/facial-recognition-identify-russian-soldiers/

[jaro]

 

[bojan]

1 hour ago, jaro said:

Some more details on Eneghodar Nuclear Powerplant attack... it wasnt as "safe" as claimed initially..

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085427380/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-zaporizhzhia?t=1646999943096

Nothing about shooting at a territory of NPP is "safe" by any means.

That said, only part hit and damaged were training facility building and personal coridor between it and reactor blocks. There was potential for damage, that if left untreated for days could lead to an increased chance for atomic accident (part of boric acid recirculation and clearing equipment is located in the training facility building), but it did not happen, and even if it did, it would require urgency that would need boric acid to be used first in order to produce atomic accident.

IOW, another breathless "Nukes baaaaad!" article.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Cynik75 said:

Where were poligons for german tanks? In USSR.

Germans learned very few things from those polygons, other than that idea of Leichtractor and Grosstractor is bad.

And same things, serving as a fake front for a German weapon development were done by Sweden, Netherland, Swiss and few more countries.

Edited March 11, 2022 by bojan

[sunday]

2 minutes ago, bojan said:

Nothing about shooting at a territory of NPP is "safe" by any means.

That said, only part hit and damaged were training facility building and personal coridor between it and reactor blocks. There was potential for damage, that if left untreated for days could lead to an increased chance for atomic accident (part of boric acid recirculation and clearing equipment is located in the training facility building), but it did not happen, and even if it did, it would require urgency that would need boric acid to be used first in order to produce atomic accident.

IOW, another breathless "Nukes baaaaad!" article.

In our PWR power plants, there is a chemical makeup control system for every reactor, especially as the concentration of boric acid is key for starting a nuclear reactor, but control rods should be able to override the variation in reactivity caused by an absence of boric acid, if I am not mistaken.

[bojan]

Just now, sunday said:

...but control rods should be able to override the variation in reactivity caused by an absence of boric acid, if I am not mistaken.

yes, and so in order for absence of boric acid cleaner to be felt you need first reactor to be so fucked up to be unable to compensate, and said cleaners need to be inoperable for at least 3-4 days before even that could take effect.

IOW, typical anti-nuclear scaremongering.

[Angrybk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/11/how-right-embraced-russian-disinformation-about-us-bioweapons-labs-ukraine/

[sorry for partisan title but debunks Ukraine bioweapon claims]

Quote

Here are the specks of truth that Russian officials are using to spread their propaganda. The labs were initially funded by the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), as part of its cooperative biological engagement program. And the labs do study African swine fever — but with the aim of preventing its spread.

At a 2017 conference hosted by the DTRA, for instance, a Ukrainian official outlined laboratory efforts at improving the diagnosis, surveillance and prevention of ASF in wild boar populations. Another official discussed how Ukrainian scientists had implemented a program to monitor certain soft ticks, which transmit the disease to pigs. Then a third official presented on efforts to trace tularemia and anthrax in animals such as wild boars.

All of those efforts are in line with a statement posted on the website of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine — that the program helps “ensure Ukraine can detect and report outbreaks caused by dangerous pathogens before they pose security or stability threats.” The United States and Ukraine in 2005 had signed an agreement under which the Defense Department, at no cost to Ukraine, would assist the Ministry of Health in ensuring that Ukrainian labs studying diseases could not be used to develop biological weapons and to better detect, diagnose and monitor infectious-disease outbreaks.

“The Russian charges that the Lugar Center and other biological labs in the Caucasus and Central Asia are making banned bioweapons are unfounded,” wrote biological threat expert Filippa Lentzos in 2018. “Last week a group of international experts, including this author, visited the Lugar Center by invitation of the Georgian government. We were given access to all areas of the site, examined relevant documentation, and interviewed staff, and concluded that the Center demonstrates significant transparency. Our group observed nothing out of the ordinary, or that we wouldn’t expect to see in a legitimate facility of this sort.”

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Angrybk

[bojan]

44 minutes ago, ink said:

...Can they produce their own heavy weapons like artillery pieces or MLRS launchers? What about shells and rockets? And, finally, what about small arms?...

Doubtful about artillery pieces, they did not have production of the barrel blanks for anything over 125mm tank gun. MLRS - yes, especially smaller like Grad. Shells and rockets - yes. Small arms - yes.

Question is the quantities they could produce.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, Ssnake said:

The minimum we could do is precisely "nothing". We're doing more than that, and I'm fine with it. Giving them fighter jets in a different configuration than they are used to (even if it's the same airframe) is impractical and incurs an unnecessary risk of escalation. I fully support the decision to not give those MiGs to Ukraine. If we do that we could just as well let the Ukrainian squadrons shift their bases to Poland.

Supplying arms is an adequate response to Putin's lust for conquest. Supplying complex weapon systems just as jet bombers and fighters is quite another. If Ukraine is threatened with immediate collapse (doesn't seem so), sending them the MiGs won't make a difference except setting another precedent that will make it harder to reconcile with Russia after this war will be over, which will be hard enough. If Ukraine isn't collapsing, the question is if they actually need them to begin with.

The whole debate has much to do with virtue signalling and PR stunts, and very little with practical thinking and rational decision-making. Ukraine is conducting a brilliant delaying action while at the same time mobilizing its reserves. If they can survive the next two or three weeks (and I see no worrying signs that they won't), there's a decent chance that they might actually turn around the whole war.

It is NOT virtue signaling. It's about giving the only nation in Europe that is fighting for the EU and NATO and, frankly, Democracy in general, the kit Ukraine believes it needs to defend itself.  I know full well that if it was Israel defending itself from Russia, Biden would not hesitate, regardless of the consequences. A study of the 1973 war proves this.

Also what it's about, it's about Americans and Europeans smugly complacent with a mode of life they believe will go on forever, and hence there is no reason to take risks. We made this situation, not Ukraine, and as far as I'm concerned we can, and should, be doing one hell of a lot more. 

It's not about collapse, it's about saving as many Ukrainians from Russia's war of the cities as possible. A country that has already lost can still  do immense damage and take thousands of lives. I know, it damn near happened to my family in 1944. 

It's a Mig29, exactly the same model as the ones Ukraine already use. There is no escalation here. If we supplying F35s I would get the point but they arent.

 

 

[bojan]

40 minutes ago, jaro said:

Unconfirmed yet...

If it is unconfirmed rumor (or "Army level BS" as X-Files noted), why post it?

Edited March 11, 2022 by bojan

[Inhapi]

OKay, possibly Ukraian propagande, claim of recordings of a Russian tanks (yes, real tanks this time) in an ambush.....

IMHO not much real damage seems to have been done.....

What do people far more expert on these things than me think of it ? 

 

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/kijk/2022/03/10/tanks-arvato_47320544/

Edited March 11, 2022 by Inhapi

[Josh]

46 minutes ago, Sardaukar said:

Russia has bit of problem in that their units are pretty light on supply vehicles. They rely on railroads a lot and have 30 000 troops or so dedicated to rail  repair in military.

Problem for them is that main rail nodes are still being held by Ukranians. Thus, supply problems.

The success in the south can partially be attributed to the rail connection that runs over the Kerch bridge and back into southern Ukraine (and also the drier climate).