Brexit

[BansheeOne]

Well of course there are various alternate options of organizing free trade with the EU, most of which have been discussed, including lately in Parliament - a customs union, Single Market 2.0, Norway plus, Canada double-plus, etc. Each comes with certain advantages and drawbacks, each will need time to hammer out, and none has gotten a majority so far (though the customs union came close) - mostly, I think, because each will piss off large parts of the electorate which voted either remain or leave.

[Harold Jones]

No matter how much time they have, doesn't the whole soft Brexit thing founder on the rock of the Irish no hard border requirement?

[seahawk]

 

 

The whole idea that free trade with Europe can ONLY be available if you buy into their version of Sam's club is obtuse. We have a few issues with NAFTA but we didn't have to give up our political sovereignty to Trudeau in order to sell industrial goods to Canada.

 

 

Of the EU's four principles, seems to me that Britain would be fine if they had an exception on free movement of populations. Given that the UK is an island anyways, so different physically than the continental borders where having checkpoints would be a pain in the ass, I would have thought it would be possible to have accommodated that rather than all this drama. But for the EU, apparently not.

 

 

Britain wants to make their own trade deals and be free of any EU legislation, so just dropping free movement is not enough. Only the hard Brexit can give the UK what it needs - freedom and control.

[DB]

 

 

I could see electric cars working pretty well in the UK,

 

Electric, absolutely. Self driving? Not so sure.

 

I wonder how hard it would be for a self driving car to switch between driving on the right and on the left side of the road.

 

Much more interesting to me would be the way it's supposed to cope with the huge national variation in road markings and signage.

 

The proportion of roads in the US that are divided - what we call "dual carriageway" is much higher than here, and as anyone who has visited here knows, the roads are often ridiculously narrow but still two-way. I wonder how autonomous cars manage having to reverse up a narrow road into a passing place because they're faced by a tractor with 4 tonnes of grain in a trailer.

[Harold Jones]

 

 

 

I could see electric cars working pretty well in the UK,

 

Electric, absolutely. Self driving? Not so sure.

 

I wonder how hard it would be for a self driving car to switch between driving on the right and on the left side of the road.

 

Much more interesting to me would be the way it's supposed to cope with the huge national variation in road markings and signage.

 

The proportion of roads in the US that are divided - what we call "dual carriageway" is much higher than here, and as anyone who has visited here knows, the roads are often ridiculously narrow but still two-way. I wonder how autonomous cars manage having to reverse up a narrow road into a passing place because they're faced by a tractor with 4 tonnes of grain in a trailer.

 

Here in the mountain west it would be having to back down single lane mountain road after meeting a loaded logging truck or similar. The question that just occurred to me is how does the self driving car know where to park. I mean, navigating from my house to a friend's house in downtown Denver would be quite simple, but finding a parking spot in their neighborhood is a serious challenge.

[Adam_S]

No matter how much time they have, doesn't the whole soft Brexit thing founder on the rock of the Irish no hard border requirement?

 

Presumably the hope is that enough of a consensus can be built that parliament can basically just ignore the whole problem and ride roughshod over the DUP.

[Harold Jones]

Based on what I've seen so far I don't think that will happen. Anything that persuades Labour MPs to support a soft Brexit will likely drive Tory Brexiters to oppose it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, that pretty much is what has been happening. However, I think there is a large rump of the Tories that can be classed as moderate, who clearly WANT a deal, and many of them would just as happily remain in the EU. And that is a split that is also present in Labour, you have a large rump of Labour (lets be fair, lets say all labour) that want a deal just to keep people in jobs, but there is still a significant block that think leaving the EU is a massive mistake and would happily remain if people gave the green light to it.

 

My own personal view (and its no crystal ball) is that we will have a bill to pass Theresa May's bill, as long as its put to the people first, AND they are given the option to vote to remain. It may be a 3 part referendum on 'Remain', 'Withdraw with Deal'. 'Customs deal'. I think that is the ONLY way they can get the diverse opinions to consolidate around voting for the deal. Yes, May doesnt want a second vote, and im not mad about it. But if the people were the way into this mess, I think they are probably the only way out of it too.

 

As for Northern Ireland, I dont think we are going to be the ones putting up customs barriers. The idea there is going to be a back way into the United Kingdom via the Irish border I think ignores geography. Its not going to be cost effective to ship goods into Northern Ireland and then back out again via Northern Ireland. But again, just my personal view. Its not the Belgian/French border we are talking about here.

[seahawk]

The problem is if you do not enforce the customs barriers on one border, you can not enforce them on any border, or all other countries can sue you at the WTO.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I dont think we WANT any trade barriers with the EU. That is not the problem and never has been. The problem has been the insistence on the part of the EU on open borders, which I believe has absolutely nothing to do with the WTO. If it was, Donald Trump would already have tried it.

[Josh]

Wouldn't an open North Irish border allow the free flow of immigrants/migrants which is counter to one of the key two points of the Brexiters?

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think its going to be very evident whats going on when people start getting off the boat at Stranraer and Holyhead. Its not got the infrastructure that Dover has, the idea that somehow people traffic in that area is going to spike is just not believe-able. If anything the infrastructure has declined since the 1990's because there no longer are any boat trains. Besides, there would be nothing to stop us setting up an inspection office in those places on the UK side, and very little the DUP or Northern Ireland could do about it if we did.

 

When only a few short months ago we were suffering an influx of Iranians crossing the English channel via Dingy, I think we probably have and will continue to have more issues with our Southern borders than our Northern ones. But hey, just my personal opinion.

[glenn239]

I dont think we WANT any trade barriers with the EU. That is not the problem and never has been. The problem has been the insistence on the part of the EU on open borders, which I believe has absolutely nothing to do with the WTO. If it was, Donald Trump would already have tried it.

 

If only you were an island, there might have been some sort of work around.

[seahawk]

I dont think we WANT any trade barriers with the EU. That is not the problem and never has been. The problem has been the insistence on the part of the EU on open borders, which I believe has absolutely nothing to do with the WTO. If it was, Donald Trump would already have tried it.

 

It was always clear that the EU wanted to punish the UK for seeking freedom and control. The desire to control your own borders should never have been an issue. But the EUSSR can not have a break away Republic, so that it does not end like the USSR.

[Panzermann]

 

I dont think we WANT any trade barriers with the EU. That is not the problem and never has been. The problem has been the insistence on the part of the EU on open borders, which I believe has absolutely nothing to do with the WTO. If it was, Donald Trump would already have tried it.

 

It was always clear that the EU wanted to punish the UK for seeking freedom and control. The desire to control your own borders should never have been an issue. But the EUSSR can not have a break away Republic, so that it does not end like the USSR.

 

 

while yes, cannot have anyone getting out of line, but HM governemnt makes it too easy to push them around, because they do not get anything done, so in the end the EU gets to dictate. After two and a half years the British still have not made up their mind what they want. They say nay to everything.

 

 

What I do not understand is why tehre are now extensions. two and a half bloody years of inability to get a decision on the British side. when you wait so long you only get hard breadsticks.

[Ssnake]

It was always clear that the EU wanted to punish the UK for seeking freedom and control. The desire to control your own borders should never have been an issue. But the EUSSR can not have a break away Republic, so that it does not end like the USSR.

 

Bollox.

If the EU truly wanted to punish Britain, there would be no Brextension. It would give Britain exactly what the Tory extremists want, No Deal. The ball has been put on the penalty point, and the goalie has left the field.

[Mistral]

 

It was always clear that the EU wanted to punish the UK for seeking freedom and control. The desire to control your own borders should never have been an issue. But the EUSSR can not have a break away Republic, so that it does not end like the USSR.

 

Bollox.

If the EU truly wanted to punish Britain, there would be no Brextension. It would give Britain exactly what the Tory extremists want, No Deal. The ball has been put on the penalty point, and the goalie has left the field.

 

 

But the EU. But the evil EU….. nah I have nothing. Best I can come up is that they want to punish them for leaving by NOT letting them leave. I am sure it makes sense someplace.

[Josh]

The EU has not only allowed an extension, they also have explicitly ruled that Brexit can be bypassed if the UK makes that political decision. I can't say that's an unfair deal. What I think they won't do is give the UK the freedom to regulate the free flow of EU citizens while getting to remain inside the economic zone. Britain was already a rather special case in that it kept its currency.

[RETAC21]

The EU has not only allowed an extension, they also have explicitly ruled that Brexit can be bypassed if the UK makes that political decision. I can't say that's an unfair deal. What I think they won't do is give the UK the freedom to regulate the free flow of EU citizens while getting to remain inside the economic zone. Britain was already a rather special case in that it kept its currency.

 

The currency thing wasn't mandatory by any means, Poland, Sweden and others have kept their currency. The problem here is that May has put so many red lines to keep everyone happy that has ruled out all options. Still the Evil EU has allowed the UK to choose what it wants to do with total freedom and all the time of the world, but what it cannot do is allow the UK to create the rules in the EU.

Edited April 10, 2019 by RETAC21

[Stuart Galbraith]

The EU has not only allowed an extension, they also have explicitly ruled that Brexit can be bypassed if the UK makes that political decision. I can't say that's an unfair deal. What I think they won't do is give the UK the freedom to regulate the free flow of EU citizens while getting to remain inside the economic zone. Britain was already a rather special case in that it kept its currency.

 

That misunderstands the reason why. We werent a special case because the EU was being magnanimous. We were a special case because when we tried currency alignment (as a first step towards adopting the Euro) the economy collapsed. One of the problems of sustaining an economy based on financial services.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

 

As Retac says, it wasnt compulsory in any case, though we certainly had the ambition to join under the Major Government. I do have to wonder if they had been successful whether Brexit would ever have arisen on the horizon, not least because it would have made British manufacturers on a level pegging with their European counterparts.

 

Credit where its due to the EU on the extension, its a smart move. And to be honest, I think its pretty much owed purely to Donald Tusk. The short extension would only have played into the hands of the hardline Brexiters who want to leave without a deal. I think the longer this drags on, the less and less attractive an option that looks. More and more companies are piping up and saying 'You have to be mad to want this'. Nobody is playing the 'oh a hardline Brexit wont be a problem' card, not after Honda and Nissan.

[Ssnake]

Just all part of that dictatorial plot to keep London under the heel of Brussels.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well whatever criticism anyone, including myself, has ever made of the EU, they seem to be the only buggers that know what they are doing.

[RETAC21]

 

The EU has not only allowed an extension, they also have explicitly ruled that Brexit can be bypassed if the UK makes that political decision. I can't say that's an unfair deal. What I think they won't do is give the UK the freedom to regulate the free flow of EU citizens while getting to remain inside the economic zone. Britain was already a rather special case in that it kept its currency.

 

That misunderstands the reason why. We werent a special case because the EU was being magnanimous. We were a special case because when we tried currency alignment (as a first step towards adopting the Euro) the economy collapsed. One of the problems of sustaining an economy based on financial services.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

 

As Retac says, it wasnt compulsory in any case, though we certainly had the ambition to join under the Major Government. I do have to wonder if they had been successful whether Brexit would ever have arisen on the horizon, not least because it would have made British manufacturers on a level pegging with their European counterparts.

 

Credit where its due to the EU on the extension, its a smart move. And to be honest, I think its pretty much owed purely to Donald Tusk. The short extension would only have played into the hands of the hardline Brexiters who want to leave without a deal. I think the longer this drags on, the less and less attractive an option that looks. More and more companies are piping up and saying 'You have to be mad to want this'. Nobody is playing the 'oh a hardline Brexit wont be a problem' card, not after Honda and Nissan.

 

 

No, it was the evil bureaucrats in Brussels as the agreement required that 27 countries agree, and many have incentive to kick the UK out for good once and for all (looking at Macron here...). Problems are the same as before, it's just that they will be back in autumn. Good for the guys that have to relocate, now they can look for schools without going back and forth every week.

[BansheeOne]

Looks like a Brexit Halloween then. Unless the prospect of having to participate in the European elections actually lights a fire under Parliament to reach a solution before 23 May, which seems to be the main point of the exercise. Parties are understandably reluctant to go to the trouble of nominations and campaigning, just for the elected MEPs to go home after a couple months. And per snap poll numbers, election results would hardly be good advertising for most of them.

 

 

Poll: Tories facing crushing defeat if UK holds EU elections

 

By Benjamin Fox | EURACTIV.com 10. Apr. 2019 (updated: 7:28)

 

Theresa May’s Conservatives would face a crushing defeat if the UK were to take part in next month’s European elections, according to a poll published on Wednesday (10 April).

 

May’s party would take only 23% of the vote compared to 38% for the Labour party, according to the poll for the Open Europe think-tank by Hanbury Strategy. Nigel Farage’s newly created Brexit party would take 10%, while his former party UKIP would claim 8%.

 

In the 2014 European elections, UKIP topped the poll but has seen most of its MEPs leave the party under the leadership of Gerard Batten, who has moved the party further towards the extreme-right and overt Islamophobia.

 

Among the pro-European parties, the Liberal Democrats would take 8% according to the poll, with the Change UK party launched by pro-Remain MPs who defected from Labour and the Conservatives, and the Green party, both on 4%.

 

The survey also suggests that Remain supporters would be more likely to vote – 47% compared to 38% of Leave voters.

 

However, pre-campaign surveys ahead of European elections in the UK have tended to under-represent support for Eurosceptic parties. That volatility would be particularly acute amid the turmoil over Brexit, and Farage’s party would expect to poll far higher.

 

[...]

 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/poll-tories-facing-crushing-defeat-if-uk-holds-eu-elections/

 

I have to say though, the second season of "Brexit" is far more tightly written so far than the first, which was kinda drawn out and only really picked up towards the end.

[Mistral]

It is only thing that is entertaining in the news I agree.