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Everything posted by DB

  1. So this is for the F130 engine, one of the BR700 series. There will be a local production facility in Indianapolis and the initial contact is for about 1/5th of the total mentioned above.
  2. I suppose we should be looking at what they copy next to see what's the best thing out there, then.
  3. Ah, much better. post-hoc rationalisation that the event was "obvious" rather than being genuinely predictable.
  4. Fact Check summary: The numbers in the chart can be extracted from VAERS, but there are caveats. I thought I'd revisit the VAERS Reporting System to see if I could check some of the numbers again. Previously I had been unable to match the numbers shown in the report linked to by Sunday, and this time I was unable to match the numbers from the chart above also, at first. However, I spent a bit more time experimenting and can match those numbers now. If one selects "All" instead of "The United States / Territories /Unknown" for the region filter one includes all "Foreign" entries in the VAERS database as well as US ones. If one is looking at *rates* inside the US, which is a rational way to look at the risk, then one should be looking at the number of adverse events compared to the number of administered vaccines. If one assumes that the US tends to report consistently to VAERS (a few thoughts on this at the end), then one should look at US VAERS reports against the US vaccination numbers. It seems unlikely that foreign reports to a US system would be as consistent. The data selection restricted to the US etc. region, shows 6,887 deaths (for all vaccines, not just COVID ones) in 2021 compared to less than 200 for all vaccines for previous years. This is in association with an increase in VAERS reports from 52,664 to 613,299 and noting that 2021 is not yet a full year. Selecting for all COVID vaccines alone in the same regions yields 6675 deaths and 601,887 event reports in total, so it's clear that the massive increase in numbers is correlated with the COVID vaccination campaign and it would be extremely unlikely to be due to any other cause. Year / Event / Vaccine (report code) / Event Count / Percentage of all event reports 2021 Death COVID19 (COVID19 (JANSSEN)) (1203) 681 0.12% 2021 Death COVID19 (COVID19 (MODERNA)) (1201) 3,282 0.59% 2021 Death COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) (1200) 3,549 0.63% 2021 Death COVID19 (COVID19 (UNKNOWN)) (1202) 30 0.01% You can also show other Event outcomes like the next most severe category: 2021 Life Threatening COVID19 (COVID19 (JANSSEN)) (1203) 1,030 0.18% 2021 Life Threatening COVID19 (COVID19 (MODERNA)) (1201) 3,619 0.65% 2021 Life Threatening COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) (1200) 4,475 0.80% 2021 Life Threatening COVID19 (COVID19 (UNKNOWN)) (1202) 44 0.01% I believe that it's possible for multiple event categories to overlap, so for example "Life Threatening" events may also be reported as "Permanently Disabling", but I'm not sure about this. 2021 Permanent Disability COVID19 (COVID19 (JANSSEN)) (1203) 805 0.14% 2021 Permanent Disability COVID19 (COVID19 (MODERNA)) (1201) 3,414 0.61% 2021 Permanent Disability COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) (1200) 4,434 0.79% 2021 Permanent Disability COVID19 (COVID19 (UNKNOWN)) (1202) 31 0.01% The VAERS Reporting system is awesome, but it doesn't on its own determine causation - individual investigations would be needed to ensure that an adverse event was indeed associated with the vaccine with which it has been associated, and there will be heightened sensitivity to potential adverse reactions due to the scale and public discussion about the vaccines, but the numbers are as shown. I'd be interested to know how many COVID vaccines have been administered in the US compared to all others combined in the reporting period. On the inclusion of "Foreign" reports in VAERS, "Foreign" reports show the following for 2021 (Selecting for COVID only): 2021 Death 8,164 5.75% Life Threatening 6,556 4.61% Permanent Disability 11,331 7.97% Congenital Anomaly / Birth Defect * 132 0.09% Hospitalized 29,239 20.58% Existing Hospitalization Prolonged 519 0.37% Emergency Room * 10,240 7.21% Office Visit * 6,944 4.89% None of the above 84,129 59.20% "The United States / Territories / Unknown" shows the following: 2021 Death 6,675 1.19% Life Threatening 8,356 1.49% Permanent Disability 7,845 1.40% Congenital Anomaly / Birth Defect * 297 0.05% Hospitalized 30,989 5.54% Existing Hospitalization Prolonged 280 0.05% Emergency Room / Office Visit ** 33 0.01% Emergency Room * 67,719 12.10% Office Visit * 101,953 18.22% None of the above 377,740 67.52% In other words, Foreign reports have a higher fraction of more severe outcomes, which suggests to me that they are "pre-filtered" and more minor adverse reactions may not be reported. Therefore, if the "Foreign" reports are included in the US Reports, then they will inflate the percentages of Event reports that are more severe. Worse, if they are included in the figures that are used to calculate US rates of adverse reactions then it is likely that they will be compared with the number of US vaccinations, rather than with the world-wide rate of vaccinations. Even worse than that, the likelihood that the Foreign reporting rate would match the US reporting rate is low, so rendering Foreign reports essentially meaningless without further information that cannot be gleaned from the database. Anyway, all that is why I restricted my further searches to the US, so that rates could be calculated based on the known number of US vaccinations conducted and assuming that VAERS is being used consistently within that scope. One further note: the percentages shown when added together significantly exceed 100%, confirming that multiple Events can be reported for a single case. If you want to know what hte asterisks mean, you can check out VAERS yourself, this post is already too long.
  5. DB

    2021 Obituary

    Desalination plants are probably more appropriate than out-and-out distillation, and the UK has some experience due to a large scale system in London. https://www.water-technology.net/projects/water-desalination/ I don't think that his is a particularly practical option in the timescales involved, however. I can't help but think that people are beating on the UK's decision here primarily because of the person arguing about it, rather than with any sense of the practicality or otherwise of trying to hold onto the place.
  6. Seems an odd definition of "Black Swan" to me - if one applies root cause analysis to many catastrophic events then one can generate perfect hindsight for most. Truly random processes with calculated occurrence rates in the millions of years that have extinction level event severities would be "Black Swans" by my personal standards. That contrasts with the definition given above in that hindsight is not needed - the events are predicted but are discounted by society in general because the occurrence rate is so low that it drops the priority below that society's tolerance threshold. For events like this volcano, though, people are simply misunderstanding the level of risk that is carried and so are not making an appropriate risk assessment. Or maybe they are, and have insurance.
  7. No, really? My comment was about the "transfer" of technology from the US to China via Taiwan and you think I wasn't implying that the Sidewinder and AIM-120 technology may have been transferred via some route or other? Of course, the similarity between the Chinese missiles and the ones I mentioned is probably a complete coincidence.
  8. That's the point you're missing. It's humanity that is unspeakable.
  9. Corresponding article. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/dsei/2021/09/15/japan-could-become-partner-nation-on-uk-led-future-fighter-effort-says-program-director/
  10. The UK enacted laws that reached further than the European requirement. As I think I mentioned, I believe that this was to deliberately suppress the old measures for whatever reason.
  11. Barrow is currently building two Astutes and two Dreadnoughts. Dates for them clearing the shipyard are not easy to determine, because construction times have been very variable. The second of the two Astutes, Agincourt, is due to commission in 2026 so one could presume that Agamemnon will be earlier than that. I think that the Dreadnoughts would follow. There is only one slipway at Barrow, but construction is mainly performed on modular "rings" that are fitted out vertically and then rotated to be assembled all in the cover of a Dock Hall. Judging by the Google Maps view, there is be room to assemble two submarines in the Devonshire Dock Hall at a time, possibly three. This is academic, however, as it seems likely that final assembly would have to take place in Australia. On leasing, if the current UK tasking was to ensure that a submarine was in place in the Pacific, I could see that role being taken over by one of the Astutes being transferred to Aus for operations, with refit rotations as per normal RN tasking. That would presumably be possible when the full Astute fleet was completed.
  12. Let's hope this lasts, because I fancy another trip. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58628491
  13. if they're reported as cases in hospital with COVID, they reflect accurately the stress on the hospital system. In the UK at least, a driver for lockdown measures has been the risk of overwhelming the NHS, which we have nevertheless come close to twice. It's transparently reported as such, so it's only "cooking the books" as far as I'm concerned for people who are resorting to desperate measures to support their agenda.
  14. Destroying banana plantations? It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good. Can't stand bananas.
  15. Not really. In this case, the claim is that people who are admitted to hospital for other reasons are being reported as COVID hospitalisations, whereas they're being reported as hospitalisation of people with COVID. This is not a claim that COVID caused them to be hospitalised, only that they need to be isolated from hospital "normal business". Obviously having to separate COVID-positive cases who are in for some other life-threatening condition from those who "only" have the life-threatening condition inevitably puts pressure on resources that isn't going to be any less than hospitalising COVID-only patients does. Nevertheless, Ivanhoe, a rational explanation as to why this isn't "cooking the books" (in my mind at least) means that its use as evidence of a greater conspiracy is flawed at best and mendacious at worst.
  16. Yes, that works well but it provides only point data. In theory at least, SAR provides very good area data. I think it was first demonstrated well in Italy for earthquake regions, but the same principles hold. In Italy, of course, scientists go to prison for not reading the tea leaves correctly. I suppose it's a step up from ceremonial sacrifice to appease the gods.
  17. There are certain things that can be done. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar images can detect the kind of ground heave (it can be millimetre scale) that is often associated with the lead-up to an eruption, but it's not easy (or perhaps even possible) to accurately assess the detailed geological formations involved. At least with this type of eruption there's time to move - it's not gone off like Mount St Helens, or generated a pyroclastic cloud.
  18. Every bit of technical information that arrives in Taiwan also arrives in Beijing, so no. For the JF-17, I see that Sidewinder and AMRAAM arrived safely via some route, but it looks like they only got the back half of the F-16 and had to bodge the front of a Mirage onto it. I suppose it's more capable than the A-4.
  19. Given the infection control regime that is mandated for patients who test positive for COVID-19, and which is eminently reasonable, it makes more sense to assess the systematic stress placed on the hospital system from the absolute number of cases than from some arbitrary assessment of disease severity. The NHS also records the number of patients who are specifically being treated by ventilation as a separate metric. I see a headline grab for conspiracy theorists' clicks, not a sensible assessment.
  20. I know everyone here is getting older, and sometimes that means their prescription can't quite keep up with modern website design standards... At some point, though, everyone will remember that there is a "paste as plain text" popup that shows when you paste something into the reply box. (Seriously though, and this applies to JWB in particular, not Banshee, please remember that not a single one of your posts can be read by someone using the alternate forum skin.)
  21. I hear that the French have some spare capacity.
  22. Time to invade Canada, there can't be many borders more arbitrary than that long, straight line.
  23. Nothing, Doug. Nothing. Unless someone reassesses the feathers from the Mayans (or was it Incans?) and predicts another apocalypse.
  24. If you're quoting from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS Then it says no such thing at the time I looked. There is not much official information, and if this deal was first broached as a concept in March and more formally only in June, I doubt that it's a fully formed thing just yet. I can't read the article linked by Adam_S because it's paywalled, but as far as i can tell there has been no public statement defining the type of submarine to be supplied, or the types to be leased if any. the French have really thrown the toys out of the pram, which was inevitable I suppose, but it's not in their interests long-term to spite allies when they are in a relatively vulnerable position regarding Pacific Ocean territory vulnerabilities. Can they deploy a CVBG to the region in times of tension?
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