Corinthian

Being a regional superpower risks being "colonized" by others. Beijing wants to be one global superpower. Hence, the size of the PLAN, the Silk Road Project, bases in other places, etc. It really wants "all under heaven" and that heaven is China.

Problem with China's demographics is while they still would have a greater population than that of the USA in 20 years, a lot of them will be getting old. But yeah, I think those who point out that China's demographics spells doom because of its prior population controls are overstating it. China still can turn that around IMO. Methinks after gaining Taiwan, China will be stopping its territorial acquisitions in the Pacific side of things. Instead it will look north across the Amur. China will prefer to have "satellite" countries, where governments are friendly to Beijing, instead of outright invasions like many people fear will happen to the Philippines. Beijing will prefer other countries to "pay it tribute" just like pre-colonial times, and if these tribute countries have the local populace going against the government, Beijing will put pressure or provide support for the puppet government to suppress any dissent. China wants a future where it is the sole superpower, a complete reversal of its time when it was being "partitioned" by the West. It won't invade other countries for complete control, but rather through governments that will be increasingly authoritarian. ChiCom imperialism will be one that is similar to Imperial China in the past - surrounded by various kingdoms providing it tribute. Much cheaper that way.

BTW, there's a possibility I'd be getting water cannoned by the Chinese coast guard in 2025 as I am looking to join a tour to Pagasa (Thitu) Island in the Spratlys. 😄

If China really wants to win, it should tome down its aggressiveness, make goodwill gestures that are painful to swallow like abandon the 10-Dash Line and abandon its island forts in the Spratlys, take down its invasion talk of Taiwan and instead talk more about cooperation etc etc. But it isn't, and it is increasingly unlikely for that to happen with Xi Jinping at the helm, because they've gone too far already, and turning back would be an admission that its rhetoric and actions have been more damaging to it than it thought. They have taken the Han Chinese superiority pill and cannot go back. They have to continue lest lose face and they cannot afford to have that happen because for Beijing it is a sign of weakness, and it was weakness when China was nearly cannibalized by Western powers in the mid 19th and early 20th centuries.

If the tighter tech controls such as semiconductors being imposed by the USA against China work, if Chinese spies fail to get important tech from Western companies, it's possible. China's advantage is that it has an authoritarian government that does not really care how much it costs to develop ever advanced weapons systems. China is likely looking at discarded US weapons tech (e.g., the rail gun) and building upon these, taking advantage of prior progress made by the USA. However, the USA is also progressing in other areas such as stealth tech, hypersonics, and sensors, among others. The USA's problem is that developing these are expensive and subject to differing politics among competing personalities. As for China playing the long game and waiting for Taiwan to fall into its bosom, that is becoming increasingly unlikely. The difference with HK is that there's nothing much separating it and China. Hence, China was able to snuff out the pro-democracy movement there with relative ease. Technology has made that immensely possible. It also helps that it already co-opted the HK government before the suppression really started. Taiwan, OTOH, is an island democracy with decades of being separate from China. The population in Taiwan is younger, with many with no memory of mainland China. Many view themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and that identity is why China is increasingly afraid because in a few more decades, the old generation that fled China with Chiang Kai Shek would be dead, and those remaining are the younger generations who see Taiwan as their only country, with no real ties to the mainland. This makes invading Taiwan much harder as more young Taiwanese would rather fight for their country and keep their independence. Beijing has been trying to influence Taiwanese politics and largely failing these past years because of its aggressiveness. Beijing seems to be tone deaf, and keeps on being aggressive, thinking this will make other countries become more submissive to it. I don't really understand why Beijing is very aggressive, I think Xi Jinping thinks it is running out of time, just like Putin probably thinks Russia is running out of time. Far flung Chinese fishing fleets poaching waters around the world, and a hunger for resources might be a symptom that not all is great in China. A lot of people in China are getting hungry, the poverty gap I think is increasing rather than decreasing, and many Chinese in the lower economic strata are probably already realizing that their interests are not in Beijing's heart. Beijing is lucky that technology has reached a point where it can effectively put its boot on the face of the populace. Beijing is afraid that the rest of the world will stop going to China to have goods manufactured. The COVID pandemic showed just how vulnerable other economies are when you have your manufactured goods coming from another country. Beijing is afraid that with economies decoupling from it, it will lose the source of its economic growth, and with that any tech advantage it can gain, as well as the tech that can be used to control people. And when the economy goes down the shitter and many Chinese laborers suddenly can't eat because they don't have money for food, the people living in Zhongnanhai might feel increasingly insecure. China needs Taiwan even more now with the semiconductor sanctions. TSMC etc foundries are prime targets for seizure. Expect PLA spec ops types to seize these factories in any future invasion.

Something of a bright spot for 2028 if China continues its bullying in the SCS: If China continues to be an aggressive neighbor, this possibly diminishes the prospect of a Sara Duterte presidency in 2028. Right now, public support for Sara is not as high because of her silence on the SCS issue, and with China continuing to be a bully in the region, Filipinos are increasingly being anti-China, pro-USA. If Sara fails in her presidential bid in 2028 and whoever replaces Marcos is pro-USA, this will be politically disastrous for Beijing. Beijing has three options in the near future: 1) Launch its Taiwan invasion before 2028 while the Philippines is militarily weak and the USN outnumbered in terms of hulls with some key US weapons still not yet fielded in numbers (Mako, B-21, drones) 2) Launch its Taiwan invasion after 2028 with a friendlier Manila government 3) Dial back its aggressiveness and rhetoric, and be once again a "US partner" then wait again for a decade or so for the USA to weaken politically (especially internally) before it launches its invasion of Taiwan.

A Philippines that is securely a US ally in the event of a war between China and Taiwan is crucial to US operations in support of Taiwan. If in such event, the Philippines may not necessarily intervene by sending troops, aircraft, and ships to fight the PLA. However, it may provide other support such as logistics (basing) and surveillance. The Philippines is getting some AESA radars both fixed and mobile from Japan. One fixed and one mobile set have arrived already. Around three more fixed sets are to arrive from Japan. This will provide crucial radar coverage in the western Pacific particularly the South China Sea and Bashi Channel. The USA can tap onto this radar picture. US will be able to use bases in Cagayan and Batanes to support AEW and ASW ops. I reckon this kind of support will be allowed by the Philippines as it is has a smaller footprint. A strong Philippine military will also be a deterrent force for China, even if Manila will declare neutrality in the event of a war (but still be tacitly supporting the USA). BrahMos and HIMARS missile batteries will give the PLA some concern, and so will likely leave forces in the South China Sea to hold that flank, instead of committing these north around Taiwan. Philippines will likely be a firm US ally contributing troops and materiel if China attacks Philippine bases in support for its invasion of Taiwan.

I am of the opinion that China will make its move within 5 years as well. The USA and Europe are ramping up their defense capabilities but it will take time for all of that uberwaffen to be produced and fielded. But it will be there. Before the USA is able to widen the capability gap vs China, China will have to act while the USN remains smaller than the PLAN. The entry of the Constellation FFGs will put more VLS tubes in the water. Same for more Virginia class SSNs. Right now though, US shipyards are having issues hence delays on both Constellation FFGs and Virginia class SSNs hitting the water. These two will give the USN close parity vs China in terms of number of hulls, and overmatch in terms of VLS tubes. Another is the Mako. While not yet chosen and fielded, Lockheed has said it is ready to be produced if the USN buys it. Having the F-35 + Mako combo will give Beijing planners some serious thought. With all the uberwaffen in the pipeline, and with Beijing still catching up capability wise, Beijing has to act before the USN can seriously overmatch the PLA and PLAN, which is within 5 years. In fact, I am thinking it will happen after the Philippine elections in 2028, and possible action by China in 2029, because Marcos' term will end in 2028, and it is possible Sara Duterte will win. If that happens, Manila will once again pivot to Beijing (despite the people not wanting that), thus securing China's southern flank when it decides to invade Taiwan. Manila need not be an active ally of Beijing, it may do what is usually does: be non-confrontational. If Sara wins and China invades Taiwan, it is possible that Manila will deny the US any basing support, while calling for an immediate end of hostilities between China and Taiwan. This is crucial for China as the SCS will be denied to the USA, securing southern flank against USN subs and surface warships operating the SCS. The USN will also have to rely more on Guam and Japan to support its forces, and longer flight times for USAF without Philippine basing support. Without the Philippines as an effective US ally, China can release its fleet based at southern end of the country to support operations at Taiwan. This also opens the Bashi Channel to China, basically the East Asian version of the GIUK gap, and will enable submarines and surface warships from the PLAN bases at the SCS to go through the Bashi Channel to meet the USN further west off Taiwan. FYI, China has been sending survey ships to the Philippine Sea, no doubt mapping the seafloor particularly Benham Rise for areas where their subs can hide. China has fewer capable subs vs USN but with its shipbuilding capacity, it can produce more of their current and latest capable subs (which have been much quieter than previous generation but still not as quiet as USN Virginia) in a few years. US political support of the current Marcos admin is crucial to ensure the Philippines remains an effective US ally post-Marcos 2028.

The NJ earthquake was the result of moving USS NJ to a dry dock. Her weight caused the Earth's crust under where she was docked to compress for so many years, so when she was transferred to a dry dock the resulting rebound of the Earth's crust created tremors that, multiplied by her awesomeness factor of 20, resulted into the M4.8 earthquake in NJ.

OMG I don't ever remember posting that bwuhahahahaha Oh wow so much cringe.... 😅

Yes, in 10 years 😅

Yes. I figured that with Alejandro's reply, the 1st Tank Bde initially had the BVs during the early fighting in the war at Chernihiv, putting back the BMs back into operation subsequently after when able to as the demands of war required. I guess I'll do yet another BV but in mod 2017 version for a 1st Tank Bde Chernihiv 2022.

Ah.... Thanks thanks.

They really should have posted a video of a lone trailing fighter and then title the video "First successful stealth flight of the B-21 Raider." People would then comment "Where's the bomber?" and NG should answer "Yes."