Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[Daan]

Video of Armenian troops shooting down a hapless Azeri An-2:

The first Russian 'war reporters' have also arrived on the scene. I wonder how long it will take before we see a more open Russian presence in this conflict.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Daan

[glenn239]

First report I'd like to see is what the conflict is about and what are the sides?

[Roman Alymov]

12 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

My assumption is that the Russians are sympathetic to the Armenians privately and are in favour of the status quo ante. The Russian public sees this as a spat but if it drags on and if the Azeris expand air attacks against infrastructure and the like, I suspect the mood will sour fast. 

I’m afraid it is simplistic view. Yes ethnic Armenians are, traditionally, integral part of Russian society (some of them living here for centuries – for example my one of districts of my native Rostov-on-Don was once separate city Nakhichevan-on-Don  founded by Catherine the Great decree in 1779 as new home for Armenians fleeing another genocide in Crimea (Ottoman Empire at that time).  Current Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is half-Armenian etc. Armenians (once most educated nation of USSR in terms of number of university graduates per 1000) are also traditionally overrepresented in Russian Army officer core. To some extent, Armenians overtook the positions once occupied by Jews (as many of them left post-USSR space) and Georgians (who have ruined their traditionally favorable positions by declaring hostility to Russia). Yes  Russian grass roots society (with all its xenophobia traditions) are more favorable to Armenians, who are both Christians (first Christian nation on planet in fact) and intelligencia while Azeris are Muslims and street market traders (perceived to be organized crime outlet).  Biut time is going by and, thanks to massive migration to Russia from Azerbaijan, Azeries are growing in their influence while Armenians, especially in last years under anti-Russian PM elected, are not growing one if not loosing.

  Now both sides (Armenia and Azerbaijan) are struggling to attract Russian public sympathy while Russian state media are sort of sitting on the fence providing balanced information. For example in today’s prime time talk show on Russian main TV channel both Armenian PM and Azeri President were speaking live in excellent Russian  to audience (but not each other) – probably first case of this sort in history

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uU4Z63lLk4

Seems like Russian leadership see this war as another attempt to drag Russia into war, and are doing their best to avoid it for now.

[carrierlost]

Fighting as seen from Armenian positions.

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by carrierlost

[bojan]

0:04 ex-Yugo  20/3mm M55 AA gun on MT-LB

[carrierlost]

Russian equipment claimed to be moving through Iran port on Anzali to Armenia. 

 

[Josh]

I have a hard time seeing Russia being neutral with Turkey being involved. "Just The Tayyip" is pushing his way into the Russian sphere of influence and I can't imagine Putin suffering that for very long regardless of his other feelings for one side or the other.

[Roman Alymov]

Stepanakert under fire

 

Another Armenian video

More videos from both sides here

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6206391.html

[Simon Tan]

I do not see the calculation for this Azeri offensive. They may well be struggling with depressed oil prices but that is because Baku is hyperinflated. Perhaps the logic is to use up some of the stuff they bought, but there really is no way for the Azeris to take and hold Karabakh without resorting to ethnic cleansing.

[seahawk]

What would be the problem with that?

[Simon Tan]

Ethnic cleansing of the majority population?

[seahawk]

What needs to be done, needs to be done.

[Simon Tan]

That presumes they can actually take physical control of Karabakh. I do not think they can.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

That presumes they can actually take physical control of Karabakh. I do not think they can.

It also supposes that Russia will tolerate an ethnic cleansing campaign.  But why would they?

[Mistral]

57 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

It also supposes that Russia will tolerate an ethnic cleansing campaign.  But why would they?

Why Russia? I thought smitting ethinc cleansers was the West's forte!

[Simon Tan]

It's not ethnic cleansing if they are Christians.

[bojan]

Use of decoys:

[Simon Tan]

Artsakh mobilization using surplus OIF era desert pattern Interceptor vests!

[carrierlost]

Captured Armenian positions.

 

 

[bojan]

0:08 Zastava M93 12.7mm. Ironically those were sold both to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

[carrierlost]

Rallys supporting Azerbaijan (against Russia,Armenia) in Iran

 

[bojan]

IIRC 15% of the Iranian population are Azeris and IIRC chief mullah is also.

[Simon Tan]

Mashad is 'Iranian Azerbaijan'. 'Armenian' is a generic term  for Christian.

[carrierlost]

1 hour ago, Simon Tan said:

Mashad is 'Iranian Azerbaijan'. 'Armenian' is a generic term  for Christian.

I'd say this time they mean Armenia

 

 

[carrierlost]

On 9/29/2020 at 10:37 PM, Daan said:

Video of Armenian troops shooting down a hapless Azeri An-2:

Apparently a number of An-2 have been converted to drones by Azeris. They are being sent to bait the Armenian SAMs/radars to expose their positions.