Meanwhile In Turkey

[Josh]

They didnt before, but Ill grant you theres the possibility where as the US definitely will not. But sans any option for tech transfer, I think theyll go F-35 if offered.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well as always I respect your opinion Josh. I guess we are just going to have to wait and see. Personally I hope they get the B model, because that would give some interoperability with our new assets.

[glenn239]

 

They have no use for Su-57 without tech transfer. At that point the F-35 is the more mature product, were the US to give them access. Also if the Rafael deal doesnt go through they will need an embarked aircraft.

 

The US isnt going to give them tech transfer. We found it an absolute bloody nightmare just to get access to the software code, and we were one of the plankholders on the F35.

 

Do I think the Russians will?

 

 

Yes.

[Josh]

Well as always I respect your opinion Josh. I guess we are just going to have to wait and see. Personally I hope they get the B model, because that would give some interoperability with our new assets.

 

I just don't see the advantage of going with a less evolved platform from a more shaky supply source unless they get a tech transfer for future projects. There are couple hundred F-35s in the service and everyone but the Canadians are quite happy to get them. Solid parts stream, solid stream of software upgrades, numerous foreign weapons to be integrated, etc. Su-57 is a bit more of a question mark - it will probably be produced but most certainly not in numbers approaching F-35. That and the F-35 comes with STOVL and CATOBAR options that the Indians would find attractive. That said, it isn't clear India will be offered F-35: they are buying S400 and that has been stated as a no go for the Turks. Although I personally think it is somewhat more complex than that, so India might get some kind of exemption in the future, particularly under another administration.

[glenn239]

Oh, we'd like the F-35 up here, but our stupid Liberal government cancelled the program because it was the PC's that had signed the deal . This is a tradition that goes back to the 1980's I think.

 

There's not a chance the F-35 will operate with the S-400 in the same country. The Americans may as well sell the Russians the F-35 directly if that were the case.

[Nobu]

One of the arguments put forth for the denial of F-22s to firstworld Japan was security concerns. Similar concerns would likely be raised by exposure of the F-35 in its most capable and advanced form to thirdworld India and Indians seeking to play catch-up in the long game.

 

At best, the model of F-35 offered to New Delhi should and would be a monkey-model version for export. Based on how desperately India and Indians seek technology transfer, this would probably be a non-starter for New Delhi.

 

The political restrictions attached to F-35s in the form of firm control by Washington over spares for, maintenance, and what-is-legal use of F-35s in Indian service would be a non-starter for India as well in various ways. This would be another reason to never offer India anything but a dumbed-down export version only, as it would limit the potential harm of India exposing F-35 technology to its Cold War ally Russia in retaliation for possible exercise of this control by Washington.

 

All roads lead to the SU-57 for India. I would be surprised if they were not taken.

[Roman Alymov]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47809827

US warns Turkey over Russian S-400 missile system deal

US Vice-President Mike Pence has warned Turkey against buying a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system that Washington sees as a threat to US jets.

He said Turkey "must choose" between remaining a key Nato member or risk the security of that partnership "by making such reckless decisions".

Turkey responded that the purchase of the advanced system was a done deal.

 

I wonder idf it is the same "NATO unity" i was told so many times Russia is going to start war to challenge, or some other NATO unity? US is threatening to kick the second biggest NATO member away for disobedience (S-400 can't be real reason, as Greece own S-300 for decades and everybody is happy)

 

Erdogan is also quite vocal in promoting "NATO unity"

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/20/australia/erdogan-gallipoli-christchurch-attack-intl/index.html

Turkey's Erdogan sparks diplomatic row by invoking Gallipoli in aftermath of Christchurch terror attack

[Stuart Galbraith]

You REALLY need to start reading a history of the Cold War Roman, NATO has hit rougher speedbumps before. For example, Cyprus in 1974, or France Leaving the Military planning side of NATO in the 1960's. But if you want to build a mountain out of a molehill, go right ahead, it seems to be deeply fashionable these days.

 

Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Turkey

[Roman Alymov]

You REALLY need to start reading a history of the Cold War Roman, NATO has hit rougher speedbumps before. For example, Cyprus in 1974, or France Leaving the Military planning side of NATO in the 1960's. But if you want to build a mountain out of a molehill, go right ahead, it seems to be deeply fashionable these days.

Effectively you are saying NATO unity is something that do not exist not only now but historically, and the organization is political battlefield - well, how it is possible to challenge something that do not exist?

And i do know about France Leaving the Military planning side of NATO in the 1960's -there is even memorial to Charles de Gaulle in Moscow

[Mistral]

The moment NATO tanks invade Turkey to topple the regime you can complain, not before.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Mistral

[Stuart Galbraith]

Which will happen literally never. Russia has invaded what is now Turkey far more times than Europe ever has.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Russo-Turkish_wars

 

NATO exists because it is flexible. Its not a titular monolith like the Warsaw Pact, and even that had far more splits and schisms than we thought at the time. NATO survives because it adapts. Like I say Roman, you should read some cold war history before you keep predicting its doom with such manic glee. Erdogan is of no more pissing importance than De Gaulle was, and we go past that bumptious bastard with narry a backward step as it turned out.

[glenn239]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47809827

US warns Turkey over Russian S-400 missile system deal

US Vice-President Mike Pence has warned Turkey against buying a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system that Washington sees as a threat to US jets.

He said Turkey "must choose" between remaining a key Nato member or risk the security of that partnership "by making such reckless decisions".

Turkey responded that the purchase of the advanced system was a done deal.

 

I wonder idf it is the same "NATO unity" i was told so many times Russia is going to start war to challenge, or some other NATO unity? US is threatening to kick the second biggest NATO member away for disobedience (S-400 can't be real reason, as Greece own S-300 for decades and everybody is happy)

 

Erdogan is also quite vocal in promoting "NATO unity"

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/20/australia/erdogan-gallipoli-christchurch-attack-intl/index.html

Turkey's Erdogan sparks diplomatic row by invoking Gallipoli in aftermath of Christchurch terror attack

 

Coups originating from air force bases smell a bit American in origin. If the USA didn't want S-400's guarding Erdogan, maybe they should have worked a bit harder to make sure that Turkish F-16's wouldn't be attacking their own regime.

Edited April 4, 2019 by glenn239

[bojan]

....................

Edited April 4, 2019 by bojan

[Nobu]

One can hardly blame Erdogan for being a bit paranoid in that regard, as narrowly escaping assassination by the equivalent of SS assault group Skorzeny would tend to clarify the mind in various ways.

[JWB]

Which will happen literally never. Russia has invaded what is now Turkey far more times than Europe ever has.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Russo-Turkish_wars

 

NATO exists because it is flexible. Its not a titular monolith like the Warsaw Pact, and even that had far more splits and schisms than we thought at the time. NATO survives because it adapts. Like I say Roman, you should read some cold war history before you keep predicting its doom with such manic glee. Erdogan is of no more pissing importance than De Gaulle was, and we go past that bumptious bastard with narry a backward step as it turned out.

NATO survived De Gaulle shoving the USA into S.E Asia. Sultan is a temporary pest.

[Josh]

One can hardly blame Erdogan for being a bit paranoid in that regard, as narrowly escaping assassination by the equivalent of SS assault group Skorzeny would tend to clarify the mind in various ways.

 

If you actually believe the bullshit that the US was behind the coup, sure. Its worth noting his paranoia didn't stop him from visiting the US afterwards.

[glenn239]

An American planner would have to assume the average Turkish citizen would jump to that conclusion. So, when a presumably US trained pilot at a presumably US occupied base attacks the Erdogan regime in a coup, it becomes possible, even likely, that the Turkish armed forces would purchase an advanced SAM system independent of US capacity to interfere. And presto, that is exactly what happened. Now, the USAF is worried about the Turkish F-35 being studied by the Turkish S-400, as if the Turkish military would conclude, for some unfathomable reason, that at some point in the future a US trained Turkish F-35 pilot operating from an air base with US troops, might try to kill Erdogan.

Edited April 4, 2019 by glenn239

[Dark_Falcon]

An American planner would have to assume the average Turkish citizen would jump to that conclusion. So, when a presumably US trained pilot at a presumably US occupied base attacks the Erdogan regime in a coup, it becomes possible, even likely, that the Turkish armed forces would purchase an advanced SAM system independent of US capacity to interfere. And presto, that is exactly what happened. Now, the USAF is worried about the Turkish F-35 being studied by the Turkish S-400, as if the Turkish military would conclude, for some unfathomable reason, that at some point in the future a US trained Turkish F-35 pilot operating from an air base with US troops, might try to kill Erdogan.

 

The US wouldn't have too much of a problem if Turkey were able to create a firewall that kept Russia from gaining any information on the F-35. But I doubt that could or would be done.

[Nobu]

What I believe can only be speculative. What Erdogan believes based on his security clearance level with and access to Turkish Intelligence is evident.

 

What I don't believe is that there was any shortage of planning or organization for the coup and its intended aftermath. I am keeping an open mind about whether Washington was a player in it, but then again, I was not the target of a hand-picked air assault hit team on the night of it.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Nobu

[Josh]

Erdogan regularly blames his failures on foreign powers and the Kurds. His statements should not be regarded as fact but as a platform for re-election.

As for planning and organization, the coup didn't seem to have an abundance of it to me, but I wasn't there.

[Roman Alymov]

[JasonJ]

Erdogan says Turkey will participate in S-500 production after buying S-400.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/erdogan-turkey-produce-500s-russia-400-deal-190519055524411.html

[glenn239]

Word that SU-57 has suddenly gotten a lot cheaper - as low as 30 million a copy. Turkey might buy it too. It might be the Russian government is subsidizing these systems for political purposes.

[GARGEAN]

Word that SU-57 has suddenly gotten a lot cheaper - as low as 30 million a copy. Turkey might buy it too. It might be the Russian government is subsidizing these systems for political purposes.

They are that cheap for domestic market. They won't go for export much cheaper than 100mln.

[Josh]

What causes that price difference? Subsidies?