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Nobu

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  1. A small, victorious war against Bolivia and Bolivians, sure. Politically and militarily, the "off" switch to such a war is going to be much harder for Argentina to flip against a power like Britain, however. UNSC Ceasefire Resolution XX USA: Abstain USSR: Yes France: Abstain China: Yes Rest of the world: Yes United Kingdom: No The blockade of Argentina continues.
  2. India's per capita income should trend upward based on the youth of it alone. Then again, the socioeconomic factors that have retarded their socioeconomic growth aren't just going to disappear, either. Reproducing one's way out of poverty isn't going to work without addressing why one is living in a box on the street to begin with. That's where the "off" switch to the war would be, however. Still wondering what the hell Argentina was thinking in 1982. Swap out "bomber" with "nuclear delivery device" and he may have been right after all...
  3. Given imperial backwater status for another 100 years, a number of those mini-Texas states will be Indian tribal ones, and the fittest (the Commanche, perhaps) may reach the 21st Century as sovereign and intact Nations. I don't see one actually rising to unite the continent, however. Overall, I think they get cleansed as historical, especially if the proto-Australians are sent to North America instead. They probably put up a better fight than the aborigines did on their way down, however. Especially if supplied by rival powers.
  4. I don't disagree, although the concept of Washington fighting Beijing in one singular battlespace may be wishful thinking on the part of China and Chinese. Certainly agree that it will be a test for Washington's alliances. I don't think it will be a difficult one for it to pass, however, as it has made it clear that it will fight if Taiwan is invaded. What makes that test even easier for Washington to pass is that unless the Ark of the Covenant or the formula for phaser technology is sitting in a vault somewhere underneath Taipei, there is no autowin, game-over ending for Beijing that forces Washington and (many) friends to accept an immediate peace the day after they (somehow) occupy it.
  5. I don't see them thriving in the aftermath of such a conflict, win or lose. Best-case scenario, they flub OVERLORD and their instant-coffee navy goes down. Their mandate to rule probably goes down with it.
  6. The war that they (somehow) win may be a limited one, but I don't think the economic lawfare that will be fought afterward will be. You'd have the first world and most of the second on one side, and Beijing on the other. At the very least, a defeated and enraged Washington would divest from China, freeze Chinese assets, and pressure its partners around the world to do the same. The Chinese economy crashes. Ironically, if China loses, Washington probably divests itself from China anyway, and similarly pressures its partners around the world to do the same. Beijing making loud noises about an invasion makes sense to me in various ways. Given the way they entered the Korean War, it'd probably be more worrying if they weren't saying anything at all.
  7. I remember not giving this one a chance based on the hyperbolic title alone. May have to rethink, as Neptune's Inferno was good, I thought.
  8. Less a battle, and more a place of execution, unfortunately. +1 on the the goodness of this. Most interesting.
  9. Agree on both counts. The latter is why I've started to think that Washington might actually welcome an invasion attempt in the near term. And if it starts feeling proactive, possibly trying to provoke a premature one.
  10. Fair, although I think Taipei's semiconductor industry is already in bed with Beijing and has been for a while. Economically, it might be akin to Beijing killing a hugely productive and moneymaking member of the Family because he or she won't move back into the family Compound. Domestically, I could see their teeming masses starting to grumble once the political and economic repercussions of their invasion kick in at street level. Politically, I think Asia, and the world, closes ranks in an economic and military cordon around them. Interestingly, I think America and Americans may eventually reach the point where if an invasion is what it takes to accomplish the last point, and stop their economic progress in its tracks...
  11. Unsurprisingly, I hear you on the above. Exactly how much influence their sea power/instant-coffee navy will have on History is unclear at this point. What is clear is that there will be some. Considering the events of the past 25 years, the status quo peace has treated China and Chinese well. The best move for them may be to never go to war with the USN. It would be ironic if America and Americans end up realizing their best move may be the opposite, and provoking one.
  12. I'd generally agree. The question that comes to mind, should they achieve this, is what then for them? Sort of like winning a game of Monopoly, and still needing to get up and go to work the next day. I think that in the unlikely event that they win the war, they lose the peace.
  13. Killing it ala the Great White Whale before it gets to that point might be an option, although that didn't turn out well, either.
  14. Agree on both counts. His own generals have now put their own necks out to say as much. Just got around to reading your post--a ton of good, and topical, food for thought in there. Appreciate the signpost to Corbett, and the Australian perspective in general.
  15. I admit that it's not exactly France and Germany they are facing at sea, but with the exception of Japan and Russia, their instant-coffee navy might be able to prevail against the rest. It may taste like garbage, but there is now enough of it to keep everyone in the region awake at night. Here's the thing: 25 years ago, they didn't have major power maritime trade interests. They also didn't have a navy. 25 years later, they have both. This feels Mahanian to me. It's almost as if there is a faction in the equivalent of their Pentagon that doesn't want to follow in the footsteps of the High Seas Fleet, unfortunately. He may not have been talking about it, but the USN was doing it. When Dewey annihilated the Spanish Philippines cruiser squadron in 1898, he swept the Western Pacific clear of Spanish sea power. Interestingly, the USN never clashed with the RN in this timeframe. If Beijing's navy does not end up emulating the High Seas Fleet, there is the concerning possibility that it ends up becoming their Great White one.
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