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Everything posted by Nobu

  1. I think the Russians are bluffing. If they really wanted to crush the Ukraine in one swift campaign, waiting for Trump to leave office would seem counterproductive to that end.
  2. +1. Angela Bassett as well. She's 60+?
  3. Nothing vaporware about the sleek and modern Japanese attack subs Australia and Australians ditched. Keeping up one's end of a bargain indeed.
  4. Thomas Markle was apparently not happy with the Duchess of Sussex's latest TV appearance. I'm mildly surprised MI6 hasn't silenced him yet.
  5. There are Allies and there are allies. I am glad Japan falls in the category of the former. As far as the latter, I think there is a possibility Washington eventually decides to force China into a no-win decision by playing the Recognize Taiwanese Independence card. Just ask the Kurds... There is nothing more dangerous than a declining empire.
  6. Ran into a friend from undergraduate days who made a career of field archaeology a few years ago, and she was upfront about how 20 years of exposure to the sun and elements were hell on her aging process. Still a beautiful woman on many levels, however.
  7. The actions of China and Chinese over the past 15 years could be a product of their being terrified of getting Senkaku'ed again. A Taiwanese declaration of independence in the morning, and Washington both recognizing and guaranteeing that independence with a mutual defense pact by lunchtime, would be quite elegantly done. Their bluster and sudden need for an instant-coffee navy actually start to make a lot more sense if this is the reasoning behind it.
  8. I'd agree that she is on tour, to remake herself as a player in the game. She's probably thinking if a bartender can do it, why not her? She also probably would not be wrong. Had it not been for her ex-husband, I think it might be Senator Abedin by now. +1 on her being attractive.
  9. Underrated Bond film that kind of gets lost at the end of the Moore era. Points for wearing a Seiko in it. Underrated Bond villain: Klaus Maria Brandauer from Never Say Never Again was excellent.
  10. Il Duce is always right. Huma Abedin is as well, apparently.
  11. In the afterlife, there are Japanese generals probably still waiting for China to sue for peace after the fall of Nanking and Shanghai. No autowin switches were found underneath those cities either, unfortunately.
  12. Ah, the Glaspie Maneuver (although there is an argument out there that she fell on her sword to protect her Department and Administration, and she gains my respect if so). I'm going to sound like a broken record on this (what else is new), but I think Nixon managed this intentionally and successfully on at least two fronts for almost exactly the 40-year historical interval you describe: Detente and his visit to China. Yep. The Chinese "heads," cooler or otherwise, will realize soon after the "limited" war (comprising an OVERLORD-scale landing) begins that there is no "off switch" to it buried in vault underneath Taipei somewhere, even if Beijing's flag is flying over it. The same proviso would apply to a hypothetical invasion of Hainan island alone by anyone. Good luck to anyone trying to find the autowin off-switch to that "limited" war, either. Consider how long 1962 Indo-Chinese War for far lower stakes has dragged on, and the lost opportunity costs to both sides as a result. The saying of never attribute to malice what is better attributable to Indo-Chinese stupidity comes to mind.
  13. Interesting, and one hopes that the chapter on how not to send incorrect signals such as these may have been read by the State Department.
  14. Point 1: That's absolutely fair. When I heard "Douhet", I immediately thought "the bomber will always get through." What I should have given thought to is his deeper (and much more interesting) rationale for sending those bombers in the first place. Point 2: Ref. the bolded part, I'd agree. Especially given the hypothetical of war between nuclear powers not ending in a definitive peace that de-nuclearizes one or the other.
  15. A small, victorious war against Bolivia and Bolivians, sure. Politically and militarily, the "off" switch to such a war is going to be much harder for Argentina to flip against a power like Britain, however. UNSC Ceasefire Resolution XX USA: Abstain USSR: Yes France: Abstain China: Yes Rest of the world: Yes United Kingdom: No The blockade of Argentina continues.
  16. India's per capita income should trend upward based on the youth of it alone. Then again, the socioeconomic factors that have retarded their socioeconomic growth aren't just going to disappear, either. Reproducing one's way out of poverty isn't going to work without addressing why one is living in a box on the street to begin with. That's where the "off" switch to the war would be, however. Still wondering what the hell Argentina was thinking in 1982. Swap out "bomber" with "nuclear delivery device" and he may have been right after all...
  17. Given imperial backwater status for another 100 years, a number of those mini-Texas states will be Indian tribal ones, and the fittest (the Commanche, perhaps) may reach the 21st Century as sovereign and intact Nations. I don't see one actually rising to unite the continent, however. Overall, I think they get cleansed as historical, especially if the proto-Australians are sent to North America instead. They probably put up a better fight than the aborigines did on their way down, however. Especially if supplied by rival powers.
  18. I don't disagree, although the concept of Washington fighting Beijing in one singular battlespace may be wishful thinking on the part of China and Chinese. Certainly agree that it will be a test for Washington's alliances. I don't think it will be a difficult one for it to pass, however, as it has made it clear that it will fight if Taiwan is invaded. What makes that test even easier for Washington to pass is that unless the Ark of the Covenant or the formula for phaser technology is sitting in a vault somewhere underneath Taipei, there is no autowin, game-over ending for Beijing that forces Washington and (many) friends to accept an immediate peace the day after they (somehow) occupy it.
  19. I don't see them thriving in the aftermath of such a conflict, win or lose. Best-case scenario, they flub OVERLORD and their instant-coffee navy goes down. Their mandate to rule probably goes down with it.
  20. The war that they (somehow) win may be a limited one, but I don't think the economic lawfare that will be fought afterward will be. You'd have the first world and most of the second on one side, and Beijing on the other. At the very least, a defeated and enraged Washington would divest from China, freeze Chinese assets, and pressure its partners around the world to do the same. The Chinese economy crashes. Ironically, if China loses, Washington probably divests itself from China anyway, and similarly pressures its partners around the world to do the same. Beijing making loud noises about an invasion makes sense to me in various ways. Given the way they entered the Korean War, it'd probably be more worrying if they weren't saying anything at all.
  21. I remember not giving this one a chance based on the hyperbolic title alone. May have to rethink, as Neptune's Inferno was good, I thought.
  22. Less a battle, and more a place of execution, unfortunately. +1 on the the goodness of this. Most interesting.
  23. Agree on both counts. The latter is why I've started to think that Washington might actually welcome an invasion attempt in the near term. And if it starts feeling proactive, possibly trying to provoke a premature one.
  24. Fair, although I think Taipei's semiconductor industry is already in bed with Beijing and has been for a while. Economically, it might be akin to Beijing killing a hugely productive and moneymaking member of the Family because he or she won't move back into the family Compound. Domestically, I could see their teeming masses starting to grumble once the political and economic repercussions of their invasion kick in at street level. Politically, I think Asia, and the world, closes ranks in an economic and military cordon around them. Interestingly, I think America and Americans may eventually reach the point where if an invasion is what it takes to accomplish the last point, and stop their economic progress in its tracks...
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