Kiev Is Burning

[Yama]

9 minutes ago, Adam_S said:

Looks like another major "regrouping" may be starting. I wonder where they'll try and make a stand.

I prefer to call it "frontline rationalization"  But withdrawals must continue as long as Russians don't have an operational reserve with which to respond to Ukrainian attacks. Keeping large frontage of thinly held line is pointless.

Politically, abandoning Borova is acceptable as it is not part of the 'annexed' territories. However I would say Svatove is something they absolutely need to defend, losing it would have major ramifications strategically and politically.

Russians also seem to be counting (or hoping) on Ukrainians eventually feeling the logistical crunch. Distances to friendly borders are getting big.

[TrustMe]

15 minutes ago, Adam_S said:

Looks like another major "regrouping" may be starting. I wonder where they'll try and make a stand.

Maybe there just trading space for time. An old Russian trick.

[Adam_S]

19 minutes ago, Yama said:

I prefer to call it "frontline rationalization"  But withdrawals must continue as long as Russians don't have an operational reserve with which to respond to Ukrainian attacks. Keeping large frontage of thinly held line is pointless.

Politically, abandoning Borova is acceptable as it is not part of the 'annexed' territories. However I would say Svatove is something they absolutely need to defend, losing it would have major ramifications strategically and politically.

Russians also seem to be counting (or hoping) on Ukrainians eventually feeling the logistical crunch. Distances to friendly borders are getting big.

Holding that line is going to be a big ask though. There's no obvious natural obstacle like the Oskil river to form a line on this time. If they try and hold Svatove with nothing on either flank, then the chances are the Ukrainians will just go straight round.

[Adam_S]

24 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Maybe there just trading space for time. An old Russian trick.

There's only so much space though, and I don't think time is on their side either.

[Adam_S]

 

[Inhapi]

15 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Even pto-Ukrainians are not saying that,

 

Maybe you should stop gaslighting by effectively deying there is a thing like an autonomous Ukrainian state with your "pro-Ukranians" stuff.

We all know the power of words, and the only thing you do is using newsspeak to push your applauding of a were the Soviets fighting "Pro Germans"  ?

Just your use of "pro-Ukrainians" is so dishonest and just channeling Russian propaganda....

What are you: a Russian or a "Pro Russian" ? tell me ?

Edited October 3, 2022 by Inhapi

[txtree99]

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on October 2:

Ukrainian forces continued to liberate settlements east and northeast of Lyman and have liberated Torske in Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces withdrew from their positions northeast of Lyman, likely to positions around Kreminna and along the R66 Svatove-Kreminna highway.[24]

Ukrainian forces continued to advance on settlements east of Kupyansk and liberated Kisharivka in Kharkiv Oblast.[25]

Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults around Bakhmut, Vyimka, and Avdiivka.[26]

Ukrainian forces resumed counteroffensives in northern Kherson Oblast and have secured positions in Zolota Balka and Khreshchenivka. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also liberated Shevchekivka and Lyubymivka, pushing Russian forces to new defensive positions around Mykailivka.[27]

Russian forces continued to target Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv Oblast with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.[28]

Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision.[29] Ukrainian military officials stated that Russian forces are forming a motorized rifle division with mobilized men from Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and the Republic of Adygea.[30]

Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a draft law to the State Duma on admitting the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, to the Russian Federation.[31]

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, Inhapi said:

Maybe you should stop gaslighting by effectively deying there is a thing like an autonomous Ukrainian state with your "pro-Ukranians" stuff.

We all know the power of words, and the only thing you do is using newsspeak to push your applauding of a were the Soviets fighting "Pro Germans"  ?

Just your use of "pro-Ukrainians" is so dishonest and just channeling Russian propaganda....

What are you: a Russian or a "Pro Russian" ? tell me ?

I have explained my position on that years ago, and i see no reasons to change it now. By the way who are "We all" you refer to? You  mean you represent some sort of team working under one nickname?

   I am Russian by citizenship and by ethnicity (to the extent it is possible as ethnicity is very hard-to define thing) and "pro-Russian" by my political position (note not all citizens of Russia are pro-Russian, but we live in democratic country and got diversity of opinions as long as they do not cross legal limitations).

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Adam_S said:

Holding that line is going to be a big ask though. There's no obvious natural obstacle like the Oskil river to form a line on this time. If they try and hold Svatove with nothing on either flank, then the chances are the Ukrainians will just go straight round.

Strelkov's position on that (by the way his Telegram subscription is rapidly growing, now it is about 684K): 

The AFU continues to "wind up" our front along the Oskol reservoir in the direction of Svatovo.
There was information that the enemy occupied the village of Borovaya and the village of Shikovka today. Our troops are withdrawing without a fight, which is caused by the inability of the existing forces to successfully defend this vast wooded area.

I remind you that in July and August I wrote "let's wait for October" and was asked (including on this page): "what do you mean?" "Well, that's exactly what I meant. And what will happen next in October. Lost months cannot be returned. A few more weeks will pass, during which we will only be able to defend ourselves and "squeeze" in the controlled territories. - While the reserves being collected now (as part of mobilization) will not be ready for use. And God grant that the enemy will not be able to fully realize the significant advantage that he has now.

Original text n Russian https://t.me/strelkovii/3426

[Huba]

There's new Rybar map for the afternoon. Reportedly UA is pushing hard on Dutchany, westward from newly taken positions into what can be now called a RU salient, and along  the Inhulets from Archangelske. Looks like the point where RU has to make a decision about at least a limited withdrawal is very very close.

[Inhapi]

7 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I have explained my position on that years ago, and i see no reasons to change it now. By the way who are "We all" you refer to?

 

euhm: "we all" :  I just assume that most people know the power of words....

[Inhapi]

10 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

 (note not all citizens of Russia are pro-Russian, but we live in democratic country and got diversity of opinions as long as they do not cross legal limitations).

Are you serious ? Unless any dissent with the official Kremlin-Putin line is by law illegal... then I guess you are right. 

We just saw the great Russian democracy in action... a bas les masques !

Edited October 3, 2022 by Inhapi

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Inhapi said:

Are you serious ? Unless any dissent with the official Kremlin-Putin line is by law illegal... then I guess you are right.

We just saw the great Russian democracy in action... a bas les masques !

What is "official Kremlin-Putin line"? Even Putin's official press secretary is not representing it (see for example today's werbal battle about the bourders of Zaporozhye region of Russia). No idea what "we" saw this time....

 

[Yama]

46 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's new Rybar map for the afternoon. Reportedly UA is pushing hard on Dutchany, westward from newly taken positions into what can be now called a RU salient, and along  the Inhulets from Archangelske. Looks like the point where RU has to make a decision about at least a limited withdrawal is very very close.

Yes, and the decision has to be prompt if the situation appears threatening - that 'salient' is cramped, just like 10x20km across. Procrastinate a hour too long, you might not get out.

In addition to trying to outflank the salient, Ukrainians apparently resumed their offensive towards Dudchany. This is risky as Russians can easily deploy plenty of firepower there. But perhaps it is just a gambit or demonstration to prevent Russian aviation and standoff assets from interfering with other directions.

[mandeb48]

Tank lost  by model:

https://t.me/lostarmour/998

[Roman Alymov]

32 minutes ago, Yama said:

Yes, and the decision has to be prompt if the situation appears threatening - that 'salient' is cramped, just like 10x20km across. Procrastinate a hour too long, you might not get out.

In addition to trying to outflank the salient, Ukrainians apparently resumed their offensive towards Dudchany. This is risky as Russians can easily deploy plenty of firepower there. But perhaps it is just a gambit or demonstration to prevent Russian aviation and standoff assets from interfering with other directions.

Bad weather is preventing RusAF strikes (but also increasingly influencing pro-Ukr mobility cross-counrty)

Kherson direction (breakthrough to Dudchany) – God was on our side (situation on the morning of 03.10.22)

Yesterday, the enemy, with a powerful blow, broke through the defenses of our troops in the north of the Kherson region and rushed south in large columns (more than 100 armored vehicles). Having overcome more than 20 km along the highway to Berislav, by the evening he ran into our positions in the Dudchan area and from that moment luck switched to the side of Russia.

At first, aviation worked powerfully on the enemy, then our artillery joined it. Then it seemed to the enemy that he was beginning to get lucky, since a powerful downpour glued our aircraft to airfields, but as it turned out by the morning, the rain ends in autumn much earlier than the country roads dry out, and yesterday's successful breakthrough in fact, as of the morning, turned into a mousetrap for the broken parts. The columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot get off the asphalt, and our gunners are working on them, finishing off what survived at night.

The roads of the north of the Kherson region are covered with broken Ukrainian equipment and the corpses of soldiers, the wounded are being transported in packs, and to save the situation you need to either take the columns back or pray to God that everything dries out quickly. But it's not May outside and I really hope so…

In general, I am very glad that in this really difficult situation for us, God was on our side. True, we also have enough problems there (our grouping in the Olgino area is also hanging on these same country roads), and the enemy is trying to strengthen itself on the achieved frontiers and of course is preparing to develop its initial success even in these conditions. But his most important advantage is the space for maneuver, he lost at least for a while. Therefore, we continue to observe...

(source https://t.me/yurasumy/5272)

Also, another update with weather conditions mentioned (source https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65978 )

The Battle for Kherson: the situation at the Andreevsky site
as of 16.00 on October 3, 2022

The units of the 46 oaembr of the AFU were entrenched in the forest belt between Belogorka and Davydov Ford: Ukrainian formations managed to dig in the forest during yesterday's bad weather. Meanwhile, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, apparently, decided to reconsider the further plan of action.

Now the Ukrainian consolidated BTGr, formed from the 46 oaembr and 57 ompbr units, is using assault groups on Kozak armored vehicles or armored personnel carriers for pinpoint strikes on Russian positions using uncontrolled terrain.

Yesterday, 35 armored vehicles were transferred across the river crossing 1.5 km east of Bolshoy Artakovo to the left bank of the Ingulets River.

The personnel of the 35th Marine Brigade were rotated in Andreevka and Lozove. To restore the crossings, the engineering forces of 61 opbr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved.

The removal of the bodies of the killed and wounded Ukrainian servicemen from Sukhoi Stavka and Belogorka to Bereznegovatoye by Mi-8 helicopters and ambulances continues.

 

[Roman Alymov]

Destroyed pro-Ukr armor column in Kherson region, note rainy weather

https://t.me/anna_news/40485

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

It seems Russians have pulled out of Borova. No reports of fighting there, and pics of Ukrainians advancing. Apparently they have abandoned entire East bank of Oskil between Kupiansk and Zarichne.

Yes, just seeing that now on LiveMap. It looks like there has been a pullback approximately to the Zherebets river.

[Stuart Galbraith]

46 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Tank lost  by model:

https://t.me/lostarmour/998

It would be nice to claim it proves T80 is survivable, which it probably is. But there was a lot fewer in theatre as well.

[Josh]

55 minutes ago, Yama said:

Yes, and the decision has to be prompt if the situation appears threatening - that 'salient' is cramped, just like 10x20km across. Procrastinate a hour too long, you might not get out.

In addition to trying to outflank the salient, Ukrainians apparently resumed their offensive towards Dudchany. This is risky as Russians can easily deploy plenty of firepower there. But perhaps it is just a gambit or demonstration to prevent Russian aviation and standoff assets from interfering with other directions.

I wonder if the Russian fuel situation is complicating their reaction. It must be difficult to get bulk fuel across the Dnieper and reacting to significant penetrations takes more fuel than fighting a static set piece battle largely with artillery. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Bad weather is preventing RusAF strikes (but also increasingly influencing pro-Ukr mobility cross-counrty)

Kherson direction (breakthrough to Dudchany) – God was on our side (situation on the morning of 03.10.22)

Yesterday, the enemy, with a powerful blow, broke through the defenses of our troops in the north of the Kherson region and rushed south in large columns (more than 100 armored vehicles). Having overcome more than 20 km along the highway to Berislav, by the evening he ran into our positions in the Dudchan area and from that moment luck switched to the side of Russia.

At first, aviation worked powerfully on the enemy, then our artillery joined it. Then it seemed to the enemy that he was beginning to get lucky, since a powerful downpour glued our aircraft to airfields, but as it turned out by the morning, the rain ends in autumn much earlier than the country roads dry out, and yesterday's successful breakthrough in fact, as of the morning, turned into a mousetrap for the broken parts. The columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot get off the asphalt, and our gunners are working on them, finishing off what survived at night.

The roads of the north of the Kherson region are covered with broken Ukrainian equipment and the corpses of soldiers, the wounded are being transported in packs, and to save the situation you need to either take the columns back or pray to God that everything dries out quickly. But it's not May outside and I really hope so…

In general, I am very glad that in this really difficult situation for us, God was on our side. True, we also have enough problems there (our grouping in the Olgino area is also hanging on these same country roads), and the enemy is trying to strengthen itself on the achieved frontiers and of course is preparing to develop its initial success even in these conditions. But his most important advantage is the space for maneuver, he lost at least for a while. Therefore, we continue to observe...

(source https://t.me/yurasumy/5272)

Also, another update with weather conditions mentioned (source https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65978 )

The Battle for Kherson: the situation at the Andreevsky site
as of 16.00 on October 3, 2022

The units of the 46 oaembr of the AFU were entrenched in the forest belt between Belogorka and Davydov Ford: Ukrainian formations managed to dig in the forest during yesterday's bad weather. Meanwhile, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, apparently, decided to reconsider the further plan of action.

Now the Ukrainian consolidated BTGr, formed from the 46 oaembr and 57 ompbr units, is using assault groups on Kozak armored vehicles or armored personnel carriers for pinpoint strikes on Russian positions using uncontrolled terrain.

Yesterday, 35 armored vehicles were transferred across the river crossing 1.5 km east of Bolshoy Artakovo to the left bank of the Ingulets River.

The personnel of the 35th Marine Brigade were rotated in Andreevka and Lozove. To restore the crossings, the engineering forces of 61 opbr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved.

The removal of the bodies of the killed and wounded Ukrainian servicemen from Sukhoi Stavka and Belogorka to Bereznegovatoye by Mi-8 helicopters and ambulances continues.

 

Always nice to read the memories of the great patriotic war, when planes could not fly in bad weather and there was no smart ammunition available that could be used to attack through clouds. But who needs Rover tablets of JDAMs when God is on your side?

[Inhapi]

8 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Always nice to read the memories of the great patriotic war, when planes could not fly in bad weather and there was no smart ammunition available that could be used to attack through clouds. But who needs Rover tablets of JDAMs when God is on your side?

What is patriotic abut this war ?

[BansheeOne]

Man, Inhapi, his irony wasn't even subtle this time. 😄