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Kiev Is Burning


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20 minutes ago, Yama said:

But that didn't have to be, the US led coalition could have prevented them from retreating had they just deployed more forces. Even if that had not eliminated the Taliban for good, it would have at least made their comeback harder. Possibly, it might have resulted to early capture of OBL, as some claim he escaped Tora Bora in nick of time. Even if it hadn't, seems at least with benefit of hindsight that it would have been worth a shot.

Fully agree with that, the concept of "Light and agile" was in vogue, so light and agile means minimal coverage.

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1 hour ago, Yama said:

Hubris has been considerable for sure, some of the Finnish volunteers in Ukraine even expressed opinion "screw NATO, we don't need 'em"...

"Hey guys, our grandfathers fought a war against Russia in which they inflicted vastly disproportionate casualties and still lost, and then we became Hitler's bottom bitches, and nobody in our army has fired a shot in anger in 80 years, let us tell you how to do this!" :) In all seriousness I love Finland to death and welcome to NATO.

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5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Apparently a MiG-31. At least one crewmember ejected, a parachute was visible on the video of the crash.

MiG-31? Well that's interesting, none of the MiG-31 units are based on Black Sea AFAIK. Some time ago ppl here were wondering why they weren't seen anywhere.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians claim to have shot down Ka-52 on Zaporižžia front. The video only shows some crashed aircraft burning and which appear to be rockets going off, so it probably is an attack helo of some kind.

They also claimed another shootdown, but again it might be the same event shot from different viewpoint.

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3 minutes ago, Yama said:

MiG-31? Well that's interesting, none of the MiG-31 units are based on Black Sea AFAIK. Some time ago ppl here were wondering why they weren't seen anywhere.

Satellite pictures from yesterday showed some at Belbek, see this thread:

 

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1 hour ago, Yama said:

But that didn't have to be, the US led coalition could have prevented them from retreating had they just deployed more forces. Even if that had not eliminated the Taliban for good, it would have at least made their comeback harder. Possibly, it might have resulted to early capture of OBL, as some claim he escaped Tora Bora in nick of time. Even if it hadn't, seems at least with benefit of hindsight that it would have been worth a shot.

I find it a bit strange that the defeat of NATO is because the Taliban found shelter in neighboring Pakistan, but when Ukraine is getting a lifeline of support from Poland and the West…that somehow is different and Russia is just severely incapable of doing anything right?

If it was just Russia vs Ukraine and no Western support, I find it unlikely the Ukrainians would have been able to fight past May. Likewise without Pakistani soil, the Taliban fought on. In both cases, the war expanded beyond the boundaries of the original country, and in both cases, there was an absolute lack of will to do anything meaningful about it 

Edited by crazyinsane105
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2 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Unsurprising, but what about the Russian forces who were there? Any word on them?

I gather there's some delaying action going on in Zarichne etc. Pro-Russian source claimed earlier that Svatove-Zarichne road is cut, but road to Kreminna is still open.

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1 hour ago, Colin said:

A lot of the Junior Officers had some form of western military training, to break with the Soviet style. These young officers are taking from both styles and creating their own. The survivors will have a lot to teach about and they are not bound as much about equipment regulations so they can acquire and adapt new technologies faster than the Western militaries can., Starlink for example.  

That's a definite theme among most pro-Ukr things I've read; junior officers are quite good and senior guys are stuck in weird Soviet stuff. This might match most conceptions of soldiers in conventional wars and it's not like Ukr generals are 70 years old or something, so might be bullshit.

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2 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I find it a bit strange that the defeat of NATO is because the Taliban found shelter in neighboring Pakistan, but when Ukraine is getting a lifeline of support from Poland and the West…that somehow is different and Russia is just severely incapable of doing anything right?

If it was just Russia vs Ukraine and no Western support, I find it unlikely the Ukrainians would have been able to fight past May. Likewise without Pakistani soil, the Taliban fought on. In both cases, the war expanded beyond the boundaries of the original country 

Ukr without no Western support definitely equals Ukr losing in 3 months (or not fighting that long). IMHO the Pakistan nexus was always just a lame excuse (consider Pakistan vs the support the West gave).

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30 minutes ago, Angrybk said:

"Hey guys, our grandfathers fought a war against Russia in which they inflicted vastly disproportionate casualties and still lost, and then we became Hitler's bottom bitches, and nobody in our army has fired a shot in anger in 80 years, let us tell you how to do this!" :) In all seriousness I love Finland to death and welcome to NATO.

The 'Hyvä Suomi!' commentary I have linked is expressed by volunteers who were/are Ukraine, I agree it sometimes sounds quite superior... :) but, I wasn't there, I'm comfortably in my chair so who am I to say, etcetera.

Last guy whose story I linked said that he came back "hating Ukrainians and Russians equally". However, important to note that not he or anyone else said that Ukrainians are in the wrong, seems it was just cultural shock and maybe some PTSD.

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2 hours ago, Yama said:

A Finnish volunteer said that Ukrainian junior officers are often very good at their job. However, the impression is that this was due to practical war experience, rather than some special type of training.

That is a theme that repeats in every war, it is Lt and Captains who make or break units. Read some local accounts from WW1 recently, higher officers were... mixed bag at least, even best ones had their detractors, but good lts/captains were adored by their men.

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1 minute ago, Colin said:

The west is going to have to step up it's barrel manufacturing capability.

 

 

 

Issue isn’t quality of the barrels. It’s that the Ukrainians are overusing it because they honestly have no choice, since they are still badly outnumbered in artillery in comparison to the Russians. 
 

Solution should be to provide a lot more to Ukraine 

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2 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Issue isn’t quality of the barrels. It’s that the Ukrainians are overusing it because they honestly have no choice, since they are still badly outnumbered in artillery in comparison to the Russians. 
 

Solution should be to provide a lot more to Ukraine 

The Ukrainians outrange them with modern 155s and by now they should have more of them than Poland, Germany and France combined, though half of them are towed. This war isn't proceeding according to either side's predictions, normally NATO artillery in such a conflict would have a rather lighter load due to air supremacy, and the Russians didn't expect their air force to be limited to CAS only as well. 

When the choice is between saving your own company or a battalion or overheating the barrel, you overheat the barrel.   

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