Kiev Is Burning

[Yama]

9 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I think they ignored it. The Russians still have a massive advantage of artillery in the East, they just chose to do nothing 

They may not have huge artillery advantage there, most of the artillery was probably moved to other fronts alongside the formations they belonged to.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Ukraine, the new Border Reivers?

 

[RETAC21]

53 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Sure, I can see all those alleged allies coming out of the woodwork with such Russian 'victories' on the front. 

Just wait until the Syrian and North Korean Tank Corps roll in supported by the Iranian Pasdaran, all the way to Warsaw or Berlin, then you will see... 😮

[RETAC21]

44 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Russians have used far more than ten percent of available ground forces. They are using close to over half their available BTGs for the Ukraine effort. They need to properly rotate these troops in and out of Ukraine as well, hence that 160-200K number is much larger once you take into consideration how many troops have probably come in and out of the theater. 
 

We just have to wait and see how the Russians counterattack, and where the new battle lines will be drawn. It’s way too late to surround and cut off the entire Ukrainian force in the East. At best they can push them back out of Izhyum and at least salvage some type of victory, but if they don’t, quite frankly it’s a strategic defeat for them. 

No, they have used all of their available, deployable forces, which amounts to 30% of their force structure.

To increase/replenish the existing forces means both mobilising and deploying units manned by conscripts, but taking into account that their "professional" forces are deployed in Ukraine, who is going to train them?

Addtionally, they would have to re-generate a lot of non-operational hardware that currently is just filling the unit books. Right now, the only reserve force is the Air Force, so they can commit that (and risk losses to UK air defence for doubtful results) or pull back to where they can mass sufficient forces to build a defence line. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[crazyinsane105]

21 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

About 80 percent of the equipment Ukraine currently fights with is actually captured Russian equipment. This was reported by the Ukrainians themselves 

Its hilarious that the largest donor of weapons to Ukraine isn’t even the West, but the Russians themselves 😂😂😂

[Inhapi]

6 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

About 80 percent of the equipment Ukraine currently fights with is actually captured Russian equipment. This was reported by the Ukrainians themselves 

Its hilarious that the largest donor of weapons to Ukraine isn’t even the West, but the Russians themselves 😂😂😂

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcS26SeWIAQzJhg?format=jpg&name=900x900

Edited September 10, 2022 by Inhapi

[crazyinsane105]

56 minutes ago, Inhapi said:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcS26SeWIAQzJhg?format=jpg&name=900x900

I honestly think that 20 HIMARS and about 100 M-777 howitzers aren’t the main reason for Russia’s failure in Ukraine. Vast majority of equipment the Ukrainians are using is of Soviet or Russian origin. 
 

It’s pure Russian incompetence that is the main reason. 
 

And I honestly do think the Russians have some very capable commanders, officers, etc. They just need to take ridiculous orders and are handicapped by a bunch of people on top who’ve never actually served in the military who are shouting down orders 

[Daan]

Footage has emerged of a Su-34 wreckage in the woods near Izyum:

When it was still intact:

Edited September 10, 2022 by Daan

[Daan]

The Russians have simply abandoned their artillery pieces in Izyum:

 

[Yama]

12 minutes ago, Daan said:

Footage has emerged of a Su-34 wreckage in the woods near Izyum:

 

Hmm, curious. Seems hard to date, was not shot down at the day of filming for sure. There was a report back in spring of a Flanker variant shot down near Iziyum, but this seems too recent for that??

[crazyinsane105]

12 minutes ago, Yama said:

Hmm, curious. Seems hard to date, was not shot down at the day of filming for sure. There was a report back in spring of a Flanker variant shot down near Iziyum, but this seems too recent for that??

Maybe was shot down during the initial assault of Izhyum and just never cleaned up by the Russians?

[Daan]

The date of the downing and the date of the footage itself cannot be too distinct, as the wreckage would have been partly overgrown by vegetation, especially at the edges. However, when it was recorded is unclear. Some of the foliage has already turned red, while other leaves are still green, could be September.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Daan

[crazyinsane105]

 

Well, none of that equipment seems to even have been deployed. Just parked and left behind. 
 

Doesn’t even seem like the soldiers were there to man these vehicles for quite some time. 
 

This isn’t an insignificant amount of equipment btw. If properly deployed and used, it could seriously stop a multi brigade advance dead in its tracks.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by crazyinsane105

[urbanoid]

Well, the joke is that thanks to Russian generosity, 92nd Brigade can transform itself from Mechanized to Armored.

[crazyinsane105]

8 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Well, the joke is that thanks to Russian generosity, 92nd Brigade can transform itself from Mechanized to Armored.

Pretty much. 
 

Can anybody ID the tanks? Are they T-72s or T-80s?

[TonyE]

11 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

 

Well, none of that equipment seems to even have been deployed. Just parked and left behind. 
 

Doesn’t even seem like the soldiers were there to man these vehicles for quite some time. 
 

This isn’t an insignificant amount of equipment btw. If properly deployed and used, it could seriously stop a multi brigade advance dead in its tracks.

 

 

Going by the markings alone and several replies the bottom clip seem to be from Crimea, propably a repair yard.

[crazyinsane105]

7 minutes ago, TonyE said:

 

Going by the markings alone and several replies the bottom clip seem to be from Crimea, propably a repair yard.

Ahhh ok that makes sense 

Update: showed the video to my wife and she agreed that the accent the lady has, she’s from Crimea 

Edited September 10, 2022 by crazyinsane105

[Josh]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

If Russia were to collapse and agree to Western terms, those terms may well be to cease supplying China with resources.

I can’t imagine the US or EU adding any demands that didn’t come directly from Kiev. They’ve already achieved all their goals; anything Ukraine is happy with the US and EU will be happy with.

[crazyinsane105]

Just now, Josh said:

I can’t imagine the US or EU adding any demands that didn’t come directly from Kiev. They’ve already achieved all their goals; anything Ukraine is happy with the US and EU will be happy with.

Why would the US even ask Russia to cease energy deals with China? 
 
That’s a bit absurd, and something Russia would never agree too (and they shouldn’t, it’s their oil, they can sell whoever they want it too).

 

[kokovi]

This is starting to look like the destruction of Heeresgruppe Mitte.

[Adam_S]

 

[Yama]

8 hours ago, Daan said:

Airplanes fly in the air Roman, they do not drive through the forest. The failure of the RuAF does not only lie in the lack of targeting pods or similarly built-in advanced optics and the near absence of PGMs, but also in the lack of integration of the air and ground forces as in the US armed forces . The USAF would have a field day picking off vehicles driving on roads and through open fields the way the Ukrainians do. The relatively small trees and hedgerows provide little cover from modern IR optics on combat aircraft and UAVs.

RuAF has plenty of PGM's. In fact, most of this war they have fought using standoff-weapons. It's true they're very much behind in attack pods - I think they have like one not-too capable model in small quantities, plus some newer aircraft have systems with vaguely similar capability. 

The biggest problem is the lack of SEAD. They no longer have dedicated jammer aircraft, and their anti-radiation missiles are pretty primitive. And they just don't seem to train it that much. That limits their use of PGM's, if they flew like they flow in Syria, at 10kft leisurely dropping bombs, they would take too much losses. Admittedly, the stalwart of Ukrainian air defences - the Buk - would be challenging for any Western air arm too, unless they have stealth aircraft. Still I am surprised how much problems they have with these old Soviet systems, which they know inside out. One would have expected them to throughly compromise them to very low efficiency level.

Any way, the exact effect their air power has for this campaign remains somewhat unknown at this point, as obviously Ukrainians aren't going to publish the results and do their BDA for them. From the other side of the frontline, Girkin mentioned in one of his briefings that though UkrAF still flies attack sorties, their effect is "barely noticeable". For those RuAF planes using similar methods, the results are probably similar.

It is true that RuAF fixed wing air fights still in somewhat 1970's style, where they mostly bomb pre-identified fixed targets. It's still a workable method, just not very flexible or efficient. Direct air support is more of domain for helicopters. Their efficiency is also reduced to very high amounts of SHORAD systems available for Ukrainians. I have seen few videos which are claimed to show Ukrainian AFV's getting destroyed by helicopters during the current offensive.

[Yama]

55 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Ahhh ok that makes sense 

Update: showed the video to my wife and she agreed that the accent the lady has, she’s from Crimea 

Yeah the bottom video is from some Crimean repair/storage park, supposedly posted some time ago. Some of the vehicles appear to be captures.

Any way, there probably are plenty of abandoned vehicles in Iziyum, anything which didn't have fuel or malfunctioned had to be left behind, the withdrawal was one in couple of days, there was no time for proper recovery.