Predictions for 2024

[TrustMe]

2 hours ago, futon said:

 

Taiwan did too. Too many people wanting nukes I think. 

CVID DPRK + non-nuclear ROK

is better than

Nuclear DPRK + Nuclear ROK

 

ROK getting nukes would essentially be giving up on CVID for DPRK.

ROK is allowed to use US nukes if it's been nuked itself. Sort of like how individual NATO countries have access to US nukes.

[seahawk]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

I will never understand why some Christians give a shit who is married to who. Marriage is a tax file status, not a religious institution.

Marriage is the holy union between man and woman, which will then become mother and father. It is not a tax evasive scheme for Adam and Ken.

Edited January 12 by seahawk

[Stuart Galbraith]

Can we go down this rabbithole somewhere else? It would be s shame to turn this into yet another sandpit for theologian studies.

 

[Josh]

7 hours ago, Rick said:

The following is the answer to your incorrectly believed statement. Where there are people there are problems and the goal is to do the least possible damage to one's self and society, a goal that Christianity achieves. A man and a woman becoming husband and wife then a father and mother has been the bedrock of any society past, present, and future. These families are more law-abiding, commit fewer crimes, more economically successful, less poor, and value education more than other types of families. A moral government recognizes these truths.  

Such conservatively responsible traits lead to a more just an equitable society vs the excrement show you see on your t.v. news caused by people who do not follow such traits. Also, such people and their families will rely and depend on themselves, their families and religious associations instead of being a willfully, morally. and intellectually deficient slave to the government plantation.  

Is the crime rate any higher for same sex couples?

[17thfabn]

7 hours ago, futon said:

 

Taiwan did too. Too many people wanting nukes I think. 

CVID DPRK + non-nuclear ROK

is better than

Nuclear DPRK + Nuclear ROK

CVID? Not familiar with that abbreviation.  Google search has it as Common variable immunodeficiency. I'm guessing that is not what you intend. 

[futon]

2 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

CVID? Not familiar with that abbreviation.  Google search has it as Common variable immunodeficiency. I'm guessing that is not what you intend. 

Complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) 

It's an acronym that emerged in 2017/2018.

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230718002300325

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/42678-because-trump-20/&do=findComment&comment=1372116

 

It's unlikely for it to happen but it still has a dampening effect in that DPRK nuclear tests have only been underground. Rentry of a warhead has not yet been demonstrsted yet, reportedly at least, but the rest of capability has.. 10,000km range BMs launched from TELs. So if ROK goes nuclear, its a green light for DPRK to wrap up fully demonstrated capability of demonstrating rentry and nuke explosions in a delivery test, and then ramp up nuke production. The way things are with Russia, it'll be easier for DPRK to get that kind of technical support. 

[Josh]

No one is being denuclearized in this day and age unless it involves another nuclear power performing a pre emotive strike.

[futon]

I don't think people understand how bad the DPRK becoming a nuclear power is. People have become numb to it and got used to the prospect of it as normal. Like in the previous post, the pressure of CVID still at least dampens the degree of capability. Delivery is a big part of the capability question. Right now, DPRK probably can mount a single nuke on a BM that doesn't exit the atmosphere, or things much closer to the ground like a nuke mine. If DPRK has fully deliverable MIRV nuclear warheads, then it becomes a proxy nuke power for China or Russia. If shit hits the fan on the peninsula, and it goes nuclear, then yes of course, thats the end of the DPRK. But if they can retaliate with 20 MIRVs, say 10 are intercepted on the ground or in air/space, that leaves 10 to release whatever number of independent warheads, say 8.. thats 80 nukes on its way to the US homeland. China and Russia can sit back, watch the results, then draw up and make moves. Fat-Kims nuclear holocaust legacy on the US mainland, civilization-historically speaking, a gross embarrassment.

It is that potential as to why the effects of CVID based policies still matter.

 

The jury is still out as to whether or not a full blown horrific war in 2017 for forcing CVID on them could-be-so-called "rational state actor" with total military action instead of continuing the 30 years of kicking the can down the road that has only resulted in a worse situation.

[Rick]

15 hours ago, Josh said:

Is the crime rate any higher for same sex couples?

Among homosexuals couples compared to the normal couples, there is more for domestic violence, sexually transmitted diseases,  suicides and much higher for pedophilia. 

[Skywalkre]

I'd say a prediction thread on TN would be future comedy gold... but hardly anyone has made any.  🤣  It might be because our track record is so poor.  When I want a good laugh I go check out the Biden thread and look at some of the predictions folks made after he took office. 

For me I'd say it's less prediction and more... concern.  Not over political parties and their machinations but with the ultra rich (be it companies or individuals) and their efforts to squeeze every last penny out of a part of the economy that was never meant to be used in a speculative/cash grab manner. 

For example saw a report a few weeks back about the concerns these AirBnB-esque homes are having on the housing market.  As a % of the overall housing market they're just a small share of all homes... but when you look at specific vacation destinations they can be as high as 1/3 of all homes in the region.  The impacts that has on the local market, the borderline questionable ways some are financed, and a host of other things could lead to a regional calamity that could in theory impact the entire nation.

So, in short, my prediction would be a sub-sector of the economy crashes this year because of the greed of individuals/companies striving for ever more riches.

[Ssnake]

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

but hardly anyone has made any.

There's hope for people, after all. Replacing uncertainty with prediction error is not a clever strategy, I've been pointing out for a while.

 

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

When I want a good laugh I go check out the Biden thread and look at some of the predictions folks made after he took office.

Eh, 2015 predictions about Trump were just as laughable. Most predictions are, except the banal ones.

 

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

my prediction would be a sub-sector of the economy crashes this year because of the greed of individuals/companies striving for ever more riches.

WHICH sub sector?

[X-Files]

Doesn't matter which side *wins* the November 2024 US Presidential election.

Hannukah starts on Christmas Day

 

[17thfabn]

14 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

I'd say a prediction thread on TN would be future comedy gold... but hardly anyone has made any.  🤣 

Ok, I'll make a bold prediction.....

Who ever wins the presidency, the other side will say it is the end of the Republic as we know it. 

[futon]

As the US declines, the Romans return to reclaim (successfully this time) the standing they once had, in a neo- way.

 

[Skywalkre]

7 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Ok, I'll make a bold prediction.....

Who ever wins the presidency, the other side will say it is the end of the Republic as we know it. 

That would be a bold prediction... but from what I'm reading here on TN you're about 4-16 years too late with that one. 

[17thfabn]

1. On February 11th 2024 a big sporting event will occur in Las Vegas Nevada USA.

2. In the middle of the game there will be a musical performance by someone that any one over 40 never heard of. And if you have heard of them you don't know any of their music.

3. Throughout the game the cameras will pan to the audience. They will attempt to film the skinny whinny girl friend who is a pop star, of one of the players from Kansas City. 

4. It will be a close game. 

5. A tight end from Kansas City  will catch the game winning pass. He will be named Most Valuable Player.

6. When asked what are you going to do now that you've won the Super Bowl?

" I'm going to marry my girl friend, a well known whinny pop star, at Disney World so she doesn't write a mean whinny song about me. Then we are going to campaign for Joe Biden to be re-elected".

7. On hearing the good news, President Biden comments:

"I always liked that Joe Namath and Dolly Parton. I love that Dolly Parton song OOPS I DID it AGAIN . They are a cute couple, I appreciate their support".

8. An elderly man in South Florida with orange hair on hearing this becomes apoplectic and has a stroke and is on life support.  It is the biggest, hugest, most perfect stroke.  On hearing this news several people that had dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination for president reenter the race.

9. A female former governor of South Carolina declares herself the winner of the Republican nomination.

10. The July Republican Convention is a dream come true for the national press. It is a brokered convention, with the "smoke filled room" deciding the Republican nominee.  Except the smoke filled room is smoke free...... because it is 2024, not 1968.  The convention does not choose the female former governor of South Carolina as its nominee. 

I am 100% sure my first two paragraphs will happen! 

Edited February 12 by 17thfabn

[Yama]

On 2/10/2024 at 4:42 AM, 17thfabn said:

1. On February 11th 2024 a big sporting event will occur in Las Vegas Nevada USA.

2. In the middle of the game there will be a musical performance by someone that any one over 40 never heard of. And if you have heard of them you don't know any of their music.

3. Throughout the game the cameras will pan to the audience. They will attempt to film the skinny whinny girl friend who is a pop star, of one of the players from Kansas City. 

Back in the day, a girl would become famous because he dated one of the football players. Now, football becomes famous, as one of the players dates a girl.