Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[AttilaA]

Ilham Aliyev, speaking in Shusha, says if Armenia rejects Azerbaijan’s peace offer, which includes the two countries recognizing each other’s territorial integrity (with Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan), then Azerbaijan will in turn reject Armenia’s territorial integrity aswell and voice it officially. He further says the Second Karabakh War should be a lesson for Armenia on what awaits them if they won’t renounce territorial claims. 

https://apa.az/ru/energetika-i-promyshlennost/prezident-azerbaidzana-revansistskie-sily-dolzny-znat-cto-eto-vozmozno-poslednii-sans-dlya-armenii-478668

Now this is indeed a very agressive statement, but not unwarranted, not at all. Armenia cannot continue to pose a threat to Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. 

 

 

[AttilaA]

Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP to reach $73 billion by the end of 2022.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April/weo-report?c=912,&s=NGDPD,&sy=2020&ey=2027&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

Of course higher energy prices also means big increase in revenues and significant trade surplus.

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by AttilaA

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, AttilaA said:

Ilham Aliyev, speaking in Shusha, says if Armenia rejects Azerbaijan’s peace offer, which includes the two countries recognizing each other’s territorial integrity (with Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan), then Azerbaijan will in turn reject Armenia’s territorial integrity aswell and voice it officially.

Is that a formal warning to Armenia to accept the results of the war or have another one?  

[Roman Alymov]

13 hours ago, SALADIN said:

Read this about the  Armenian  occupation of  Kalbajar   . Thankfully the occupation was completely reversed by the heroic efforts  of the  Azeri people .  A prayer and hope for peace amongst the Armenians and Azeris .  " According to Donatella Rovera, Amnesty International's senior crisis adviser, who traveled to Kalbajar soon after it was returned to Azerbaijan's control, "during 27 years of occupation all was looted - not a door, nor a window, not a single roof tile was left in the houses of the Azerbaijanis who had to flee in 1993".^[23] She also reported observing in the cemetery of Kalbajar smashed graves "of Azerbaijanis who were buried here before the 1993 Armenian occupation. Some graves were freshly smashed, seemingly by Armenians who left the area last week after 27 years of occupation"

Mutual hate between Armenians and Azeris ("Turks" as they are often named by Armenians) is hundreds of years old, so this tit-for-tat is going on for centuries. Azeris were removing Armenian hachkars ("stone-crosses") that are dated to the time when Azeris were not even present in this lands (they are relatively newcommers - of course, only if compared to Armenians), Armenians were destroying everything AZ...   This two nations could only peacefully coexist as parts of unified state, when having AM village next to AZ village and AM family house next to AZ family house is norm, not source of trouble.

Monumental loss: Azerbaijan and 'the worst cultural genocide of the 21st century' | Art and design | The Guardian

[AttilaA]

On 4/22/2022 at 3:17 PM, glenn239 said:

Is that a formal warning to Armenia to accept the results of the war

There needs to be a peace treaty which must include the two countries recognizing each other’s territorial integrity, including Armenia recognizing the territory of former NKAO as part of Azerbaijan. Armenia on the other hand insisted on a Kosovo type scenario right after 2nd Karabakh war, “remedial secession” for the separatists in Karabakh. They can of course not enforce such a thing (Armenia has still not recognized “nkr”), so they hope an outsider power will do it. IMO, this is in vain.

However, very recently Pashinyan said this:

Pashinyan: international community urges Armenia to lower the bar on Karabakh status

http://arka.am/en/news/politics/pashinyan_international_community_urges_armenia_to_lower_the_bar_on_karabakh_status/

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

Btw, let’s remember that Kosovo Albanians didn’t invade and occupy parts of Serbia outside Kosovo. Imagine that Albanians (including the state of Albania) occupied parts of Serbia more than twice as large as Kosovo itself, followed by ethnic cleansing. 

So-called “nkr”, the “government” of Armenian separatists in Karabakh, included those districts outside of former NKAO as part of “nkr” aswell. No Armenian lived in those districts (as for former NKAO itself, it was not exclusively Armenian. 26% of the population were Azerbaijanis)

Armenia’s only strategy before the Second Karabakh War was to prolong the status-quo as long as possible, so that it eventually becomes the “new normal”. So I leave up to you to judge how sincere Armenia is now with their “remedial secession” after losing the war.

Edited April 23, 2022 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, AttilaA said:

Armenia’s only strategy before the Second Karabakh War was to prolong the status-quo as long as possible, so that it eventually becomes the “new normal”. So I leave up to you to judge how sincere Armenia is now with their “remedial secession” after losing the war.

Looking from Russia, Armenia's strategy was to become intergared into "West" and by this (using influencial Armenia diaspora) establish some kind of settlement on their conditions. Their Gov was strongly anti-Russian (probably in hope it will buy them Western symphaty and help). 

But, since Armenians seems like not represented on This Great Forum, let me say for them: From Armenian point of view, all this land (non only NKAO - mountain part, that stayed predominantly "Armenian" because it was inconvenirnt landscape for nomads) was once Armenia, and all lands they have occupied were ancient Armenian lands, up to Kura river.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, AttilaA said:

There needs to be a peace treaty which must include the two countries recognizing each other’s territorial integrity, including Armenia recognizing the territory of former NKAO as part of Azerbaijan. 

Understood, but what happens if that doesn't materialize?  Will there be negotiations or something more?

[AttilaA]

20 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Understood, but what happens if that doesn't materialize?  Will there be negotiations or something more?

Perhaps the answer to your question is this:

On 4/22/2022 at 11:44 AM, AttilaA said:

Ilham Aliyev, speaking in Shusha, says if Armenia rejects Azerbaijan’s peace offer, which includes the two countries recognizing each other’s territorial integrity (with Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan), then Azerbaijan will in turn reject Armenia’s territorial integrity aswell and voice it officially. He further says the Second Karabakh War should be a lesson for Armenia on what awaits them if they won’t renounce territorial claims. 

https://apa.az/ru/energetika-i-promyshlennost/prezident-azerbaidzana-revansistskie-sily-dolzny-znat-cto-eto-vozmozno-poslednii-sans-dlya-armenii-478668

Now this is indeed a very agressive statement, but not unwarranted, not at all. Armenia cannot continue to pose a threat to Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

20 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

But, since Armenians seems like not represented on This Great Forum, let me say for them: From Armenian point of view, all this land (non only NKAO - mountain part, that stayed predominantly "Armenian" because it was inconvenirnt landscape for nomads) was once Armenia, and all lands they have occupied were ancient Armenian lands, up to Kura river.

All that land, up to Kura river, was filled by nomads since Seljuq era.

When do you think Qarabağ got its name? The name Qarabağ has been mentioned in historical sources since Ilkhanate era and was the only name in use for the region. Do you know that the word “artsakh” was “revived” by Armenian nationalists in 80s? Before that Armenians exclusively used the word Qarabağ and the older generation still mostly use Qarabağ. “Artsakh” got popular since early 2000s among Armenians.

Edited April 23, 2022 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, AttilaA said:

All that land, up to Kura river, was filled by nomads since Seljuq era.

When do you think Qarabağ got its name? The name Qarabağ has been mentioned in historical sources since Ilkhanate era and was the only name in use for the region. Do you know that the word “artsakh” was “revived” by Armenian nationalists in 80s? Before that Armenians exclusively used the word Qarabağ and the older generation still mostly use Qarabağ. “Artsakh” got popular since early 2000s among Armenians.

No need to convincing me - i am Soviet-born Russian from Rostov-on-Don and non-Armenian nature of word KaraBakh is obvious for me. More over, disputed name of proposed Zangezur/Sunik corridor (where Sunik is sort of Armenian name) is also sort of revived word - as back in 1938 Khachaturyan, famous Armenian composer, was quite free to compose his "Zangezur march"

 

Also, i got little simpaties for AM nationalists, with their track record of Nazi collaboration and IED in Moscow subway in 1970th.

Still, it is historic fact Armenians were on this land, and contested it against Persians, long before Turk nomads arrived. Yes they have lost it for centuries  - but who cares, Kievan Rus newer existed at all as historical name (it was invented for history books in XIX century to tell it from Vladimir Rus and Moskov Rus periods) - still, now pro-Ukrainians have constructed entire ideology on this. And in case of Armenians we got nation FAR more ancient, actually one of the most ancient nations on our planet.....

 

[SALADIN]

5 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

No need to convincing me - i am Soviet-born Russian from Rostov-on-Don and non-Armenian nature of word KaraBakh is obvious for me. More over, disputed name of proposed Zangezur/Sunik corridor (where Sunik is sort of Armenian name) is also sort of revived word - as back in 1938 Khachaturyan, famous Armenian composer, was quite free to compose his "Zangezur march"

 

Also, i got little simpaties for AM nationalists, with their track record of Nazi collaboration and IED in Moscow subway in 1970th.

Still, it is historic fact Armenians were on this land, and contested it against Persians, long before Turk nomads arrived. Yes they have lost it for centuries  - but who cares, Kievan Rus newer existed at all as historical name (it was invented for history books in XIX century to tell it from Vladimir Rus and Moskov Rus periods) - still, now pro-Ukrainians have constructed entire ideology on this. And in case of Armenians we got nation FAR more ancient, actually one of the most ancient nations on our planet.....

 

Hi Roman , what is the view of the common folk in Russia on this conflict ? . Is it as neutral as the official line is ?. Thanks .

[AttilaA]

Casually boasting about the ruins of Agdam. And yes, this is a very common sentiment among them.

Isn’t it funny how they act as if they are the victims now? Yeah, “remedial secession”. 

Important: This is not the result of combat but pillaging.
 

Edited April 24, 2022 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

19 hours ago, SALADIN said:

Hi Roman , what is the view of the common folk in Russia on this conflict ? . Is it as neutral as the official line is ?. Thanks .

Hi. please excuse me for directing you to my old post more or less covering this 

 

[Roman Alymov]

Sorry, wrong thread

Edited April 25, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Hi. please excuse me for directing you to my old post more or less covering this 

 

Attila seems evasive when I asked him whether the Azeris intend to attack Armenia this year.  I don't know much about this situation, but that seems like they're veering towards a war of aggression against Armenia.   Would Russians view such a war with the same neutrality as the one last year?

Edited April 25, 2022 by glenn239

[SALADIN]

17 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Attila seems evasive when I asked him whether the Azeris intend to attack Armenia this year.  I don't know much about this situation, but that seems like they're veering towards a war of aggression against Armenia.   Would Russians view such a war with the same neutrality as the one last year?

Attacking Armenia proper would entail Russia getting involved by virtue of the mutual defence treaties, so i would honestly doubt it . Their entire strategy during the last war was striking a balance between going far enough to satisfy the Azeri public (Shusha needed to be taken for instance ) but stopping just  before the Russians get involved . The loss of the Russian  helicopter concentrated  minds . It saved also the Armenians from complete collapse as very few were left in he capital of NK  (Stepanakert ) to defend it .

[Roman Alymov]

13 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Attila seems evasive when I asked him whether the Azeris intend to attack Armenia this year.  I don't know much about this situation, but that seems like they're veering towards a war of aggression against Armenia.   Would Russians view such a war with the same neutrality as the one last year?

Well, not that simple: Armenia itself, despite of all rhetorics, do not recognise Karabakh Republic (not to mention integrating it), so technically AZ moves there would be just "restoring territorial integraty". If AZ side do it in wize way and make appropriate friendly noises to Russia, they could hope that Russia would look the other way. As for me, main players in this game now is Iran and Turkey, not Russia (we got next to no real interests in this mountains). Iran is not interested in Azeri-Turkish allience (de-facto it is "one state-two countries", and for Iran, where up to 30% of population are ethnic AZ, it is not exactly comfortable, especially taking into consideration border regions are AZ-dominated). This is the lands of ancient bloodshed, and Russia is relative newcomer....

[glenn239]

22 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well, not that simple: Armenia itself, despite of all rhetorics, do not recognise Karabakh Republic (not to mention integrating it), so technically AZ moves there would be just "restoring territorial integraty". If AZ side do it in wize way and make appropriate friendly noises to Russia, they could hope that Russia would look the other way. 

Understood, but the statement made seems to be a threat of some sort of annexation of Armenian territory outside the disputed region,

Ilham Aliyev, speaking in Shusha, says if Armenia rejects Azerbaijan’s peace offer, which includes the two countries recognizing each other’s territorial integrity (with Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan), then Azerbaijan will in turn reject Armenia’s territorial integrity aswell and voice it officially.

 

The Azeri calculation is clearly that Russia is distracted by Ukraine.  Is the Russian policy of a limited mission in Ukraine unravelling?

Edited April 26, 2022 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The Azeri calculation is clearly that Russia is distracted by Ukraine.  Is the Russian policy of a limited mission in Ukraine unravelling?

Let's be clear: Official AM side, with massive support of "national intilligencia" in Yerevan, de-facto lost good relations with official Russia (expecting that West will integrate them and protect them better than Russia), and kicked out/jailed modestly pro-Russian clan of first Karabakh war heroes who won war in 1990th. Then they have lost the war with AZ and only Russia stepping in posponed AZ from completely overtaking Karabakh. But only posponed - Vae victis. Why shoulf Russia fight Azerbaijan (rulled by son of local KGB boss, educted in Moscow and showing no anti-Russian sentiments) on the side of people who openly hate us? (at least their "office plancton")

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkOy6ySXgAIiIqf.jpg

Well, they have asked for it....

Edited April 26, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

 Why shoulf Russia fight Azerbaijan (rulled by son of local KGB boss, educted in Moscow and showing no anti-Russian sentiments) on the side of people who openly hate us? (at least their "office plancton")

 

Huh?  Russia and Armenia are both members of the CSTO security alliance.  You show a picture of some tarts with a sign and what, the CSTO just poofs out of existence?

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Huh?  Russia and Armenia are both members of the CSTO security alliance.  You show a picture of some tarts with a sign and what, the CSTO just poofs out of existence?

Please note i wrote "Russia fight Azerbaijan", not "Russia defend Armenia". Even from official AM point of view, Karabakh is Azerbaijan (or, at least, NOT Armenia). I do not remember AZ attacking AM (except border skirmishes from time to time). Why should Russians be more patriots of Armenia, than this office dwellers on Yerevan who dream of NATO & EU membership and call us dirty northern barbarians? They only remember us when Turks are comming to cut their heads of - while in time of peace they pretend to be Europeans.....

[glenn239]

So the CSTO treaty does still exist between Armenia and Russia, thus placing an upper boundary on Azeri freedom of action against Armenia?

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

So the CSTO treaty does still exist between Armenia and Russia, thus placing an upper boundary on Azeri freedom of action against Armenia?

Seems like my previous answer was not clear enough, sorry. Let me try again: Karabakh is oficially not part of Armenia (even by Armenia's own official position). So any actions of AZ side in Karabakh are not covered by CSTO treaty. 

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Seems like my previous answer was not clear enough, sorry. Let me try again: Karabakh is oficially not part of Armenia (even by Armenia's own official position). So any actions of AZ side in Karabakh are not covered by CSTO treaty. 

The explicit threat being made is that the Azeris will attack Armenia itself, not just the disputed Karabakh region, if Armenia refuses Azeri demands.