Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, AttilaA said:

Azerbaijan has demanded from Russia to withdraw/disarm remnants of Armenian army and armed gangs (“artsakh defence army” for quite some time now, before the invasion of Ukraine. What do you think eventually happens when these demands, written in ceasefire agreement, isn’t fulfilled? 

Is there going to be another war this year?

[sunday]

https://www.rt.com/russia/553069-azerbaijan-armenia-large-attack/

Seems to me Azerbaijan's reasons for starting a special military operation look quite similar to Russia's ones in the Ukrainian thing.

[Daan]

3 hours ago, AttilaA said:

Azerbaijan has demanded from Russia to withdraw/disarm remnants of Armenian army and armed gangs (“artsakh defence army” for quite some time now, before the invasion of Ukraine. What do you think eventually happens when these demands, written in ceasefire agreement, isn’t fulfilled? 

Should not forget that they are on Azerbaijani territory, with Azerbaijan’s consent. Neither do they have a indefinite mandate. As Azerbaijani MoD has described them from day 1: Russian PK contingent temporarily deployed in Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

Here is a conversation between Azerbaijani officer and representative for Russian PKs: 

“They continuously shoot at us from position n.26, and the civilian population has been armed. You are familiar with the (ceaefire) agreement? Your president, Vladimir Putin, has signed it”.

 

One can understand the Azerbaijani perspective, but also Russia's refusal to meet them outright, the latter having failed to function as Armenia's protector in the recent war and having had to cede influence in this region. The ability to delay provides leverage. Again, it is inconceivable that Azerbaijan would be so assertive without Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine.

[AttilaA]

Spike ER

Edited April 1, 2022 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

As part of the post-war military reforms, Azerbaijan is creating commando brigades (based on Turkish army model).

3 commando brigades has been created so far, with "many more" planned as stated by Ilham Aliyev when he inaugurated the command brigade in Hadrut (Karabakh).

 

Edited April 10, 2022 by AttilaA

[Yama]

'Commando brigades'? What sort of purpose they have, are they just like light infantry, or special forces reorganization?

[AttilaA]

30 minutes ago, Yama said:

'Commando brigades'? What sort of purpose they have, are they just like light infantry, or special forces reorganization?

Separate from existing special force units. Basically highly trained/prepared infantry. 

Edited April 10, 2022 by AttilaA

[SALADIN]

On 4/10/2022 at 6:17 PM, AttilaA said:

Separate from existing special force units. Basically highly trained/prepared infantry. 

Any information (In English ) about the performance of this sort of units in the Battle for Shusha/Shushi ?. IMO the performance of elite infantry in the war is seriously underrated  to the drone obsessed analysis offered by pundits.

[glenn239]

11 minutes ago, SALADIN said:

 IMO the performance of elite infantry in the war is seriously underrated  to the drone obsessed analysis offered by pundits.

Could be, but elite infantry take years to train while flying another drone is just a trip to the drone store.

[AttilaA]

2 hours ago, SALADIN said:

Any information (In English ) about the performance of this sort of units in the Battle for Shusha/Shushi ?. IMO the performance of elite infantry in the war is seriously underrated  to the drone obsessed analysis offered by pundits.

Hi, I have not come across any to be honest. 
 

But I’m sure the peformance of those units is what made Azerbaijani leadership to introduce the “commando brigades”, so to increase the number of “elite infantry”.
 

It’s not just that, those people think Azerbaijani army consisted of TB2s only. Meanwhile, everything worked together. Airforce, armored units, artillery, air defence etc

Edited April 11, 2022 by AttilaA

[bojan]

All former Soviet states missed "light" infantry element (however they are called - light, ranger, commando does not matter), so it is a quite logical move, I was actually surprised when looking at Azeri OOB that there were no such units already considering the terrain.

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by bojan

[SALADIN]

On 4/11/2022 at 10:45 PM, AttilaA said:

Hi, I have not come across any to be honest. 
 

But I’m sure the peformance of those units is what made Azerbaijani leadership to introduce the “commando brigades”, so to increase the number of “elite infantry”.
 

It’s not just that, those people think Azerbaijani army consisted of TB2s only. Meanwhile, everything worked together. Airforce, armored units, artillery, air defence etc

Found this fairly interesting analysis on Shusha . 

The guy is right , even if half of it is true , it is good movie material.

[AttilaA]

 

[Sardaukar]

On 4/11/2022 at 5:45 PM, AttilaA said:

Hi, I have not come across any to be honest. 
 

But I’m sure the peformance of those units is what made Azerbaijani leadership to introduce the “commando brigades”, so to increase the number of “elite infantry”.
 

It’s not just that, those people think Azerbaijani army consisted of TB2s only. Meanwhile, everything worked together. Airforce, armored units, artillery, air defence etc

Azeri light infantry and SF performed quite well. Some decent assaults and also targeting Armenian assets for artillery and so on.

Azeris had lot more than just TB2. Also Hermes 900 (2 systems, numbers vary since "system" is usually 3-6 drones), Orbiter 3 (10 systems), Heron (5 systems), Searcher (5 systems), Hermes 450 (10 systems) and Aerostar (14 systems). Most of these were ISR assets.

Then they had loitering attack drones (aka "suicide drones"). Orbiter 1K (80 drones), Sky Striker (100 drones) and Harop (80 drones).

So they had massive advantage in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. And in addition quite large attack capability. Lot of Armenian air defence was incapacitated by drone attacks. Neither side used their air force much.

All but Bayraktar TB2 were Israeli systems. 

[Ssnake]

Shitty aim, sorry.

Missile went for the bow of the hull, no visible attempt at adjusting the aim point.

[AttilaA]

President Ilham Aliyev:  “New, large contracts were signed with Turkish and Israeli defence firms after the war. These contracts are currently being realized.”

Turkish defence industry export figures show that Azerbaijan imported nearly $550 million worth of Turkish defence equipment between 2019-21 (you will see many people claim that “Turkey gave TB2s to Azerbaijan”. No, they were bought). 
 

As Turkish defence industry developes, I expect Azerbaijan to substantially increase the purchase of Turkish defence equipment. Turkey could also not sell some systems to Azerbaijan in the past because of restrictions, for example the contract for 36 units of T-155 Firtina self-propelled howitzers in 2010 which was not realized as Germany blocked the supplies of MTU engine used on T-155 to Azerbaijan.

Edited April 15, 2022 by AttilaA

[Sardaukar]

38 minutes ago, AttilaA said:

President Ilham Aliyev:  “New large contracts were signed with Turkish and Israeli defence firms after the war. These contracts are currently being realized.”

Turkish defence industry export figures show that Azerbaijan imported nearly $550 million worth of Turkish defence equipment between 2019-21 (you will see many people claim that “Turkey gave TB2s to Azerbaijan”. No, they were bought). 
 

As Turkish defence industry developes, I expect Azerbaijan to substantially increase the purchase of Turkish defence equipment. Turkey could also not sell some systems to Azerbaijan in the past because of restrictions, for example the contract for 36 units of T-155 Firtina self-propelled howitzers in 2010 which was not realized as Germany blocked the supplies of MTU engine used on T-155 to Azerbaijan.

They don't only buy equipment from Turkey but Turkey trained Azeri officers and even had advisors in Azeri HQs during conflict. What they taught was how to conduct operational warfare.

Tactics are fine, but operational skills win battles and strategy wins wars. Armenia thought that they'd be fighting similar war as before, where they had the upper hand. Serious underestimation of opponent that had reformed their military.

[AttilaA]

1 hour ago, Sardaukar said:

They don't only buy equipment from Turkey but Turkey trained Azeri officers and even had advisors in Azeri HQs during conflict. What they taught was how to conduct operational warfare.

Tactics are fine, but operational skills win battles and strategy wins wars. Armenia thought that they'd be fighting similar war as before, where they had the upper hand. Serious underestimation of opponent that had reformed their military.

Their advantage was the terrain + fortifications built over 30 years. Indeed a very significant advantage, but otherwise there was discrepancy between Azerbaijani and Armenian militaries.
 

Underestimation is just part of their mentality, they call themselves “a warrior nation”, but the early 90s was a once in lifetime chance for them as there was total chaos within Azerbaijan following the dissolution of Soviet Union. 

Coming back to the “warrior nation” part, Armenians were subjects and vassals of local Azerbaijani Khanates (including on the territory of modern-day Armenia) prior to Russian invasion of the region. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Treaty_of_Kurakchay

“Kurakchay treaty (Russian: Кюрекчайский договор, May 14, 1805) is a contract confirming the integration of the Karabakh Khanate into the Russian Empire. The signing ceremony took place on May 14, 1805 in a Russian military camp on the banks of the Kurekchay river, not far from Ganja. The agreement was signed by Ibrahim Khalil Khan and Commander-in-Chief of Georgia, Infantry General Pavel Tsitsianov (on behalf of Emperor Alexander I).”

As you can see, Russia signed the agreement with Karabakh Khanat, the local power of the region, and not Armenians.

PS: I’m not saying there is such a thing as “warrior nation”, just how absurd the entire thing is.

Edited April 15, 2022 by AttilaA

[Sardaukar]

Azeris went through south where terrain favoured their drones.

Armenians had been in same positions sometimes 25 yrs and still hadn't fortified properly with multiple lines and overhead cover for positions. Fake positions/decoys were unknown mostly. Thus Azeris were able methodically reduce Armenian defences with artillery while drones hit their supply, artillery and tanks. Thus they were able to achieve large local superiorities while seriously degrading Armenian front-line units.

It was not especially "blitzkrieg", just couple of km per day. 

[AttilaA]

.

Edited April 20, 2022 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

Infrastructure projects to restore liberated territories is underway. 

One of several road projects, a highway to Kalbajar district through Murovdağ mountain range.
 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

On 4/20/2022 at 2:32 PM, AttilaA said:

Infrastructure projects to restore liberated territories is underway. 

One of several road projects, a highway to Kalbajar district through Murovdağ mountain range.
 

 

Interesting that despite of all obvious investments and modern heavy machinery, actual stonelaying is done manually (see 1:40) Local tradition of some kind?

  In general, looks very simmilar to Russian infrastructure projects in Crimea, but on smaller scale. 

[Colin]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Interesting that despite of all obvious investments and modern heavy machinery, actual stonelaying is done manually (see 1:40) Local tradition of some kind?

  In general, looks very simmilar to Russian infrastructure projects in Crimea, but on smaller scale. 

I noted that as well, might actually be a benefit as it will slow water down a bit, giving fish a chance. Those structure look nice, but definitely not fish friendly.

[sunday]

That stonework pavement in the canal looks like a river diversion. They could put rocks from the current riverbed on it to make it look more natural, and that pavement will reduce the erosion expected from such a fast stream.

It looks like that kind of natural stonework needs manual labor to adjust positions, like when placing riprap on breakwaters.

Edited April 21, 2022 by sunday

[SALADIN]

Read this about the  Armenian  occupation of  Kalbajar   . Thankfully the occupation was completely reversed by the heroic efforts  of the  Azeri people .  A prayer and hope for peace amongst the Armenians and Azeris .  " According to Donatella Rovera, Amnesty International's senior crisis adviser, who traveled to Kalbajar soon after it was returned to Azerbaijan's control, "during 27 years of occupation all was looted - not a door, nor a window, not a single roof tile was left in the houses of the Azerbaijanis who had to flee in 1993".^[23] She also reported observing in the cemetery of Kalbajar smashed graves "of Azerbaijanis who were buried here before the 1993 Armenian occupation. Some graves were freshly smashed, seemingly by Armenians who left the area last week after 27 years of occupation"