Kiev Is Burning

[Josh]

11 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Except the issue is that if the Ukrainians keep pushing, they will threaten the supply lines that are going from Belogrod to the Russian forces stationed in Izhyum

As you noted previously, they appear to already be in artillery range of the main road and rail line leading to Belogrod. There is another rail line through Urazovo and lots of other secondary roads, but I it seems Belogrod is the main supply line currently. I can't imagine that giving ground so close to that junction was a conscious decision by the Russians. One of the breakdowns of forces someone else post a couple pages back seemed to indicate just 5 BTGs are assigned to that region, so it may be that forces are spread to thin supporting offensive operations near Izium.

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Fine, so please tell me me how Ukraine is going to be defeated?

My guess would be that the Russian plan is to ramp up the attrition ratio to Israel vs. Gaza levels, and then wait for the morale of the Ukrainians to break.   

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Except the issue is that if the Ukrainians keep pushing, they will threaten the supply lines that are going from Belogrod to the Russian forces stationed in Izhyum

The towns I see listed as being retaken by the Ukrainians a few days ago, (Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrayinka, Shestakovo, and Peremohaare) are all east of the Sliverskyl Donets River, the line I assume the Russians would intend to hold, and northeast of Kharkiv in an area that will not matter to fighting further south.  Seemed to me that the Ukrainians are advancing into a place the Russians don't want to keep anyways.

On the supply lines, the T2108 road from Belgorod strikes me as crucial in muddy season or winter, but in the summer campaign that's pending, is it really that vital when the ground dries?     It's a long winding road parallel to the front, and for supply lines security, (missile teams and air defense)  I would think that it's best to have the supply lines approaching perpendicular to the front line would be better.

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

😂

Possibly the saddest thing in Red Storm rising was when NATO and Russian officials met, and were flabbergasted at the reason for the invasion, which was a lack of oil. NATO was like, wtf is wrong with you, we would obviously have had demands but that would have been better than something like this war! 
 

Which does bring things into perspective in this current situation. One major reason this war is taking place is because the Ukrainians blocked off the water to Crimea. But instead of a war, the Russians could have just paid a bit of money to Ukraine and cut them a better gas deal. I’m sure the Ukrainians wouldn’t have given too much fuss about it and let the water flow. 
 

But of course, many members do disagree that the war is about natural resources. 

My impression is that what actually triggered Putin to invade, the straw that broke the camel's back, was the use of Turkish drones against the rebel pocket in 2021.  Zelensky was paying lip service to the Minsk Accords, but the Ukrainian intention was obviously to smash the rebels in an offensive, and the new drones  entering service in large numbers would be the decisive factor.  If the rebel pocket were overrun, then Ukraine could leverage that success in the direction of the EU and NATO, and the overall result would be  a 'domino effect' into the Caucus region for the Americans and against the Russians.  

Historically, the way the Russians played their mobilization is useful to understanding the origins of World War One.  The Tzar in 1914 was doing the exact same thing Putin was doing in 2021/2022.

 

Edited May 10, 2022 by glenn239

[P Lakowski]

8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

There is also another possible explanation. Any tank that goes cross country, has to be supplied cross country too. We have seen the state of the tires on the Russian trucks. I think its going to be some time before anyone really wants to try that, like mid summer.

I read some where RUSSIA is using / blaming poor Chinese tires !!! is that for real?

[Josh]

There was a twitter thread that seemed to show Chinese made tires on a Russian Pantsir. I can't speak to its authenticity but I don't see any reason the Russians wouldn't buy products from China. Other threads have purported to show tires so old they are stamped "Made In The USSR", though why that would be posted in English is beyond me. In any case, tire maintenance and quality does appear to be a real issue. On paved roads it doesn't particularly matter but it off road it seems to have created additional mobility problems.

[George]

Once the ground dries up there shouldn't be a problem driving civilian vehicles off road in Donbass depending on the gradient. Both cars and trucks.

[seahawk]

And then is when the Russian will strike.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, P Lakowski said:

I read some where RUSSIA is using / blaming poor Chinese tires !!! is that for real?

I don't know about that, but they certainly have been using USSR export tyres. The suspicion is they bought them back from india....

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

There was a twitter thread that seemed to show Chinese made tires on a Russian Pantsir. I can't speak to its authenticity but I don't see any reason the Russians wouldn't buy products from China. Other threads have purported to show tires so old they are stamped "Made In The USSR", though why that would be posted in English is beyond me. In any case, tire maintenance and quality does appear to be a real issue. On paved roads it doesn't particularly matter but it off road it seems to have created additional mobility problems.

Export tyres. The USSR stamped a lot of things they made in English.

[Yama]

1 hour ago, P Lakowski said:

I read some where RUSSIA is using / blaming poor Chinese tires !!! is that for real?

Well, Chinese tires do suck, that part is certainly true. They always place last on auto rags tests.

I suppose they are yet to learn making 'special' patches for the reviews...

Edited May 10, 2022 by Yama

[Dark_Falcon]

I found this video somewhat shocking, as a VDV company may only have 48 dismount infantry, not nearly enough in my view.

 

 

[seahawk]

Major Russian breakthrough near Bilohorivka. This is the big push, that will crush the Ukrainians.

[bojan]

11 minutes ago, Dark_Falcon said:

I found this video somewhat shocking, as a VDV company may only have 48 dismount infantry, not nearly enough in my view.

Soviets and Russians don't have infantry, they have close protection element for armored vehicles, which are the source of the firepower.

Don't think about that as "Paratrooper Company", think about it as "airmobile light tank company with platoon of infantry attached"

Edited May 10, 2022 by bojan

[Dark_Falcon]

7 minutes ago, bojan said:

Soviets and Russians don't have infantry, they have close protection element for armored vehicles, which are the source of the firepower.

Don't think about that as "Paratrooper Company", think about it as "airmobile light tank company with platoon of infantry attached"

The problem with that is the lack of troops to perform area control and pacification.

[Yama]

5 minutes ago, Dark_Falcon said:

The problem with that is the lack of troops to perform area control and pacification.

Cossacks and Chechens are for that..

[RETAC21]

28 minutes ago, bojan said:

Soviets and Russians don't have infantry, they have close protection element for armored vehicles, which are the source of the firepower.

Don't think about that as "Paratrooper Company", think about it as "airmobile light tank company with platoon of infantry attached"

Russians probably not, but the Soviets did use the infantry as a separate element from the armored vehicles (the bronengruppa) in Afghanistan at least.

It's a question of choice, would you rather have 1 BMD or the paratroopers that would occupy that space on an aircraft? The Soviet Union couldn't seem to settle on one or the other, so the VDV was eventually vehicle heavy but the Landing-Assault Brigades (which were air assault units dependent from the Ground forces) were infantry-heavy.

[RETAC21]

20 minutes ago, Yama said:

Cossacks and Chechens are for that..

And the Rosgvardia

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, P Lakowski said:

I read some where RUSSIA is using / blaming poor Chinese tires !!! is that for real?

Chinese tire quality since the turn of the century has greatly increased.  Many Western companies produce in China and then stick a Western brand on them.  If a Chinese tire fails on a Russian truck, it depends alot when the tire went on the truck.  Was it last year, or in 1998?  

[seahawk]

Mostly it depends on the maintenance. Leave the tire out in the open, without turning it over regularly and without checking the air pressure. It is damaged quickly on any heavy vehicle.

[Josh]

7 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Mostly it depends on the maintenance. Leave the tire out in the open, without turning it over regularly and without checking the air pressure. It is damaged quickly on any heavy vehicle.

This. I suspect a big probably that caused maintenance issues was that a large amount of the equipment used was stored in theater prewar without the units that normally support it.

[Dark_Falcon]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

Cossacks and Chechens are for that..

Which has not worked. new organization structures will be needed.

[crazyinsane105]

40 minutes ago, Josh said:

This. I suspect a big probably that caused maintenance issues was that a large amount of the equipment used was stored in theater prewar without the units that normally support it.

Yeah, many of the vehicles were just sitting there starting from early 2021. 

[Josh]

Per livemap, "As a result of coordinated actions of the personnel of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, the settlements of Cherkasy Tyshky, Rusky Tyshky, Rubizhne and Bayrak were liberated - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine".

Additionally, "Ukrainian military liberated Pytomnyk village near Kharkiv"

[George]

33 minutes ago, Dark_Falcon said:

Which has not worked. new organization structures will be needed.

I have not read any reports of serious security concerns behind the Russian front lines lately.