seahawk Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) There I disagree, if the Ukrainians are able to retake the east, they are also able to take Moscow. This is probably a nuclear weapons scenario for the Russians - at least it was what everybody believed in case of a NATO victory in a conventional WW3. Edited May 3, 2022 by seahawk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, seahawk said: There I disagree, if the Ukrainians are able to retake the west, they are also able to take Moscow. This is probably a nuclear weapons scenario for the Russians - at least it was what everybody believed in case of a NATO victory in a conventional WW3. There's some difference between retaking Kherson, and driving on Moscow - ultimately NATO will stop Ukrainians if they get too cocky I think, but there's a very very long way to that point. Edited May 3, 2022 by Huba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Not the best source for this kind of news. Pope Admits NATO Likely Provoked Putin's Invasion: "Barking At The Gates Of Russia" But: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, RETAC21 said: Arguably, the Russians in the South are at the end of a very tenous supply line running to Crimea and the forces around Kherson appear somewhat vulnerable, but it seems the Ukrainians are more intent on running up the Russian casualty figures than taking any territory back, which makes sense as most of the land taken by the Russians can be given up with no significant economic loss. The forces in the south are also connected by train line to Crimea, so no one advance could cut off the forces there unless it went all the way to the rail junctions just north of Crimea. That would pretty much happen only in the event of a Russian collapse anyway. The forces in Kherson potentially could be isolated by dropping bridges - I assume the major highway bridge and rail bridge in that area are intact for the Russians to be supplying those forces at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Huba said: There's some difference between retaking Kherson, and driving on Moscow - ultimately NATO will stop Ukrainians if they get too cocky I think, but there's a very very long way to that point. Considering that Ukraine doesn’t even want to admit its own strikes on Russian territory, I highly highly doubt they will do anything to make a drive towards Russian territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETAC21 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said: I disagree with the economic loss part. The Ukrainians are left with just one deep sea port versus the several they had, and a rather large amount of territory that the Russians have taken is fertile farmland. Not to mention that Ukraine has sustained about 100 billion dollars of damage to its infrastructure thus far You misunderstood me, I meant that the Russian can trade space for time with no significant loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETAC21 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, seahawk said: There I disagree, if the Ukrainians are able to retake the east, they are also able to take Moscow. This is probably a nuclear weapons scenario for the Russians - at least it was what everybody believed in case of a NATO victory in a conventional WW3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, RETAC21 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Josh said: The forces in the south are also connected by train line to Crimea, so no one advance could cut off the forces there unless it went all the way to the rail junctions just north of Crimea. That would pretty much happen only in the event of a Russian collapse anyway. The forces in Kherson potentially could be isolated by dropping bridges - I assume the major highway bridge and rail bridge in that area are intact for the Russians to be supplying those forces at all. How it unfolds will mostly depend on UAs long range fires capabilities (or lack thereof). We didn't see yet what the new arms packages from the expected 20B $ will consist of. If Ukraine were to have an advantage here (massed employment of GMLRS?), then Russian logistics could be pretty much paralyzed, at least as far as static infrastructure like bridges/ rail lines is concerned. We'll get to see in upcoming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yama Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Wasn't that multi-billion USD package spread over many years, not something which will be teleported to Ukraine in a week or two? But of course if it becomes WW1 style multi-year slogfest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo Niehorster Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Id argue its worse than Georgia in 2008. In fact, some of what Russia was doing, including decimating the Georgian navy by sea, an amphibious landing of airborne troops, Crossing the Carpathians [?] seemingly flawlessly, all of these were undertaken considerably more shorefootedly than they did this year. ... Think you mean the Caucasus Mountains. Carpathians was in 1944. -- Leo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Leo Niehorster said: Think you mean the Caucasus Mountains. Carpathians was in 1944. -- Leo Those too. In further hilarity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Stuart Galbraith said: Those too. In further hilarity... So Ukraine and the West have killed 30 million Russians and threatened the very existence of major Russian cities? That’s news to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Yama said: Wasn't that multi-billion USD package spread over many years, not something which will be teleported to Ukraine in a week or two? But of course if it becomes WW1 style multi-year slogfest... Was it? I honestly don't recall more details apart from the number of $ and general statements that help will be delivered as long as required. I assume the volume of delivered armaments will only go up from the present - and last month saw quite a bit of stuff if you sum it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said: So Ukraine and the West have killed 30 million Russians and threatened the very existence of major Russian cities? That’s news to me I feel sure I would have noticed, even though I watch CNN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawk Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) More precision strikes against Ukrainian installations https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1521547744711749632?s=20&t=G58uP4-zlyHVulaC0MhR5g Edited May 3, 2022 by seahawk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Never go full Hitler... As for Western aid, it looks like it will ultimately include about a half dozen battalions of M777 and a couple polyglot SP battalions in the near term. I've heard a lot of HIMARs rumors but seen nothing confirmed, and while the US says the majority of its towed systems have been delivered we haven't seen any trace of them yet (presumably a lot of equipment and personnel have to be integrated to form up the new battalions). I've also heard a rumor of Excalibur being part of the ammunition package, but nothing else referring to guided ordnance. In the absence of significant guided rounds for those 777's, the Ukraine's didn't really get much of an upgrade just some replacement equipment. IMO the only signifcant advantage of NATO 155mm is the ability to use PGK or other terminally guided sub munition rounds. It's also possible the donation had nothing to do with providing a precision capability and was just to allow for the use of NATO stockpiles of ammo, since 152mm is a little harder to find inside the alliance. But given the other advanced weapons being provided I'd think that < $10,000 GPS guidance kits would be an easy drop in to the aid package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Josh said: Never go full Hitler... As for Western aid, it looks like it will ultimately include about a half dozen battalions of M777 and a couple polyglot SP battalions in the near term. I've heard a lot of HIMARs rumors but seen nothing confirmed, and while the US says the majority of its towed systems have been delivered we haven't seen any trace of them yet (presumably a lot of equipment and personnel have to be integrated to form up the new battalions). I've also heard a rumor of Excalibur being part of the ammunition package, but nothing else referring to guided ordnance. In the absence of significant guided rounds for those 777's, the Ukraine's didn't really get much of an upgrade just some replacement equipment. IMO the only signifcant advantage of NATO 155mm is the ability to use PGK or other terminally guided sub munition rounds. It's also possible the donation had nothing to do with providing a precision capability and was just to allow for the use of NATO stockpiles of ammo, since 152mm is a little harder to find inside the alliance. But given the other advanced weapons being provided I'd think that < $10,000 GPS guidance kits would be an easy drop in to the aid package. Someone from DoD stated today that M777s are already used in combat. For the precision strikes, I don't think we'll be informed about the details unless some irrefutable evidence surfaces from other then official sources. One advantage the 155mm might bring is the availability of airburst fuses - I don't think we saw 1 video of those being used by 152 artillery in this war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, Huba said: Someone from DoD stated today that M777s are already used in combat. For the precision strikes, I don't think we'll be informed about the details unless some irrefutable evidence surfaces from other then official sources. One advantage the 155mm might bring is the availability of airburst fuses - I don't think we saw 1 video of those being used by 152 artillery in this war. Ukrainians don’t have airburst? I thought that was standard kit for both Ukrainians and Russians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyinsane105 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Josh said: Never go full Hitler... As for Western aid, it looks like it will ultimately include about a half dozen battalions of M777 and a couple polyglot SP battalions in the near term. I've heard a lot of HIMARs rumors but seen nothing confirmed, and while the US says the majority of its towed systems have been delivered we haven't seen any trace of them yet (presumably a lot of equipment and personnel have to be integrated to form up the new battalions). I've also heard a rumor of Excalibur being part of the ammunition package, but nothing else referring to guided ordnance. In the absence of significant guided rounds for those 777's, the Ukraine's didn't really get much of an upgrade just some replacement equipment. IMO the only signifcant advantage of NATO 155mm is the ability to use PGK or other terminally guided sub munition rounds. It's also possible the donation had nothing to do with providing a precision capability and was just to allow for the use of NATO stockpiles of ammo, since 152mm is a little harder to find inside the alliance. But given the other advanced weapons being provided I'd think that < $10,000 GPS guidance kits would be an easy drop in to the aid package. Could just be that these PGMs will require a bit more training before it’s actually in the hands of the Ukr army? That’s my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Just now, crazyinsane105 said: Ukrainians don’t have airburst? I thought that was standard kit for both Ukrainians and Russians You'd think that there would be some video evidence of it being used, right ? I didn't see any yet - either it's a weird coincidence, or they have it in very short supply. Same goes for Russians BTW, seems contact fuses are the only one employed in numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, Huba said: Someone from DoD stated today that M777s are already used in combat. For the precision strikes, I don't think we'll be informed about the details unless some irrefutable evidence surfaces from other then official sources. One advantage the 155mm might bring is the availability of airburst fuses - I don't think we saw 1 video of those being used by 152 artillery in this war. Does anyone still have Fascam stocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Ant Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Biden has a hard job finding the toilet, assuming a conspiracy of this level is far beyond his capabilities. I honestly don't get this dismissive attitude towards Biden's cognitive abilities that seems to be so popular in conservative circles. He has a mild speech impediment and isn't as quick as he used to be, but on what grounds do people accuse him of being any more dense than most other U.S. presidents, PARTICULARLY when the previous POTUS was Trump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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