Stuart Galbraith Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 (edited) Well its occams razor isnt it. I can think of a dozen reasons why the Syrian Government want to use chemical weapons. I cannot think of a single one why the Rebels want to keep using them on their own people to provoke a response they surely know by now is never coming, when they could achieve some significant strategic affects if they loaded them on a homemade mortar and lofted them onto a Russian or Syrian airfield. Does anyone doubt the Mujaheddin would have done? Even smuggling it out the country and hitting airports or shopping centres in Turkey or Iraq would achieve significant effects (leaving aside the moral considerations). Or alternatively, keeping them for the final stand and take as many Russians and Syrians with them as they could. But they have been in the final stand for months, and no efforts have been made to use them on Russian soldiers. I thank you for upping the video. But the narrative that the Rebels are the only ones using chemical weapons and that most of them are fakes are ridiculous, and dont take 5 minutes though to determine them as much. The problem is people are not using their deductive reasoning and just assuming the propaganda narrative is true. Maybe its just easier for some people to slip their brain in neutral and keep sipping the koolaid. Edited February 24, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 As for Raqqa, point to the evidence there were not deliberate, selective strikes and an attempt to minimise the loss of civilian life. Can you point to this being the same? No. I do not know what is "evidence" for you, but massive and indiscriminate destruction of Raqqa is so obvious even pro-Western organizations like Amnesty International can't avoid investigating ithttps://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/04/syria-unprecedented-investigation-reveals-us-led-coalition-killed-more-than-1600-civilians-in-raqqa-death-trap/Syria: Unprecedented investigation reveals US-led Coalition killed more than 1,600 civilians in Raqqa ‘death trap’ What is the point of showing Tu-22Ms releasing bombs, while not showing them destroying targets - ISIS facilities in the middle of desert, not urban areas bombed by US&Co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The organizations that determined that Syria are using poison gas are the same ones that determined that the attack on the Skripals house was by a Russian produced nerve agent. So no surprise there you reject it out of hand. Nice to see you, not me, drawing the link between "chemical attacks" in Syria and " attack on the Skripals" - since, as is known first ones were staged, it's another demonstration second one was also stagedhttps://www.globalresearch.ca/new-evidence-opcw-doctored-douma-syria-report/5698988New Evidence of OPCW Manufactured Nonexistent Douma Chemical Weapons Incident, Syria Report, Promoted “Fake News”Re " When was the last time you saw a Russian soldier or groundcrewman in NBC kit? Never, Because they know its never going to be used on them." - no idea why you are harming your reputation by direct and obvious disinformation attempt, as Syrian rebels trying to use improvised chemical weapons against SAA&Militia during desperate attempts to turn the tide of Aleppo battle was brought on This Great Site years ago (and yes it shown Russian soldiers in NBC suits) And it is not something new to this civil war By the way what happened with local search engine& Any way to search my own old postings by key words? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 (edited) Well its occams razor isnt it. I can think of a dozen reasons why the Syrian Government want to use chemical weapons. I cannot think of a single one why the Rebels want to keep using them on their own people to provoke a response they surely know by now is never coming, when they could achieve some significant strategic affects if they loaded them on a homemade mortar and lofted them onto a Russian or Syrian airfield. Does anyone doubt the Mujaheddin would have done? Even smuggling it out the country and hitting airports or shopping centres in Turkey or Iraq would achieve significant effects (leaving aside the moral considerations). Or alternatively, keeping them for the final stand and take as many Russians and Syrians with them as they could. But they have been in the final stand for months, and no efforts have been made to use them on Russian soldiers. I thank you for upping the video. But the narrative that the Rebels are the only ones using chemical weapons and that most of them are fakes are ridiculous, and dont take 5 minutes though to determine them as much. The problem is people are not using their deductive reasoning and just assuming the propaganda narrative is true. Maybe its just easier for some people to slip their brain in neutral and keep sipping the koolaid.If you can get some commando force to hit an airbase with a mortar, you can do more damage hitting planes in the open with HE than lobbing a chemical agent into the general vicinity. If they wanted to use a small amount of some chemical agent to maximal effect, it would be a terrorist attack on some crowded Damscus market or similar, with some threat to follow up with similar attacks if there is not some ceasefire or similar. But this would not stop them losing the war. Hoping to garner decisive US support was one path to victory, as in Libya. This is now implausible, but it was not somewhat recently. But as Roman point sout above, there have been (not very effectual) attempt by rebels to use chemical agents as battlefield weapons. Edited February 24, 2020 by KV7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Well its occams razor isnt it. I can think of a dozen reasons why the Syrian Government want to use chemical weapons. I cannot think of a single one why the Rebels want to keep using them on their own people to provoke a response they surely know by now is never coming, when they could achieve some significant strategic affects if they loaded them on a homemade mortar and lofted them onto a Russian or Syrian airfield.For the same reason they are not doing this with regular explosives: Russian and Syrian airfields are located in heavily pro-Gov areas, surrounded by friendly population, and well protected. The only way to reach them for rebels now is long-range drones, and they are trying it almost daily. Chgemical weapons (especially improvised mixes used by rebels) are not some magic tool, their effect is in fact inferior to regular explosives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Well its occams razor isnt it. I can think of a dozen reasons why the Syrian Government want to use chemical weapons. I cannot think of a single one why the Rebels want to keep using them on their own people to provoke a response they surely know by now is never coming, when they could achieve some significant strategic affects if they loaded them on a homemade mortar and lofted them onto a Russian or Syrian airfield. Does anyone doubt the Mujaheddin would have done? Even smuggling it out the country and hitting airports or shopping centres in Turkey or Iraq would achieve significant effects (leaving aside the moral considerations). Or alternatively, keeping them for the final stand and take as many Russians and Syrians with them as they could. But they have been in the final stand for months, and no efforts have been made to use them on Russian soldiers. I thank you for upping the video. But the narrative that the Rebels are the only ones using chemical weapons and that most of them are fakes are ridiculous, and dont take 5 minutes though to determine them as much. The problem is people are not using their deductive reasoning and just assuming the propaganda narrative is true. Maybe its just easier for some people to slip their brain in neutral and keep sipping the koolaid.If you can get some commando force to hit an airbase with a mortar, you can do more damage hitting planes in the open with HE than lobbing a chemical agent into the general vicinity. If they wanted to use a small amount of some chemical agent to maximal effect, it would be a terrorist attack on some crowded Damscus market or similar, with some threat to follow up with similar attacks if there is not some ceasefire or similar. But this would not stop them losing the war. Hoping to garner decisive US support was one path to victory, as in Libya. This is now implausible, but it was not somewhat recently. But as roman point out above, there have been (not very effectual) attempt by rebels to use chemical agents as battlefield weapons. No reason you cant do both. You get people to shelter in dugouts, and then chorine or sarine concentration is going to be greater. In the end the belief there is a giant conspiracy to fake chemical attack has to explain why its still ongoing when its not worked for 7 years. Still they keep plugging away murdering their own people, and still there is no evidence its ever happened other than some accusations, that only ever seem to come from the Russian Government. Whereas there is plenty of evidence the Syrian military had a chemical weapon stockpile (Russia even sold it is version of VX via corrupt generals in the early 90's), and happily pounds urban areas with unguided weapons without a second through. You have to go with whats more likely, and abandon what you want to believe and go with the evidence. Anyway, in other news, Turkey is denying transit to Russian military Aircraft. February 22, 2020 at 12:00 pm 1.2K SHARES Share to Facebook Share to TwitterShare to RedditShare to EmailShare to More https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200222-turkey-prevents-4-russian-military-aircrafts-from-crossing-into-syria/ Russian daily newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that Turkey has prevented four Russian military aircraft, including two bombers, from crossing its airspace to Syria.Field sources knowledgeable about the Russian Hmeimim Air Base, revealed on Thursday that the Russian forces brought in military reinforcements from the storage facilities of the Russian army to the airbase, in an indication that battles may intensify in north-western Syria.The sources revealed to Al-Quds Al-Arabi the arrival of heavy shipments of modern Russian tanks and missile launchers, heavy artillery and anti-armour missiles, in addition to shipments of bombs and missiles used by Russian strategic bombers and fighters, as well as the bombs used by Sukhoi aircraft of various categories. Russian reinforcements also included tanks, troop carriers and mechanisms used to lift dirt berms and build fortifications, as well as defensive barriers.The measures undertaken by the Russian forces came as tension escalates and rifts deepens between Ankara and Moscow over the developments in Idlib and the countryside of Aleppo, northern Syria, especially following the failure of technical and political negotiations between Russian officials and their Turkish counterparts. Not sure if this has been listed before, but Turkey is asking for USAF airstrikes along its border.https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200221-turkey-requests-us-air-support-as-fighting-heats-up-in-idlib/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 In preparation for the Turkish Army making its presence felt in something larger than platoon strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Anyone thinking the Syrian Government is showing new competence? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32339/crazy-video-out-of-syria-shows-an-armored-personnel-carrier-brawling-with-a-t-72-tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Anyone thinking the Syrian Government is showing new competence? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32339/crazy-video-out-of-syria-shows-an-armored-personnel-carrier-brawling-with-a-t-72-tankCould you please explain the link between Syrian Government competence or incompetence with this video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Modern Turkish UAV Anka-S shot down by SAA in South Idlibhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERooOkjX0AEbM8B?format=jpg&https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERojfrwW4AETQnz?format=jpg&https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERor0uTWAAENXyK?format=jpg&More pictures here https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5665119.html SAA retreating from Nayrab under pressure of Turkish armor and artillery accompaniyin rebel infantruy, while other SAA units advancing in South Idlibhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERosyVBXkAAJNSE?format=jpg& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Anyone thinking the Syrian Government is showing new competence? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32339/crazy-video-out-of-syria-shows-an-armored-personnel-carrier-brawling-with-a-t-72-tankCould you please explain the link between Syrian Government competence or incompetence with this video? I would have been better to have said military. But all things considered, allowing a APC to sneak on your tank and ram you, ranks pretty highly on the 'do not promote' scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 More progress north of Hama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Anyone thinking the Syrian Government is showing new competence? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32339/crazy-video-out-of-syria-shows-an-armored-personnel-carrier-brawling-with-a-t-72-tankCould you please explain the link between Syrian Government competence or incompetence with this video? I would have been better to have said military. But all things considered, allowing a APC to sneak on your tank and ram you, ranks pretty highly on the 'do not promote' scales. Taking into consideration Taliban improvised VBIEDs are more or less successful in hitting US convoys and bases (while having only fraction of training and resources provided to Idlib rebels by NATO #2 country Turkey), it is no surprise APC was able to sneak to lonely tank operated in very unfavorable terrain. The only surprise actually is it failed to detonate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wouter2 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 A rebel/jihadi/Turkish attack has cut the M5 road again, north of Saraqib near a Turkish observation point. Turkey seems to be getting more serious, at least in the area east of Idlib city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The only surprise actually is it failed to detonate. A member of the crew entrusted with that task may have had second thoughts. Turkey seems to be getting more serious Killing Turkish troops, in a geographic and political setting where Turkish armored Divisions may be committed in response, was going to escalate the situation eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) A rebel/jihadi/Turkish attack has cut the M5 road again, north of Saraqib near a Turkish observation point. Turkey seems to be getting more serious, at least in the area east of Idlib city. And at the same time the Syrians are looking to encircle the southern portion of the Rebel held territory. If they can do that, it means they can shorten the line and free up more soldiers to fight and not just defend. Edited February 27, 2020 by Colin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Anyone thinking the Syrian Government is showing new competence? https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32339/crazy-video-out-of-syria-shows-an-armored-personnel-carrier-brawling-with-a-t-72-tankCould you please explain the link between Syrian Government competence or incompetence with this video? I would have been better to have said military. But all things considered, allowing a APC to sneak on your tank and ram you, ranks pretty highly on the 'do not promote' scales. Taking into consideration Taliban improvised VBIEDs are more or less successful in hitting US convoys and bases (while having only fraction of training and resources provided to Idlib rebels by NATO #2 country Turkey), it is no surprise APC was able to sneak to lonely tank operated in very unfavorable terrain. The only surprise actually is it failed to detonate. Show me where they attacked an Abrams with a 'Gavin' and I would agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Claim here that the recent introduction of Mandpads into the conflict may be eroding Syrian air supremacy.https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/syria-what-the-rebel-downing-of-helicopters-means-for-idlib-bombardment-1.985361 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolas93TS Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Saraqib fell during the night. It comes as no surprise, as regular (won't really call them elite) Russian backed divisions were further south crushing rebel salient and capturing large swathes of territory. When above mentioned units were in the area, rebels couldn't advance an inch, but once Iranian backed (and at this stage, pretty incompetent) Republican Guard relieved them, Saraqib and nearby area fell in matter of days. RG and 4th Armoured are collecting embarrassing defeats and failures one after another, and I wouldn't be surprised if Russians are perfectly fine with that (it could even be a deliberate strategy) as they are trying to purge the SAA of officers and militias loyal to Iran. They were vital for ensuring regime survival in 2013-2015, when it had to remedy manpower shortages with locally raised militias. However, at this point of war those units are of highly dubious military utility and they are also a high political liability as they depend on Iran. 25th Division (Tiger Forces) will recapture Saraqib, unless Turks intervene even more aggressively. This is certainly a timetable setback for M4 highway recapture, but regime will try hard to retake and secure both M4 and M5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KV7 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) T-72 'Shafrah' mod, one allegedly has been captured by rebels (third/last pic). Edited February 27, 2020 by KV7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-security-turkey-erdogan/erdogan-says-three-more-turkish-soldiers-killed-in-syrias-idlib-idUKKCN20L1QJ?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews ANKARA (Reuters) - President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday three more Turkish soldiers had been killed in Syria’s Idlib region, where Turkey’s military is backing Syrian rebels against government forces, but that developments there were turning in Ankara’s favour.“We have three martyrs, let them rest in peace. But on the other hand, the regime’s losses are very big,” Erdogan said in a speech. Including the latest three deaths, 21 members of the Turkish forces have been killed in Idlib this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Alymov Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 I would have been better to have said military. But all things considered, allowing a APC to sneak on your tank and ram you, ranks pretty highly on the 'do not promote' scales. Taking into consideration Taliban improvised VBIEDs are more or less successful in hitting US convoys and bases (while having only fraction of training and resources provided to Idlib rebels by NATO #2 country Turkey), it is no surprise APC was able to sneak to lonely tank operated in very unfavorable terrain. The only surprise actually is it failed to detonate. Show me where they attacked an Abrams with a 'Gavin' and I would agree with you. No idea what "Gavin" you mean, but here are p;ld pictures of M1 Abrams approached and destroyed by VBIEDhttps://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/comments/9d2lf5/vbied_parks_inches_from_an_iraqi_m1_abrams/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mistral Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 It looks like a Russian strike has killed over 30 Turkish soldiers. Where are the Turkish F-16s the world wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mistral Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 And reports of said F-16s taking off from Diyarbakir, interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Repeated slaps to the collective Turkish face, increasing in strength, will provoke a response. Possibly corps sized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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