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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The problem is that if the Saudis and Iran both become allies of China, then Chinese influence will have too much control of Western energy supply.  Keeping the Saudis close has been fundamental to all US administrations since the 1970's.    Now, because of Biden, that's over.

China has little influence on who anyone in the mideast sells to - they have zero military presence in the region. They float a couple ships of Somalia sometimes at that's it. Perhaps Europe buys a fair amount of their oil there but the US does not. In any case, it doesn't overly matter which country sells oil to which other country, so long as the oil is in play somewhere in the market. The KSA may sell predominantly to EUrope and China, but if they suddenly didn't bring any oil to market anyone who buys oil period suffers. Thus the US has always had a vested interest in securing oil production in the mid east, regardless of who they actually are buying from. But Chinese influence in the region is negligible and will continue to be so until they set up a fleet or air base in the region. Until that day, it is the US that can turn that spigot on and off with military force and the US who underwrites Saudi security.

 

It isn't clear to me the Biden admin is refusing to adopt JCPOA. All I know is a new deal hasn't been reached. For JCPOA to be re-established, Iran would have to role back a huge amount of its nuclear activity, including somehow disposing of a lot of HEU. I highly doubt that is something they are willing to do just to return to JCPOA but I don't have details on the negotiations.

Edited by Josh
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Josh said:

Enrichment gets pretty trivial once you are past 20%, let alone 60%.

Yes, but quantity matters too.

 

2 hours ago, Josh said:

EI think it would take Iran detonating a device for the US to do anything about it. Israel on the other hand probably has a lower threshold, and even if it can't achieve its goals militarily, it can start war that likely will drag the US into the equation.

Does Iran even need to?  Other than for the signaling, but I guess one wants to be 100% sure.

Israel, afaik, never did (although Wiki alleges two).  Design can be validated by the helpful third party.

 

In any case they will likely stop right at the line and  will keep busy building missiles, drones  and AA assets.

 

2 hours ago, Josh said:

It is rather amazing how little press coverage this gets in the West; Trump and the Ukraine war have sucked all the air out of the room. Had this happened in 2021 I feel like the US media would have WAR WITH IRAN? headlines everywhere by now.

 

 And that's with Taiwan not even hot yet, so looks like Iranians have some time.

Edited by Strannik
Posted
3 hours ago, Josh said:

It isn't clear to me the Biden admin is refusing to adopt JCPOA. All I know is a new deal hasn't been reached. For JCPOA to be re-established, Iran would have to role back a huge amount of its nuclear activity, including somehow disposing of a lot of HEU. I highly doubt that is something they are willing to do just to return to JCPOA but I don't have details on the negotiations.

It enriched to 84% very quickly, and managed to fool the west for a long time regarding clandestined activities. Same goes for Assad regarding chemical weapons. They'll do fine.

The other reasons why JCPOA isn't doable, not now nor last year, are the fact it's full of sunset clauses, some of which should expire just about now.

Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

It enriched to 84% very quickly, and managed to fool the west for a long time regarding clandestined activities. Same goes for Assad regarding chemical weapons. They'll do fine.

The other reasons why JCPOA isn't doable, not now nor last year, are the fact it's full of sunset clauses, some of which should expire just about now.

Ok, well the ball is in your court. Neither a Trump administration or Biden administration is going to do anything about it. If you think that is an improvement over JCPOA, help yourself to 84% right now.

Edited by Josh
Posted
28 minutes ago, Josh said:

Ok, well the ball is in your court. Neither a Trump administration or Biden administration is going to do anything about it. If you think that is an improvement over JCPOA, help yourself to 84% right now.

The JCPOA was, from the beginning, a very problematic concept - let Iran have what they want, as long as they promise to delay nukes by a few years. This meant Iran could have nukes by 2025 instead of, say, 2020, but by then Iran would have made significant progress closing the gaps between it and Israel+USA and increased its deterrence.

It's like watching a bottle of wine spill on a rug, but instead of picking it right away to prevent further spillage, you just take a nap because you're too tired to deal with it right now.

Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Josh said:

China has little influence on who anyone in the mideast sells to - they have zero military presence in the region. They float a couple ships of Somalia sometimes at that's it. Perhaps Europe buys a fair amount of their oil there but the US does not. In any case, it doesn't overly matter which country sells oil to which other country, so long as the oil is in play somewhere in the market. The KSA may sell predominantly to EUrope and China, but if they suddenly didn't bring any oil to market anyone who buys oil period suffers. Thus the US has always had a vested interest in securing oil production in the mid east, regardless of who they actually are buying from. But Chinese influence in the region is negligible and will continue to be so until they set up a fleet or air base in the region. Until that day, it is the US that can turn that spigot on and off with military force and the US who underwrites Saudi security.

 

It isn't clear to me the Biden admin is refusing to adopt JCPOA. All I know is a new deal hasn't been reached. For JCPOA to be re-established, Iran would have to role back a huge amount of its nuclear activity, including somehow disposing of a lot of HEU. I highly doubt that is something they are willing to do just to return to JCPOA but I don't have details on the negotiations.

There is some strategic issues at stake where China does or can build some influence

(1) Overall levels of production. 

(2) Pattern of investment in production and infrastructure in the oil sector

(3) Pattern of development of the non-oil sector. 

(4) Geostrategic alignment

For KSA, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, and perhaps others, there is a common interest in diversifying away from oil, which is shared by China, as they also want to see a general development of the non-western world and especially potentially BRICS aligned nations, and they also are able to benefit from non oil related investments. 

The policy of the oil producers here will tend towards output restrictions as reserves fall, and revenue is needed over decades to fund diversification.  

In the case of KSA, it seems a major fear is some domestic revolutionary process caused by a failure to oversee a successful diversification. I.e. oil prices fall, the state has some fiscal crisis, and then there is some colour revolution or even some ~ Salafist insurrection. In this respect the effective counter to it is plausibly not further Western alignments and military purchases from the West (which failed to produce an army that could even win in Yemen) but economic cooperation with China. This is more so the case as some sort of repeat of the Gulf war (1990-91) which plausibly would have a solution involving U.S. intervention declines towards zero. 

The big advantage China (and to some extent Germany too) has is proficiency in producing the medium to medium-high technology goods needed in large quantity to achieve the transition from a moderately to fully industrialised economy, and the ability to supply credit and FDI.  

I think in particular we will see some deals involving Chinese industrial FDI into the Middle East, in for example cement and building products, automobiles, petroleum products including plastics and rubber products, chemicals etc.  

Edited by KV7
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 months later...
Posted

➡️  F-35A fighter jet of the US Air Force shot down a Turkish Anka-S drone in Syria over Hasaka.  

The Turkish drone had targeted the positions of SDF (US allies) in North East of Syria.

⬅️  Turkey retaliates and attacks Syrian US controlled oilfields.

 

 

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

So after several rounds of strikes on US bases and US air counter strikes on misc militias there are claims from militia's side of four US KIAs  during a strike on Koniko/Conoco base.

No confirmation from US or MSM.

 

Edited by Strannik

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