Wouter2

Russian sabotage?

Interesting, thanks. Good news that Poland will get its own capabilities to support the European Abrams fleet.

That's a nice idea. Who are the realistic candidates that could actually get elected, both in primaries and the actual election? Does Vance have a chance or not? Any obvious candidates on the Democrat side?

Exactly. If Russia would declare a unilateral ceasefire among the current line of contact now, it could probably back out of the hot part of the war without much problems. Even if Ukraine would want to fight on (which is not that likely ATM), its partners likely would pressure it to agree to a ceasefire. And if they are willing to give some portion of occupied land back to Ukraine without a fight, they could probably negotiate a peace deal that would be quite advantegeous, especially with Trump - and probably European countries - looking to do business again.

Apparently, the same or very similar model (with same FP5 designation) is marketed by Emirate based Milanion company: https://milaniongroup.com/fp5/

I've read somewhere that the batteries engaged Iraqi planes in (semi)automatic mode. Some claims that a Su-22 and MiG23BN were downed.

Apparently Thailand has both original F16A/B block 15 models and some F16AM/BM upgrades, if wikipedia is to be believed. Also a number of F5E's and a dozen Gripens. As far as air force goes, Thailand largely outclasses Cambodia, which apparently doesn't have combat airplanes, only transports and helis.

Didn't they eventually do just that? IIRC the Kuznetsov flew off its fighters to land bases before it left, after the loss of 2 planes while trying to land on the unreliable carrier.

I think that aircraft carriers still have military value, but probably more for natons like the US and China who can still afford to have capable ones. The ability to have a mobile and well equipped airfield without poilitical strings attached is certainly useful for certain middle east conflicts, where the carriers don't face the same kind of threats as against a peer enemy, or for potential conflicts in Africa. For the US, they are also useful for showing the flag and for disaster relief. Maybe no need for 10 of them, but dispensing entirely with them may not be wise even in the age of hypersonic missiles.

That's possible, but there are many people unhappy with the Mullah's and the apparatus around them. Iran likely got some spies/informants, but I doubt they got nearly all of them. Both Hezbollah and IRGC must have been deeply compromised, unlike Hamas and the Houthis.

Israel clearly at least had and probably still has lots of sources within Iran, giving they could decapitate the IRGC command and take out a significant part of the air defense systems in the first few hours. They also knew who the more important nuclear scientist were, and could locate them. Presumably they will have infiltrated sufficiently to be able to realistically assess the state of Iran's nuclear program post-war. If they are not happy, they will attack again at a point not too far in the future. I don't think we know either way.

Surely the Iranian parliament doesn't have any real say in this matter, that's a decision of IRGC/Khamenei.

This message may indicate Iran still wants to talk (still feels having something to lose):

Didn't Saddam, Qaddafi and North Korea already make that case? It depends on what damege the nuclear program took, along with the IRGC. Iran has a dilemma: it can respond strongly, or respond symbolically and seek negotations. If the former, it risks tanking its economy which would make it much harder to continue to pursue very expensive military programs. They already need to work on their air defence, which is clearly not near adequate at the moment. If the latter, it would probably have to agree to return to some kind of non-proliferation agreement.

I don't believe that for one second. A significant portion of the population, likely a comfortable majority going by the preferred regime candidate losing the elections for the president-without-supreme-powers, loathes the regime. And the reason they loathe it comes down to their internal repression and backwardness (in particular towards women) in what is otherwise a modern country. The religious and power politics of maximum confrontation with Israel, the US and to a slightly lesser extent SA isn't popular either, most people would rather the money wasted on IRGC and its proxies would go to improving their lives. The only ones who will support the regime are those who supported it already to begin with, because they are part of it or profit from it or because they are fully on board with the ideology. If anything, it may aid the relative "doves" within the regime as the agressive policies of the hawkish elements have not led to succes in the last 2 years or so. Yes, when do we think the Sino-Russian submarine force in the Indian Ocean will open fire?