China's Peaceful Rise

[sunday]

Remarkable opinion. According to the author, it looks like China should not be interested in a war over Taiwan, as her financial muscle would be enough to peacefully attract Taiwan.

There is some speculation about how the Chinese financial sector is different from the Western one, or about the spending priorities of the US government.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/yellen-dispatched-to-beg-china-for

[Josh]

3 hours ago, sunday said:

Remarkable opinion. According to the author, it looks like China should not be interested in a war over Taiwan, as her financial muscle would be enough to peacefully attract Taiwan.

There is some speculation about how the Chinese financial sector is different from the Western one, or about the spending priorities of the US government.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/yellen-dispatched-to-beg-china-for

I can agree that the U.S. needlessly wasted a vast amount of resources on Afghanistan and Iraq. But idea that China is a benign country looking for partners seems rather ridiculous. As for Taiwan itself, the treatment Hong Kong forever closed the door to any peaceful reunification while current Chinese government survives.

[glenn239]

Apparently this has long been threatened by China, but until now rarely done.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/china-sanctions-2-u-s-defense-companies-and-says-they-support-arms-sales-to-taiwan/ar-BB1lrFGz?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2c085ca8d2e046b09ff73993e2936b2e&ei=12

China on Thursday announced rare sanctions against two U.S. defense companies over what it called their support for arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy Beijing claims as its own territory to be recovered by force if necessary.

The announcement freezes the assets of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems held within China. It also bars the companies' management from entering the country.

[urbanoid]

19 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Apparently this has long been threatened by China, but until now rarely done.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/china-sanctions-2-u-s-defense-companies-and-says-they-support-arms-sales-to-taiwan/ar-BB1lrFGz?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2c085ca8d2e046b09ff73993e2936b2e&ei=12

China on Thursday announced rare sanctions against two U.S. defense companies over what it called their support for arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy Beijing claims as its own territory to be recovered by force if necessary.

The announcement freezes the assets of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems held within China. It also bars the companies' management from entering the country.

The single most ridiculous thing here is that General Atomics and GDLS had assets in China in the first place.

[glenn239]

Yellen gets another answer from Beijing,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/china-tells-telecom-firms-to-phase-out-foreign-chips-in-blow-to-intel-amd-wsj/ar-BB1lvgWG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c3c26a366b5743c682484bd3fb972448&ei=12

Chinese officials directed the country's largest telecom carriers earlier this year to phase out foreign chips that are key to their networks by 2027, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the development.

The move would impact U.S. chip giants Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, according to the report. Their shares were down more than 1.5% in premarket trading.

[Roman Alymov]

 

[seahawk]

Yes, America has weakened it's strategic position by involving itself in the Ukraine, a country that has no value for America.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, seahawk said:

Yes, America has weakened it's strategic position by involving itself in the Ukraine, a country that has no value for America.

I did not watch the video; I prefer written content, but to address your comment almost nothing given to Ukraine matters at all in the Pacific. The one major exception I can think of is MIM-missiles, although I question their survival rate anyway. In the meantime, the U.S. is burning through its other peer competitor’s equipment and ammunition for pennies on the dollar. A number of estimates indicate Russia will run out of some types of Soviet vehicle reserves to refurbish within a couple years.

[Josh]

This BI article  claims 300 million Chinese workers will pass retirement age in the next decade.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-retirement-crisis-pensions-aging-population-social-security-workforce-2024-5?amp

[glenn239]

That's part of the reason why China is going full tilt on robotic technologies I think.

[Josh]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

That's part of the reason why China is going full tilt on robotic technologies I think.

No doubt. The question is whether they will automate sufficiently in time to meet the shortfall.

Edited May 9, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

Several different estimates of PRC COVID fatalities peg their estimates at 1.5-3.5 million, will ~2 million being the most often repeated number.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/05/12/the-missing-factor-in-explanations-of-chinas-economic-distress-covid---part-2-estimating-the-true-death-toll/?sh=a1681877d073

[glenn239]

Report of a Chinese aircraft carrier, but only for drones.   The picture at the top is garbage, but further down there's a satellite shot of the ship,

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-unveils-drone-exclusive-aircraft-carrier-a-global-first/ar-BB1mzw5A?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=78cc3441d3824d8086bf7b7fe2a6555e&ei=21

 

 

[Josh]

I was plugging away looking for stats on to orbit launches this year. I believe China wants to get to 100, where as SpaceX wants to break 140 by itself. The PRC wants to orbit more than ten thousand satellites by the end of the decade, but that will take an order of magnitude or two increase from its current launch capacity. As always, Gunter has all the data, and even compiled it into pie charts:

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2024.htm

 

What is important to note is the Falcon 9 blows the vast majority of the Chinese rockets out of the water in terms of kg to orbit (~17,000kg with recovery), so the actual discrepancy is really far worse: there were ~90 F9 launches last year and 67 Chinese ones total, but the difference in payload capacity was more like 7:1 (and this ignores all other US rockets AND Falcon Heavy) and the number of satellites launched was more like 10:1.*

There are four, maybe even five new F9 clones that are going to attempt to launch next year (technically one of them already launched accidently in an engine test - that program likely is now set back a year or two). The government developed CZ-12 is still scheduled for this year. But while all of them claim to have a plan for reusability, no one has demonstrated anything more than some rather low altitude hops so far. Reusability, even if PRC industries take a fraction of the time it took SpaceX (which does seem likely), is probably several more years away. China is going to have to massively pump out single use rockets from all of its venders if it wants to get to even F9 levels of capacity, and its not like the US rocket industry is going to be holding still in the meantime.

 

*ETA: work horse launchers like CZ-2F or CZ-8 are less than half the capacity of an F9. The only rocket that exceeds F9 in PRC inventory currently is CZ-5, which is a heavy lifter (>20,000 kg). However an F9 that burns all its fuel to orbit (and thus is not recovered) is still about 80% of the CZ-5s capacity, and there are rarely more than a couple CZ-5 launches per year where as F9 will likely break a hundred this year.

On Gunter's page, click on the "Details" option that lists every satellite individually instead of just the launches and you can see how Falcon by itself eats the rest of the world's lunch.
 

Edited July 31, 2024 by Josh

[ink]

Most of you wi have seen this already but it's an interesting development, given that it comes at a time of heightened nuclear tensions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gl843l90zo

 

[txtree99]

China having issues with subs

 

 

[Josh]

I remember the incident where a bunch of crane barges were observed, but it was unclear what had happened. There was no obvious evidence of a salvage.

[glenn239]

New York Times Article on the impact of losing Iran's oil supplies on China,

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/04/business/iran-oil-sales-china.html

About 15% of China's imports are from Iran, but the article suggests that OPEC has 5 million barrels a day spare capacity that could take up the slack.   The implication is that China's oil supply interests could be accommodated in an Israeli strike on Iranian oil production.

Whether Iran would permit OPEC to tacitly cooperate in an Israeli strike on Iran without using its own resources to destroy OPEC's oil production capacity in direct retaliation for such a scheme, the article does not outline.  

Edited October 5, 2024 by glenn239

[Josh]

I can see Iran punishing a GCC state for hosting Israeli aircraft; I cannot see them starting a war just because they lost market share. In any case, engaging in a scorched earth policy against mid east oil definitely would piss off China and the U.S. Not a great place to be.

If I were Israel I would just attack refineries, preferably equipment that produced gasoline. That keeps the problem largely a local one. But of course the other option is that Bibi wants to hurt the U.S. as a way of increasing Trump’s chances, in which case Kharg is the logical target.

Edited October 5, 2024 by Josh

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

I can see Iran punishing a GCC state for hosting Israeli aircraft; I cannot see them starting a war just because they lost market share. In any case, engaging in a scorched earth policy against East is oil definitely would piss off China and the U.S. Not a great place to be.

I've no idea what would or will happen, but in terms of the premise of the article, I don't think the Gulf States would be wise to take Israel's side in a regional war by boosting production to cover attacks on Iran.  That would be asking to be treated by Iran as an ally of Israel.  In terms of China, I think the Iranian attitude would be, if China is going to go along with that type of thing, then fuck China.   Interdict their alternative sources of export and let them pay much higher prices.

Quote

If I were Israel I would just attack refineries, preferably equipment that produced gasoline. That keeps the problem largely a local one.  But of course the other option is that Bibi wants to hurt the U.S. has a way of increasing Trump’s chances, in which case Kharg is the logical target.

That's all fine for Israel, but for Iran the response would need to come at the cost of Arab cooperation in production in order that Israel's actions do not affect Iran's revenues as an oil exporter.  Gulf States like Kuwait and Bahrain have no interest in complications in the Straights of Hormuz, for example.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2024 by glenn239

[Josh]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I've no idea what would or will happen, but in terms of the premise of the article, I don't think the Gulf States would be wise to take Israel's side in a regional war by boosting production to cover attacks on Iran.  That would be asking to be treated by Iran as an ally of Israel.  In terms of China, I think the Iranian attitude would be, if China is going to go along with that type of thing, then fuck China.   Interdict their alternative sources of export and let them pay much higher prices.

Mid East gonna mid East, but if I were Iran, I would not want to be on the wrong side of the U.S. and China. But whatever.

 

 

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

That's all fine for Israel, but for Iran the response would need to come at the cost of Arab cooperation in production in order that Israel's actions do not affect Iran's revenues as an oil exporter.  Gulf States like Kuwait and Bahrain have no interest in complications in the Straights of Hormuz, for example.

 

 

I doubt Israel cares at all what the GCC thinks with regards to its fight with Iran and its proxies. It’s funny how you think Israel is shackled by political concerns but some how Iran is not.

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Josh said:

I doubt Israel cares at all what the GCC thinks with regards to its fight with Iran and its proxies. It’s funny how you think Israel is shackled by political concerns but some how Iran is not.

What I said is that the Arab states are themselves vulnerable both in terms of their infrastructure as well as public opinion.   The Israelis, for their part, seem to have a blank cheque in Washington to do whatever they want.  

[futon]

Taiwan raised its alert level on Dec 9, saying China has set up seven zones of reserved airspace and deployed naval fleets and coast guard boats in what a security source called the first military drills across a broad swathe of the region’s waters.

A senior Taipei security official told Reuters that China currently has nearly 90 navy and coast guard ships in waters near Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands and the East and South China Seas, of which around two-thirds were navy vessels.

China’s Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. But Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China would “firmly defend” its sovereignty and insisted democratically governed Taiwan was an “inalienable” part of its territory.

China had been expected to launch another round of exercises in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s trip to the Pacific, which included stopovers in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam, security sources told Reuters.

China has set up seven “temporary reserved areas” of airspace to the east of its eastern Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said in a statement, adding those zones are valid from Dec 9 to 11.

...

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwan-on-high-alert-after-chinas-military-restricts-airspace

[glenn239]

Pakistan will be the first foreign customer to receive the J-35,

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-to-acquire-40-chinese-stealth-fighters-all-about-china-j-35-fighter-a-stealth-rival-to-us-lockheed-martin-f35-11735000787818.html

The thing that catches the attention is the delivery schedule - 40 aircraft in less than 2 years. 

[futon]

Loading them up with radars.

MANILA (Kyodo) -- The Philippines will equip its northernmost province of Batanes with coastal surveillance radars provided by Japan, the country's top military official said Thursday, emphasizing the need to bolster defense and keep a critical waterway near Taiwan open.

Japan announced in 2023 a grant of five coastal surveillance radars valued at 600 million yen ($3.8 million) to the Philippines under its "official security assistance" framework, established that year to deepen security cooperation with like-minded nations. In December, Tokyo pledged to provide an additional set of radars.

...

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250110/p2g/00m/0in/006000c

Edited January 11 by futon