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China's Peaceful Rise


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An Argentine politician is not believed even when he says good morning. The new president in three days in office has broken 70% of his campaign promises. 

* Famous phase of a former Argentine president: If I said what I was going to do, no one would vote for me.

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BEIJING, Dec. 14 -- "We urge the Japanese side to immediately stop meddling in China's internal affairs, stop spreading false narratives, and stop hyping up the so-called 'Chinese military threat' as an excuse for its military expansion," Chinese Defense Spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang said at a regular press briefing on Thursday.

According to media, the Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies had recently released the China Security Report 2024. When being asked to comment on the report, the spokesperson made the above remarks.

The spokesperson said that such reports released by the Japanese side always preset ill-intentioned positions and smear China's legitimate and rational national defense and military development. China firmly opposes such irresponsible and unprofessional reports.

The spokesperson added that China adheres to a national defense policy that is defensive in nature and the Chinese military has consistently been a staunch force for maintaining world peace. Taiwan is an integral part of China, and the resolution of the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese people themselves. Japan has no right to comment on or interfere in it.

Following on, the spokesperson pointed out that in recent years, Japan has repeatedly violated the constraints of its pacifist Constitution, and sought the development of offensive weapons, turning back the wheel of history and endangering regional peace and stability. This has triggered high vigilance and strong concerns among its neighboring countries and the international community.

Therefore, the spokesperson called out to the Japanese side to stop meddling in China's internal affairs, stop spreading false narratives, and stop hyping up the so-called "Chinese military threat" as an excuse for its military expansion, lest further losing its credibility within its Asian neighbors and the international community.

http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/NewsRelease/16273516.html

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1 hour ago, sunday said:

China designing nuclear powered containerships bigger than aircraft carriers, and using a novel nuclear tecnology, too.

 

I’ll believe it when I see it. There is barely an economic/strategic case for nuclear power in an aircraft carrier; I can’t imagine a relative novice at marine nuclear engineering is going to construct such a thing.

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1 hour ago, Josh said:

I’ll believe it when I see it. There is barely an economic/strategic case for nuclear power in an aircraft carrier; I can’t imagine a relative novice at marine nuclear engineering is going to construct such a thing.

Well, they got examples to learn from, with decades of experience of both construction and use

 

 

Edited by Roman Alymov
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On 12/14/2023 at 1:59 PM, mandeb48 said:

An Argentine politician is not believed even when he says good morning. The new president in three days in office has broken 70% of his campaign promises. 

* Famous phase of a former Argentine president: If I said what I was going to do, no one would vote for me.

Congrats to Argentina - I feel their clown-president will put to shame the rest of his brothers-in-circus:

 

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1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well, they got examples to learn from, with decades of experience of both construction and use

 

 


Russia has forgotten more about marine nuclear engineering than China has ever known. Perhaps they will share, but since such knowledge directly impacts their strategic deterrent, I would bet on no.

 

ETA: also it’s not like Russian ice breakers were a globally economically efficient way of handling shipping. The requirements were driven by government specs in a very sparsely populated, specific part of the world, not any kind of economic efficiency.

Edited by Josh
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1 hour ago, Strannik said:

Congrats to Argentina - I feel their clown-president will put to shame the rest of his brothers-in-circus:

 


Actually I think most everyone outside Argentina is expecting this to go badly, regardless of political affiliation. An odd spot where everyone can agree.

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3 hours ago, Josh said:


Russia has forgotten more about marine nuclear engineering than China has ever known.

That is overstatement. First, China got 50 years of own nuclear submarines experience (first nuclear sub launched in 1970). Second, when USSR collapsed, they got access to Soviet specialists and shipyards left in what became "Independent Ukraine" including full sets of documentation (not only for first Soviet nuclear aircraft carrier that was under construction in Nikolaev, but also above mentioned Sevmorput' that was produced in Kerch).

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Japanese media recently revealed the draft of Tokyo's public infrastructure expansion plan aimed at strengthening its defense capabilities.

The plan identifies 14 civilian airports and 24 ports for upgrades and utilization by the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) for training and emergencies. It is reported that the Japanese government has allocated funds for this plan in the budget for the fiscal year 2024. Civilian airports and ports were extensively used for the first time in the exercises of the JSDF held in 2023. Behind these actions is a profound consideration of Japan's attempts to comprehensively enhance its defense capabilities, which implies significant risks of war.

According to relevant laws in Japan, the JSDF can currently prioritize the use of airports, ports, roads, and other facilities only in emergencies. In principle, the JSDF should negotiate the use of these facilities with local governments and facility management authorities during peacetime. The National Security Strategy issued by the Japanese government in December 2022 proposes the need to improve public infrastructure such as airports and ports to strengthen domestic response capabilities in emergencies, signaling an expansion of the use of these facilities.

The Japanese government believes that during a crisis, military airports and ports are likely to be attacked and destroyed. However, civilian airports and ports are surrounded by civilians, and there is a higher risk of war escalation after they are attacked, which means adversaries would have more misgivings. Therefore, under the pretext of deploying troops and protecting civilians in times of conflict, Japan is pushing for public infrastructure expansion plan to beef up its defense capabilities by enhancing the capacity of civilian airports and ports, essentially turning them into "backup bases".

Around 70 percent of the 38 facilities in the draft are located in Okinawa Prefecture and the Kyushu region. Many ports of Hokkaido and Shikoku are also involved, including Kushiro Port and Takamatsu Port. This will make the connection between Japan's southwestern islands and the four major mainland islands closer, help the JSDF achieve rapid mobile deployment, and expand the depth of defense while strengthening the role of forward fortresses on the southwestern islands.

Furthermore, this plan will not only enable civilian airports and ports, which were originally unable to accommodate naval vessels and aircraft, to function as battlefield facilities, but also open the door for the wartime requisition of more civilian vessels and support aircraft operations. The advanced technology and equipment owned by Japanese civilian airports and ports can also be integrated into the joint operations system of the JSDF, significantly improving its mobility and deployment efficiency.

It needs to be pointed out that the public infrastructure buildup expansion plan not only meets the needs of the JSDF but also aims to serve joint operations with the US. The crucial region for Japan-US joint military operations is the first island chain, with the southwestern islands of Japan being of utmost importance. Most of US military actions in the Western Pacific region rely on the southwestern islands of Japan. In a Japan-US joint operational plan disclosed by Japanese sources, the US military needs to establish new military bases in the southwestern islands of Japan, which will be used together with existing bases for troops assembly and operations. If the public infrastructure expansion plan is successfully implemented, the US will be able to directly leverage Japan's civilian facilities to assemble forces more efficiently.

It is evident that Japan's promotion of public infrastructure expansion plan goes hand in hand with its attempt to fundamentally strengthen defense capabilities and reinforce the Japan-US alliance. With the continuous implementation of  its three security documents and the accelerated adoption of measures such as developing the capability to strike enemy bases and strengthening cyber and space warfare capabilities, Japan will increasingly undermine its pacifist Constitution, loosen military restrictions, and become more dangerous.

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/16274619.html

The PRC should stop threatening Taiwan. 

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The goal here is less about creating escalation problems for China and more about multiplying the targets the PRC would have to hit and/or straining their ISR resources needed to identify civilian bases being used for military operations, especially airfields. The USAF is practicing operations from austere locations with minimal supporting staff and equipment (“Agile Combat Employment”, or ACE). The goal is to disperse smaller packages of aircraft across a wider number of airstrips and move them between missions such that targeting them is difficult (or else force attacks on every possible civilian location that could be utilized preemptively). The USMC would do this to a larger degree with its STOVL aircraft. I imagine the self defense forces also are creating a dispersal plan as well.

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Right, more targets and more dispersion means higher the task to PLA forces in neutralizing assets that would work towards Taiwan's defense. All part of the equition that sums up as deterrance. The PRC's position on Taiwan rhetorically flips it around.

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2 hours ago, Josh said:

The USAF is practicing operations from austere locations with minimal supporting staff and equipment (“Agile Combat Employment”, or ACE). The goal is to disperse smaller packages of aircraft across a wider number of airstrips and move them between missions such that targeting them is difficult (or else force attacks on every possible civilian location that could be utilized preemptively). 

Sounds like missiles and drones are having an increasingly serious impact on USAF operating patterns and operational tempo, even in peacetime. 

 

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21 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Sounds like missiles and drones are having an increasingly serious impact on USAF operating patterns and operational tempo, even in peacetime. 

 

Ballistic missiles are the main concern.

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1 hour ago, txtree99 said:

Glenn verse.  That the USAF has been practicing agile deployments since before Ukraine war means nothing 

Fixed air bases being vulnerable to air strikes of various kinds is certainly nothing new. The ACE program has been in place for years and likely traces its lineage to the "Rapid Raptor" project. The chief vulnerability in the Pacific theater continues to be ballistic missiles, with some hypersonic booster/gliders thrown in now as well.

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1 hour ago, txtree99 said:

Glenn verse.  That the USAF has been practicing agile deployments since before Ukraine war means nothing 

Two things.  First, it's the Glennieverse, not the  Glenn verse.  Second, the fact that the USAF has been doing this since before the war is irrelevant to the fact that the missile-drone threat is getting worse and having a direct impact on doctrine.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Possible clearance of J-31 for export.  Interesting in that J-31 is also slated for the Chinese carriers, meaning that possibility production on J-31 is anticipated to meet domestic and foriegn needs simultaneously?

J-20 Fighter: "Banned" For Exports, China Could Sell Its ‘Next Best Thing’ Stealth J-31 Aircraft To PAF? (eurasiantimes.com)

 

Evidence of high level Sino-Russian cooperation on advanced military projects,

Report: China and Russia Test Quantum Communication Link (thequantuminsider.com)

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The adherents of nominal GDP numbers should rejoice - China's GDP in relation to the US one is declining (they should absolutely disregard that last few years  US had 5-10% inflation and China 1-2% and exchange rate went from 6.4 to 7.2):

 

Meanwhile in PPP :

 

 

Edited by Strannik
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US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that widespread corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?srnd=undefined

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