China's Peaceful Rise

[Josh]

Yes, that is true. US IVBMs are single warhead, and 50 silos are kept operational but empty as non deployed launchers under New START. 200 of the MM3s have been modified to use ex Peacekeeper mk21 RVs, and these are apparently a little hard to switch back. The other 200 still use w78s, and they can accommodate two more warheads with no modifications. The last three MM3 tests all used three inert RVs. So hypothetically 400 more warheads could be fitted and an additional 50 missiles and 150 warheads deployed in the empty silos.

Trident missiles are capable of carrying 8 warheads, but treaty limitations restrict the number to more like ~4. So that could be roughly doubled from 1000 to 2000.

Air delivered bombs are harder to count and qualify, but the active 250 AGM-86 could be supplemented by 250 more in storage.

[Strannik]

The feeling that you are the one living in the 3rd world

 

 

[Strannik]

Just parking

 

 

[urbanoid]

Ah, one of the cities in Poland paid to build a parking like that, with each month less and less people use it (no idea why, just saw the article).

This thing has potential, looks like Chynah too

 

[Rick]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Ah, one of the cities in Poland paid to build a parking like that, with each month less and less people use it (no idea why, just saw the article).

This thing has potential, looks like Chynah too

 

Is the guy in the striped suit a prisoner? 

[Perun]

China Says Building Fourth Aircraft Carrier

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/07/china-fourth-aircraft-carrier/

[futon]

By this point, I think Japan should try starting the design and procurement of a new carrier class. It should be assumed that after carrier 004, there will be 005 and possible even 006. So just the Izumo pair is too little. The modified Izumo-class ships will probably operate up to only 8 F-35Bs each while at sea. Something bigger but for only the purpose of contesting control of airspace over the sea or small islands. A proper super carrier class incorporates features for attacking ground targets. I think Japan just needs a bigger carrier for primarily air superiority. So 50,000 tons focused on air superiority should be enough that can measure up with a multi-mission super carrier. Japan already has planned to get 42 F-35Bs so the number of aircraft may be sufficient already. Maybe a carrier that can operate with 24 on the ship. Although, if a class of two ships, will need more. So maybe F-35Cs. Japan already operates E-2Ds from land basedms so should plug in fairly easily. Some degree of fast replenishment can be done by Japan's Ospreys.

[glenn239]

The issue is not the air wing, it's the inherent inability to defend carriers against hypersonic missiles, submarines and UUV 

[Perun]

Taiwan Military Mulls Buying Hundreds of Armed Sea Drones

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/12/taiwan-military-sea-drones/

[glenn239]

What's to mull?  They work great, and they'll also make excellent targets for the tens of thousands of Chinese invasion AI swarm drones.

[Perun]

Chinese H-6N bomber spotted equipped with the new YJ-21 airborne ballistic missile

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_march_2024_global_security_army_industry/chinese_h-6n_bomber_spotted_equipped_with_the_new_yj-21_airborne_ballistic_missile.html

[glenn239]

H-6 radius is 5,000km, plus 1,500km for this thing   That's getting close (but not quite) to Hawaii being in range.

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

H-6 radius is 5,000km, plus 1,500km for this thing   That's getting close (but not quite) to Hawaii being in range.

If you flew in a straight line at altitude, yes. Their subsonic cruise missiles have twice that range, though that still falls a little short without a refueling.

[glenn239]

Right.  Air to air refuelling is another factor, as well as possible friendly bases, as well as that the 5,000 or the 1,500, or both, may be understated.  

[Josh]

21 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Right.  Air to air refuelling is another factor, as well as possible friendly bases, as well as that the 5,000 or the 1,500, or both, may be understated.  

It is possible they could hit Hawaii with a refueling outside the first island chain, flying straight through a number ADIZ and ATC areas at altitude, yes. It is hard to imagine any friendly bases that could support H-6s along that route in the Pacific, friendly or otherwise.

it would probably be easier to load missiles or UAVs on a civilian ship and just try your luck in a one time strike. There would probably be some repercussions for PRC flagged merchant traffic anywhere near US bases.

Edited March 16, 2024 by Josh

[Perun]

China Will Be Ready To Invade Taiwan By 2027, U.S. Admiral Says

...

KEY FACTS
Aquilino, who testified to the GOP-led House Armed Services Committee, said “all indications point to” the People’s Liberation Army meeting Xi’s alleged goal of potentially invading Taiwan by 2027.

Since 2020, the PLA has added more than 400 fighter aircraft and 20 major warships while doubling its ballistics and cruise missiles, according to Aquilino, who said China had increased spending by 16% to more than $223 billion

China’s military has been simulating operations it would carry out against Taiwan in recent years, Aquilino said, including maritime and air blockades.

...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2024/03/20/china-will-be-ready-to-invade-taiwan-by-2027-us-admiral-says/?sh=13979d8512c4

Edited March 21, 2024 by Perun

[glenn239]

A poor video and article on Chinese cruise missile production.  The article claims that estimates of Chinese production capacity, assuming maximum priority on military mobilization, would allow for the manufacture of 1,000 cruise missiles per day.   

https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/america-has-no-ukraine-plan-b-except-more-war/

 

 

[Perun]

 

[Perun]

Historic LRASM Flight Test achieved by US Navy & Lockheed Martin

According to a PR published by Lockheed Martin on April 3, 2024, the U.S. Navy has successfully executed an unprecedented flight test involving the simultaneous launch of four Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASM).

The test, known as the 12th Integrated Test Event (ITE-12), showcased the formidable lethality and precision of LRASM from the initial mission planning stages through to the successful integration within the kill chain and the eventual devastating impact on the target. The flawless execution of all mission objectives during the test underscores the weapon's reliability and superior firepower, bolstering confidence in its operational readiness.

The LRASM plays a critical role in strategic deterrence by providing the U.S. Navy and Air Force with a stealthy, long-range strike capability against enemy warships. Its deployment is aimed at denying adversaries the ability to project naval power, especially in contested areas such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.

The strategic importance of the LRASM is also reflected in the context of lessons learned from recent conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. The conflict has underscored the value of having a robust, long-range strike capability to counter adversaries equipped with advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems.

Technical data

 The LRSAM boasts a mass of approximately 2,760 pounds (1,250 kilograms) and dimensions estimated at 14 feet (4.26 meters) in length, with a width of 25 inches (635 mm) and a height of 18 inches (450 mm). Its wingspan extends to 8 feet 10 inches (2.7 meters).

The warhead, a WDU-42/B high-explosive blast fragmentation penetrator, weighs in at 1,000 pounds (453.6 kg) and is set off by an FMU-156/B fuze. Propulsion is provided by a Williams F107-WR-105 turbofan engine, enabling an operational range of 200 nautical miles (370 km).

Its guidance system is notably advanced, utilizing GPS, INS, IIR (Electro-Optical), and AI for enhanced target detection capabilities through on-board sensors. Maneuverability is achieved through moving wings, two horizontal tailplanes, and one vertical stabilizer, ensuring an accuracy of 9 feet 10 inches (3 m) CEP.

The system can be launched from various platforms, including air launches from B-1 Lancer, F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, and integrating into F-35 Lightning II and P-8 Poseidon. Surface launch capabilities are being explored with systems such as the Mk 41 Vertical Launching System (VLS) and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2024/april/14211-historic-lrasm-flight-test-achieved-by-us-navy-lockheed-martin.html

[Josh]

Notably this test was of the AGM-158C-3, the LRASM-ER. It is supposed to have a range more or less of JASSM.

[Perun]

In Taiwan, commonly known as the Republic of China, eight F-16V fighter jets at the Hualien Air Base suffered significant damage due to a major earthquake. This disaster, which occurred around 8:00 am local time on Wednesday, rendered the aircraft unfit for service. 

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/04/05/m7-4-richter-quake-damages-republic-of-chinas-elite-f-16v-squadron/

[Tim the Tank Nut]

regarding Perun's post about the Chinese drone that flew over the Izumo; I'm sure the "citizen" in question had the purest of motives.  It couldn't possibly be a test run for information gathering purposes to verify the feasibility of a surprise attack.

[urbanoid]

On 4/4/2024 at 5:25 PM, Josh said:

Notably this test was of the AGM-158C-3, the LRASM-ER. It is supposed to have a range more or less of JASSM.

Based on JASSM-ER, but with a range of a basic JASSM.

[Roman Alymov]

"April 6, 2024,
Rail freight traffic through Russia increased by 44% in the first quarter of 2024

The trend was obvious a month ago, and, as experts say, several factors coincided here: an increase in trade between the West and China, as well as between China and Belarus, and Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea

Transit traffic from China to the EU through Russia increased by 44% in the first quarter of 2024, Vedomosti writes. Experts cite the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea as the reason, among other things — because of them, the capacity of the traditional sea corridor to China has decreased.

There is another factor: economists are talking about an increase in trade between the West and China. And foreign media wrote about the growing demand for overland transit a month ago. It is not yet possible to deliver goods overland bypassing Russia — there is no infrastructure for this. Therefore, Russian Railways services have become the optimal solution for Beijing. As noted in the state-owned company, it is more expensive, but three or even five times faster than by sea. Consumer goods are mainly transported from China to Europe — those that are not subject to Western sanctions.

Economist Sergey Khestanov tells more about trans-Russian transportation:

"Business processes tend to return to the state they were in before any circumstances directly or indirectly related to geopolitics took effect. The events in the Red Sea can probably be interpreted from the point of view of the well-known saying "there is no silver lining". For Russia, on the one hand, the increase in the flow of containers through Russian territory is a noticeable positive factor. On the other hand, the railways of the Russian Federation are currently operating with a very high load, since there has been a strong shift in the focus of Russian international trade from the western direction to the eastern. For Russian railways, this is a very serious challenge that will require, on the one hand, operational measures to increase the carrying capacity, on the other hand, it is an occasion to think about expanding the capacity of strategic railways."

According to Chinese colleagues, transit traffic to Europe increased by 20-30% compared to 2023. The numbers may differ from ours, but the trend is obvious. At the same time, the structure of reverse transit has recently changed: now Russia does not transport goods from the EU to China, but goods from Belarus and other friendly countries."  https://www.bfm.ru/news/547676

Edited April 6, 2024 by Roman Alymov

[Josh]

7 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Based on JASSM-ER, but with a range of a basic JASSM.

AGM-158C1 has a range of >200nm, which is about AGM-158A’s range, despite being based on the AGM-158B with a turbofan vice turbojet. AGM-158C3, or LRASM-ER, is supposed to restore JASSM-ER range.