Kiev Is Burning

[Roman Alymov]

By the way other thing pro-Russian community is outraged about recently is "mobilization adverts" created by unknown advertising agency (clearly Moscow liberals)

 

another reel https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12947

Oleg Tsarev summarising it (source https://t.me/olegtsarov/4466 )

Many are outraged that the videos (https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12947 ), motivating to enlist as volunteers for the war, are made with an emphasis on money. Only for money.

There is a projection rule in psychology. You try it on — you project the situation on yourself, you think how you would act in this situation. And you think that the one whose situation you have tried on yourself will do so. In fact, this is how the vast majority of people model the actions of others with some adjustments for individuality.

People who don't have beliefs can't come up with a video where they will volunteer to fight for beliefs. People for whom money is the main motivator believe that money is the main motivator for others as well. Therefore, the creators of the videos made them qualitatively — as for themselves. With a slight adjustment for individuality. The creators, or rather, the customers of the commercials for the amount they pay for the contract, would not get up from the chair.

Well, to finally put an end to conversations about money and beliefs, I will say that in politics and in power, beliefs cause negativity. I will say that when I was a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, I even had to disguise my beliefs as self-interest. I justify myself to the faction that I demand to remove the mandatory translation of feature films into Ukrainian, because I publicly promised this at the elections and otherwise they will not vote for me. Or I will not vote for the abolition of the unified agricultural tax, not because it is a foolishness of the government, but because I have a rural district and I cannot lose the support of agricultural producers.

By the way, among professional politicians, persuasion is an unacceptable luxury.

Beliefs do not paint not only the deputy. Imagine a political journalist or a political show host with convictions. Presented? No? Right. We have one agenda today, another tomorrow, and he's bulging and talking a blizzard about beliefs. He has an editorial assignment, and he has his own opinion. How can such a person be entrusted with the ether? This applies to The Washington Post, and the Ukrainian "1 + 1", and "Rain", and "Jellyfish" and not only. Or will the official carry out some leadership commands, and some will not, referring to beliefs? Beliefs are like a disease. A good professional, efficient. But with a wormhole — with beliefs. It is much better if the motivation of the performer is simple — career, salary, money.

Ideally, for them, it is necessary that the volunteers were for money. Paid — received. There will be fewer problems with such after the war. And then suddenly they will start demanding something later. And they can't take off about beliefs. According to Stanislavsky, it won't work. It's necessary to get used to the role there. Otherwise, "I don't believe it."

[Huba]

We discussed this some pages ago. I believe that they will use them mostly against fixed targets at FEBA, which will allow weapons to be pre-programmed on the ground, making the whole integration a lot easier. The physical connection between MiGs and bombs themselves was probably solved way back when they got HARMs. No details about how exactly they achieved that were made public I believe, but they are obviously using some kind of adapter. Poland developed something like this a long time ago, though it was never fielded. I'm sure US could easily come up with something like that too - if you skip the digital interface integration, the mechanical part shouldn't be that difficult I think.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Huba

[Roman Alymov]

12 minutes ago, kokovi said:

Which Ukrainian platform can actually use JDAMs? Ok, they seem to have managed to shoot HARMs but they still need an interface to the platform for targeting, the hardpoints and release locks must be compatible, they must ensure that the bomb separates cleanly from the aircraft and I guess they need access to P code GPS which needs controlled and heavily restricted US crypto stuff. Perhaps the US has modified JDAM kits for use with USSR style bombs? 

They do not need "an interface to the platform for targeting" -as targeting data are provided by US as ready coordinates (see example here https://telegra.ph/NATO-kor-12-20 ) and could be uploaded into the bomb before flight, and the flight route and release point could be uploaded into simple commercial aviation GPS (no need even to integrate it with plane systems). All what is needed is some trigger wire to activate the bomb onboard systems in proper time.

      Hardpoints and release locks are not so complex for the place - even in current bad shape Ukraine got spome former USSR aviation engeneers, and no doubt if there are problems with production in Ukraine - some small aviation industry workshop in West could handcradf it in weeks if not days. No problem at all. 

"Bomb separates cleanly from the aircraft" - who cares, it is proxy war and nobody cares how many UkrAF pilots will die in process  - yesterday two MiG-29 and one Su-25 were shot down by RusAF and AD in one day, plus one Mi-8, so one more, one less - who cares....

   No doubt this bombs will be put to use, may be not even from MiG-29 or Su-25 or Su-27 (if UkrAF still have them) but from planes like L-39. 

[seahawk]

16 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

They do not need "an interface to the platform for targeting" -as targeting data are provided by US as ready coordinates (see example here https://telegra.ph/NATO-kor-12-20 ) and could be uploaded into the bomb before flight, and the flight route and release point could be uploaded into simple commercial aviation GPS (no need even to integrate it with plane systems). All what is needed is some trigger wire to activate the bomb onboard systems in proper time.

      Hardpoints and release locks are not so complex for the place - even in current bad shape Ukraine got spome former USSR aviation engeneers, and no doubt if there are problems with production in Ukraine - some small aviation industry workshop in West could handcradf it in weeks if not days. No problem at all. 

"Bomb separates cleanly from the aircraft" - who cares, it is proxy war and nobody cares how many UkrAF pilots will die in process  - yesterday two MiG-29 and one Su-25 were shot down by RusAF and AD in one day, plus one Mi-8, so one more, one less - who cares....

   No doubt this bombs will be put to use, may be not even from MiG-29 or Su-25 or Su-27 (if UkrAF still have them) but from planes like L-39. 

There is no Ukrainian Air Force left. All air sorties are flown by NATO planes.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Yama said:

Story of North Korean ammo transfers might still be true even if they are never spotted on Ukrainian battlefields  It's possible they have bought batches of shells to keep war stocks at required level, so they can use up those on Ukraine.

20 years from now, Russian artillerymen taking part of Great Trans-Siberian War will be cursing the poor quality of old North Korean ammunition... 

This is my thinking as well - *IF* it did happen, then the rounds were stored as a hedge/contingency source of ammo to free up existing Russian ammo held for that purpose, and post conflict it will be disposed of (or at least stored separately as a further contigency) once Russia's own manufacturing creates an acceptable stock.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Josh

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

CNN confirms the story about JDAMs going to Ukraine, supposedly these will be part of next weapons package that is to be announced this week (tweet quotes the original source). I guess they have the technical and tactical aspects of using them already figured out, it's going to be very interesting to see - the potential is huge in my opinion.

 

I think they will have to be employed like HARM - some kind of manual data entry on the ground with a lob toss like deployment profile and all of the range limitations that incurs. But being able to accurate fling a one ton bomb is obviously going to have a lot of utility, even if it is only deployable against the front line.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, kokovi said:

Which Ukrainian platform can actually use JDAMs? Ok, they seem to have managed to shoot HARMs but they still need an interface to the platform for targeting, the hardpoints and release locks must be compatible, they must ensure that the bomb separates cleanly from the aircraft and I guess they need access to P code GPS which needs controlled and heavily restricted US crypto stuff. Perhaps the US has modified JDAM kits for use with USSR style bombs? 

 

 

 

 

 

Didn't the Soviet adopt a NATO compatible carrying lug pattern for their aircraft? I seem to remember reading that in the bad old days, with the goal being able to take over NATO ordnance stocks once airbases were overrun. Haven't heard of such a thing since the 80's so this might be urban legend.

As for the P code problem - perhaps there is a way to covert it to just civilian guidance? The US sells its JDAMs fairly far and wide; there must be a mechanism for preventing crypto navigation codes from being compromised. If nothing else, having a dud fall into enemy hands must not completely compromise the PNT or else such a prolific weapon would be unworkable. Target data would have to fed to the weapon on the ground with some kind of separate laptop/tablet; it is believed this is how HARM is programed. Ordnance separation issue probably comes down to just "fuck it, its a low drag bomb, hope for the best". Or perhaps the Red Eagles experimented with loading mk80 series ordnance.

ETA: as for activating the weapon, there was at least one video that seemed to indicate HARM was basically fired as though an AAM, that the system recognized it as an R-27 and just kicked off the igniter. At that point the missile has a GPS location and a terminal seeker and just makes its best attempt sans input from the plane.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. Buk (note only one missile of uncommon white collor). SAM was hidden near solar power station building, so in addition to AD asset probably energy source was also destroyed by secondary explosions

 

[Roman Alymov]

RusArmy helmet cam video with English subtitles, note half-seen inscription on BTR  - seems like "Stalin <is right>"

 

[Roman Alymov]

Longer and better version of tank vs. ATGM video

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

23 minutes ago, Josh said:

Didn't the Soviet adopt a NATO compatible carrying lug pattern for their aircraft? I seem to remember reading that in the bad old days, with the goal being able to take over NATO ordnance stocks once airbases were overrun. Haven't heard of such a thing since the 80's so this might be urban legend.

As for the P code problem - perhaps there is a way to covert it to just civilian guidance? The US sells its JDAMs fairly far and wide; there must be a mechanism for preventing crypto navigation codes from being compromised. If nothing else, having a dud fall into enemy hands must not completely compromise the PNT or else such a prolific weapon would be unworkable. Target data would have to fed to the weapon on the ground with some kind of separate laptop/tablet; it is believed this is how HARM is programed. Ordnance separation issue probably comes down to just "fuck it, its a low drag bomb, hope for the best". Or perhaps the Red Eagles experimented with loading mk80 series ordnance.

ETA: as for activating the weapon, there was at least one video that seemed to indicate HARM was basically fired as though an AAM, that the system recognized it as an R-27 and just kicked off the igniter. At that point the missile has a GPS location and a terminal seeker and just makes its best attempt sans input from the plane.

Pretty sure it's true, Yugoslavian Mig21s were apparently able to carry British BL755 bombs, seemingly without new pylons, and someone was able to hang Matra Magics on another. I've also read Migs were built to be compatible with NATO start carts, which must have made life for the Red Eagles easier.

So as far as NATO bombs, there shouldn't be a problem. If they can mod Fulcrums to carry HARM, I can't see JDAM as a problem. Might be easier integration in a two seater though, if they want to target on the fly.

[Roman Alymov]

Back to infantry war and individual training discussion: better version of older video of two attacks of pro-Ukrainians on pro-Russian positions. Note how small are both attacking and especially defending groups

 

[Roman Alymov]

Armed version of Forpost UAV vs pro-Ukr armored car

 

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. M777, Kherson region. Note some sort of vertical frames around the gun - to provide cover from ground-level observation or protect from drone attacks

https://t.me/milinfolive/94643

P.S On Youtube

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[Mike1158]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

The funny thing is that people read such pieces as a sign of Russian weakness, when they are a sign of strength. When the pro-Western cabal is swept from power, the war will continue and Russia will prevail.

Mr seahawk, Sir.

I really do not get it but are you drinking it by the pint or litre?  Not a chance in hell Russia will be allowed to destroy Ukraine.  Truth is, you will only 'Get' Ukraine if you do so and there will be nothing left worth having then.  With the situation created by Russia/Putin/the gang of however many supporters there are, Russia will be a lot better off and have more chance of keeping the far east of your country away from the PRC if you just drop the hysterics and go home.  I get that party poopers are unpopular but there is no legitimate reason for this horrible bloody genocidal war.

[bojan]

50 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Pretty sure it's true, Yugoslavian Mig21s were apparently able to carry British BL755 bombs.

BL755s made for Yugoslavia had both "western" and Soviet lugs. Same for a locally made ordnance, as well as ordnance  Soveit/US (and even WW2 German) ordnance overhauled locally.

But just hanging things on planes is trivial. Using them effectively from the planes requires at least some intervention on planes.

  

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Didn't the Soviet adopt a NATO compatible carrying lug pattern for their aircraft? 

No, different lug spacing.

Edited December 20, 2022 by bojan

[bojan]

30 minutes ago, Mike1158 said:

Mr seahawk, Sir.

He is mostly trolling*, just ignore it.

*Pity, since he can write good post on those rare occasions he bothers to.

Edited December 20, 2022 by bojan

[bojan]

42 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

...better version of older video of two attacks of pro-Ukrainians on pro-Russian positions...

 

Both sides on that video are... IDK how to describe it. Amount of very basic mistakes, that are drilled as "never should be done" in the training, even as faulty as one I had is staggering.

[JWB]

3 hours ago, bojan said:

You are pushing conspiracy theory..........

Cannot be a conspiracy because no laws have been broken.

[Roman Alymov]

Cammo tents on trucks - Western-provided?

 

[Huba]

Tomorrow Zelensky wiil address the Congress in person.

 

[Yama]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

CNN confirms the story about JDAMs going to Ukraine, supposedly these will be part of next weapons package that is to be announced this week (tweet quotes the original source). I guess they have the technical and tactical aspects of using them already figured out, it's going to be very interesting to see - the potential is huge in my opinion.

Counterpoint is that Russians have had similar type of weapon in use through entire war, and it doesn't seem to have had huge impact.

Though, it is probably still more useful for Ukrainians than their current methods of bombing.

In his new interview, 'Juice' promoted idea of attack helicopter deliveries for Ukraine. I think this might be a good idea. Much of the Ukraine is pretty well suited for long-range ATGM's, and Western helicopters have access to fire & forget missiles, which are much less risky to use.

[Detonable]

On 12/16/2022 at 5:22 PM, Sardaukar said:

Toss-bombing has been around for ages, I think it was first used by RAF vs. V-1 sites. Obviously ranges were different, but Clostermann in his book Big Show describes similar method.

It was also adopted by USAF for smaller nuke delivery to have plane escape the blast. 

  May have been used by F-111s in the strike in Libya during Reagan presidency.

[Huba]

I'll admit that I'm not that familiar with RU air-dropped PGMs. I'd think that they would have some GPS (well, GLONAS) guided bombs, but not nearly in the numbers that are at US disposal? Number of produced JDAM kits is reportedly north of 400K - the limiting factor in their employment by UA would probably be the rate at which they are able to drop them.

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

But being able to accurate fling a one ton bomb is obviously going to have a lot of utility, even if it is only deployable against the front line.

Probably not as impactful as HIMARs, but JDAMs should be right up there in the list of most dangerous systems sent to Ukraine, assuming the tactics can be utilized to get around Russian AD.