Kazakhstan

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, Daan said:

Don't buy it:

 

That was allready addressed by Rus social nertworks

Text: 

Important announcement for citizens of Ukraine!

Due to current events, the schedule of daily invasions to Ukraine is changed.  We kindly ask for your understanding of that. After situation stabilized, we will be back to old schedule of invasions. Thank you.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[KV7]

34 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Opinion from Russian social networks that may explain quick win of protestors in main cities: “I don't have any special information on the events in Kazakhstan, so I won't pretend to be an expert. There is only one observation. As you know, the main driving force of any batch is militants. And the breeding ground of any protest is the wonderful people of the capitals, who are for all the good and against all the bad. They create numbers on the streets with pots on their heads, as well as an ideal picture for the media supporting such protests. On their backs, the militants pass to power, and then a small part of them sticks to a new feeder, and the main part is simply thrown out as unnecessary and then groans in the kitchens - did I give it to that? Sorry - what were you fighting for?! But without them, naive and beautiful, the seizure of power by militants would look intimidating and completely inappropriate for showing a beautiful picture of the struggle for freedom.

So, judging by how quickly the Kazakh authorities completely surrendered Moscow, ugh - Alma-Ata and Tselinograd without a fight, and then just as abruptly started the power option, a kind of Kutuzov cunning Asian tactics looms. Surrender the city to win. Beautiful metropolitan residents who, for all the good things, were left alone for one night with a frenzied pack that came not to fight for freedom, but to tear and burn. And the beautiful ones sobered up instantly, howling - who did you leave us for? Thus, the wolves were torn out of the mouth of the nutrient medium, showing the bunnies who would actually come if everything went too far. And when the security forces will not put the wolves with sticks, but with bullets, the bunnies will no longer shout about the cruelty of the wolfhounds, but applaud and demand more blood.

I repeat, this is not even a version, but an impression. If that's the case, then there's a hell of a smart-ass mind behind it. I wonder whose.” (Yandex-translated)

There is a (IMO somewhat far fetched) theory that something like this was involved in the capitol hill riots - security was limited because they wanted to have a scene to discredit their opponents.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

[Josh]

Roman's meaning was clear to me. I don't think the CIA could dream of sparking what was a quiet country into the mess Kstan appears to be in. NYT is reporting police have 'evaporated' from the cities. Given bojan's description, I assume the main gripe is poverty in the lower segments in society.

Random question, is it a particularly hard winter or was any other external stress put on the economy before the fuel subsidy cut? What motivated the sudden cut?

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

From what I'm seeing if what's going on there, it s going to take more than a few units of VDV and Special Forces to put a lid on it. Besides, would you want to kick off a major war in Ukraine, whilst Kazakhstan is unresolved? 

Of couse, he is crazy, so there is that...

I can't imagine Kstan has a shortage of its own troops. They don't need to be especially well armed, organized, or motivated to shoot at lightly armed civilians. Deploying the VDV en mass to me would indicate a lack of faith in army units remaining loyal, otherwise it would be like sending Delta Force to engage the Peace Corps. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well it's interesting to look over the old Soviet installations, there was a VDV and Special Forces facility that seems to have survived intact. Many of their military installations look well cared for and maintained, clearly a higher standard than Russian facilities are maintained. On the other hand, spending a lot of money on your Army doesn't mean they are going to shoot their countrymen. And as we saw with the saudis, if you need to do that, it can be a popular option to get foreigners in to do it for you. I suspect that's what Yanuckovich did.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Roman's meaning was clear to me. I don't think the CIA could dream of sparking what was a quiet country into the mess Kstan appears to be in. NYT is reporting police have 'evaporated' from the cities. Given bojan's description, I assume the main gripe is poverty in the lower segments in society.

Random question, is it a particularly hard winter or was any other external stress put on the economy before the fuel subsidy cut? What motivated the sudden cut?

This question is widely discussed in Rus internet, some even believe it was President Tankayev's provocation to remove "father of the nation" Nazarbayev from power completely. There is no particularly hard winter in KZ now (at least nothing special for this region of heavily continental climate with very cold windy winters and very hot windy summers).

Let me self-quote from another thread (https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38893-kiev-is-burning/&do=findComment&comment=1566026 )

“But riots themselves were definitely triggered by stupid actions of KZ Gov themselves – for some reason they have introduced free prices for LNG, main fuel in KZ –doubling its price. Why they need that when energy prices on its peak and oil&gas <revenues> flooding their budget – no idea. As results, they got combination of Yellow Wests and Islamic revolution (median age in KZ is only 29 years)”

Seems like pro-Western liberal economists in their Gov (very similar to Russian ones) failed to understand that free market is not always good….

[Roman Alymov]

P.S. Now KZ Gov in coverup mode

TASS: "There are signs of price collusion in the actions of the largest sellers of liquefied gas, the Department for the Protection and Development of Competition of Kazakhstan reported." (c)
Look at it! Only yesterday, the same Kassym-Jomart Tokayev swore that the jump in gas prices was the result of the transition from January 1, 2022 to a fully market-based formation of prices for liquefied gas through electronic trading platforms and exchanges.
In general, it's good that we figured it out so quickly. And then some might have thought that everything went crazy because of the failures of the leadership of Kazakhstan. And it turns out that the management  is well done, and the "largest sellers" have screwed up. Well okay...."   https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2990953167832800&id=100007544386931

Edited January 6, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[alejandro_]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Well that would be rather dramatic. If that were true, that seems to imply Nazarbayev has a lack of faith in Tokaye...or else a conflict with him.

Maybe he just lost power to Tokayev and simply wants to feel safe. I don't blame him, with all those millions I would rather be in a nice dacha in Crimea rather than ending up like Mubarat or even Gaddafi.

[alejandro_]

Double message, edited.

Edited January 6, 2022 by alejandro_

[Simon Tan]

Kitai will bankroll the changes. 

[KV7]

7 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

This question is widely discussed in Rus internet, some even believe it was President Tankayev's provocation to remove "father of the nation" Nazarbayev from power completely. There is no particularly hard winter in KZ now (at least nothing special for this region of heavily continental climate with very cold windy winters and very hot windy summers).

Let me self-quote from another thread (https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38893-kiev-is-burning/&do=findComment&comment=1566026 )

“But riots themselves were definitely triggered by stupid actions of KZ Gov themselves – for some reason they have introduced free prices for LNG, main fuel in KZ –doubling its price. Why they need that when energy prices on its peak and oil&gas <revenues> flooding their budget – no idea. As results, they got combination of Yellow Wests and Islamic revolution (median age in KZ is only 29 years)”

Seems like pro-Western liberal economists in their Gov (very similar to Russian ones) failed to understand that free market is not always good….

Uncritically listening to liberal economists is a recurring problem. It accelerated the demise of the USSR and came close in China, with Tiananmen to some large extent caused by anger at inflation caused by rash market reforms, and corruption caused by new opportunities for arbitrage profits. In the case of China they made another mistake in responding to price rises with a generally contractionary policy which caused slow growth for a few years.

On the issue of subsidies for basic goods there is a decent economic case for them (if moderate) because they are inequality reducing, but unlike the progressive tax based on income they take into account the household needs, i.e. those with greater basic needs receive a larger subsidy. And in the textbook case it may be possible to increase efficiency and equality by cutting subsidies and replacing them with services or money transfers, but usually these compensations are not bundled with such a subsidy cut. If the fuel subsidy was replaced with a cash fuel stipend, then that may have alleviated the anger.

Regarding the political-economy, there seems to be a recurring case where people really want to see that they benefit directly from some local natural resource - if their country has energy resources they want cheap fuel, if they have renowned pastures they want cheap beef etc. Even where the raw economic case may favor cutting subsidies or allowing greater exports, pursuing such policies may not be a very good use of politcal capital.

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

Roman's meaning was clear to me. I don't think the CIA could dream of sparking what was a quiet country into the mess Kstan appears to be in. NYT is reporting police have 'evaporated' from the cities. Given bojan's description, I assume the main gripe is poverty in the lower segments in society.

Random question, is it a particularly hard winter or was any other external stress put on the economy before the fuel subsidy cut? What motivated the sudden cut?

If that is what he was saying, then im happy to agree with him. The CIA just isnt up to doing things like this, and never has been.

OTOH, that is distinctly contrary to what the Kremlin is saying, that its purely down to foreign influence campaigns.

[Roman Alymov]

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation:
"In accordance with the decision of the CSTO Collective Security Council, Collective peacekeeping forces have been sent to the Republic of Kazakhstan for a limited period.
An air group of more than 70 IL-76 and 5 AN-124 aircraft created by the Russian Defense Ministry is transferring units of the Russian contingent of the CSTO peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan around the clock.
Russian military transport aircraft are also involved in the operational transfer of military contingents of Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
The Russian peacekeeping forces include units of the 45th Separate Airborne Special Forces Brigade, the 98th Airborne Airborne Division, and the 31st Separate Airborne Brigade.
All servicemen of the Russian contingent have received special training and have real combat experience.
Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, Commander of the Airborne Troops, has been appointed to lead the actions of the CSTO peacekeeping forces in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The Russian servicemen who arrived in the Republic of Kazakhstan immediately began to carry out their tasks.
To date, together with the law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty Airport has been taken under full control.
The security of the Consulate General of the Russian Federation located in the city and other important facilities is ensured.
The CSTO peacekeepers assist the law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan in maintaining law and order." (c)

Chkalovsky AB

 

Ivanovo

 

Arrival

 

[Roman Alymov]

Yandex-translation from Контингент российских войск миротворческих сил ОДКБ в Казахстане (livejournal.com)

The Zvezda TV channel announced the arrival of the Russian peacekeeping forces in Kazakhstan.

"The first units from the main forces of the Russian contingent of the CSTO peacekeeping forces have been delivered to the territory of Kazakhstan. At the moment, the transfer of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation with regular equipment continues. Units of the 45th separate special purpose brigade of the Airborne Forces marched to the Chkalovsky loading airfield, [331st Parachute Regiment] Ivanovo formation [98th Airborne Division] Airborne forces - to the Ivanovo-Severny airfield, Ulyanovsk compound [31st Airborne Assault Brigade] Airborne forces - to the Ulyanovsk-Vostochny airfield, where loading is carried out on military transport aircraft, from the point of permanent deployment. The Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO from Russia included units and military units of Airborne troops. The organization called the main tasks of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces in Kazakhstan the protection of important state and military facilities, assistance to law enforcement officers of the country and stabilization of the situation in the state. The forces included units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, Belarus, Armenia, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic.

In addition to the above-mentioned units, on the video footage of the reports of the Zvezda shopping Center, you can see the equipment of the 3rd special purpose brigade and the 15th peacekeeping motorized rifle brigade.

 

[Simon Tan]

The problem as always is the ineffcient distribution of wealth. The very rich dont need the money they agglomerate. To be rich, and enjoy its trappings you must take out of the economic system. Reinvestment does not make your wife, mistress or boyfreind happy, nor impress your entourage.

[KV7]

14 minutes ago, Simon Tan said:

The problem as always is the ineffcient distribution of wealth. The very rich dont need the money they agglomerate. To be rich, and enjoy its trappings you must take out of the economic system. Reinvestment does not make your wife, mistress or boyfreind happy, nor impress your entourage.

This is usually true but Kazakhstan actually has by world standards exceptionally low income inequality, on par with Finland and Norway.

[Roman Alymov]

From RAND Corporation paper -2019

I think it is high time to have "Moldova" thread ready.....

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, KV7 said:

This is usually true but Kazakhstan actually has by world standards exceptionally low income inequality, on par with Finland and Norway.

I'm affraid it indicates how misleading standard metrics could be when applied to countries so different in history, geography, population and many oyjer aspects.

[Roman Alymov]

Another opinion from Russian facebook (Yandex-translated from https://www.facebook.com/KurakinAleksey/posts/2730900627206123 )

This is not a revolution. This is some kind of shame...

However, it smells of the Western "factory of democracy". Something there is thoroughly rotten.

It would seem that the "Washington Regional Committee" and the "Brussels Central Committee" have been cultivating various organizations, party structures, societies, foundations and other interest groups in Kazakhstan for years, designed to educate a new generation of people with "bright faces", inspire people with a passionate desire to "live like in Norway and Sweden", instill "values" and cultivate hatred for the "occupier" and the culprit of all troubles - Russia.

With hatred it turned out. Wild cave nationalists of the local spill with pleasure, under the video, nightmares of Russian-speaking businessmen, with choral singing switched to the Latin alphabet and in ecstasy retold to each other the results of the research of local "independent historians" - about the discovery of fire, wheels, agriculture and America by the Kazakhs.

Everything else came out somehow. For obvious reasons. Firstly (as evidenced by the experience of the preparation of the Afghan army by the Americans), the money was elegantly stolen at the planning stage of financing. And, secondly… Old, experienced specialists in "color revolutions" in the West were driven "under the fence" - because of the white skin color, aversion to same-sex love, upholding the right to exist of their gender and unwillingness to share the views of radical feminists. And a new wave of creators of happiness in overseas territories turned out to be alternatively mentally gifted, evenly represented by non-traditional personalities of all stripes - with intellectual disabilities.

And they did not read Comrade Ulyanov (Lenin). But because he doesn't have his own TikTok! But Vladimir Ilyich taught back in 1905 (in an article for the newspaper "Forward"): "... A revolution cannot be appointed! The revolution must be organized! …"

That is, first - work in the masses. Then the review of the "revolutionary forces" - rallies, strikes, protests. Choral singing and rhythmic choral bouncing on the peaceful Maidan, with energetic and stupefying chants - to unite the masses around a common idea. And the masses want to eat and send natural necessities. Logistics is needed. The nomination of "people's" leaders who know how to lead the people into a bright future and how to breathe freely in the new (Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan) future. Formation of uniform requirements for "totalitarian power". And then, after the revolutionary looting and looting, snipers of the "criminal regime" should appear...

But the gentlemen were in a terrible hurry. Wanting to organize another anti-Russia exhibition right in time for the next round of negotiations between Russia and the United States. Therefore, the "revolution" was appointed. Therefore, the Kazakh "activists" immediately moved on to the arson of administrative buildings, hacking of ATMs, the looting of shops, street crime and violence. At the same time, there were so many stupid militants that the organizers could not satisfy the shortage of firearms in any way - regularly delivered trunks were instantly snapped up by the "revolutionaries" like hot cakes. Moreover, the desire to live "like in Europe" turned out to be so strong and irresistible that the victims of the "activists" immediately went to dozens. And the "light-faced" disappeared somewhere. Personally, I saw one (probably an excellent student of some circle of Soros youth) - who, with his enthusiastically marauding comrades in the revolutionary struggle in the background, tried to convince Western journalists with a pathetic, by no means Shakespearean vocabulary that mass riots were a provocation.

So it turned out that now the symbol of all the "color revolutions" will remain for a long time an unencumbered "activist" who is trying to spoil the "legacy of the hated regime" with a gas burner - a traffic light.

Two (on a twelve-point scale) to you, gentlemen, organizers of the Kazakh Maidan! You yourself legitimized retaliatory violence with your stupid leadership by stupid "revolutionaries" (crossed out) restoration of constitutional order.

I hope it will happen quickly and efficiently.

Now all you have to do is howl loudly from every iron about the strangulation of democracy and demand sanctions against the CSTO countries that sent their security forces to Kazakhstan.

And it remains for us to wish you… Read the classics! Because when this "democracy" of yours returns to your own countries like a boomerang, it will stand across your throat.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

"Experts say that the gas riot in Kazakhstan is a reckoning for the status of a raw colony. If we take the total volumes, then 75% of Kazakhstan's oil production market is in the hands of foreign companies.

For example, at the Tengiz field in the Caspian Sea, the national operator KazMunayGas has 20%, Chevron and ExxonMobil, the joint venture LukArko (USA) has 80%.

At the Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea, KazMunayGas has 16.88%, Eni (Italy) - 16.81%, ExxonMobil (USA) - 16.81%, Shell (UK) - 16.81%, Total (France) - 16.81%, CNPC (China) - 8.33%, Inpex (Japan) - 7.56%.

At the Karachaganak field in the West Kazakhstan region, KazMunayGas has only 10%, Eni (Italy) - 29.25%, Shell (UK) - 29.25%, Chevron (USA) - 18%.

The terms of contracts for Kazakhstanis were bonded. Western companies did not pay natural rent and left a scorched desert, some deposits in 2030 will come to their exhaustion.

Accordingly, the demands of Kazakhstanis were reduced to the nationalization of the extractive industry. But the ruling elite in Nur-Sultan continued to serve the interests of American and European companies, not forgetting about their personal ones.

And we were wondering where the Nazarbayev family got palaces all over the world..."

 

[Perun]

38 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

From RAND Corporation paper -2019

I think it is high time to have "Moldova" thread ready.....

Do you have link for that RAND document

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, Perun said:

Do you have link for that RAND document

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/19092 

I have this paper downloaded on my computer, but it is too big to attach here

[Roman Alymov]

Video from one of KZ Border Guard Academy kadets preparing to face insurgents. His words are "It's f..n mess here. We will all die here. Mom and dad, i love you"

The Academy director was reportedly killed in fighting

 

[Perun]

58 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/19092 

I have this paper downloaded on my computer, but it is too big to attach here

Thanks mate, i found it under RAND RR3063

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html