Kazakhstan

[Roman Alymov]

8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Neither. I'm saying Roman has no grounds to condemn the Oligarchs or Western bankers, when they are just one more page in a history of Russian Kleptocracy that started in 1917. Before that if we accept corruption was introduced as a feature of Government by the Romanovs.

I'm not judging I might add, my own country features enough corruption to be ashamed of. I'm just not seeing anything about the 1990s that was exceptional. It was just more open than is usually he case in Russian or Soviet history.

I think the graph below will tell you, as expert on Russian affairs, why Russians feel so uneasy about oligarchs and their western supporters

https://www.livekavkaz.ru/uploads/posts/2020-08/1596720601-2png.png

But since few millions of dead Russians are not considered by you, as westerner, to be justification for Russians do feel uneasy about “western values”   - let me remind you how some of your own citizens feel about one of your former leaders, despite devastation created by his (her) rule were incomparable to  what was late 1980^th-1990^th for Russia and most of former USSR  (and still is, as we still deal with consequences)

 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Roman Alymov

[Roman Alymov]

Belorussians arrival

 

[Roman Alymov]

Shiny new Ил-76МД-90А RF-78661   (first flight June, 2021)   among planes used to transfer troops to KZ (one of three planes of this type used in this operation)

 

[Ssnake]

15 hours ago, Perun said:

Mates, are you trying to say that it is better that factory is owned by one rich man then by the state? 

Assuming that you meant to write "than" (as in a comparison) rather then implying a sequence of events...

On average, the balance is in favor of private ownership, yes. At least, if the director of the factory is also its owner, he usually has a vested long-term interest in it remaining profitable, and valuable. A state bureaucrat is primarily interested in advancing his career by meeting certain target quotas which may or may not involve maintaining the overall capital bound in the factory's infrastructure. He also may or may not be rewarded for process or product innovation, he may or may not be rewarded for growing the production output or shifting the product portfolio in pursuit of new or more profitable customers. It totally depends on the incentives set by the bureaucracy, and usually people are rather shitty when it comes to defining highly functional incentives.

 

There's this handy rule of thumb; ...in decending order of resposible behavior,

- people spending own money for themselves

- people spending own money for others

- people spending other people's money for themselves

- people spending other people's money for other people

 

A state-operated factory typically falls into category 4, while a privately owned factory ususally is a "case 1". Now, whether the factory owner acts responsibly towards his staff depends, again, on the economic and legal framework. In a free market economy where the workers can choose whom to work for, the factory owner must negotiate a wage level with the workers that keeps the factory profitable. But if he can't pay a competitive wage, the workers will look for employment elsewhere. Barring special conditions an equilibrium wage level will be achieved that matches the workers' needs/expectations. If the wage level is high the factory better produces goods with a high profit margin, and establishes highly productive processes.

If the state abolishes the workers' ability to freely negotiate their prices, state bureacrats effectively puts their thumbs on the scale. They might enforce high wages while neglecting to incentivize the state-appointed factory manager to find new markets or to innovate production processes. If the state assigns workers to factories (and thus takes away the workers' liberty to seek a different employer), well, you effectively establish (soft) slavery.

 

That's not to say that well-run factories can't exist in socialism. But typically that's the exception, not the norm. Likewise, incompetent capitalists exist too. But they lose their money fast and then exit the market, while more competent people take over their factories.

 

I prefer a system that systematically increases the chances of competent people running factories than one where incompetence may go unnoticed, or unpunished.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I think the graph below will tell you, as expert on Russian affairs, why Russians feel so uneasy about oligarchs and their western supporters

https://www.livekavkaz.ru/uploads/posts/2020-08/1596720601-2png.png

But since few millions of dead Russians are not considered by you, as westerner, to be justification for Russians do feel uneasy about “western values”   - let me remind you how some of your own citizens feel about one of your former leaders, despite devastation created by his (her) rule were incomparable to  what was late 1980^th-1990^th for Russia and most of former USSR  (and still is, as we still deal with consequences)

 

 

I could tell you what I think about Thatcher, but it would require about 12 pages, and I dont think you would read it all. OTOH, its fairly clear, right now, there is no future for coal. Those people wouldnt be out of jobs, but their grandchildren would. Ironically many of those Conservatives are backtracking on coal and trying to face down the Government to make coal extraction possible to sell to China. But Its not going anywhere, its a dead industry.

Here is the problem. You are mistaking socialism in the UK, which only really existed for 35 years, and Socialism in the USSR which existed for 70 odd years. You are mistaking a country that had never lost its entrepreneurs, and a country that had shot them all, or at best locked them up. You are also mistaking a country that respected property rights and hence had a secure banking industry, and a country that never really didnt and does not. You are also comparing a country that is celebrating the death of an unpopular leader, and a country that still has a mind to lock people up, or at least remove their job, for saying bad things about Stalin (The Death of Stalin didnt get much of a theatrical run I noted with amusement).

Yes, there are similarities, there are also great differences, and it would be foolish to not take note of that.

Bill Bryson once said that in the 1970's, there wasnt much difference in a material state at least, living in the UK and the Eastern Bloc. If you watch the movie 'Get Carter' (the original michael Caine version that is) you would probably agree. In fact in the original BBC TV series of 'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy', Glasgow doubled for a city in Communist Czechoslovakia, which probably tells you something.OTOH, there is a difference in what followed. Simply because there were people capable of moving the economy in different directions, and in the former USSR, there was just former Bureaucrats whom did what they always did in difficult times, siphon off.

So once again, you are saying Russia is just like the west, and if anything it demonstrates how little you really know about Britain. We have great challenges, most of which are not being met its true. OTOH, we can still protest against the Prime Minister without being locked up, and we can all start a new business without fear of getting a shakedown from the security services. On balance we are still ahead on points.

Russia had a bad couple of wars, no doubt about it. OTOH, Britain lost 1.6 million in WW1, and you could arguably say the country never recovered. It would also be the easiest thing in the world to lament Germans buggered up our preeminent position in the world, so we went from world number one, to at best the 6th largest economy in the world. OTOH, just like in your own country, it also involved a certain amount of incompetence of senior leadership.

I guess the point is, when are you going to stop looking to the past for excuses, and start looking to the future for opportunities? The same should be said of my own country of course...

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

9 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So once again, you are saying Russia is just like the west

Am i? I do not remember saying something like this. Yes there are some similarities that might help you to understand events here, but also significant differences.

9 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I guess the point is, when are you going to stop looking to the past for excuses, and start looking to the future for opportunities? 

As far as I remember, you have repeatedly described Russia as “kleptocracy”. But when I tell you people do not like both this kleptocrats and their Western partners who not only made their activity possible, but did it with great profit for themselves – you immediately advise me  “to stop looking to the past for excuses, and start looking to the future for opportunities” (and the practical meaning of it is leave this stolen assets to their current owners).

[TrustMe]

Going off topic, but Thatcher went so right wing that her later policies such as the "Lock up all AIDS victims into concentration camps" idea were borderline fascism. So much so that her own party got rid of her.

As for miners it's all ancient history now.

[KV7]

This is a bit speculative, but interesting.

Karim Massimov, until recently a security chief and previously a PM (twice) has been arrested for treason. He seems to be a friend of the Bidens.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1479927694674612230.html

Edited January 9, 2022 by KV7

[ex2cav]

11 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Going off topic, but Thatcher went so right wing that her later policies such as the "Lock up all AIDS victims into concentration camps" idea were borderline fascism. So much so that her own party got rid of her.

As for miners it's all ancient history now.

HAHAHA, she was just ahead of her time with this Covid stuff....lol

[Roman Alymov]

[glenn239]

Chinese policy on Kazakhstan solidifying; China unsurprisingly stands ready to send troops under the guise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation if necessary;

Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ‘ready to act in Kazakhstan if needed’ | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

 

 

[TrustMe]

China hasn't fought a war since the invasion of Vietnam in 1979 it will be interesting what will happen.

[glenn239]

40 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

China hasn't fought a war since the invasion of Vietnam in 1979 it will be interesting what will happen.

Looks to me that the insurgency is already pretty much defeated, so my guess is that the Chinese policy statement is a signal to someone else than Kazakhstan.

[seahawk]

China is very effective in dealing with criminal gangs. Let them clean this mess up.

[Roman Alymov]

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/turkey-caught-guard-kazakhstan-russia-emerges-top

Turkey caught off guard in Kazakhstan as Russia emerges on top
Ankara has offered "all kinds of support" to help restore order after the central Asian nation was rocked by violent protests.

[Roman Alymov]

From a recent televised address by Tokayev.

1. The events in Kazakhstan were declared an attempted coup d'etat, which failed. During the coup attempt, the authorities almost completely lost control of Alma-Ata, which could lead to the loss of control over Kazakhstan.
2. Since the situation is rapidly stabilizing, the withdrawal of the ODKB troops, which helped stabilize the situation, may begin on January 13. The withdrawal of troops will take 10 days. The acute phase of counter-terorist operation in Kazakhstan is over.
3. A new Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Alikhan Smailov, has been appointed. He has been Acting Prime Minister of Kazakhstan since January 5, when the old government was dismissed.
4. Kazakhstan will strengthen the National Guard quantitatively and qualitatively in order to have more opportunities to counter threats to the national security.safety. Tokayev noted that during the events, the State Security and the Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan, as well as the special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, showed themselves well. Additional measures will be taken to strengthen the Army of Kazakhstan and the border service.
5. Tokayev accused the KNB (local version of  ANB/KGB) of Kazakhstan that he could not or did not want to identify a threat that was being prepared in secret by professionals inside Kazakhstan. In a number of cities of the country, the leaders of the KNB actually handed over buildings, weapons and documents to the conspirators. Kazakhstan's state security system will undergo structural reorganization. The main culprits will be court-martialed.
6. Tokayev directly accused Nazarbayev's entourage that a group of super-rich people had formed around Elbasy, even by international standards. Tokayev believes that they should "pay tribute to the people of Kazakhstan."
7. A number of banks and funds will be tested, and the money will go to the announced socio-economic reforms. It is recognized that financial and oligarchic groups have become the beneficiaries of Kazakhstan's economic growth.
8. The events in Kazakhstan, according to Tokayev, were the result of socio-economic problems and the failed activities of some state bodies. These bodies broke away from the reality and needs of citizens and caused the growth of property stratification.
9. Tokayev canceled the recycling fee in the country, which was also one of the economic demands of the protesters. A 5-year moratorium on raising salaries of civil servants has been announced.
10. In addition, Tokayev directly accused the heads of state bodies that they are not able, and sometimes just afraid to communicate with the Kazakh people.
11. The opening of branches of advanced technical universities of Russia in Kazakhstan has been announced.
12. The "against all" column will be returned to the ballot papers.
13. It was instructed to restore order on the border with China, where "a mess is going on." The discrepancies between the customs statistics of Kazakhstan and China amount to billions of dollars. Some of the vans are simply not inspected.

De facto we have.
The KNB and the oligarchs from Nazarbayev's entourage were indirectly blamed for the coup. Nazarbayev was indirectly accused of conniving with his entourage, who plundered the country and profited from it, while the property stratification grew and socio-economic problems worsened, which the conspirators took advantage of to carry out an attempted coup, which was condoned by the KNB. As a result, the coup failed, the perpetrators will be punished, the KNB will be purged and restructured, the oligarchs will be forced to pay "compensation", the CSTO troops will be withdrawn soon, and the country is waiting for socio-economic reforms. A significant part of the economic demands of the protesters will be fulfilled. The question of Nazarbayev's future is still left in limbo.

source Вывод войск ОДКБ из Казахстана начнется 13 января (livejournal.com)

[Rick]

On 1/9/2022 at 12:50 PM, TrustMe said:

Going off topic, but Thatcher went so right wing that her later policies such as the "Lock up all AIDS victims into concentration camps" idea were borderline fascism. So much so that her own party got rid of her.

As for miners it's all ancient history now.

From what I'm hearing, sounds like Australia about now with the  Chinese virus replacing the sin virus. 

[Roman Alymov]

On 1/9/2022 at 4:37 AM, Ssnake said:

That's not to say that well-run factories can't exist in socialism. But typically that's the exception, not the norm. Likewise, incompetent capitalists exist too. But they lose their money fast and then exit the market, while more competent people take over their factories.

We here in Russia were told this numerous times over last 30 or even 35 years (since it started well back in USSR years). But realities are diffeernt - it turned out that the most effective way to "run the factory" is to buy it for few coins from corrupt officials (for kickback, of course) and then cit it into scrap metal - than run away with this money to London. 

[Roman Alymov]

On 1/9/2022 at 8:50 PM, TrustMe said:

As for miners it's all ancient history now.

Not so ancient for people who lost their entire lives as result. And it is just mining village in my reel - now imagine having the same in the size of country of 200+ mln actoss many timezones from Baltic to Pacific and from Norway to Afganistan..

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

We here in Russia were told this numerous times over last 30 or even 35 years (since it started well back in USSR years). But realities are diffeernt - it turned out that the most effective way to "run the factory" is to buy it for few coins from corrupt officials (for kickback, of course) and then cit it into scrap metal - than run away with this money to London. 

In all fairness, the factories in the late USSR period were not turning out in most cases viable products.

Sounds like heads are going to roll in the Kazakhstan coup.  Along with the failed coup attempt against Erdogan, lately these things seem to have fizzled.  Pity in 2012 the Russians didn't do in Syria what they did in Kazakhstan.  It might have saved Syria a horrific civil war.

[KV7]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

In all fairness, the factories in the late USSR period were not turning out in most cases viable products.

Sounds like heads are going to roll in the Kazakhstan coup.  Along with the failed coup attempt against Erdogan, lately these things seem to have fizzled.  Pity in 2012 the Russians didn't do in Syria what they did in Kazakhstan.  It might have saved Syria a horrific civil war.

The fact that it has taken so long for there to be a push back shows how on the back foot Russia has been. The case of Libya is even more humiliating, where Russia could not even bring itself to veto resolution 1973.

[Simon Tan]

It has to do with an Oligarch class that benefits from a poorly administered country. Something the US is now working towards. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Once again, America is slow on the uptake. Britain got there decades ago. 😁

 

[KV7]

The U.S. arguably was a pioneer, with a political system deliberately broken as a 'safeguard' against 'tyranny' and public services often deliberately bad or non-existent so as to ensure that by comparison the private offering looks good or is the only option.

Luckily for them they started with excellent conditions for economic growth - no feudal class, extensive arable land and raw materials, a lack of rival powers on the continent, a huge politically unified territory, ample good ports etc. and at critical junctures some push back to the above - notably int he case of opposition to southern economic obstructionism (opposition to infrastructure expenditures and tariffs, support for slavery etc.) and then during the New Deal period responding adequately to the great depression, WW2, and then the Cold War challenge (where notable there was little obstruction to the huge expansion in higher education and female employment).

[Mistral]

Bring back Ostracism, if nothing else it will be fun to watch the weasels trying to game the system against rival weasels!