Kiev Is Burning

[Detonable]

On 12/19/2022 at 4:13 PM, crazyinsane105 said:

Large scale airdrop formations are practically impossible due to advances in air defense systems and long range interception. This concept should have been thrown away by the 1980s

  How about for quickly deploying halfway around the world?

[Yama]

47 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'll admit that I'm not that familiar with RU air-dropped PGMs. I'd think that they would have some GPS (well, GLONAS) guided bombs, but not nearly in the numbers that are at US disposal? Number of produced JDAM kits is reportedly north of 400K - the limiting factor in their employment by UA would probably be the rate at which they are able to drop them.

KAB-500S, it was used quite a bit in Syria. Russia does not seem to have such a huge inventory of them as US does, but OTOH as you said, Ukrainian ability to deliver them is probably limited.

[Yama]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Lancet vs. Buk (note only one missile of uncommon white collor). SAM was hidden near solar power station building, so in addition to AD asset probably energy source was also destroyed by secondary explosions

 

Huh, didn't know there were so big solar farms in Ukraine.

Some crew seem to be running away before the hit, perhaps they realized it was coming.

Meanwhile, UAWT showed three Russian AD losses - two Tor vehicles, and one Buk TELAR. They were 'from September', I don't know where they were taken and if it meant that the pictures were from September, or the losses were. The pics had some green so they may not have been that recent.

[glenn239]

55 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'll admit that I'm not that familiar with RU air-dropped PGMs. I'd think that they would have some GPS (well, GLONAS) guided bombs, but not nearly in the numbers that are at US disposal? Number of produced JDAM kits is reportedly north of 400K - the limiting factor in their employment by UA would probably be the rate at which they are able to drop them.

The first limiting factor will be Russian air defences -  lobbed JDAMs seem obviously a less difficult AD problem than HIMARs.  After that, the rate at which the Ukrainians are able to send them.  (I'm assuming NATO intel will be able to provide more potential targets than the Ukrainians can attempt missions).

Edited December 21, 2022 by glenn239

[Detonable]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Back to infantry war and individual training discussion: better version of older video of two attacks of pro-Ukrainians on pro-Russian positions. Note how small are both attacking and especially defending groups

 

 Did pro-UK overrun them? It's hard to tell who is who.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

... and Western helicopters have access to fire & forget missiles, which are much less risky to use.

Last F&F Hellfire was made in 2006. or 2007. and no more batches were made, production being concentrated on laser guided models. AFAIK lifetime of those rounds is 15 years. However, with some checkups, those could be  still good, with acceptable failure rates for wartime.

There is always EC Tiger with PARS-3 LR/AC-3G ... if you are cruel.

 

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, Detonable said:

  How about for quickly deploying halfway around the world?

When there is no air defense present, and you only need light infantry to do the work? Sure. But Russian concept of airdrop has been focused on ‘let’s throw thousands of troops behind enemy lines with lightly armored vehicles.’ I think that it’s an outdated concept against a near peer adversary 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, bojan said:

Last F&F Hellfire was made in 2006. or 2007. and no more batches were made, production being concentrated on laser guided models. AFAIK lifetime of those rounds is 15 years. However, with some checkups, those could be  still good, with acceptable failure rates for wartime.

There is always EC Tiger with PARS-3 LR/AC-3G ... if you are cruel.

 

Between F&F Brimstones, and ground launchers for laser-guided Hellfires that Sweden sent there, I doubt that much more is needed in heavy ATGM department. I wonder how hard would it be to integrate the Brimstone with something like Mi-24 - if they managed to whip up some ersatz truck launchers in a few months, perhaps this also would be doable?
 

 

1 minute ago, crazyinsane105 said:

When there is no air defense present, and you only need light infantry to do the work? Sure. But Russian concept of airdrop has been focused on ‘let’s throw thousands of troops behind enemy lines with lightly armored vehicles.’ I think that it’s an outdated concept against a near peer adversary 

Airborne in a classical meaning seems to be dead, to a certain notorious individual's despair But airmobile, or even airassault still makes sense. In case of UA, the Hostomel was in general a failure (though not by VDVs fault), but at least an assault on Nova Kakhovka dam was quite successful. 

[crazyinsane105]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

I'll admit that I'm not that familiar with RU air-dropped PGMs. I'd think that they would have some GPS (well, GLONAS) guided bombs, but not nearly in the numbers that are at US disposal? Number of produced JDAM kits is reportedly north of 400K - the limiting factor in their employment by UA would probably be the rate at which they are able to drop them.

Russian PGMs are out there, they exist in decent sized numbers. The issue is that targeting info isn’t as readily available for Russian AF to make great use for them. And if the target is well within artillery range, why waste a PGM on it?

Russians did use PGMs quite extensively in the first week of the war and to very devastating effect on stationary Ukrainian targets. Wasn’t till Ukraine started to utilize their AD better did Russians decide even flying over non-occupied territory wasn’t worth it.

 

 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Probably not as impactful as HIMARs, but JDAMs should be right up there in the list of most dangerous systems sent to Ukraine, assuming the tactics can be utilized to get around Russian AD.

 

I don’t think anything will compare to HIMARS. It seemed to find a sweet spot of range, accuracy, and mobility during a period where the ZSU lacked a significant number of accurate delivery systems. That said I could still see JDAM upsetting the calculus of some of the set piece battles we’ve seen in the East. A half dozen bombs that suddenly accurately impacted a local fortified network could cause a village or neighborhood to be lost. It would probably require some HARMs to make it work, but a delayed fuse mk84 should work against most any of the trench/bunker structures we’ve seen. Definitely not a game changer but significant.

[Josh]

2 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Russian PGMs are out there, they exist in decent sized numbers. The issue is that targeting info isn’t as readily available for Russian AF to make great use for them. And if the target is well within artillery range, why waste a PGM on it?

Russians did use PGMs quite extensively in the first week of the war and to very devastating effect on stationary Ukrainian targets. Wasn’t till Ukraine started to utilize their AD better did Russians decide even flying over non-occupied territory wasn’t worth it.

 

 

There is some anecdotal evidence that RuAF PGMs lack the accuracy of their western counterparts and it seems like they definitely lack a lot of the targeting capabilities, from ISR to analysis to designation pods. One advantage ZSU PGMs would have is NATO satellite and analysis work; it seems like the Russians are quite behind in this category and certainly western satellite coverage is far more prolific if nothing else.

[crazyinsane105]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

There is some anecdotal evidence that RuAF PGMs lack the accuracy of their western counterparts and it seems like they definitely lack a lot of the targeting capabilities, from ISR to analysis to designation pods. One advantage ZSU PGMs would have is NATO satellite and analysis work; it seems like the Russians are quite behind in this category and certainly western satellite coverage is far more prolific if nothing else.

They have quite a few targeting pods. The Su-30s have French ones (which the Russians have eventually copied and made their own) and the Su-34s have an internal targeting suite built in it, so a pod isn’t necessary.

But as you stated, the issue is with lack of satellite coverage and dealing a fluid environment where battle lines aren’t necessarily super clear. 
 

Without the presence of enemy AD or enemy aviation, it’s not that large of an ask for a modern Air Force to deliver PGMs. The VKS did this quite well in Syria. But Ukraine is a completely different environment and VKS just isn’t up to the task of both SEAD and providing long range strikes. 
 

With the amount of AD that Ukraine had at the start of the conflict, it’s doubtful airpower from even NATO would be as effective as we would like to think. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by crazyinsane105

[seahawk]

5 hours ago, bojan said:

Last F&F Hellfire was made in 2006. or 2007. and no more batches were made, production being concentrated on laser guided models. AFAIK lifetime of those rounds is 15 years. However, with some checkups, those could be  still good, with acceptable failure rates for wartime.

There is always EC Tiger with PARS-3 LR/AC-3G ... if you are cruel.

 

Actually, if you discount the reliability, this would be a war or the kind of war the Tiger was designed for. With the mast-mounted or roof mounted sights it would be really good as a highly mobile ATGM team.

[seahawk]

9 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

Mr seahawk, Sir.

I really do not get it but are you drinking it by the pint or litre?  Not a chance in hell Russia will be allowed to destroy Ukraine.  Truth is, you will only 'Get' Ukraine if you do so and there will be nothing left worth having then.  With the situation created by Russia/Putin/the gang of however many supporters there are, Russia will be a lot better off and have more chance of keeping the far east of your country away from the PRC if you just drop the hysterics and go home.  I get that party poopers are unpopular but there is no legitimate reason for this horrible bloody genocidal war.

Study Russian history. Russian society is not comparable to a Western society. They have an incredible acceptance for suffering, but they also enjoy making others suffer. And they see all neighbours as below them.

But most importantly they are deeply autocratic. They love one strong leader, who makes the decisions and allows the population to largely stay away from politics. The leader is generally not questioned and any mistakes are attributed to those serving the leader (the boyars).

Once a leader is replaced the new leader has to demonstrate his strength.

So if you apply this to today, we see that there is practically no peace movement. When losses are questioned, the war itself is rarely questioned, the way it was fought by the generals is. They are blamed for the losses. Any theoretical successor to Putin will have to continue the war and even put more effort into it.

Just look at how Russia acted in 1917/18. When the Tsar fell the new government did not stop the war, they only did once the troops were needed to fight a Civil War in Russia.

[JamesR]

31 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Study Russian history. Russian society is not comparable to a Western society. They have an incredible acceptance for suffering, but they also enjoy making others suffer. And they see all neighbours as below them.

But most importantly they are deeply autocratic. They love one strong leader, who makes the decisions and allows the population to largely stay away from politics. The leader is generally not questioned and any mistakes are attributed to those serving the leader (the boyars).

Once a leader is replaced the new leader has to demonstrate his strength.

So if you apply this to today, we see that there is practically no peace movement. When losses are questioned, the war itself is rarely questioned, the way it was fought by the generals is. They are blamed for the losses. Any theoretical successor to Putin will have to continue the war and even put more effort into it.

Just look at how Russia acted in 1917/18. When the Tsar fell the new government did not stop the war, they only did once the troops were needed to fight a Civil War in Russia.

 

I've heard of this before.. and it's incredibly sad.  The nobility of embracing suffering.  I do think you're right.  And I agree that there is no hope if Putin goes away because whoever replaces him will likely be worse.

I believe part of Russian regimes problems was that Ukraine was getting too close to the west culturally.  Western culture was the greater threat.. not NATO.   Over the years, well before this current war,  I've watched regular Russians vlog about day to day life in Russia.  The super markets and malls all looked very western.. with plenty of western brands.  I guess those I've been watching are the minority "pro western" types. 

As for autocrats... many people love strong (perceived or otherwise) autocrats.  Doesn't make them a good choice.  People make stupid choices when they blindly follow a nutjo... autocrat (not even talking about Russia here!).

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by JamesR

[AETiglathPZ]

British volunteer talks about his experience fighting for Ukraine. He goes into depth on the barracks bombing of Yavoriv military base on 13MAR22.

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Detonable said:

 Did pro-UK overrun them? It's hard to tell who is who.

No, pro-Ukrainians retreated into small forrest that was later hit by MLRS and then by thermobaric free-fall bombs from low flying Su-34.  

[Roman Alymov]

40 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Study Russian history. Russian society is not comparable to a Western society. They have an incredible acceptance for suffering, but they also enjoy making others suffer. And they see all neighbours as below them.

But most importantly they are deeply autocratic. They love one strong leader, who makes the decisions and allows the population to largely stay away from politics. The leader is generally not questioned and any mistakes are attributed to those serving the leader (the boyars).

Once a leader is replaced the new leader has to demonstrate his strength.

So if you apply this to today, we see that there is practically no peace movement. When losses are questioned, the war itself is rarely questioned, the way it was fought by the generals is. They are blamed for the losses. Any theoretical successor to Putin will have to continue the war and even put more effort into it.

Just look at how Russia acted in 1917/18. When the Tsar fell the new government did not stop the war, they only did once the troops were needed to fight a Civil War in Russia.

You got strange version of Russian history, that got very little common with reality, but it is up to you. 

[Roman Alymov]

11 minutes ago, JamesR said:

 

I've heard of this before.. and it's incredibly sad.  The nobility of embracing suffering.  I do think you're right.  And I agree that there is no hope if Putin goes away because whoever replaces him will likely be worse.

I believe part of Russian regimes problems was that Ukraine was getting too close to the west culturally.  Western culture was the greater threat.. not NATO.   Over the years, well before this current war,  I've watched regular Russians vlog about day to day life in Russia.  The super markets and malls all looked very western.. with plenty of western brands.  I guess those I've been watching are the minority "pro western" types. 

As for autocrats... many people love strong (perceived or otherwise) autocrats.  Doesn't make them a good choice.  People make stupid choices when they blindly follow a nutjo... autocrat (not even talking about Russia here!).

What exactly Western culture? Super markets and malls, western brands? I'm sorry but it is not "western culture".

[Roman Alymov]

Another M777 hit by Lancet - note the same vertical frames around, seems like it is common practice now

Video https://t.me/milinfolive/94652

[Roman Alymov]

Lancet vs. land-based radar 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 hours ago, Josh said:

There is some anecdotal evidence that RuAF PGMs lack the accuracy of their western counterparts and it seems like they definitely lack a lot of the targeting capabilities, from ISR to analysis to designation pods. One advantage ZSU PGMs would have is NATO satellite and analysis work; it seems like the Russians are quite behind in this category and certainly western satellite coverage is far more prolific if nothing else.

The best indicator of that was the attack on the Babi Yar transmitter tower. They missed the legs of the transmitter, and managed to hit the holocaust memorial next door. No doubt in my mind that was PGM's. But to use them, you have to have adequate training, and I dont think personally they have been training with them, because they dont actually have many of them. For months the main thing we have been seeing is expenditure of dumb bombs, which they have in epic stocks.

They certainly have a GPS guided bomb. But can anyone point to them training with them in peacetime, with photographs of them? I gather they did use them in Syria, but again, not anything close to the way allied airforces use LGB's or JDAM.

I agree, their greatest problem is targeting. When they can find electrical substations, that sounds very impressive, till you also hear they hit a telephone exchange that hasnt been used in 20 years....

[Stuart Galbraith]

37 minutes ago, JamesR said:

 

I've heard of this before.. and it's incredibly sad.  The nobility of embracing suffering.  I do think you're right.  And I agree that there is no hope if Putin goes away because whoever replaces him will likely be worse.

I believe part of Russian regimes problems was that Ukraine was getting too close to the west culturally.  Western culture was the greater threat.. not NATO.   Over the years, well before this current war,  I've watched regular Russians vlog about day to day life in Russia.  The super markets and malls all looked very western.. with plenty of western brands.  I guess those I've been watching are the minority "pro western" types. 

As for autocrats... many people love strong (perceived or otherwise) autocrats.  Doesn't make them a good choice.  People make stupid choices when they blindly follow a nutjo... autocrat (not even talking about Russia here!).

 

I dont think so much they love autocrats, its more a case they loathe the chaos they alway seem to get when they dont have one. Both Gorbachev and Yeltsin were, within reason, reasonable, moderate leaders by Soviet standards. So was Putin, at least until it jumped the track sometime in 2007.

Russians fear instability, which is kinda ironic when you see what Putin has given them. Hopefully this will cure them from the 'strong' leader fetish, but personally I kinda doubt it. They like a nice quiet peaceful life, which generally means no protesting.

[seahawk]

28 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

You got strange version of Russian history, that got very little common with reality, but it is up to you. 

It is okay that you disagree, normally I would now explain that few Russian rulers focussed on improving Russia as much as on extending its power. Positive examples can be found in Peter the Great and Catherine II and you could even make a case for Lenin. 

[JamesR]

38 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

What exactly Western culture? Super markets and malls, western brands? I'm sorry but it is not "western culture".

How about the ability to call something a "war" instead of a "special military operation" without facing legal repercussions?