China's Peaceful Rise

[JasonJ]

I doubt that happening.

I don't disagree. Because PRC won't actually shoot, it's not so important for the PF-15 and PF-16 to receive weapon upgrades but rather increasing the number of patrol ships/aircraft would be more beneficial as they are doing with purchases you have described. China won't shoot because of the US navy is involved. If the US navy was entirely out of the picture, as well as any future JMSDF involvement, I think the PRC would find it tempting to shoot to sink should resistance in the waters by the Philippines/Vietnam went up. US backing is in the form of ensuring PRC not going beyond boat ramming, water cannon, etc.

[JasonJ]

In a report about Australian donations to Pacific island nations, competition with China in donation over Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa is mentioned.

 

 

The Pacific Islands region has been spared any serious impact from cuts to the Australian aid program revealed in budget documents released yesterday.

Australia's bilateral program in Papua New Guinea has been trimmed by 5% and there has been a 10% cut to the funding Australia provides to Pacific regional organisations and programs delivered on a regional basis.

As a consequence of a 40% cut in Australia's aid funding to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea replaces Indonesia as the largest recipient of Australian aid, receiving $477.4 million. This underlines the special significance of Papua New Guinea for Australia. The Australian media has linked the absence of significant cuts to the Papua New Guinea program to Port Moresby's cooperation on refugee resettlement. But this cooperation, which has been recognised with a special aid allocation of $420 million over four years under the Joint Understanding between Australia and Papua New Guinea on further bilateral cooperation on health, education and law and order in 2013, is only a minor part of Australia's relationship with Papua New Guinea. Our colonial history, geographic proximity, deep trade and investment ties and people-to-people connections mean that Australia has to lead in assisting Papua New Guinea tackle its development challenges.

There are a number of reasons Foreign Minister Julie Bishop would have quarantined the Pacific from the largest cuts ever to Australia's aid program:

1. Pacific Island countries are Australia's neighbours. Australia has a responsibility to help its neighbours, and this help also ultimately supports Australia's own security and prosperity.
2. The development needs of Pacific Island countries are significant. Unlike countries in Southeast Asia, which are moving away from reliance on aid, a number of Pacific Island countries will be aid dependent for the foreseeable future. This research by the ANU's Development Policy Centre shows that eight Pacific Island countries are among the 20 most aid dependent countries in the world, and their dependency has grown in the last decade.
3. Australia is the leading donor in the region by a large margin. Between 2006 and 2013, Australia provided $6.8 billion in bilateral aid to the region. The US was the next-largest donor, providing US$1.7 billion. Julie Bishop is committed to ensuring that Australia remains the 'partner of choice' for Pacific Island countries. Shoring up current levels of aid is important to maintaining Australia's dominance as a donor in the face of increasing interest in the region from China and other emerging donors. In fact, in the period 2006-2013, China provided more aid to Fiji than Australia did (US$330 million compared with US$250 million), becoming Fiji's largest development partner. In countries like Samoa and Tonga, too, the amount of China's aid is starting to rival Australia's.
4. The size of Australia's aid program in Pacific Island countries theoretically gives the Australian Government a means of influencing governments in the region, and leverage in pursuing its own regional agenda.

The Australian Government's worthy commitment to maintaining a large aid program in the Pacific in the face of severe pressure on the aid budget will no doubt be welcomed by Pacific Island countries. Australia, as the major power in a region which lacks the capacity to overcome obstacles to development alone, must take a leading role in helping to overcome these obstacles. The fact that the region has survived the most savage cut ever to the aid program sends a strong signal that Australia will not back away from its commitment to development in the Pacific.

But the flipside is that Australia's ability to demand improved outcomes from development projects in the region is limited. While governments are confident of Australia's continued generosity, they are less likely to be motivated to improve efficiencies. Canberra should be conscious that its commitment to the region will not necessarily equate to enhanced accountability and effectiveness for the Australian aid program in the Pacific.

 

 

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2015/05/13/Australia-aid-budget-Pacific-spared-serious-cuts.aspx?COLLCC=1635904519&

 

 

 

Japan recognizes the very tiny Pacific island state Niue.

 

TOKYO: Japan on Friday (May 15) added one more country to its map of the world, recognising the tiny Pacific island nation of Niue - with its sum total of 1,611 inhabitants.

 

The move makes Niue the 195th country Tokyo has recognised and comes as the world's third largest economy looks to bolster its influence in the South Pacific to counter a Chinese charm offensive in developing nations.

 

"We have decided to exercise diplomatic recognition out of our wish to strengthen cooperation (with Niue) in the international sphere," Japan's Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida told a regular press briefing.

 

Niue, a self-governing democracy known by its inhabitants as "the Rock", has no traffic lights and lies around 2,400 kilometres northeast of New Zealand.

 

Its 260-square-kilometre area makes it about 1.5 times the size of Washington DC, according to the CIA's World Factbook, and the second least populous country recognised by Japan after Vatican City.

 

While Britain's Queen Elizabeth is its head of state, day-to-day governance is carried out by Prime Minister Toke Talagi and his three cabinet ministers, who are held in check by a 20-strong legislature.

 

Niue is in free association with New Zealand, from which it gained a form of independence in 1974, and has been recognised by around a dozen nations.

 

The country will participate in the Pacific Islands Leaders' Meeting in Japan later this month, a forum Tokyo hosts every three years, which also includes senior officials from Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

 

Japan has been attempting to boost its profile in the Pacific, at a time of growing Chinese economic and political influence there, with the Asian giants competing to offer aid and development assistance.

 

 

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/japan-recognises-niue-as/1849534.html

[JasonJ]

The human rights abuser (like throwing activists in jail) single party yet still low gdp per capita Vietnam has some news.

 

The human rights issues complicate TPP negotiations.

http://www.voanews.com/content/social-activist-beaten-as-us-rights-envoy-visits-vietnam/2765370.html

 

They test fired a Molniya-class missile boat which was produced under Russian-license. They have plans to build 6. Wiki has HQ-375, HQ-376, HQ-377, HQ-378 listed and the two mentioned in the article are 379 and 380. Not sure if the plan to have 6 include the mentioned for or not. Well they are tiny so anyway..

http://www.viet-jo.com/news/politics/150423090913.html

 

In April, 2 Japanese destroyers visited Vietnam making it the third visit by the JMSDF to Vietnam. Also a couple of P-3C patrol aircraft which just completed anti-piracy duty is making a stop by Vietnam. And the patrol boat Yahima (5,300 tons) of the Japanese coast guard is visiting Vietnam in May.

http://www.viet-jo.com/news/politics/150515014819.html

[Mr King]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lBCRCnOUVk

[JasonJ]

Taiwan military takes small steps towards more cooperation with the US and other countries.

 

...

More than 22 nations, including the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Chile, are taking part in the inaugural PALS event at US Marine Corps Training Area Bellows, with about 110 international and US groups participating.

 

PALS brought together senior leaders of allied and partner marine corps, naval infantries and militaries spanning the Indo-Asia-Pacific region who have an interest in military amphibious capability development, US Department of Defense spokesperson Colonel Steve Warren said earlier this week.

 

Group briefings and discussions are centering on observations of an amphibious landing as part of the joint sea-based exercises, and are to conclude with scenario-based tabletop exercises, Warren said.

 

Participants have discussed ship-to-shore tactics, capabilities of their respective militaries and new opportunities to work together, US officials have said.

 

These types of engagements result in better training and interoperability with our friends and partners throughout the region, Warren said.

 

PALS participants on Tuesday observed an amphibious landing by the US 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, launched from the USS Rushmore, a news release from US Department of Defense said.

 

The landing was part of the US Pacific Fleets Culebra Koa 15, a joint exercise taking place in Hawaii at the same time as the symposium.

 

China was not invited to the symposium due to specific US laws prohibiting the involvement of the Peoples Liberation Army [PLA], Warren said on Tuesday.

 

...

 

Political pundits said the Taiwanese delegations trip to Hawaii is significant and positive development, since Taiwan has not been invited to attend large international military events in the past decade.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2015/05/22/2003618885

 

 

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) spokesperson Major-General Luo Shou-he announced Sunday the ministrys sense of accomplishment after the U.S. Congress passed an act that would allow Taiwan to participate in the Rim of the Pacific exercise (RIMPAC), the world's largest international maritime exercise.

 

In past meetings with U.S. military officials, MND has always expressed its desire to join the exercise, which would help strengthen Taiwan's cooperation with the U.S. and other countries in terms of international humanitarian assistance.

 

The U.S. Congress passed an act in its National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2016 that requires the Secretary of Defense to invite military forces of Taiwan to participate in any maritime exercise (RIMPAC) if the Secretary has invited the military forces of People's Republic of China to participate in such exercise.

 

The U.S. Congress supports Taiwan's efforts to participate in the humanitarian assistance and disaster relief segments of multilateral exercises such as RIMPAC, according to Luo.

 

According to the act, the U.S. government should reaffirm its security commitments under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which is the cornerstone of Taiwan-U.S. relations and a key instrument of peace, security, and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

 

The biannual warfare exercise allows the United States Pacific Command to enhance interoperability between Pacific Rim armed forces as a mean of promoting stability in the region, a military exchange that Luo said will benefit Taiwan as well as other participating nations.

 

However, the major-general said he has yet to receive an invitation from his U.S. counterpart for Taiwans participation in the next joint exercise.

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=2738662

Edited May 21, 2015 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

Japan adds in big aid package to Pacific islands worth 452 million US dollars spread over for 3 years.

 

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/05/23/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-announces-fresh-¥55-billion-aid-package-for-pacific-island-nations/

[JasonJ]

Power struggle, coup, and speculation of assassination attempts on Xi.

 

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Power-struggle-has-Xi-leery-of-coup-assassination-attempts

 

http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/just-how-secure-is-xi-jinping-really/

 

While speculation and rumors are easy to produce and exaggerate about this, it wouldn't be too surprising giving the consolidation of power Xi has been doing and his rather long running anti-corruption campaigns. Such campaigns probably include non-loyal people as well and not just those heavy in corruption.

 

The political power struggle that may be going on inside China may create greater rift when combined with a couple of other growing tension points.

 

One being the economic slow down of China. While the slow down is natural for any growing economy, adjustments a needed to keep growth going. So this adjustment period may put additional strain on Xi's control if the adjustment process doesn't go well.

 

The other pressure point I think is the regional security development against China. Countries will of course want to continue business and trade with China, but the security aspect in the region is continuing to grow tense. If it gets bad enough, it may hurt China's ability to conduct the business aspect in the region which then would put greater strain on Xi's ability to stay in power. There has been numerous times when Chinese people would protests but the CPC has been able to keep it under control. An important aspect of justifying the CPC's control and right now, Xi's control, is economic growth. So if the economic situation goes really bad, it may provoke a drastic change.

[X-Files]

Guffaw

 

http://www.tank-net.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=34256&p=1166016

[JasonJ]

Will China be able to complete their 6 or so man-made islands in the Spratlys or will increased pressure persuade China to temporarily halt construction?

[Josh]

They will create and expand regardless. At this point they've sold it nationally and could not fall back on the concept without looking weak and illegitimate. The only question is what form the initial clash will take and which country it will involve, IMO.

 

While I see China having a lot of problems in the long term in terms of economic and political stability, I don't Xi's position as remotely threatened unless there is truly a major economic downturn or a military clash occurs that he can be construed as loosing. However either of those situations could provoke a military conflict just as a self defense mechanism for the CCP, or Xi specifically, IMO. More over modern PGMs give an ever increasing advantage to person who strikes first effectively. And out of blue attack by either the US or PRC would be fairly devastating to either side, which is not a stabilizing element.

[JasonJ]

How effective could S400 missiles defend the islands from air attack? Maybe only long range cruise missiles and ballastic missiles can infiltrate an S400 air defense zone with no risk to human life from the attacker's side. Not sure if F-35s can infiltrate vs S400.

[Josh]

How effective could S400 missiles defend the islands from air attack? Maybe only long range cruise missiles and ballastic missiles can infiltrate an S400 air defense zone with no risk to human life from the attacker's side. Not sure if F-35s can infiltrate vs S400.

 

Actually the islands are sufficiently small enough any SAM site would by nature be completely static, assuming there's enough room to properly site one at all. Sitting duck. There might still be value in placing long range SAMs where they can illuminate the local patrol planes and just generally enforce the idea that the airspace is Chinese, but in a conflict they're the first ones to the wall - no way to move, little way to overlap with other systems effectively, and one imagines that not a lot of rounds would be that forward deployed in such a situation.

[JasonJ]

Economic sanctions would probably have to come before military strike. As long as all the West is not willing to collectively do that, SCS is PRC's in time. Appeasement by definition but maybe just not as critical of appeasement as the common example prior to WW2. After the construction of their man-made islands, maybe PRC will then start to blockade the other controlled islands/reefs into relinquishing control.

[Josh]

Blockades can be construed as acts of war. Whether anyone wants to _pick_ that fight is another matter. The PRC is going to be a fixture in the SCS for sure, but it remains to be seen how they could exclusively operate there without actually opening fire on someone at some point. The intent seems to be to make it so uncomfortable with numerous 'civilian' enforcement fleets backed up by possible overt military force that the entire thing is fought out with water cannons and ultimately conceded.

[Corinthian]

How effective could S400 missiles defend the islands from air attack? Maybe only long range cruise missiles and ballastic missiles can infiltrate an S400 air defense zone with no risk to human life from the attacker's side. Not sure if F-35s can infiltrate vs S400.

 

Stealthy frigates with their guns...? Smaller stealthier missile boats that can get real close and launch navalised Hellfire?

[JasonJ]

If the Vietnamese actual shoot back at ramming Chinese coast guard ships, if it's the Paracels, I would say forget it, if it's in the Spratlys, the Vietnamese should be backed up.

[JasonJ]

 

How effective could S400 missiles defend the islands from air attack? Maybe only long range cruise missiles and ballastic missiles can infiltrate an S400 air defense zone with no risk to human life from the attacker's side. Not sure if F-35s can infiltrate vs S400.

 

Stealthy frigates with their guns...? Smaller stealthier missile boats that can get real close and launch navalised Hellfire?

Better yet, a captured James Bond that manages to escape with the missiles destroyed in the process

[Corinthian]

With the evil media mogul burning in the end for a happy ending. YAY!

[Josh]

 

Stealthy frigates with their guns...? Smaller stealthier missile boats that can get real close and launch navalised Hellfire?

 

 

You would only need stealth if there was some kind of significant AShM threat on the island or immediately available. By significant I mean a threat to the ship that would handle the shore bombardment. If its a Burke or similarly capable ship you're going to have to make a fairly concerted attack on it while it can shell you for pennies. You could also launch any number of ARMs from just under the radar horizon or have something like an F-15 do zoom climbs a hundred miles away and fling cheap glide bombs at it, all of which the island would obligated to fire at with million dollar missiles. There's not any very good way to harden a SAM site sitting on sand bar.

[tankerwanabe]

I am hoping that instead of using Orions to survey the PRC's fake islands, we use B-52s.

[JasonJ]

I am hoping that instead of using Orions to survey the PRC's fake islands, we use B-52s.

Something like the 2 B-52s going through China's newly declared ADIZ at the time in November 2013.

[Josh]

I am hoping that instead of using Orions to survey the PRC's fake islands, we use B-52s.

 

I think the point gets across so long as something flies over it and the P-3s have much better sensors for the work.

[Nobu]

Once it becomes apparent to North Vietnam that the United States will intervene on their behalf if a tripwire is crossed, I have little doubt the North Vietnamese will trigger it themselves.

 

The Vietnamese would blow up the Maine if they thought it would trigger a clash between china and the United States on behalf of their interests, to cement their territorial claims, and to be able to call upon the United States Navy to protect those claims and interests.

[JasonJ]

Once it becomes apparent to North Vietnam that the United States will intervene on their behalf if a tripwire is crossed, I have little doubt the North Vietnamese will trigger it themselves.

 

The Vietnamese would blow up the Maine if they thought it would trigger a clash between china and the United States on behalf of their interests, to cement their territorial claims, and to be able to call upon the United States Navy to protect those claims and interests.

The only worthy tripwire is if Chinese coast guard ships blockade a currently held Vietnamese reef/island and ram/chase away any Vietnamese ships trying to reach their blockaded reef/island in the Spratlys. If the Vietnamese shoot at Chinese coast guard ships while doing something stupid like ramming Chinese ships near Chinese held islands/reefs, then I can't endorse support for Vietnam.

[Heirophant]

 

Once it becomes apparent to North Vietnam that the United States will intervene on their behalf if a tripwire is crossed, I have little doubt the North Vietnamese will trigger it themselves.

 

The Vietnamese would blow up the Maine if they thought it would trigger a clash between china and the United States on behalf of their interests, to cement their territorial claims, and to be able to call upon the United States Navy to protect those claims and interests.

The only worthy tripwire is if Chinese coast guard ships blockade a currently held Vietnamese reef/island and ram/chase away any Vietnamese ships trying to reach their blockaded reef/island in the Spratlys. If the Vietnamese shoot at Chinese coast guard ships while doing something stupid like ramming Chinese ships near Chinese held islands/reefs, then I can't endorse support for Vietnam.

 

 

I for one would never support North Vietnam.

 

There is overwhelming evidence that they are funneling troops and weapons to the southern battlefields along the Ho Chi Minh trail. They deny it, but we know it's definitely going on.