What if Germany had not invaded Poland but allied with it against USSR (and maybe West)

[BansheeOne]

Well, analogous to the thread's original "Hitler could have avoided war in the West and attacked the USSR to the cheers of the world if he had been smarter about Czechoslovakia and Poland" scenario, both sides acting more clevery for Japan to be given free reign in China and be tied down in a brutal war between murderous dictatorial ideologies across Asia forever would have been great for the West. The whole area remains stuck in the 30s, no democratization and no economic competition from either Japan, China or Korea in the following decades! You just keep selling everybody there oil, arms, and other stuff while they kill each other, per the E5M doctrine. 😁

[glenn239]

The idea that the CCP killing a hundred million Chinese peasants was 'progress' in comparison to a US-Japanese imposed solution seems unlikely.  For all the talk of Japanese brutality, what the CCP and Nationalist did after 1945 was far worse, is my understanding - I google estimates of up to 40-80 million murders under Mao.  The idea that the US had any interest in the French, British, or Dutch setting one boot back into Asia after Japan's surrender also seems counterintuitive to me.  I think the US was better off taking Singapore as a US military base, and in 1946-1950 firing the Japanese navy back up as a US ally crewing surplus US navy ships, and telling the Europeans to stay in Europe.  

Edited March 27, 2021 by glenn239

[BansheeOne]

The question here is not "progress" in terms of less people killed - it's hard to argue that enabling a more successful German-Polish attack on the USSR in the original scenario, probably resulting in a longer war (and Holocaust) over more Soviet territory, possibly extending into low-intensity warfare and periodical flare-ups over decades, is progress over 45 years of subsequent communist rule in Eastern Europe if that outcome can even be avoided, either. We're talking about the losers of WW II achieving a reasonable amount of their greater objectives while avoiding war with the Western powers. If the latter take an interest in the fate of the victims over the cost of getting involved, we're back to real history. 

[glenn239]

In terms of the original scenario of a Polish alliance with Germany, what Hitler would do with that in pocket is fairly straightforward, as per the original post.  What Stalin would do is another question.  In the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact all the the territories being allocated to Poland for this AH were actually scooped up by the Red Army.  OTOH, if Germany and Poland are in an alliance, the invasion of Poland which sent the west to war against Germany would not occur.  In the west, Germany and the French are eyeing each other up, in the east the Soviets and Poles.  Is Hitler able to pick off the French first and then invade the Soviet Union later, or does a war with France cause the Soviets to launch a massive invasion of Poland?   Or, does the situation sort of settle into a stalemate that even Hitler is reluctant to risk breaking?

Edited March 27, 2021 by glenn239

[Nobu]

16 hours ago, glenn239 said:

 What the Americans should have done is gotten ride of unconditional surrender  and ordered the Japanese army to remain in the field in China under US command.

Interesting, but American public sentiment toward Japan and Japanese at this particular time would very likely not have allowed anything less total than unconditional surrender.

[Stuart Galbraith]

18 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Well, analogous to the thread's original "Hitler could have avoided war in the West and attacked the USSR to the cheers of the world if he had been smarter about Czechoslovakia and Poland" scenario, both sides acting more clevery for Japan to be given free reign in China and be tied down in a brutal war between murderous dictatorial ideologies across Asia forever would have been great for the West. The whole area remains stuck in the 30s, no democratization and no economic competition from either Japan, China or Korea in the following decades! You just keep selling everybody there oil, arms, and other stuff while they kill each other, per the E5M doctrine. 😁

A depiction of an Imperial Japanese Soldier as he would have looked by the year 2000.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

18 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The idea that the CCP killing a hundred million Chinese peasants was 'progress' in comparison to a US-Japanese imposed solution seems unlikely.  For all the talk of Japanese brutality, what the CCP and Nationalist did after 1945 was far worse, is my understanding - I google estimates of up to 40-80 million murders under Mao.  The idea that the US had any interest in the French, British, or Dutch setting one boot back into Asia after Japan's surrender also seems counterintuitive to me.  I think the US was better off taking Singapore as a US military base, and in 1946-1950 firing the Japanese navy back up as a US ally crewing surplus US navy ships, and telling the Europeans to stay in Europe.  

The US may have tried to keep the Empires out of the Western Pacific. There is a well known case when the British tried to retake Hong Kong, and were informed by the Japanese commander that he was so sorry he couldn't surrender, but he was under direct orders from the Americans to surrender to them. Smelling a ruse, the British Commander pointed out that if they didnt surrender damn quick, they would come in firing. Hence the Hong Kong remained a successful trading outpost until comparatively recently. Whether the US intended to hand it over to China under our noses is unknown, but Its a possibility. Roosevelt never had much love for Empires other than his own as we know, and its possible some of that attitude was transmitted down the chain of command, even after his death.

You also ought to google 'Million Dollar Point', which may tell you something about the US attitude to French Colonial possessions. Would Vietnam have been avoided if they had donated all the kit gratis to the French? Probably not, but at least the French might have kept the pot boiling a bit longer before they bailed out.

The central problem of the US attitude to decolonization was not that they wanted Empires to end. They already were. It was the boneheadedness that believed they would instantly turn into card carrying Republicans if they were left to their own devices, which was the determination of what the US State Department would do. We saw how well that worked in Burma and Egypt.

[BansheeOne]

5 hours ago, Nobu said:

Interesting, but American public sentiment toward Japan and Japanese at this particular time would very likely not have allowed anything less total than unconditional surrender.

It would have been about as thinkable as Operation Unthinkable in Europe.

The point of departure for Japan along the lines of the German-Polish scenario is 1931 or even 1928. Japanese interest in the China Far East Railway and Manchuria takes the place of the Polish Corridor to Danzig and Lebensraum in the East. Just like the Nazis can still be Nazis but Hitler needs to be a little less Hitlerish, Japan can still be gung-ho kokutai, but the Kwantung Army needs to be a little less gekokujō.

I'd say the Poland analogue is that they need to take advantage of Zhang Zuolin's weakened position in 1928 and ally with him against the KMT (and communists, natch) rather than murdering him. If they let it come to the Mukden Incident, the thing is Gleiwitzed, and developments follow their logical historic path.

[JasonJ]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

...

I'd say the Poland analogue is that they need to take advantage of Zhang Zuolin's weakened position in 1928 and ally with him against the KMT (and communists, natch) rather than murdering him. If they let it come to the Mukden Incident, the thing is Gleiwitzed, and developments follow their logical historic path.

It went the other way. Japan generally backed Zhang Zoulin's clique, the Fangtian Clique, during the 1920s as it was a suitable buffer between Korea and the SU even though Zhang didn't like Japan. The Fangtian's brief economic success was due to the chief economic official whose name I can't found on a quick search. The economy collasped in 1927 due to reckless spending in military campaigns against other Chinese cliques by Zhang and so the chief economic advisor ran away as a result, dying shortly afterward IIRC. Japan would find other collaborators in the setup of Manchuria although that happend 3 years after the Kwangtang murdered Zhang. Former Fangtien zone remained a place of bandits.  While KMT was having a major communists problem with the Chinse soviet declared state so Japan probably didn't want to harm at this period with KMT being busy fighting and killing the communists which ended up lasting until the finale called the Long March in 1935/1936.

[JasonJ]

Here he is, Wang Yongjiang.

No English wiki:

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/王永江

[Nobu]

3 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Japan can still be gung-ho kokutai, but the Kwantung Army needs to be a little less gekokujō.

I'd say the Poland analogue is that they need to take advantage of Zhang Zuolin's weakened position in 1928 and ally with him against the KMT (and communists, natch) rather than murdering him. If they let it come to the Mukden Incident, the thing is Gleiwitzed, and developments follow their logical historic path.

I would generally agree, and add that there is probably a political lesson to be learned here.

Murdering him was in keeping with the Kwantung Army's DNA, however.

[glenn239]

On 3/28/2021 at 6:49 AM, BansheeOne said:

It would have been about as thinkable as Operation Unthinkable in Europe.

My understanding is that US public attitude towards Japan started changing almost instantly as Allied occupation forces landed in Japan and everyone started getting along famously.

[Nobu]

I have been told of hatred of that immediate Allied postwar occupation period by relatives. Behind the face, to bear the unbearable.

Edited March 29, 2021 by Nobu

[glenn239]

Some policies I've read about seem vindictive, like how the Japanese were struggling for shipping for as much as 5 years or more while the Americans were swimming in Liberty ships after the war.