Predictions and estimates of where the United States and the West in general will be in 20 years?

[futon]

53 minutes ago, sunday said:

No this last round of tariffs, and were you bothering to read the link I posted, you would have understood the purpose of those you call "blanket mass tariffs".

As I am tired to be the target of Stuart-like misinformed walls of text, this could be the last answer on this topic.

Fake "not bothering to read". 

You agree with Canada 51st?

[Stuart Galbraith]

I dont believe Sunday could have read a book, it seems he is scared of long strings of text that talk sense.

Where are we headed? War. My guess is a very big one. We are due one, and our leaders are less than intelligent. Its usually the ideal time.

[rmgill]

19 hours ago, futon said:

The proponents for the mass tariffs seem to be angling towards idealism of self-sufficiency. And the idealism might be more about harnessing political power than top economic performance.

No, its the idealism of being treated the way we treat our allies. 

Unequal tariffs aren't fair, and given the screaming about the US raising tariffs, if they're so awful and impolite, WHY ARE OUR ALLIES LEVYING THEM AGAINST US?
 

19 hours ago, futon said:

Reduced regulations related cost and letting the drilling happen seemed plenty enough on its ownbut now will be working to make up for sustaining mass tariff damage.

This is an attempt to address the damage that's been building in the US due to the tariffs on us. 

Again via grok:
 

Quote

could you summarize the Japanese tariffs on US goods please?

Quote

 

Japan imposes tariffs on various U.S. goods, though its average applied tariff rate is among the lowest globally. As of recent data, Japan's simple average applied Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate is relatively low, with manufactured goods facing an average of around 1.1% to 1.2%. However, specific U.S. agricultural products face higher tariffs under Japan's tariff schedule. For example, historically, tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods have included rates such as 32% on oranges, 50% on beef, 40% on certain cheeses, and 58% on wine, though these rates can vary or be reduced under trade agreements or temporary measures.

Under the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement implemented in 2020, Japan has eliminated or reduced tariffs on many U.S. agricultural and industrial goods, covering billions in trade value. For instance, tariffs on over $7.2 billion of U.S. food and agricultural exports have been lowered or removed, with over 90% of these imports now entering Japan duty-free or with preferential access. Products like beef, pork, and certain fruits have seen staged reductions, while others, such as green tea and soy sauce, benefit from immediate tariff elimination.

Japan's tariff system also includes a rice import quota of about 770,000 metric tons annually with no tariff, but beyond this, a specific duty of 341 yen per kilogram applies, which has been contested as exaggerated when U.S. officials claim a 700% tariff. Japan does not impose tariffs on U.S. cars, trucks, or buses, contrary to some claims of high duties in this sector. Recent U.S. policies under President Trump, announced in April 2025, introduced a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods and a 25% tariff on auto imports, prompting Japan to argue these measures misrepresent its trade practices, as its average tariff on U.S. goods is closer to 3.2%, while the U.S. applies about 1.4% on Japanese imports. Japan's response has focused on negotiation rather than retaliation, highlighting its low baseline tariffs and significant investments in the U.S. economy.

 

 

19 hours ago, futon said:

Foreign goods are verbally attacked as stealing wealth. 

What's the Japanese argument for 341 Yen per Kilogram after the 770,000 metric ton allowance? 

What about the 50% tariff on US Beef? 

I like a number of Japanese products. I like Hondas immensely. Other products likewise and even some foods stuffs. (I drank a ramune last night incidentally). But if Japan considers tariffs on Japanese goods into the US to be damaging, why can we not consider Japanese tariffs on US goods to also be damaging? 

それは公平ですか?

Edited April 6 by rmgill

[rmgill]

10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I dont believe Sunday could have read a book, it seems he is scared of long strings of text that talk sense.

Where are we headed? War. My guess is a very big one. We are due one, and our leaders are less than intelligent. Its usually the ideal time.

Why? You think 40% of the US's B2 Strike strength at Diego means something? 

Good thing you lot didn't sell it yet eh? 

[Der Zeitgeist]

12 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Good thing you lot didn't sell it yet eh? 

Well, they did. To Mauritius.

[sunday]

I am not scared of long texts that do not make any sense. I am merely tired, disgusted, and even repulsed by them.

Fortunately for @futon, his news about the Asia-Pacific region are valuable.

Unfortunately for @Stuart Galbraith, the amount of valuable insights in his screeds is quite negligible.

 

[rmgill]

Sometimes stu gives good info. Then, he discounts or contradicts it because it counters THE MESSAGE.

[Steven P Allen]

I think the topic is inherently flawed:  there is no long any such entity as "the West in general." 

[sunday]

41 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Sometimes stu gives good info. Then, he discounts or contradicts it because it counters THE MESSAGE.

More seldom than sometimes, but in any case it is not worth the bother to waddle through what he thinks as brilliant prose.

Edited April 6 by sunday

[futon]

3 hours ago, rmgill said:

No, its the idealism of being treated the way we treat our allies. 

Unequal tariffs aren't fair, and given the screaming about the US raising tariffs, if they're so awful and impolite, WHY ARE OUR ALLIES LEVYING THEM AGAINST US?
 

This is an attempt to address the damage that's been building in the US due to the tariffs on us. 

Again via grok:
 

 

What's the Japanese argument for 341 Yen per Kilogram after the 770,000 metric ton allowance? 

What about the 50% tariff on US Beef? 

I like a number of Japanese products. I like Hondas immensely. Other products likewise and even some foods stuffs. (I drank a ramune last night incidentally). But if Japan considers tariffs on Japanese goods into the US to be damaging, why can we not consider Japanese tariffs on US goods to also be damaging? 

それは公平ですか?

Well as I posted in this thread opening, I wanted to clarify if Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. are actually included in the export/import numbers. There's really no Japanese version of those in existance here except small competition with Amazon. Google and Microsft on the other hand have the monopoly on OS.

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/49297-whats-in-a-trade-balance/

Are they? Or are they in some sepsrate catagory?

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, rmgill said:

What's the Japanese argument for 341 Yen per Kilogram after the 770,000 metric ton allowance? 

What about the 50% tariff on US Beef? 

I like a number of Japanese products. I like Hondas immensely. Other products likewise and even some foods stuffs. (I drank a ramune last night incidentally). But if Japan considers tariffs on Japanese goods into the US to be damaging, why can we not consider Japanese tariffs on US goods to also be damaging? 

それは公平ですか?

Because they don't want their agricultural sector out of business, because serious countries fiercely protect this area of their economy, as self-sufficiency in food is a somewhat strategic goal.

They do it, you do it, the EU does it.

From what I've read the quota after which the 700% tariff kicks in wasn't even reached, similar situation as with Canadian 'gorillion' percent for milk. 

You seem to like Grok, let's see what Grok says:

Quote

As of the current date, April 06, 2025, Japan imposes no tariffs (0%) on cars imported from the United States. This applies to passenger vehicles under standard trade conditions, such as those governed by the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (effective January 1, 2020), which eliminated tariffs on most U.S. automotive imports into Japan. Historically, Japan has maintained a zero-tariff policy on car imports from the U.S., contrasting with the U.S., which applies a 2.5% tariff on Japanese passenger cars and a 25% tariff on light trucks (commonly known as the "Chicken Tax").

While Japan does not levy tariffs, other factors like strict vehicle safety and emissions standards, right-hand drive preferences, and a competitive domestic market can affect the practicality of importing U.S. cars. However, these are not tariff-related barriers.

So, zero percent tariff on US cars, the Japanese are simply not interested in them. On the other hand it's the US that puts tariffs on Japanese cars, including 25% on pickups (which is AFAIK applied to all pickups produced outside of the US, not just Japan). 

[futon]

BTW, Japan and the EU also have signed a trade agreement. Since then, I've seen some Mercedes on the roads. 

...

日本は上半期、2万5691台を登録した。前年同期比は0.4％増と、2年連続で前年実績を上回った。輸入車ブランドの販売台数首位を維持している。

...

https://s.response.jp/article/2024/07/12/383970.html

[futon]

The global average of GDP per capita is about 20,000 USD on PPP basis. About 13,000 USD on nominal basis. How is a country like those in ASEAN supposed to have balanced trade when the purchasing power is radically lower than that in the US?

[futon]

Maybe more Americans should study Japanese than Chinese if they want to be successful in the Japanese car market. They'll need to make cars that cater to Japanese roads as well. American version of the small Kei class cars.

Edited April 6 by futon

[futon]

4 hours ago, rmgill said:

No, its the idealism of being treated the way we treat our allies. 

Unequal tariffs aren't fair, and given the screaming about the US raising tariffs, if they're so awful and impolite, WHY ARE OUR ALLIES LEVYING THEM AGAINST US?
 

This is an attempt to address the damage that's been building in the US due to the tariffs on us. 

Again via grok:
 

 

What's the Japanese argument for 341 Yen per Kilogram after the 770,000 metric ton allowance? 

What about the 50% tariff on US Beef? 

I like a number of Japanese products. I like Hondas immensely. Other products likewise and even some foods stuffs. (I drank a ramune last night incidentally). But if Japan considers tariffs on Japanese goods into the US to be damaging, why can we not consider Japanese tariffs on US goods to also be damaging? 

それは公平ですか?

For US beef, maybe that could one if the loose ends to tie up. I did mention to you the other day that some tariffs, I was fine with. 

Japan is in CPTPP though. Other beef makers have the meat leg up.

As far as food goes, there's plenty of American. The McDonald's M is everywhere. Burger King is making recent gains. Total rice consumption in Japan has been shrinking anyway. But if it's rice, it has to be Japanese rice. The stickiness is different than American rice. So maybe the US can't make Japanese-style rice. Why have a gov official cry about that at a press conference? Why act like the shrilling media? McDonalds is here. Burger King is here. Dominoes and Starbucks.  The targeting on the rice example is a cheap shot and nothing else. Ramune for Coca Cola and Pepsi. Those are here. Costco is doing well here.

[seahawk]

Balanced trade is an illusion, considering the reasons for the US imbalance.

Why? You ask.

Well the reason is very simple .

1. raw materials and rare resources

Some countries have raw materials and rare resources that are needed for your own production or your own consumers are willing to pay a lot for them (diamonds, coffee). You can not replace them with local made products.

2. who actually benefits from the imports

A lot of imports from Asia for example are made by US companies. Products are made by cheap labour in those countries, but the profit actually goes to US companies. (Nike, Apple,...) In theory you can move the production to the US, but this will either make it more expensive (Nike) or reduce the profit margins for the US companies.

Then there is the third section of countries who are actually competitors, those should be slapped with hard tariffs. There is no reason for consumers to buy a German car and not an American car.

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Well, they did. To Mauritius.

One more major event in the international arena he seems to have missed reading in his alt right blogposts. Even Trump thought it was a good idea.

 

12 hours ago, sunday said:

I am not scared of long texts that do not make any sense. I am merely tired, disgusted, and even repulsed by them.

Fortunately for @futon, his news about the Asia-Pacific region are valuable.

Unfortunately for @Stuart Galbraith, the amount of valuable insights in his screeds is quite negligible.

 

Sorry sunday, ill be sure to reduce my opinions to a microdot in future so you dont spend all day reading them.

[rmgill]

45 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

One more major event in the international arena he seems to have missed reading in his alt right blogposts. Even Trump thought it was a good idea.

I figure since we still had aircraft operating there nothing had changed. 
 

Some of us have jobs, and lives and do other things. 

45 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sorry sunday, ill be sure to reduce my opinions to a microdot in future so you dont spend all day reading them.

Instead of shrinking the font size, try looking for a consistent position and moral stance. 

[sunday]

Stuart is no Tolstoi, and I would know, as I do have read War and Peace, and Anna Karenina.

[rmgill]

He’s the inverse of Douglas Adams. 
Adams could say a lot with a few words. 
 

‘The Vogon ships hung in the air in exactly the way that bricks don’t.’

 

 

[futon]

China's counter tariffs reach max.

China will lift the additional tariffs on products imported from the US to 125 percent from 84 percent, effective from April 12, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced Friday.

Given that there is no longer any possibility of market acceptance for US goods exported to China under the current tariff levels, if the US side subsequently continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, the Chinese side will ignore it, according to the commission.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1331928.shtml