Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Mighty_Zuk]

24 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You know what confirmation bias is, right? Its assuming tomorrow is going to be exactly like yesterday and the day before. Please, I humbly invite you to read up on the CIA's response to Exercise Able Archer and see the problems inherent in that thinking. Alright, even more pointedly, go and read up on October 7th 1973 and October 7th 2023.

Even now, you still cant take on board the inherent dangers of underestimating oponents, not least when there are so goddamn many of them, and your primary security depends on a senile old man who has difficulty remembering where the toilet is.

Where did I ever underestimate them? 

Jeez, I could go on for 50 pages about why the axis are such a huge threat and one sentence about why they could also be overestimated and why panic isn't helpful and you'll choose to pick on that one. 

24 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im always on the side of Israeli security, but this, this is the equivalent of throwing petrol over yourself, just to prove you are fireproof. And for me, how about finishing one endless bloody war before starting another one?

Yes the age old Jewish conspiracy to establish an entire axis against Israel hell bent on destroying it, just so Israel could attack in Tehran which it did regardless. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

So Im what, im an antisemite now, just because I think Netanyahu is more motivated by remaining in power, than he is the hostages or the security of his nation? It wasnt so long ago you were saying exactly the same thing.

And ill say it again, you take on Iran, then you are really going to a huge regional conflict that is unlikely to be in anyones interests. You want to read that the wrong way, be my gues.

[Markus Becker]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its like everyone has mentally airbrushed 2006 out of their conciousness. Yes, I accept Hezbollah are disorganized, but that doesnt mean on a unit level they are going to be a rabble. Their leaders  probably didnt warrant pagers.

There is something inherently stupid about doing precisely what your enemies want you to do.

And that's why turning the pressure down now is a bad idea. As for 2006, how relevant that still is remains to be seen. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

@Stuart Galbraith The operation revealed today by the IDF, which I linked for you in my previous comments, contains evidence of some of Radwan's occupation of Galilee plans. It was essentially supposed to be an October 7th on steroids, hoping to take even several medium to large cities. That's what the IDF essentially thwarted. 

 

Now I want to touch on Iran's telegraphed  plan to attack Israel today. Israel's arsenal relies primarily on air launched munitions. This is mostly a cost consideration, but it provides other advantages. However one disadvantage is speed. An MRBM is going to hit its targets in a matter of minutes. Jets, however, will need to fly for a long time until they release their munitions. Interdicting an MRBM launch, then, becomes a question of how far ahead can the IDF recognize plans to launch, and whether Iran chooses to combine the attack with slower munitions that would give significant preparation time as was in April. 

Israel would want to pre-empt the launches to save itself the huge expenses of BMD interceptors. 

 

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So Im what, im an antisemite now

No. Please read carefully what I'm saying.

4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

just because I think Netanyahu is more motivated by remaining in power, than he is the hostages or the security of his nation? It wasnt so long ago you were saying exactly the same thing.

If by not so long ago you mean literally just a couple minutes ago - yeah. But I can actually see that the world isn't one dimensional. Nuances matter.

5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And ill say it again, you take on Iran, then you are really going to a huge regional conflict that is unlikely to be in anyones interests.

Dismantling Iran's MIC and other assets now is definitely in Israel's interest. It's also definitely NOT in Iran's interest, which is exactly the point.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

And that's why turning the pressure down now is a bad idea. As for 2006, how relevant that still is remains to be seen. 

'Keeping the pressure up' is a tactic. Its not a winning strategy. And you know what, Id be delighted if I could detect the heavy hand of Kissinger or even Tallyrand behind this series of wars, but there isnt. There is just a crook, desperate not to go to jail, and that is why  I distrust it, and his motivation for it.

You all want to hitch your cart to this fiasco, be my guest, but count me out.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

'Keeping the pressure up' is a tactic. Its not a winning strategy. And you know what, Id be delighted if I could detect the heavy hand of Kissinger or even Tallyrand behind this series of wars, but there isnt. There is just a crook, desperate not to go to jail, and that is why  I distrust it, and his motivation for it.

You all want to hitch your cart to this fiasco, be my guest, but count me out.

You can't say you want to see the hostages released, and then discard the lives of all Israelis at the same time. It's incoherent. 

The people of Israel are united in their support for the current policy vs Hezbollah and Iran. 

 

Observe the rhetoric of chief of Israel's Labor party:

 

Alma map showing attack sectors for Radwan

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Read also the tweet quoted by Mr Fox here. It shows evidence of the SEAD campaign.

In April, I wrote after the Iranian attack how Israel could choose to retaliate. Among the approach options, I listed a potential corridor over hostile territory, where various heavy aircraft could fly to support the mission. The way forward would have to be paved by the first wave, destroying all air defenses in the vicinity.

Alternatively, I could also misinterpret it and it could be the IDF paving the way for flanking operations in Lebanon via Syria, or improved accessibility for less protected drones over Syrian airspace.

 

[TonyE]

Iranian missile attack seem to be underway right now.

[Mighty_Zuk]

@Stuart Galbraith Today we're seeing for the first time in over a month - significant public criticism leveled at Netanyahu. Not because of the costs of war, but because of the massive infrastructure revealed on the Israel-Lebanon border built to facilitate an October 7th-like attack, and people are asking Netanyahu - "Why did you not attack sooner? Why did we wait all these years?"

Not "why are you pulling us into regional conflicts?"

This is one thing you don't understand about Israelis. Decades of conflicts make the leftists look like total war hawks next to European rightoids.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 minute ago, TonyE said:

Iranian missile attack seem to be underway right now.

Over 100 missiles. Are all MRBMs? Likely.

Here's what OSINTers won't tell you though: I'm hearing aircraft nonstop over my city.

 

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And if Iran fires missiles at them, politically it might become an imperative to 'punish' the Iranians, particularly if the Americans object to them bombing Iran again. It looks and smells to me like a train wreck. I hope im wrong for all those Israeli conscripts, but my spidy sense says, no, this time im not.

We'll see what happens.  

Iran obtained plenty of information with its last strike.  Not only how large a missile and drone force beyond what they sent was required to saturate Israeli defenses, but also where and how American and Western jets were operating in defense of the Israelis.    If the Iranians repeat their last attack, or less than, then it's a sign they're trying to get out of the situation with a symbolic retaliation.    If, instead, they significantly increase the size of attack, and start hitting airbases that house Western jets, then that's a different signal.

Edited October 1, 2024 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

So far all reported targets are civilian. Interceptions over Tel Aviv.

[RETAC21]

Terror attack in Tel Aviv:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

54 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

You can't say you want to see the hostages released, and then discard the lives of all Israelis at the same time. It's incoherent. 

The people of Israel are united in their support for the current policy vs Hezbollah and Iran. 

 

Observe the rhetoric of chief of Israel's Labor party:

 

Alma map showing attack sectors for Radwan

 

How are you risking lives if they have already been evacuated?

The ONLY lives being risked are conscripts being sent in to the hellhole of Southern Lebanon. They are your citizens too, right?

[Stuart Galbraith]

21 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

@Stuart Galbraith Today we're seeing for the first time in over a month - significant public criticism leveled at Netanyahu. Not because of the costs of war, but because of the massive infrastructure revealed on the Israel-Lebanon border built to facilitate an October 7th-like attack, and people are asking Netanyahu - "Why did you not attack sooner? Why did we wait all these years?"

Not "why are you pulling us into regional conflicts?"

This is one thing you don't understand about Israelis. Decades of conflicts make the leftists look like total war hawks next to European rightoids.

So what makes it a good idea now?

I tell you one thing I understand, tactics are no substitute for strategy, and military conflict for political solution. There is no solution here, other than point scoring and endless war, and its not going to work.

And by all means, classify me as a leftist idiot, but I warrant Ill still end up being right.

 

Edited October 1, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So Im what, im an antisemite now, just because I think Netanyahu is more motivated by remaining in power, than he is the hostages or the security of his nation? It wasnt so long ago you were saying exactly the same thing.

I think it's as much that as the fact that Biden is a drooling idiot and the inmates are running the asylum in Washington.  

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

'Keeping the pressure up' is a tactic. Its not a winning strategy. And you know what, Id be delighted if I could detect the heavy hand of Kissinger or even Tallyrand behind this series of wars, but there isnt. There is just a crook, desperate not to go to jail, and that is why  I distrust it, and his motivation for it.

You all want to hitch your cart to this fiasco, be my guest, but count me out.

Killing everyone and let Big A sort it out isn't an option for Israel. Unlike their enemies they are a civilized people. And any notions of diplomacy miss the point that diplomacy can't work with savages like the Mullahs. 

So tactics it is. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Just now, Markus Becker said:

Killing everyone and let Big A sort it out isn't an option for Israel. Unlike their enemies they are a civilized people. And any notions of diplomacy miss the point that diplomacy can't work with savages like the Mullahs. 

So tactics it is. 

Tactics was 1967. Touch and go survival was 1973. Strategy was the 1977 peace treaty, and there was plenty of Israelis that didnt want that either.

Netanyahu had the opportunity for a ceasefire in Lebanon. He blew it up. he had the opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza. he blew it up. He had  an A bomb halt in Iran. He blew it up. Call me irish, but is there a picture forming here?

 

[glenn239]

20 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

So far all reported targets are civilian. Interceptions over Tel Aviv.

There's no way to tell at this time what's Hezbollah and what's Iranian though, is there?

[crazyinsane105]

1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Tactics was 1967. Touch and go survival was 1973. Strategy was the 1977 peace treaty, and there was plenty of Israelis that didnt want that either.

Netanyahu had the opportunity for a ceasefire in Lebanon. He blew it up. he had the opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza. he blew it up. He had  an A bomb halt in Iran. He blew it up. Call me irish, but is there a picture forming here?

 

My bigger fear is that all this will cause the Shia Sunni rift between extremist groups to close. And there are indications this is happening, with the recent reports of the Houthis wanting to give al Shabab anti ship missiles 

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So Im what, im an antisemite now...

Not by any sane standards. OTOH by your own standards you are.

[Mighty_Zuk]

5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

How are you risking lives if they have already been evacuated?

The ONLY lives being risked are conscripts being sent in to the hellhole of Southern Lebanon. They are your citizens too, right?

Evacuated? Who's evacuated? Only the border towns within ATGM range of Hezbollah. They fired almost 10,000 rockets into Israel. Not a day goes by without an alarm in my city. I have a pile of rocket and missile debris at home. About 2 million Israelis would have to be evacuated if Israel chose to evacuate those within rocket range. But the catch is that Hezbollah has missiles capable of hitting every point in Israel. And the Radwan plans of invasion encompassed up to and south of Haifa. Look at a map, see where Haifa is.

The soldiers going into Lebanon are in a very limited operation with little expected resistance. I repeat that this is not like 2006. Hezbollah's border infrastructure has been methodically dismantled for close to a year.

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

So what makes it a good idea now?

The fact that we're proactively dismantling the enemy's ability to mount such attacks, rather than waiting for them to attack like we did until October 6th.

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I tell you one thing I understand, tactics are no substitute for strategy, and military conflict for political solution.

You don't understand the strategy. It doesn't mean it doesn't exist. You should not conflate the two. 

And the issue is you're asserting as a fact that there is no strategy - but not actually asking any questions to set up a debate around it. I wrote a lot about the strategy here. Perhaps you missed or dismissed it.

2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

There's no way to tell at this time what's Hezbollah and what's Iranian though, is there?

The public can wait until the IDF announces. They have all the data. But right now IDF is busy briefing people on how to take safety measures, not post op analysis. Be patient, as we all are.

 

[RETAC21]

Tel Aviv hit, or not, plenty of interceptions but I don't see any explosions on the ground

 

[RETAC21]

Well, no, plenty of impacts:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

My bigger fear is that all this will cause the Shia Sunni rift between extremist groups to close. And there are indications this is happening, with the recent reports of the Houthis wanting to give al Shabab anti ship missiles 

My fear is a two prong attack. Closing not just Gulf of Aden, but gulf of Hormuz. Then they all sit back pissing themselves, as the price of oil goes through the roof. Even Russia would just absolutely LOVE that to happen.

Meanwhile, the RN is falling to bits because it cant put any submarines to sea, the fleet auxillarys have no crew, and we have been busily been getting rid of minesweepers to replace them with unproven rpv's. What could possibly go wrong?