Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Josh]

32 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yeah, you hold that thought and remember it.

You still have masses of reservists called up. They have done numerous tours of Gaza, the war has been ongoing for nearly a year, they are tired, probably fed up, their equipment probably wants refurbishment or even replacement in some cases. Now you want to embark on an entirely new war against guys that have seen their buddies blown up, on the very terrain they have been preparing for 20 years to receive you, in the very place you fought last time nearly turned into a debacle.

Am I missing something? Please, tell me Im missing something.

I think wasting Lik Nas was a big pick me up for the Israelis, capping two very successful weeks. I suspect casualties will be heavy despite all of damage done to Hezbollah - I think individual platoon sized units likely have preset orders and weapons caches. But this is the best opportunity the IDF will ever have for a ground op, so I can see why Israel would go for it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

White House is reporting that Iran is preparing a missile strike upon Israel.

[Josh]

21 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

White House is reporting that Iran is preparing a missile strike upon Israel.

They have a pretty good track record the last several years. I suspect it is true.

[crazyinsane105]

Israel said commando and paratroop units launched raids into Lebanon on Tuesday as part of a "limited" ground incursion, while Iran-backed Hezbollah said it had fired a barrage of missiles into Israel, including at its spy agency near Tel Aviv.

The raids by Israeli troops in southern Lebanon that began overnight were limited and went only a short distance over the border, an Israeli security official said on Tuesday, adding that no direct clashes with Hezbollah fighters were reported
 

Doesn’t seem like this is intended to be a large operation of any kind

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 minutes ago, Josh said:

They have a pretty good track record the last several years. I suspect it is true.

If you think about it, they figured out strategic warning from the USSR by observing preparations for missile launch. I myself have read a report of satellite imagery in 1983, of a photo of an SS20 battery setting up at a launch location. They can probably do that in real time by now.

Well, Bibi got his justification for the attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. And when that happens, we probably will be living in a whole new world.

[TrustMe]

16 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Israel said commando and paratroop units launched raids into Lebanon on Tuesday as part of a "limited" ground incursion, while Iran-backed Hezbollah said it had fired a barrage of missiles into Israel, including at its spy agency near Tel Aviv.

The raids by Israeli troops in southern Lebanon that began overnight were limited and went only a short distance over the border, an Israeli security official said on Tuesday, adding that no direct clashes with Hezbollah fighters were reported
 

Doesn’t seem like this is intended to be a large operation of any kind

Expect to see more attacks at night. All Western armies will attack at night to begin with to magnify the night vision technogy factor compared to our enemies.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2024 by TrustMe

[urbanoid]

4 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If you think about it, they figured out strategic warning from the USSR by observing preparations for missile launch. I myself have read a report of satellite imagery in 1983, of a photo of an SS20 battery setting up at a launch location. They can probably do that in real time by now.

Well, Bibi got his justification for the attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. And when that happens, we probably will be living in a whole new world.

Ah, you're such a drama queen. Take the nothing-ever-happens-pill.

[RETAC21]

6 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ah, you're such a drama queen. Take the nothing-ever-happens-pill.

Bombing nuclear facilities is so... Israeli:

[urbanoid]

Oh, I meant the 'whole new world' part, not the bombing itself.

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ah, you're such a drama queen. Take the nothing-ever-happens-pill.

You remember when I kept banging on about Putin and in the months leading up, about Ukraine? This isnt the Siebel ferry monger you are talking to here mister!

 

 

[crazyinsane105]

3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You remember when I kept banging on about Putin and in the months leading up, about Ukraine? This isnt the Siebel ferry monger you are talking to here mister!

 

 

I’ve come into complete agreement with many things you’ve said about certain conflicts, and I’m agreeing with you here that an expansive ground invasion into Lebanon, right now, will be a very very bad decision in the long run. 

[crazyinsane105]

27 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Expect to see more attacks at night. All Western armies will attack at night to begin with to magnify the night vision technogy factor compared to our enemies.

 

 

Hezbullah has pretty decent night vision capability for a number of their troops and ATGMs, they have had it since 2006

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yeah, you hold that thought and remember it.

You still have masses of reservists called up. They have done numerous tours of Gaza, the war has been ongoing for nearly a year, they are tired, probably fed up, their equipment probably wants refurbishment or even replacement in some cases.

Which is why in my analysis I wrote that a full invasion into Lebanon, e.g. up to Beirut or Baalbek, would make no sense from a cost efficiency standpoint. But a limited one south of the Litani would make some sense and may be net beneficial.

One of the best ways to assess the actual threat an enemy poses to Israel during wartime, is to look at the homefront command's instructions. Over the past month they've gradually relaxed the restrictions imposed last October, which means the threat Hezbollah poses to northern communities is reducing.

Hezbollah hasn't conducted serious ATGM and short range drone attacks on Israeli border communities for a while now.

Economically, helping people return to their homes sooner is better than another round of relief for reservists. Although it's worth saying that a much smaller amount of reservists was called up for Lebanon than those called up last year for Gaza.

You're not really saying anything I haven't covered extensively in the past. But you're not connecting the dots.

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Now you want to embark on an entirely new war against guys that have seen their buddies blown up, on the very terrain they have been preparing for 20 years to receive you, in the very place you fought last time nearly turned into a debacle.

What was, isn't what will be. The goals of the war in 2006 were different. The level of expertise, technology, and training in the IDF was much lower at the time, and in many ways the IDF was fighting an enemy it didn't bother preparing for. 

It's really an apples to complex combined arms maneuvers comparison.

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Am I missing something? Please, tell me Im missing something.

Yes. First, you're fixated on the hostage situation in Gaza as being the core of the conflict. It's certainly what started it, it allowed Hamas to persist, but in an 8 front war - it's really just the first act of a play.

Hamas is one part of an extensive array of militant groups controlled by Iran. Although the smallest and shortest reaching one, it certainly outperformed them all. But it doesn't mean Israel gets to set its sights off Iran.

Iran and its other proxies along 7 other fronts made sure to keep Israel busy every day since October 7th. Until Israel decided to retaliate last month, that is. Their economical pressure got Israel's economy badly hurt and Israel was with its back against the wall despite Hamas being effectively neutralized.

 

Second, you fail to see causality. A month ago, the axis had a lot of options to use against Israel and indeed were using many of them. But Israel then dismantled some. This improved the overall security situation. But then you decided to call on Israel to stop, ignoring the fact that proactive action resolved security threats, and reactive action created them. A lot of the calls to cease fire came not when Hezbollah started firing rockets into Israel, or when Houthis and Iran were firing MRBMs. They came when Israel started responding.

You don't stop when things start going your way. That's what your enemies want. Instead you push forward.

 

Third, you fail to see the complexity and choose to observe things from a familiar lens. In this case you're repeating the supposed similarity to 2006, but in fact there is very little to no similarity between the two.

You fail to see the political context. I'll give you an example - during the war in Gaza, not a single action made by the government, went without scrutiny. Everything criticized. I was among the fiercest critics. I believed and still believe that the foremost motive for Netanyahu was political survival and I believe it was in Netanyahu's nature to put unnecessary roadblocks in the hostage deal. Yet every action vs the rest of the axis right now is praised, as Netanyahu seemingly decided to let the IDF run things more autonomously - exactly what a proper government should do. This is a necessary nuance in the political aspect.

On the kinetic side of things, this time Israel was on the initiative and was not caught with its pants down. It also had many years of sabotage operations implemented in the Lebanon front and other fronts, and the way of waging war has subsequently changed drastically.

There are many more nuances here and it's really so much easier to say where 2006 and 2024 are dissimilar rather than similar.

 

Another example in perfect timing: IDF's ground incursion started many months ago and resulted in significant degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities on the border. Current operations inside Lebanon are consequently met with no resistance. I remind you that I posted here many times about Hezbollah's Radwan force being specifically targeted throughout last year, with the intent to pave the way in case the IDF had to go in.

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

33 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well, Bibi got his justification for the attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. And when that happens, we probably will be living in a whole new world.

Where are all those WW3 prophecies we were told like a dozen times already regarding Israeli action vs Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran?

They're respectable foes, but when Israel unleashes its armed forces and capabilities against them, they're in many ways just paper tigers.

Easy to underestimate, even easier to overestimate.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I’ve come into complete agreement with many things you’ve said about certain conflicts, and I’m agreeing with you here that an expansive ground invasion into Lebanon, right now, will be a very very bad decision in the long run. 

And if Iran fires missiles at them, politically it might become an imperative to 'punish' the Iranians, particularly if the Americans object to them bombing Iran again. It looks and smells to me like a train wreck. I hope im wrong for all those Israeli conscripts, but my spidy sense says, no, this time im not.

Ill be delighed in two weeks time to admit I got it totally wrong.

[TrustMe]

5 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Hezbullah has pretty decent night vision capability for a number of their troops and ATGMs, they have had it since 2006

You can buy night vision goggles on Amazon for £30. The ones that Israel have are state of the art.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Where are all those WW3 prophecies we were told like a dozen times already regarding Israeli action vs Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran?

They're respectable foes, but when Israel unleashes its armed forces and capabilities against them, they're in many ways just paper tigers.

Easy to underestimate, even easier to overestimate.

You know what confirmation bias is, right? Its assuming tomorrow is going to be exactly like yesterday and the day before. Please, I humbly invite you to read up on the CIA's response to Exercise Able Archer and see the problems inherent in that thinking. Alright, even more pointedly, go and read up on October 7th 1973 and October 7th 2023.

Even now, you still cant take on board the inherent dangers of underestimating oponents, not least when there are so goddamn many of them, and your primary security depends on a senile old man who has difficulty remembering where the toilet is.

Im always on the side of Israeli security, but this, this is the equivalent of throwing petrol over yourself, just to prove you are fireproof. And for me, how about finishing one endless bloody war before starting another one?

[urbanoid]

5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You know what confirmation bias is, right? Its assuming tomorrow is going to be exactly like yesterday and the day before. Please, I humbly invite you to read up on the CIA's response to Exercise Able Archer and see the problems inherent in that thinking. Alright, even more pointedly, go and read up on October 7th 1973 and October 7th 2023.

Even now, you still cant take on board the inherent dangers of underestimating oponents, not least when there are so goddamn many of them, and your primary security depends on a senile old man who has difficulty remembering where the toilet is.

Im always on the side of Israeli security, but this, this is the equivalent of throwing petrol over yourself, just to prove you are fireproof. And for me, how about finishing one endless bloody war before starting another one?

It's actually one war?

[Josh]

18 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Hezbullah has pretty decent night vision capability for a number of their troops and ATGMs, they have had it since 2006

The IDF probably still has a superior capability, especially in UAVs.

Edited October 1, 2024 by Josh

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

It's actually one war?

 I got told that destroying Hezbollah wont affect the Gazan war a damn. That being the case, its clearly two different wars at the same time, not the same one. Two different forces, two different places, two different motivations.

[crazyinsane105]

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

The IDF probably still has a superior capability, especially in UAVs.

Oh no doubt, but Hezbullah has Kornet and their own knockoffs that can detect man size targets about 5 km away. Which is good enough for many engagements 

16 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

You can buy night vision goggles on Amazon for £30. The ones that Israel have are state of the art.

Hezbullah has what is deemed good enough for many engagements. It’s not like they will be fighting completely blind at night either 

[urbanoid]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

 I got told that destroying Hezbollah wont affect the Gazan war a damn. That being the case, its clearly two different wars at the same time, not the same one. Two different forces, two different places, two different motivations.

That's right, destroying Hezbollah won't affect the Gazan war, but destroying or even greatly weakening either of them will absolutely affect their puppermasters in Tehran. Ultimately it's the Israel-Iran war, mostly not yet direct, Hez and Hamas are just tools.

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

That's right, destroying Hezbollah won't affect the Gazan war, but destroying or even greatly weakening either of them will absolutely affect their puppermasters in Tehran. Ultimately it's the Israel-Iran war, mostly not yet direct, Hez and Hamas are just tools.

Then way talk about it as if its the same war? They arent allies, there is limited linkage, there is no proof that even destroying Hezbollah which is unlikely to happen is going to mean a damn to Hamas. So why pretend its the same war?

 

[urbanoid]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

Then way talk about it as if its the same war? They arent allies, there is limited linkage, there is no proof that even destroying Hezbollah which is unlikely to happen is going to mean a damn to Hamas. So why pretend its the same war?

 

I literally wrote about Iran in the latter part of the sentence. Sorry, I can't convey it in any simpler way. 

[Josh]

7 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 I got told that destroying Hezbollah wont affect the Gazan war a damn. That being the case, it’s clearly two different wars at the same time, not the same one. Two different forces, two different places, two different motivations.

Hezbollah started fighting for Hamas. Now Iran is going to start fighting for Hezbollah. You can throw Houthi and the Blowfish on top of that too. It’s a piecemeal war by the entire axis of resistance. I bet a lot of their leaders are asking themselves why everyone did not just go all in a year ago when they all had a lot more resources to use. Those that are still alive, that is.