Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Stuart are you completely oblivious to the fact there's a war going on in northern Israel for almost a year and about 100,000 can't go home because of that?

How is that related in any way to the hostages? It's like you're hearing stuff about Hezbollah these past 2 weeks but can't seem to understand it's Lebanon and not Gaza.

Im fully aware of it, and im also fully aware that the ONLY way you can make Hezbollah shut down is to stop bombing Gaza. And you cant stop bombing Gaza till you get the hostages back. Again, all this is because of the hostages. Until that is resolved, nothing is resolved.

Hezbollah has always been a problem, it will always be a problem. And unless you are willing to commit to a scale invasion of Lebanon and try to push them out (which didnt work in 2006 and I guess will not work now), at a time when you STILL have to finish another war in Gaza, then I see no prospects of stopping them rocketing you. I dont like it, I condemn it, but this is a simple fact, because Iran wont stop supplying them with ammunition, and some of it will survive long enough to be fired at you.

In short, this looks like a solution, but like most military solutions, its just a tin roof on a fireworks factory. its not going to contain anything.

[seahawk]

Hezbollah today has more strategic depth than it had back in 2006. In theory they can not only fall back towards the North in Lebanon, they can even fall back to Syria now. Sure if Israel moves into Southern Lebanon they will probably destroy a lot of infrastructure of Hezbollah, even a healthy part of their short range rockets arsenal, but if Israel can destroy Hezbollah as a force, is completely the decision of Hezbollah. If they stand and fight, they will die. If they just delay and avoid, they will survive.

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 hours ago, lucklucky said:

That is ridiculous.  So for you the only strategy is getting more hostages or worse in the future. Following your thinking neither Hamas or Heezbollah would be degraded instead they would be stronger.

I said nothing about not destroying Hamas. I said 'Get the Hostages back'. As you well know, Israel has plenty of methods of dealing with its enemies, other than 2000lb bombs. So why not use them.

Here is the news. Hezbollah are NOT going to be destroyed. They will inevitably rearm, and there is nothing that will stop that. Boots on the ground might. Is israel willing to pay that price? I frankly doubt it.

Destroying Hamas, the price to be paid for that is ALL the hostages being shot in the back of the head after suffering in darkness for a year, just like those unfortunates a couple of weeks back. Are you willing to pay that price? Because Im not. This fantasy that all the hostages will be released and Hamas defeated in a glorious military victory is fantasy, and one people simply must stop indulging.

You make any deal, you promise anything. You get them all back. And then you spend the next 20 years, 40 years if need been seeing how long it took for justice to reach Nasrallah, searching out the ones whom were their murderers, their captors, their rapists, and you kill them all.

Thats the Israeli way. Not this kabuki theatre thats laid on purely to keep Benjamin Netanyahu in power.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Hezbollah today has more strategic depth than it had back in 2006. In theory they can not only fall back towards the North in Lebanon, they can even fall back to Syria now. Sure if Israel moves into Southern Lebanon they will probably destroy a lot of infrastructure of Hezbollah, even a healthy part of their short range rockets arsenal, but if Israel can destroy Hezbollah as a force, is completely the decision of Hezbollah. If they stand and fight, they will die. If they just delay and avoid, they will survive.

Heck, the way Erdogan is, I wouldnt even put it past them falling back on fucking Turkey, he is so goddamn cracked these days.

You are right, Hezbollah cant be destroyed, short of destroying Iran, and thats even more intractable. The idea that somehow there is going to be victory through applied airpower is very interesting. Im not aware its ever defeated an insurgent army without boots on the ground, and unless they somehow plan to have the lebanonese Army doing the fighting for them, it simply cant work.

Hezbollah have been disorganized. Well done. Now the thing that might have stopped the rockets, a ceasefire linked to Gaza, simply cant work because all the people required to organize it are now dead. And at that point, you realise that this isnt really about driving Gaza to the negotiating table at all, still less about stopping the rockets. Its Netanyahu showing Israeli military power. Fair enough, I dont object to that, but lets not mistake it for a working strategy, because it simply isnt one.

[Markus Becker]

Another one bites the dust. 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

25 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im fully aware of it, and im also fully aware that the ONLY way you can make Hezbollah shut down is to stop bombing Gaza.

How did you come up with this nonsense? At best you're inflating one politician's dubious claim that a deal in Gaza can be leveraged to stop the war in the north but that's completely ignoring causality. Lots of baseless claims were made last year.

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And you cant stop bombing Gaza till you get the hostages back.

Israel is no longer bombing Gaza. Hasn't been in months.

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Hezbollah has always been a problem, it will always be a problem. And unless you are willing to commit to a scale invasion of Lebanon and try to push them out (which didnt work in 2006 and I guess will not work now), at a time when you STILL have to finish another war in Gaza, then I see no prospects of stopping them rocketing you.

The goal in 2006 wasn't to get rid of Hezbollah. The IDF had to cut short any efforts on much smaller goals because the US convinced it to.

A full scale invasion of Lebanon would certainly not be necessary for that.

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You are right, Hezbollah cant be destroyed, short of destroying Iran, and thats even more intractable. The idea that somehow there is going to be victory through applied airpower is very interesting. Im not aware its ever defeated an insurgent army without boots on the ground, and unless they somehow plan to have the lebanonese Army doing the fighting for them, it simply cant work.

Hezbollah's survival in the long term depends a lot on the good will of the Lebanese. I don't think you understand quite how Hezbollah are hated throughout the middle east. They are known as the genociders of the Syrians, Palestinians, and Lebanese. 

Contrary to popular belief, there are armed groups in Lebanon that can threaten Hezbollah. But none that have the courage to do so. Certainly not fight as effectively as Hezbollah. But with Israeli close support they can do it.

The SLA between 1982-2000 failed to get rid of Hezbollah because the SLA had popularity issues and Hezbollah were popular. That's no longer the case. Quite the opposite actually.

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Hezbollah have been disorganized. Well done. Now the thing that might have stopped the rockets, a ceasefire linked to Gaza, simply cant work because all the people required to organize it are now dead. And at that point, you realise that this isnt really about driving Gaza to the negotiating table at all, still less about stopping the rockets.

Now you're getting it. Now you're getting that Hamas and Hezbollah don't give two shits about each other and will each do as they please.

[Josh]

9 hours ago, seahawk said:

I can see the logic behind this, but why is Israel then bombing  Hezbollah? The number of rockets they fired towards Israel must be considered symbolic.

100,000 people are displaced in Israel because of the rockets, so it is not merely symbolic. Also you do not have half a war with someone; they are either shooting at you or they aren’t. Better question: why did Hezbollah get involved in the first place? It looks like a rather severe miscalculation in hindsight, but then I guess no one could have guessed how completely compromised Hezbollahs communications were.

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

100,000 people are displaced in Israel because of the rockets, so it is not merely symbolic. Also you do not have half a war with someone; they are either shooting at you or they aren’t. Better question: why did Hezbollah get involved in the first place? It looks like a rather severe miscalculation in hindsight, but then I guess no one could have guessed how completely compromised Hezbollahs communications were.

Had they just stuck to destroying the unmanned surveillance posts around the border and not done rocket attacks which have displaced 100K Israelis, it’s unlikely the Israelis would react this forcefully.

The issue is that regardless of how the Israelis do react, Hezbullah can still make life very difficult for northern Israel. Of course the Israelis have dealt Hezbullah a pretty big blow, but I am unsure if the end result will be a permanent end to hostilities.

Edited September 30, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[Mighty_Zuk]

Patience.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Had they just stuck to destroying the unmanned surveillance posts around the border and not done rocket attacks which have displaced 100K Israelis, it’s unlikely the Israelis would react this forcefully.

The issue is that regardless of how the Israelis do react, Hezbullah can still make life very difficult for northern Israel. Of course the Israelis have dealt Hezbullah a pretty big blow, but I am unsure if the end result will be a permanent end to hostilities.

In the other hand, if Israel already had to evacuate the northern border any way, how much worse could Hezbollah make it?

The biggest threat in my mind would be precision attacks against the airbases, because this is the very center of Israel’s military power. But Hezbollah seems unable to achieve that now, or at least yet.

Theres really no reason not to fully engage Hezbollah at this point. Whatever decisions or events got both parties to this point, Hezbollah will never be this weak and disorganized again. And Hezbollah is Iran’s primary deterrent against Israel just blowing things up inside Iran, so there is a lot of strategy value to mowing the lawn even if the weeds are going to sprout up again in a few years.

[crazyinsane105]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

In the other hand, if Israel already had to evacuate the northern border any way, how much worse could Hezbollah make it?

The biggest threat in my mind would be precision attacks against the airbases, because this is the very center of Israel’s military power. But Hezbollah seems unable to achieve that now, or at least yet.

Theres really no reason not to fully engage Hezbollah at this point. Whatever decisions or events got both parties to this point, Hezbollah will never be this weak and disorganized again. And Hezbollah is Iran’s primary deterrent against Israel just blowing things up inside Iran, so there is a lot of strategy value to mowing the lawn even if the weeds are going to sprout up again in a few years.

It would have made more sense, IMO, to have done the pager attacks with an immediate air blitz and a swift ground invasion. They could have hit Hezbullah hard in its own backyard, and then withdraw within a few weeks. Amount of infrastructure possibly destroyed would be significant. 

 

[Josh]

23 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

It would have made more sense, IMO, to have done the pager attacks with an immediate air blitz and a swift ground invasion. They could have hit Hezbullah hard in its own backyard, and then withdraw within a few weeks. Amount of infrastructure possibly destroyed would be significant. 

 

I cannot imagine Hezbollah has reconstituted its C&C anyway, but that was more my expectation as well.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

well, Israel couldn't be sure how successful this run was going to be.  Boots on the ground are always a big step up.  It appears that for once the Israelis are way inside their enemies' decision loop.  The judgement now is how far to push the momentum.  It'd be easy to go too far and yet not going far enough...  those types of things are what leaders get paid to do.  In the case the Israelis seen very determined.  There may yet be information that none of us have that they do.  Tehran has to be worried about being compromised at this point.  Their likely next move is no move at all, just wait it out.  Anything else is likely to get the ball rolling faster than Iran is ready for.

Letting Hezbollah get their bearings and grow new leadership into recently vacated posts can't be on Israel's to do list right now.  They're going to push.  We can only wait and see where and how hard.

[lucklucky]

 

[RETAC21]

Land invasion is on:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

I have a really bad feeling about this.

[Roman Alymov]

13 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Land invasion is on:

Pro-Rus TG is full of giggling, pointing out Iran is definitely taking the page out of Putin's book - the same lack of action. "Put on another four red flags of revenge, it will definitely help"(c)

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Yes. It's expected of someone on a military related forum to either be already knowledgeable on military subjects, or better yet - ask about things he doesn't understand.

The fighting in Gaza ended more than half a year ago.

Hamas is still in existence as of today, despite Israel's stated objective of annihilating it.  This does not bode well for prospects against Hezbollah, which is in a better position.

Quote

Or maybe Hezbollah was pummeled so hard and was denied the ability to fire at Israel with their launches being pre-empted, reducing volleys from thousands to tens or maybe a hundred rockets only per day, and Iran miscalculated Israel's response thinking it'd be ultra reactionary like it has been the past several decades til 2 weeks ago - that they figured it's best to cut the losses. 

We've no idea what Hezbollah is thinking, much of their leadership is new to the job.  But if I had to guess, they're probably trying to figure out what Iran's intentions are while recovering from damage inflicted.

Quote

There are no superpowers. The US effectively abandoned Ukraine and Israel and has started a process to reconcile with Russia and Iran and make them trade partners. There's no one to talk to.

The two superpowers being the USA and China.  Israel is currently making a pitch that four regional powers - Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt - need to acquire nuclear and hypersonic weapons.  This is a case where the global powers need to take charge.

Edited September 30, 2024 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

I'd be careful about reports of a ground incursion into Lebanon. The IDF is known to stage deceptive maneuvers. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Current reports indicate very limited maneuvers to dismantle observation posts, AT posts etc. Things that can be easily rebuilt. But what may be harder to rebuild are the tunnels. Still, it seems to me like such a limited operation would have its effects quickly diminished, so I conclude this is not the goal. But rather, I assume Israel may be gauging shifts in Lebanese public sentiment toward an incursion. Although more sympathetic to Israel than Hezbollah, they do have a long history of and thus worry about being occupied.

If Israel wants the Shi'ite population to be largely expelled to Syria, it must come from a careful balance of Israeli action displacing them and Lebanese refusal to take them in. The latter greatly depends on sentiment toward Israel.

[Markus Becker]

12 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I have a really bad feeling about this.

Yeah, the boogie man of the Mid East going up in flames might if isreal acts be exposed as fake again.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/israel-launches-limited-ground-operations-lebanon-war-hezbollah-terrorist-groups-continue

Biden called for a 'ceasefire now' before IDF ground operations began, Israeli didn't listen.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its like everyone has mentally airbrushed 2006 out of their conciousness. Yes, I accept Hezbollah are disorganized, but that doesnt mean on a unit level they are going to be a rabble. Their leaders  probably didnt warrant pagers.

There is something inherently stupid about doing precisely what your enemies want you to do.

[Mike1158]

Lebanese spokes person suggested they were not treating the Israeli action as an incurion but a limited goal reaction.

 

They also pointed out that Hexbollah are not wanted, asking for help from the UN etc to remove them.  They seem to be thinking that Israel are doing them a solid favour.

 

I have to agree.

 

Which nation will accept the Hamas and Hezbollah refugee's?

 

Source, Lebanese spokes person on the bleep bleep cee news today.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its like everyone has mentally airbrushed 2006 out of their conciousness. Yes, I accept Hezbollah are disorganized, but that doesnt mean on a unit level they are going to be a rabble. Their leaders  probably didnt warrant pagers.

There is something inherently stupid about doing precisely what your enemies want you to do.

You're rushing to conclusions based on past and likely irrelevant information.

IDF operations in Lebanon the past month have been incredibly calculated. I'd give them the benefit of the doubt. In the meantime, don't take MSM too seriously.

 

 

SEAD work reported in southern Syria.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, you hold that thought and remember it.

You still have masses of reservists called up. They have done numerous tours of Gaza, the war has been ongoing for nearly a year, they are tired, probably fed up, their equipment probably wants refurbishment or even replacement in some cases. Now you want to embark on an entirely new war against guys that have seen their buddies blown up, on the very terrain they have been preparing for 20 years to receive you, in the very place you fought last time nearly turned into a debacle.

Am I missing something? Please, tell me Im missing something.