Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[glenn239]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

I don’t think Hezbollah is getting new toys and I don’t think they are in any position to use them if they did. I know you want UAVs to master every military problem, but I think even you can acknowledge Hez is having its ass handed to it.

Looks to me like Israel has pulled the trigger on all its tricks, wounded or killed thousands of Hezbollah, but is still hesitating on a ground invasion.  That will be, presumably, because the Israelis have inflicted maybe 3,000 casualties, but Hezbollah is 100,000 strong.

Quote

Iran either goes full ballistic, in the literal sense, or watches Hez die. There is no middle ground, no matter how many Shaheds you masterbate to.

Looks to me that Israel has failed to eliminate Hamas in nearly a year's worth of bombing with Hamas completely isolated from the world stage.  For you to argue that it will be able to achieve the elimination of the much larger Hezbollah operating with communications to Iran by similar means, this stands in defiance of common sense.   

I think the actual debate in Tehran is whether or not their relations with Hezbollah going forward can stand the strain of Iranian inaction.  The question of Hezbollah's survival I doubt will even enter into it.

Edited September 29, 2024 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

Israel conducts strike in Yemen, "larger than strike on Hodeidah", targeting infrastructure in Al Hodeidah and Ras Issa.

Ras Issa is the secondary and much, much smaller oil import terminal. Hodeidah's airport and seaport targeted.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822398 

 

Tiny Israel putting to shame an entire western coalition to eliminate the Houthis. It's not because Israel is so remarkable in its military capabilities. It isn't. It's just western inaction.

11 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Looks to me that Israel has failed to eliminate Hamas in nearly a year's worth of bombing with Hamas completely isolated from the world stage.  For you to argue that it will be able to achieve the elimination of the much larger Hezbollah operating with communications to Iran by similar means, this stands in defiance of common sense.

This paragraph defies all common sense. If you don't understand what Hamas and Hezbollah are, why don't you just ask more instead of making baseless statements?

 

Edited September 29, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Daan said:

What is the 'strategy' they ask? Is that so hard to grasp? Of course Israel cannot take Iran out, but in the process of managing this threat, it can degrade the capabilities of Iranian assets on its border and that is just what it did.

Degrading Hezbollah seems like a bit of a bullshit objective, as if Israel fails to invade and try to finish them off, Hezbollah will recover. 

The doctrinal lesson for Hezbollah are numerous, but the one that stands out the most is that it needs to be able to interdict Israeli airpower at its source, in southern Israel, and that it over relies on missiles (which are more easily tracked at their dispersal sights) and needs to invest more in drones, (which are harder to detect prior to launch).

Edited September 29, 2024 by glenn239

[seahawk]

11 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

You never listen to evidence. So why would we trust you to make a U-turn and believe evidence now?
Unless you're just shitposting in which case you're very convincing.

What evidence. But do you not ask yourself the question. If your intelligence service can supply detonating pagers, knows that bunker location and how deep they are buried in Beirut, how did those same services completely miss or more correctly ignore the October attacks 

Or did they? Because by now we know, that the plan was known a year in advance, even a training exercise was recognized 3 months before the attack, yet the threat was dismissed.

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/oct.-7-was-an-intelligence-failure--maybe-of-the-u.s.-

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-intelligence-ignored-warning-of-hamas-oct-7-attack-report/3252316

 

[Josh]

37 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Looks to me like Israel has pulled the trigger on all its tricks, wounded or killed thousands of Hezbollah, but is still hesitating on a ground invasion.  That will be, presumably, because the Israelis have inflicted maybe 3,000 casualties, but Hezbollah is 100,000 strong.

Looks to me that Israel has failed to eliminate Hamas in nearly a year's worth of bombing with Hamas completely isolated from the world stage.  For you to argue that it will be able to achieve the elimination of the much larger Hezbollah operating with communications to Iran by similar means, this stands in defiance of common sense.   

I think the actual debate in Tehran is whether or not their relations with Hezbollah going forward can stand the strain of Iranian inaction.  The question of Hezbollah's survival I doubt will even enter into it.

I have no doubt Hezbollah will continue to exist even if there is a ground war. I do however doubt it will have any deterrent value for Iran if its rocket inventory, and especially its ballistic missile inventory, is largely destroyed along with its command and control. And I am rather doubtful Iran can afford to fund the rebuilding of Hezbollah and Lebanon to anything like the degree they did in 2006.

Is Iran willing to part with its ace card against Israel? It seems so to me.

[Mighty_Zuk]

25 minutes ago, seahawk said:

What evidence. But do you not ask yourself the question. If your intelligence service can supply detonating pagers, knows that bunker location and how deep they are buried in Beirut, how did those same services completely miss or more correctly ignore the October attacks

I don't ask myself that question because I served in the unit that supplied those pagers and I know from first hand experience why Hamas was less infilitrated. In fact I wrote the exact reason in this thread.

 

 

27 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Or did they? Because by now we know, that the plan was known a year in advance, even a training exercise was recognized 3 months before the attack, yet the threat was dismissed.

Whether or not a plan was known is a matter of intelligence. However the general consensus is that there was no intelligence failure on October 7th. 

[seahawk]

But, it Hamas was less infiltrated than Hezbollah, but Hezbollah knew and supported the attacks, it still should have been known - no?

And even if it is hard to be sad about the death of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, it still is a matter of fact, that thousands of people - both Israeli and Palestinian - would still be alive, if the attacks would have been prevented. So, imho this warrants a very close examination.

[Daan]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Degrading Hezbollah seems like a bit of a bullshit objective, as if Israel fails to invade and try to finish them off, Hezbollah will recover. 

The doctrinal lesson for Hezbollah are numerous, but the one that stands out the most is that it needs to be able to interdict Israeli airpower at its source, in southern Israel, and that it over relies on missiles (which are more easily tracked at their dispersal sights) and needs to invest more in drones, (which are harder to detect prior to launch).

Politics is the art of the possible, as Bismarck quipped. The removal of Hezbollah would require a total occupation of Shia areas and probably the rest of Lebanon, perhaps an expulsion or extermination of the Shia populace, or an internal Lebanese political revolution / evolution that would produce an alternative, moderate Shia political representation. The latter would of course be greatly helped by the overthrow of the Iranian theocracy. However, a complete occupation is unrealistic and the other developments are outside Israel's control.

Therefore, reducing and deterring the threat is the only practical alternative. That is exactly what we are witnessing these few weeks. Hezbollah will respond of course, the Northern border areas won't be quiet, but its potency will be diminished. If these events have quieted down, perhaps after a ground incursion, Hezbollah's new leadership may well be conscience of the costs associated with poking the bear down South and refrain from doing so in the near future. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

But, it Hamas was less infiltrated than Hezbollah, but Hezbollah knew and supported the attacks, it still should have been known - no?

No, because that's not how intelligence works. First, open sources tell contradicting stories - either Iran was fully in the know, or the plan was hidden from it.

It can be assumed from public knowledge that the IRGC is more penetrated than the terrorist groups. Each group is known (from my personal knowledge) to have their own largely independent security apparatus checking for infiltrations. And the different circumstances for each entity make them of unequal permeability.

Hezbollah is surrounded by and embedded within populations sympathetic to Israel. Hamas is part of a population with deep seated hatred to Israel.

Hezbollah operates between 3 main remote areas. Hamas operates in very short distances.

It is quite obvious that Hamas would not share plans with those more prone to leaking information.

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

And even if it is hard to be sad about the death of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, it still is a matter of fact, that thousands of people - both Israeli and Palestinian - would still be alive, if the attacks would have been prevented. So, imho this warrants a very close examination.

Right, but this is not an intelligence failure. This was a failure to prepare local troops in numbers, equipment, and training.

Early signs were generated on the night before the attack, via detection of Hamas's Nukhba force SIM cards migrating to an Israeli network. The intel was passed forward. But from there, it did not reach all relevant parties. Hence not an intelligence, but a C2 failure.

16 minutes ago, Daan said:

Politics is the art of the possible, as Bismarck quipped. The removal of Hezbollah would require a total occupation of Shia areas and probably the rest of Lebanon, perhaps an expulsion or extermination of the Shia populace, or an internal Lebanese political revolution / evolution that would produce an alternative, moderate Shia political representation. The latter would of course be greatly helped by the overthrow of the Iranian theocracy. However, a complete occupation is unrealistic and the other developments are outside Israel's control.

Therefore, reducing and deterring the threat is the only practical alternative. That is exactly what we are witnessing these few weeks. Hezbollah will respond of course, the Northern border areas won't be quiet, but its potency will be diminished. If these events have quieted down, perhaps after a ground incursion, Hezbollah's new leadership may well be conscience of the costs associated with poking the bear down South and refrain from doing so in the near future. 

I disagree. I think Israel can achieve the necessary level of success by emboldening other factions to openly attack Hezbollah, by providing them with combat support, and by facilitating the evacuation of Shi'ites to Syria.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

But, it Hamas was less infiltrated than Hezbollah, but Hezbollah knew and supported the attacks, it still should have been known - no?

And even if it is hard to be sad about the death of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, it still is a matter of fact, that thousands of people - both Israeli and Palestinian - would still be alive, if the attacks would have been prevented. So, imho this warrants a very close examination.

I cannot imagine either Iran or Hamas were informed. All that would do is provide another security liability; neither party can provide direct support. And I suspect Hamas uses/used a lot less technical means of communication - eg couriers. The geographic area Hamas operates in is minuscule compared to Hezbollah.

Edited September 29, 2024 by Josh

[lucklucky]

11 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Ceasefire got half the hostages back, a hell of a lot more than the IDF ever has. And frankly, that is the ONLY objective here im seeing worth achieving.

 

That is ridiculous.  So for you the only strategy is getting more hostages or worse in the future. Following your thinking neither Hamas or Heezbollah would be degraded instead they would be stronger.

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

This paragraph defies all common sense. If you don't understand what Hamas and Hezbollah are, why don't you just ask more instead of making baseless statements?

I'm sorry, are we supposed to not notice that  after a year that Hamas is still in existence?  

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Josh said:

I have no doubt Hezbollah will continue to exist even if there is a ground war. I do however doubt it will have any deterrent value for Iran if its rocket inventory, and especially its ballistic missile inventory, is largely destroyed along with its command and control.

You're assuming that Iran requires Hezbollah in order to fight a war with Israel.  But the evidence from Iran's non-response to current events seems to be at contradiction to that conclusion.  Iran's inaction suggests to me that Tehran does not believe it requires Hezbollah for its own military plans.  It seems more a question of Iran's street cred in Shiatown that their proxy is being punched and Iran does nothing.

[urbanoid]

Sure, they only spent decades on buidling up Hez's capabilities and funding the shit out of them. This arsenal absolutely wasn't necessary to deter Israel from attacking Iran proper, now that Hez has been buttfucked is a no problem whatsoever for Iran. 

In Glennworld everything is a setback for Israel, nothing is ever a setback for Iran. Same for 'any western country' vs. 'any anti-western country'.

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Daan said:

Therefore, reducing and deterring the threat is the only practical alternative. That is exactly what we are witnessing these few weeks. 

That's presumably the plan, but will Hezbollah come out of this being either deterred or reduced?   

Quote

Hezbollah will respond of course, the Northern border areas won't be quiet, but its potency will be diminished. If these events have quieted down, perhaps after a ground incursion, Hezbollah's new leadership may well be conscience of the costs associated with poking the bear down South and refrain from doing so in the near future.

I've got no idea what Hezbollah is going to do.  But will Hezbollah self-select a new leadership class based on exercising more caution?  Didn't Hamas after similar experiences in wars against Israel select a leadership that was more radical?

 

[glenn239]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

In Glennworld everything is a setback for Israel, nothing is ever a setback for Iran. 

I realize you and MZ are strategic geniuses and all, but to my simpler way of measuring things, if Israel is bombing Lebanon, well, the Iranians are in Iran, not in Lebanon.   

Quote

Sure, they only spent decades on buidling up Hez's capabilities and funding the shit out of them. This arsenal absolutely wasn't necessary to deter Israel from attacking Iran proper, now that Hez has been buttfucked is a no problem whatsoever for Iran. 

What percentage of Hezbollah's arsenal has been destroyed so far?

Edited September 29, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

47 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

That is ridiculous.  So for you the only strategy is getting more hostages or worse in the future. Following your thinking neither Hamas or Heezbollah would be degraded instead they would be stronger.

In fact Stuart's point was 100% dead on the mark.  It pains me to have to say that.

Israel's only coherent strategy is what I told you six years ago.  Israel is over its head and requires the intervention of the Superpowers in the region to save it from disaster.

 

[Markus Becker]

14 hours ago, Daan said:

Allegedly one of the impact crates of a GBU-31 (V) 3/B on Hezbollah's HQ:

Clips of the bombs arriving on target. One house collapses 

 

 

[crazyinsane105]

43 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Clips of the bombs arriving on target. One house collapses 

 

 

Those clips are from Gaza, not Lebanon.

[crazyinsane105]

5 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Sure, they only spent decades on buidling up Hez's capabilities and funding the shit out of them. This arsenal absolutely wasn't necessary to deter Israel from attacking Iran proper, now that Hez has been buttfucked is a no problem whatsoever for Iran. 

In Glennworld everything is a setback for Israel, nothing is ever a setback for Iran. Same for 'any western country' vs. 'any anti-western country'.

To be fair, Israel played its trump card against Hezbullah and weakened it quite a bit. But the core issue is that Hezbullah has more than enough firepower to keep Israelis from returning to northern Israel indefinitely. 

Rather large number of rockets and PGMs are hidden well underneath mountains and deep forests which will require an extensive Israeli ground operation to clear out. Something the IDF chose not to do in 2006:

 

Hezbollah Nature Reserves were a system of Hezbollah strongholds built in southern Lebanon between the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon 2000and the 2006 Lebanon war. The term "Nature Reserve" (Hebrew: שמורת טבע, shmorat tev’a) was originally IDF slang and refer to the fact that they were primarily placed in the countryside away from habitation and were declared off-limits to the IDF during the war, due to fear of high casualties.

Human Rights Watch wrote in an extensive report published about a year after the war that "we found strong evidence that Hezbollah stored most of its rockets and missiles in bunkers and weapon storage facilities located in uninhabited fields, forests and valleys,… and that Hezbollah fired the vast majority of its rockets from pre-prepared positions outside villages."[1]

The Israeli special forces unit Maglan stumbled into a Nature Reserve near Maroun ar-Ras and suffered heavy casualties. "We didn't know what hit us," said one of the Maglan soldiers. "In seconds we had two dead including the combat medic." "We expected a tent and three Kalashnikovs — that was the intelligence we were given. Instead, we found a hydraulic steel door leading to a very well-equipped network of underground tunnels."[2][3]

After the battle of Maroun ar-Ras, the head of IDF Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Udi Adam forbade any further attacks on Nature Reserves. "A nature reserve can swallow an entire brigade," he said.[4]According to Haaretz "[t]hroughout the war the General Staff and the Northern Command restricted offensive operations into these areas, following the initial encounter…[at] the "nature reserve" code-named Shaked near the town of Maroun al-Ras." [5]

The well entrenched Nature Reserves were not vulnerable to heavy artillery or airstrikes. The decision not to attack these positions, sometimes only hundreds of meters from the Israeli border, made it possible for Hezbollah to continue firing rockets over Northern Israel throughout the war. Most of the short range Katyusha rockets fired on Israel during the war were fired from Nature Reserves.[6]

In December 2007 the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee issued the findings of its investigation into the 2006 war in Lebanon. It condemned the senior IDF command in unusually severe terms and said that the army's methods of fighting "played into Hezbollah's hands." It was especially critical of the delay in launching a ground war and refraining from attacking the Nature Reserves.[5]

Another Nature Reserve was found at Labbouna, near a forest undergrowth hillside a few hundred meters from the Israeli border and some kilometer from the UNIFIL headquarters at Naqoura. The area was completely sealed off by Hezbollah in 2002 and declared a "military zone". Neither Israel nor UNIFIL understood what Hezbollah was up to until the 2006 war. "We never saw them build anything," a high ranking UNIFIL officer told Nicholas Blanford. "They must have brought the cement in by the spoonful."[7] Hezbollah maintained a clearly visible outpost nearby that was immediately shelled by the IDF on July 12, after the abduction of the two Israeli soldiers. This outpost was only a decoy that was already abandoned, and the fighters had relocated to the covered positions in the Nature Reserves.

Hezbollah had a commanding view of northern Israel all the way to Acre and Haifa.[8] From the first day of the war this Nature reserve was a source of almost constant Katyusha rocket fire. Israel repeatedly tried to knock out the launch site by the use massive artillery and air strikes, including the use of cluster bombs and phosphorus grenades. But the rockets continued to be fired until the last hour before the ceasefire.

Hezbollah fighters completely commanded the terrain to the south and claimed to have destroyed an armored bulldozer and a tank only 6 meters into Lebanese territory, on August 8, 2006.[8] The IDF confirmed that Capt.(res.) Gilad Balhasan, 28, of Karmiel, and St.-Sgt.(res.) Yesamu Yalau, 26, of Or Yehuda were killed in the incident.[9][10]

The IDF bypassed Labbouna and had it effectively surrounded for the latter part of the war. There are no reports of any IDF attempt to capture the area. Instead, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at northern Israel until the ceasefire agreement on Aug. 14.[11] Hezbollah fighters who were stationed at Labbouna during the war claim to have launched a raid on an IDF position inside Israeli territory, killing and injuring several Israeli soldiers, including an officer.[8] IDF confirmed that an officer, Maj.Colonel (res.) Nimrod Hillel, was killed, while another IDF soldier was severely wounded, in the area of Labbouna on August 10.[12][9] According to Hezbollah all of the resistance fighters at Labbouna survived the war, but several fighters reported spitting blood and experiencing prolonged health effects after inhaling white phosphorus.[8]

After the ceasefire Hezbollah withdrew from the area in accordance with UN resolution 1701. The IDF then entered the area and destroyed a large bunker system before withdrawing from Lebanon.[7]Towards the end of the war the IDF "chanced" upon what was then an unknown well-equipped bunker system overlooking the road where the abduction of the two soldiers took place.[13]

Nicholas Blanford visited an untouched and apparently abandoned Nature Reserve near Rashafmore than six months after the war. The area is about six kilometers from the Israeli border and saw heavy fighting in the last days of the war. The large deserted bunker was accessed through a narrow 6 meter shaft that led into a 60 meters long main passage, with steel doors every 10 meters. Blanford estimated that the main section was 35–50 meters under the surface. The facility was fitted with a communications room, air condition and electricity as well as a bathroom and a kitchen. It had multiple entrances and exits. [14]

After the war UNIFIL searched southern Lebanon and found 33 Nature Reserves scattered across the countryside.[15]

In January 2007 IDF found two underground bunkers, connected by a tunnel, on Israeli territory along the Lebanese border. The bunkers contained food and weapons equipment and were destroyed by the IDF.[16]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_Nature_Reserves
 

These nature reserves also utilize fiber optic lines for communication, something which isn’t susceptible to EW. South Lebanon has territory more reminiscent of parts of Afghanistan when it comes to mountains, rivers, forests, etc. An opposing force will need a LOT of infantry and stomach a significant number of casualties to take out all these fortifications 

Edited September 30, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[crazyinsane105]

Btw, the first encounter with Hezbullah nature reserves in 2006 forced Israeli command to not want to deploy any vehicle that wasn’t heavily armored. Basically that meant re supply of their forces was significantly curtailed.

 

At Maroun al-Ras IDF experienced for the first time sustained Hezbollah attacks with anti-tank rockets and guided missiles and especially the deadly effect of the "swarming" technique. As a member of Egozlater told: "What can you do when a missile is being fired at you other than say your prayers?"[6] IDF Northern command banned the introduction of vehicles to Lebanon, with exception of tanks and heavy APCs, such as the Achzarit. This would have a detrimental effect on IDF's ability to supply its troops later in the war. The battle at Maroun ar-Ras, however, showed that not even these heavy armored vehicles were invulnerable to Hezbollah missiles. [1]

Also important to note that Hezbullah didn’t have significant stockpiles of Kornet missiles in 2006. They had at most a few hundred (at the time, Syria had about 5,000 Kornet missiles along with several hundred launchers…Hezbullah received a partial number of these ATGMs). Majority of the missiles were older such as Konkurs and Saggers. Of course they had RPG-29s but how many actually were utilized versus the other weapons, I haven’t come across any statistic on it.

Dynamics are significantly different now, as Hezbullah has a rather huge number of men, arms, and surveillance techniques. IDF will have to go deep into south Lebanon, occupy it for six months battle just over 100K Hezbullah fighters (and god knows how many other jihadists who will gladly come) to be able to effectively destroy Hezbullahs infrastructure and weapon depots. 
 

[seahawk]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

I cannot imagine either Iran or Hamas were informed. All that would do is provide another security liability; neither party can provide direct support. And I suspect Hamas uses/used a lot less technical means of communication - eg couriers. The geographic area Hamas operates in is minuscule compared to Hezbollah.

I can see the logic behind this, but why is Israel then bombing  Hezbollah? The number of rockets they fired towards Israel must be considered symbolic.

[Mighty_Zuk]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I'm sorry, are we supposed to not notice that  after a year that Hamas is still in existence?  

Yes. It's expected of someone on a military related forum to either be already knowledgeable on military subjects, or better yet - ask about things he doesn't understand.

The fighting in Gaza ended more than half a year ago. Israel's engaged in negotiations and cannot resume conventional military ops while hostages are held by senior Hamas leadership. Even before that, Israel's pace was low, deliberately to facilitate the evacuation of civilians and to permit intelligence units to operate and search for hostages. It was further slowed down by the fact Gaza is a dense urban area with a complex system of tunnels of about half a million kilometers.

Lebanon is none of that, and has unique characteristics of its own.

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You're assuming that Iran requires Hezbollah in order to fight a war with Israel.  But the evidence from Iran's non-response to current events seems to be at contradiction to that conclusion.  Iran's inaction suggests to me that Tehran does not believe it requires Hezbollah for its own military plans.  It seems more a question of Iran's street cred in Shiatown that their proxy is being punched and Iran does nothing.

Or maybe Hezbollah was pummeled so hard and was denied the ability to fire at Israel with their launches being pre-empted, reducing volleys from thousands to tens or maybe a hundred rockets only per day, and Iran miscalculated Israel's response thinking it'd be ultra reactionary like it has been the past several decades til 2 weeks ago - that they figured it's best to cut the losses.

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

That's presumably the plan, but will Hezbollah come out of this being either deterred or reduced?   

It's already reduced. Hezbollah is long term fucked because of demographics, and the only 2 ways for them to save themselves are to increase fertility rate or try to get Shi'ite immigrants from elsewhere. 

Their population base is currently largely displaced which diminishes their ability to fight other Lebanese factions.

You're asking about the end result when we're just at the beginning.

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I've got no idea what Hezbollah is going to do.  But will Hezbollah self-select a new leadership class based on exercising more caution?  Didn't Hamas after similar experiences in wars against Israel select a leadership that was more radical?

Radicalism is usually detrimental to the effectiveness of an armed force. It means they're emotional and not rational, so will be more prone to strategic mistakes.

 

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

realize you and MZ are strategic geniuses and all, but to my simpler way of measuring things, if Israel is bombing Lebanon, well, the Iranians are in Iran, not in Lebanon.   

All will be bombed in due time.

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Israel's only coherent strategy is what I told you six years ago.  Israel is over its head and requires the intervention of the Superpowers in the region to save it from disaster.

There are no superpowers. The US effectively abandoned Ukraine and Israel and has started a process to reconcile with Russia and Iran and make them trade partners. There's no one to talk to.

 

[lucklucky]

 

[seahawk]

Multiple hits on the same point.