Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Only someone who clearly doesn't understand Hezbollah in the slightest could make such assessment.

As alreadly stated, the results of the war were about what was to be expected.  The safe money was that Hezbollah would do the majority of the dying but would survive, and that's precisely what happened.  The fighting theatre is highly compressed in comparison to, say, Ukraine, only a tiny fraction of the total area, Lebanon is swimming in Israeli agents, and the weather tends to be sunny.   That makes it hard for the insurgents to go up against Western airpower.

Iran is a much more dangerous threat.  It's  further away, better armed, much larger, and has more powerful friends.  Even your PM isn't stupid enough to attack Iran without US assurances of backing.

Edited January 18 by glenn239

[rmgill]

On 1/17/2025 at 6:09 PM, urbanoid said:

You're right, I bet they're also singing YMJA (Young Men's Jihadi Association).

Young Men’s Caliphate Association. 
 

 

 

Sorry, very obscure Cowboy Beebop reference…

[urbanoid]

26 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Young Men’s Caliphate Association. 
 

 

 

Sorry, very obscure Cowboy Beebop reference…

A good one, should have thought of that.

[Mighty_Zuk]

I don't believe I've yet seen Khamenei comment on a technical issue. 

I think he shows an important aspect of the Israeli-Iranian BM exchange in October in particular, and force buildup in general.

Iran fired an impressive ~200 munitions with frightening visuals. But when the dust settled, it was clear there was very little damage.

Israel in exchange fired a much smaller amount of munitions, all of which reached their targets and overall caused significant material damage.

Had Iran's 200 MRBMs been more precise, to the same level as Israel's ALBMs, Iran could do significant damage.

This isn't some fantasy though. Iran has steadily improved the accuracy of its MRBMs over the years, has worked on missiles that could reach Berlin, has launched satellites that could facilitate midcourse course corrections, improved its systems' reliability, and importable IMUs are increasingly accurate.

Israel on the other hand, if it neglects strike missions in Iran, should then at least invest in defensive capabilities that give it the economical edge and industrial edge. That is, compared to what Iran produces, interceptors must be cheaper, and more produced.

Government R&D orders aside, Israeli defense companies recently debuted not 1 but 2 ABM missiles: Arrow 4, and SkySonic.

Their characteristics are unknown but it is possible they're intended as high discrimination, high cost, and low discrimination low cost pair.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Iran fired an impressive ~200 munitions with frightening visuals. But when the dust settled, it was clear there was very little damage.

As we've discussed at length in the past, in the 2 attacks the Iranians targeted mostly runways, aprons and taxiways.   Some of these were clean misses, suggesting older missiles/guidance systems.  There were a few buildings with direct hits, suggesting newer missiles with good guidance systems.  The Iranians also made the statement that they chose missiles with smaller warheads, and in the case of the first attack, they informed the Israelis so that a maximum defense could be arranged.  In the second attack the video showed three dozen missiles pummeling the base, suggesting a failure of the Iron Dome to stop the attack.   In neither instance is there any evidence to suggest the number of munitions were anywhere near the levels of a real attack.

All of this information was known to you before you posted.

Edited February 13 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

16 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

There were a few buildings with direct hits, suggesting newer missiles with good guidance systems

If one missile out of over 30 gets a hit, that's not a "good guidance". That's statistics. Ones that show horrible accuracy.

18 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The Iranians also made the statement that they chose missiles with smaller warheads, and in the case of the first attack, they informed the Israelis so that a maximum defense could be arranged.

Cope and seethe. Both Israel and Iran provided early warning because such long range attacks, practically unprecedented until then, occurred over other countries' airspace, and used by civilians. This is called deconfliction, to keep the shooting war between Israel and Iran and not accidentally involve others.

20 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

In the second attack the video showed three dozen missiles pummeling the base, suggesting a failure of the Iron Dome to stop the attack.

So was it missiles with small warheads and low accuracy hitting mostly runways and dirt, or was it an Iron Dome failure?

The two are mutually exclusive.

And a small reminder that Iron Dome is not a BMD system. The systems involved in BMD are Arrow 2 & 3, and David's Sling. Iron Dome can only shoot down CRBMs.

22 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

In neither instance is there any evidence to suggest the number of munitions were anywhere near the levels of a real attack.

So small warheads or inert? I don't understand. 

You honestly want people to believe Iran got smacked for not really attacking?

23 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

All of this information was known to you before you posted.

None of what you wrote even qualifies as information. Every single word is wrong and self contradictory.

Go read about Ballistic Missile Defense first. No, it's not some village in Lebanon.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

None of what you wrote even qualifies as information. Every single word is wrong and self contradictory.

 

The Iranians do not appear that worried about war with Israel, this from the obvious fact that Israel was unable to parry two missile attacks where the Iranians were holding back.  It is war with the United States that terrifies them.   

[Mighty_Zuk]

I agree with the below assessment.

An Israeli strike on Iran is very likely to lead with a strike on critical manpower. It is necessary to disrupt planning and BDA during a strike campaign, and also to prevent them from going into hiding and to prolong the period until Iran can start to rebuild.