Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[LeeWalls]

4 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Why could not be destroyed by missiles or bombing?

Gee who knows.   Maybe they were carefully avoiding all the ...  "Muslim 'Civilians'" eh?

[lucklucky]

Maybe some special cave.

 

edit: https://www.twz.com/air/inside-israels-commando-raid-on-irans-underground-missile-factory-in-syria

Edited January 3 by lucklucky

[Mighty_Zuk]

7 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Why could not be destroyed by missiles or bombing?

There's high value in going inside. It lets you verify intel, gather info on how these are built, extract documentation on activity, and ensure destruction.

[RETAC21]

15 hours ago, urbanoid said:

The facility was largely abandoned or what?

Explained here:

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Basically what I said earlier. A lot of irreversible steps made already under Biden. Trump is therefore forced to order military action.

Some of it may have to include physical removal of enriched material from Iran. The US has the capabilities to do so with its regional assets. Israel may also have such capability but it'd be a much more complex and risky operation for it.

The IRGC's vulnerability in light of its massive losses across the region, have made the task of a revolution of Iran a fairly easy undertaking. But it too might require swift action to paralyze the Basij like Israel paralyzed Hezbollah in September.

 

It's now reported that the IDF rushed to reinforce its northern border quickly on October 7th, and it definitely played a significant role in Hezbollah's calculus. Starting a large scale attack on Israel depended tremendously on Radwan's ability to invade Israel October 7th-style. 

 

Edited January 6 by Mighty_Zuk

[rmgill]

On 12/23/2024 at 7:44 AM, Mighty_Zuk said:

1. Verbally insulting a police officer is an offense in Israel.

Which nations is verbally insulting a police officer NOT an offense? 

Can I tell a Russian Police officer what to do with his mother and not expect issues? 

[rmgill]

5 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

 

I was trying to figure out what the light armored vehicle was on the right in the above image. It looked wonky as heck...6 wheel HMMWV sized vehcile? Then I realized, it's an AI generated Image. Grok is NOT able to visually draw an accurate armored vehicle even when asked to make a specific vehicle. I've played around with it. If you ask for an M4 E8 Sherman you get something that looks like a sherman but with torsion bar suspension.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

I was trying to figure out what the light armored vehicle was on the right in the above image. It looked wonky as heck...6 wheel HMMWV sized vehcile? Then I realized, it's an AI generated Image. Grok is NOT able to visually draw an accurate armored vehicle even when asked to make a specific vehicle. I've played around with it. If you ask for an M4 E8 Sherman you get something that looks like a sherman but with torsion bar suspension.

Yeah but credit is due as we both thought it was real even if for a few moments.

[rmgill]

46 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Yeah but credit is due as we both thought it was real even if for a few moments.

The detail parts are right. Its just their arrangement is wonky. Like the folks with too many fingers. 
 

If you have an X account. Try this for Grok. ‘Please generate an image of  Sherman m4e8 in snow. ’ 

 

The results are kind of ok but not. Like an impressionists’ version of said tank. 

Edited January 6 by rmgill

[Mighty_Zuk]

59 minutes ago, rmgill said:

The detail parts are right. Its just their arrangement is wonky. Like the folks with too many fingers. 
 

If you have an X account. Try this for Grok. ‘Please generate an image of  Sherman m4e8 in snow. ’ 

 

The results are kind of ok but not. Like an impressionists’ version of said tank. 

What I got is nothing like the E8 but some of them are actually pretty good, compared to previous results at least.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Big if true

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Iran apparently copying the Israeli UVision Hero series LMs now. But it's a little too late at this point. Iran is this close to being cooked. 

[glenn239]

Looks like maybe a basic shift in doctrine away from missiles, which Hezbollah just discovered  are not as easily hidden from the IAF as hoped.  In terms of Iran soon to be "cooked", we'll see what happens.

Edited January 9 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

6 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Looks like maybe a basic shift in doctrine away from missiles, which Hezbollah just discovered  are not as easily hidden from the IAF as hoped.  In terms of Iran soon to be "cooked", we'll see what happens.

I remind you of your doomsday prophecy of Hezbollah drones decimating the Israeli army and everything on the Israeli side of the border. 

Can we get an update on that?

[rmgill]

Maybe try paging him to get an update? 

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

I remind you of your doomsday prophecy of Hezbollah drones decimating the Israeli army and everything on the Israeli side of the border. 

I seem to recall having the opinion that the Israeli army would have difficulty advancing into Lebanon against Hezbollah missiles and drones, but not the rest of what you suggest.  I don't recall ever having much idea on what offensive threat Hezbollah posed to Israel, for the simple reason that it was not clear exactly what capabilities Hezbollah had.  I do remember stating that Hezbollah would not attempt to pre-empt an Israeli attack, but would rather try to ride it out.  (Whereas you thought the opposite, that they would try a preemptive attack).

As it stood, the Israelis did not attempt to advance too far into Lebanon, probably because the conditions would be difficult.

Edited January 10 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I don't recall ever having much idea on what offensive threat Hezbollah posed to Israel, for the simple reason that it was not clear exactly what capabilities Hezbollah had.

Nah, it was pretty clear and I made the effort, just for you, to thoroughly explain the strategic importance and capabilities of Radwan.

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

As it stood, the Israelis did not attempt to advance too far into Lebanon, probably because the conditions would be difficult.

The IDF advanced deep into Lebanon, took insane amounts of weaponry and destroyed many strategically vital tunnels. Radwan was permanently paralyzed. 

Without Radwan and the missile force, Hezbollah was effectively devoid of military power. There was nowhere else to advance to. 

Your fantasy of a massive drone assault turned out to be just a fantast and nothing more.

[Mighty_Zuk]

I highly recommend following this guy.

Finally we're seeing some BMD efforts by Iran, albeit highly unlikely to be effective given the technological gap between Israel and Iran and the inherent difficulty in BMD especially against an adversary capable of producing top of the line munitions.

 

 

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Nah, it was pretty clear and I made the effort, just for you, to thoroughly explain the strategic importance and capabilities of Radwan.

I don't even know what "Radwan" is, and half the time I don't you pay the slightest attention to who posts what.  My view on Hezbollah is that they have strong defensive capabilities that deter Israeli ground assaults, but I've never thought of their offensive capacity being that important.   Watching the Iranians do nothing in the Hezbollah war, I drew the conclusion that the Iranian missile forces doctrinally did not rely on Hezbollah weapons for deterrence posture.

 

Quote

The IDF advanced deep into Lebanon, took insane amounts of weaponry and destroyed many strategically vital tunnels. Radwan was permanently paralyzed. 

ChatGPT says Radwan refers to a village in Lebanon?  Is that what you are talking about?  

 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

36 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I don't even know what "Radwan" is, and half the time I don't you pay the slightest attention to who posts what.  My view on Hezbollah is that they have strong defensive capabilities that deter Israeli ground assaults, but I've never thought of their offensive capacity being that important.   Watching the Iranians do nothing in the Hezbollah war, I drew the conclusion that the Iranian missile forces doctrinally did not rely on Hezbollah weapons for deterrence posture.

 

ChatGPT says Radwan refers to a village in Lebanon?  Is that what you are talking about?  

 

 

That's the dumbest **** I heard today. 

Fine, yes. Radwan is a village.

Edited January 10 by Mighty_Zuk

[urbanoid]

Just now, Mighty_Zuk said:

Are you redacted?

Just skip the middleman and ask chatGPT yourself.

[James1978]

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I don't even know what "Radwan" is, and half the time I don't you pay the slightest attention to who posts what.  My view on Hezbollah is that they have strong defensive capabilities that deter Israeli ground assaults, but I've never thought of their offensive capacity being that important.   Watching the Iranians do nothing in the Hezbollah war, I drew the conclusion that the Iranian missile forces doctrinally did not rely on Hezbollah weapons for deterrence posture.

ChatGPT says Radwan refers to a village in Lebanon?  Is that what you are talking about? 

Try searching for "Radwan Force".

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, James1978 said:

Try searching for "Radwan Force".

The point being that Hezbollah and its offensive capacity for war with Israel was and is of such little interest to me that I'd not heard of Radwan.  I've never considered either Hamas or Hezbollah to have the firepower to make much of a difference on the strategic level.

In other news, for reasons that are not clear, Trump just shared an anti-Netanyahu video,

 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The point being that Hezbollah and its offensive capacity for war with Israel was and is of such little interest to me that I'd not heard of Radwan.  I've never considered either Hamas or Hezbollah to have the firepower to make much of a difference on the strategic level.

Being willfully ignorant is not the flex you think it is.

If you really don't know what Hezbollah and Hamas are, except that they're Lebanese villages - what on earth are you doing here trying to lecture others?

 

[glenn239]

10 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

If you really don't know what Hezbollah and Hamas are...<.snip>

You made statements that are not correct about my view of Hezbollah's offensive capacity against Israel.   In fact I've taken little interest in Hezbollah's offensive capacity because I didn't and don't rate it highly.  Judging from the fact that Iran did not fight when Israel attacked Hezbollah, the Iranians themselves do not consider Hezbollah as vital to their missile forces.   

My opinion is that Iran's national missile and drone forces are, not withstanding recent events, intact.  If the United States attacks Iran, then an attack on Iran can succeed.  If Israel were to do so on its own, it will fail.  That is the situation as it exists.  And as of this moment, it is not clear that Trump intends to attack Iran, or why he reposted an anti-Bibi podcast.

 

Edited January 11 by glenn239