Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Markus Becker]

On 12/12/2024 at 7:33 AM, Mighty_Zuk said:

Unprecedented clashes in Samaria region since yesterday.

Jenin in particular has been a hotspot for terrorists for decades. I assume mostly Hamas but also a lot of others often new ones popping up. The PA never really ruled there, and it was the IDF's responsibility eventually to keep things in check and prevent a PA collapse.

I assume this is directly connected to the situation in Gaza and a power struggle to subdue the PA and maintain rule in Gaza under the facade of a PA administration.

This is also a sign Hamas sees an upcoming conclusion to the situation in Gaza and particularly a hostage deal that's been talked about for weeks now.

 

HamAss vs the PA i presume? 

[Mighty_Zuk]

19 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

HamAss vs the PA i presume? 

Seems so, yes.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

I see the pager thing is still generating debate. 

Although the attack itself was a surprise to many, in reality, this type of operation is really not that uncommon, and AMAN is really not the only org doing this.

[Roman Alymov]

On 12/13/2024 at 3:36 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

So in Jerusalem. claimed to be the capital of Israel, civilized Western state with rule of law and so on, IDF soldier (not even Police officer) is investigator, judge and law enforcement in one face?

[urbanoid]

18 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

So in Jerusalem. claimed to be the capital of Israel, civilized Western state with rule of law and so on, IDF soldier (not even Police officer) is investigator, judge and law enforcement in one face?

Civilized rule of law is for civilized people. Savages should be taught with a whip, like circus animals (except circus animals don't deserve that).

Edited December 23, 2024 by urbanoid

[Stuart Galbraith]

25 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

So in Jerusalem. claimed to be the capital of Israel, civilized Western state with rule of law and so on, IDF soldier (not even Police officer) is investigator, judge and law enforcement in one face?

And the Soldiers in Bucha were what, legally qualified? You arent in any place to sneer acting like an imperial nation Roman. Thats why the rest of us gave it up.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

So in Jerusalem. claimed to be the capital of Israel, civilized Western state with rule of law and so on, IDF soldier (not even Police officer) is investigator, judge and law enforcement in one face?

1. Israel does not claim Jerusalem is its capital.

2. Israeli border police are in fact police, with all that implies.

1. Border police receive 05 infantryman training instead of standard policeman training. That's all the difference.
2. Verbally insulting a police officer is an offense in Israel.

Edited December 23, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[R011]

I would hesitate to call a cop here a whore or any other insult.  I don't think it would get one beaten nowadays, but I suspect there'd be consequences.

But I'm sure cops in Russia never do stuff like that.

 

 

[NickM]

13 hours ago, R011 said:

I would hesitate to call a cop here a whore or any other insult.  I don't think it would get one beaten nowadays, but I suspect there'd be consequences.

But I'm sure cops in Russia never do stuff like that.

 

 

I have no doubts about Russia cops when I saw a vid one punching thru a car window and drag out the uncooperative drunk driver 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Israel and the US are dismantling the Houthis' fighting and survival capabilities. The idea is to impose a siege, so to speak, such that prevents the Houthis from rearming and funding their mercenaries.

The emerging reality:

• Hamas neutralized (Gaza).
• Hezbollah neutralized (Lebanon).
• Active fighting in J&S to prevent Iranian establishment.
• Syria in anti-Iranian hands.
• Iraq not cooperative with Iran anymore.
• Houthis struggling to survive.

These were all of Iran's proxies. The king is naked. Israel should strike. But that's just the near term.

In the longer term, Israel should plan for the post-Iran middle east. Negative influence could come from 2 directions:

• Turkey.
• China.

Both are tricky to deal with. China is a superpower, but it's also far too reluctant to spread influence. So the threat is low.

Turkey is a member of NATO and thus receives western weaponry. This gives it a high potential to arm proxies against Israel. However, Israel could also establish deterrence in a number of ways.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Reportedly first ever THAAD intercept in US service (first generally by UAE).

Yesterday, in Israel, vs Houthi MRBM.

 

[glenn239]

10 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Israel and the US are dismantling the Houthis' fighting and survival capabilities. The idea is to impose a siege, so to speak, such that prevents the Houthis from rearming and funding their mercenaries.

The emerging reality:

• Hamas neutralized (Gaza).
• Hezbollah neutralized (Lebanon).
• Active fighting in J&S to prevent Iranian establishment.
• Syria in anti-Iranian hands.
• Iraq not cooperative with Iran anymore.
• Houthis struggling to survive.

These were all of Iran's proxies. The king is naked. Israel should strike. But that's just the near term.

You've been banging the drum for over 5 years to get your war with Iran, so listing a bunch of irrelevant nonsense doesn't really bring home the bacon in terms of convincing anyone of the wisdom for war.  The Iranian high card in a war with Israel is its offensive missile forces, and these are intact.  

- Hamas and Hezbollah were and are largely irrelevant in an Israeli-Iranian regional war. 

- The Houthis are a minor enduring annoyance at best, completely reliant on foreign powers for all of their munitions.

- The fall of Assad has prevented Iran from playing games in Syria, but it's unclear of what, if any, impact it would have in the war you want to fight. 

- The Russian departure from Syria removes any capacity for Israel to leverage Russian behavior on the basis of the fragility of Russia's position in Syria.  There are reports that the Russians and Iranians will deepen defense ties before Trump takes office. 

- Trump's attitude is not yet clear.  All we know at this time is that he is expressing support for Israel, is determined to end Iran's nuclear program and impose sanctions, and doesn't seem too interested in a regional war.  

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, glenn239 said:

- The fall of Assad has prevented Iran from playing games in Syria, but it's unclear of what, if any, impact it would have in the war you want to fight. 

 

Removal of Syrian AD capability will open Syria airspace for Israel jets to attack Iran from this direction (but not clear how it will effect overall results)

[glenn239]

16 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Removal of Syrian AD capability will open Syria airspace for Israel jets to attack Iran from this direction (but not clear how it will effect overall results)

Syrian AD was largely in places outside the routes needed to attack Iran, and as information emerges on the contacts between Israeli and Syrian officials, I doubt the Syrians would have done anything except shut their radars off anyways.

[Mighty_Zuk]

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Syrian AD was largely in places outside the routes needed to attack Iran, and as information emerges on the contacts between Israeli and Syrian officials, I doubt the Syrians would have done anything except shut their radars off anyways.

You do know there's open source data on where these air defenses were, right? I really wouldn't recommend bullshitting on something so verifiable.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You've been banging the drum for over 5 years to get your war with Iran

And we got that in October 2023 on Iran's initiative.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

, so listing a bunch of irrelevant nonsense doesn't really bring home the bacon in terms of convincing anyone of the wisdom for war. 

Calling it irrelevant nonsense is really the self own you never realized it was.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Iranian high card in a war with Israel is its offensive missile forces, and these are intact.  

The fact that this remains Iran's sole weapon is in itself humiliating for Iran.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

- Hamas and Hezbollah were and are largely irrelevant in an Israeli-Iranian regional war. 

Yes that's what I said. They were Iran's main weapon and now they're gone, leaving Iran exposed.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

- The Houthis are a minor enduring annoyance at best, completely reliant on foreign powers for all of their munitions.

Hence Israel so far doing only anti-value strikes on them and prepping to go for Iran in the near term. Israel still has some things to hit, but it won't go for a long strike campaign with them as it did with Hamas and Hezbollah. If the US and Arabs want to take down the Houthis, they can go for it.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

- The fall of Assad has prevented Iran from playing games in Syria, but it's unclear of what, if any, impact it would have in the war you want to fight. 

Assad's removal means removal of Iranian proxies from Syrian territory - permanently. 

It also means no land corridor to resupply Hezbollah and no air defenses to bother Israeli refueling aircraft.

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

- The Russian departure from Syria removes any capacity for Israel to leverage Russian behavior on the basis of the fragility of Russia's position in Syria.  There are reports that the Russians and Iranians will deepen defense ties before Trump takes office. 

Why would Israel need to influence Russia in Syria? Russia's no longer in Syria. Its presence was a nuisance to Israel.

Russia and Iran already have deep defense ties. What more can they deepen in the near future?

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

- Trump's attitude is not yet clear.  All we know at this time is that he is expressing support for Israel, is determined to end Iran's nuclear program and impose sanctions, and doesn't seem too interested in a regional war.  

Considering the recent record of Iranian proxies running away from battle instead of fighting to their death, I'd say we've thoroughly disproven this lie of regional war.

[glenn239]

9 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

You do know there's open source data on where these air defenses were, right? I really wouldn't recommend bullshitting on something so verifiable.

Look at a map.  The Israelis need Jordanian and Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.  Eastern Syria, where the bulk of Syrian AD was not concentrated and is full of Kurdish and US forces, is of less benefiet.  

Quote

Calling it irrelevant nonsense is really the self own you never realized it was.

The fall of Syria and setbacks suffered by Hezbollah are minor events.  The main questions are whether the Trump policy for an Isreali war against Iran is different than Biden's, and what the Russians and Chinese intend to do.

Quote

The fact that this remains Iran's sole weapon is in itself humiliating for Iran.

The Iranian missiles forces were always the main force against Israel.  Hezbollah was obviously not deemed of central importance in Tehran for a war with Israel, as Iran chose not to intervene in the Isreali-Hezbollah conflict.  In terms of the current status of Hebollah, they seem to be recovering.

Quote

Assad's removal means removal of Iranian proxies from Syrian territory - permanently. 

Assad's removal means the Russians and Iranians leaving Syria and being replaced by Turkish proxies.  Whether this will lead to a Turkish-Israeli detente, or to a war is yet to be seen.

Quote

It also means no land corridor to resupply Hezbollah and no air defenses to bother Israeli refueling aircraft.

The Iranians were not using the land corridor to Lebanon because it was unreliable and dangerous.  They were using sea and air routes, meaning that the decision of the Russians to leave Syria might have an impact on their communications with Hezbollah, but overall, sea and air communications into Lebanon will probably suffice.

Quote

Why would Israel need to influence Russia in Syria? Russia's no longer in Syria. Its presence was a nuisance to Israel.

The difference between success and failure for Israel in a war against Iran may well be what Russia chooses to do.  So, from your question, I can only assume that you are indifferent to the outcome of the war you want to fight?

Quote

Considering the recent record of Iranian proxies running away from battle instead of fighting to their death, I'd say we've thoroughly disproven this lie of regional war.

Iran largely stayed out of both the Gazan and Hezbollah wars.  

Edited December 28, 2024 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

55 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Look at a map.  The Israelis need Jordanian and Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.  Eastern Syria, where the bulk of Syrian AD was not concentrated and is full of Kurdish and US forces, is of less benefiet.  

Is this a parody? Maybe you should open a map, because Jordan isn't even on the path. Israel can fly to Iran through Syria and Iraq without even passing over Jordan.

I swear the intellectual level here is sub-zero.

57 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The fall of Syria and setbacks suffered by Hezbollah are minor events

So were the bombings of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Tokyo, and the German invasion of Belgium. Yet in the end these had huge effect on the development of WW2.

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The Iranian missiles forces were always the main force against Israel.  Hezbollah was obviously not deemed of central importance in Tehran for a war with Israel,

And yet these missiles were stationed primarily in Baalbek, Beirut, and south Lebanon. Operated by Hezbollah. If you really think the IRGC was able to deploy in the tens of thousands to replace the necessary manpower - I have a bridge to sell to you.

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The Iranians were not using the land corridor to Lebanon because it was unreliable and dangerous

You, who consistently made embarrassing geographical mistakes, are going to lecture me about what went on in the land corridor?

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The difference between success and failure for Israel in a war against Iran may well be what Russia chooses to do.

No.

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

So, from your question, I can only assume that you are indifferent to the outcome of the war you want to fight?

Making wrong assumptions is your recurring theme.

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Iran largely stayed out of both the Gazan and Hezbollah wars.

Cry about it.

[glenn239]

On 12/28/2024 at 1:13 PM, Mighty_Zuk said:

Is this a parody? Maybe you should open a map, because Jordan isn't even on the path. Israel can fly to Iran through Syria and Iraq without even passing over Jordan.

The IAF can and will obviously fly over Jordan and Iraq to attack Iran.  It did not, does not, and will not require Syrian airspace for this mission.   Before Assad fell the IAF could attack Iran, after he fell they can still do so.   So your claim that the removal of the Syrian AD network has a material impact on the situation is wrong.  It doesn't have that much impact on the situation.

Quote

So were the bombings of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Tokyo, and the German invasion of Belgium. Yet in the end these had huge effect on the development of WW2.

The facts remain.  Hezbollah was damaged in a series of attacks, but Israel did not press its advantage.  Now Hezbollah will be recovering and Israel seems to be squandering its period of advantage. 

Quote

... these missiles were stationed primarily in Baalbek, Beirut, and south Lebanon. Operated by Hezbollah. If you really think the IRGC was able to deploy in the tens of thousands to replace the necessary manpower - I have a bridge to sell to you.

Bullshit.  AFAIK, all the missiles and drones Iran attacked Israel with in its two raids were launched from Iran, (maybe a few from Iraq).  Hezbollah played no role.  The Iranians do not rely on any of their proxies for their missile deterrence.  All of their deterrent forces are Iranian national.   The Hezbollah rocket forces were Hezbollah's arsenal reserved for Hezbollah's political agenda.  So, the Iranians did not intervene in that war because the loss of Hezbollah's missile forces has nothing to do with Iran's capacity to use its own missile forces to exercise deterrence.

Quote

You, who consistently made embarrassing geographical mistakes, are going to lecture me about what went on in the land corridor?

I'd seen numerous reports that Iran was not using the land corridor before the fall of Assad because it was dangerous, and if so, that means your assertion that the loss of a corridor that was not being used is of consequence is wrong.  Look, I get it, you are Stuarting.  You want war with Iran and you will spin any yarn, pull any "fact" out of your ass that you think moves the ball in that direction.  That's fine, just don't assume that when you shit your latest claims all over the forum that no one is going to call you on your bullshit.  It is not at all clear that the loss of the land corridor will sever Iranian communications with Hezbollah. 

Quote

Cry about it.

Iran largely stayed out of Israel's wars with Hamas and Hezbollah.  The reason for this will be because its critical security interests were not engaged.

 

Edited December 29, 2024 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The IAF can and will obviously fly over Jordan and Iraq to attack Iran.  It did not, does not, and will not require Syrian airspace for this mission.   Before Assad fell the IAF could attack Iran, after he fell they can still do so.   So your claim that the removal of the Syrian AD network has a material impact on the situation is wrong.  It doesn't have that much impact on the situation.

The facts remain.  Hezbollah was damaged in a series of attacks, but Israel did not press its advantage.  Now Hezbollah will be recovering and Israel seems to be squandering its period of advantage. 

Bullshit.  AFAIK, all the missiles and drones Iran attacked Israel with in its two raids were launched from Iran, (maybe a few from Iraq).  Hezbollah played no role.  The Iranians do not rely on any of their proxies for their missile deterrence.  All of their deterrent forces are Iranian national.   The Hezbollah rocket forces were Hezbollah's arsenal reserved for Hezbollah's political agenda.  So, the Iranians did not intervene in that war because the loss of Hezbollah's missile forces has nothing to do with Iran's capacity to use its own missile forces to exercise deterrence.

I'd seen numerous reports that Iran was not using the land corridor before the fall of Assad because it was dangerous, and if so, that means your assertion that the loss of a corridor that was not being used is of consequence is wrong.  Look, I get it, you are Stuarting.  You want war with Iran and you will spin any yarn, pull any "fact" out of your ass that you think moves the ball in that direction.  That's fine, just don't assume that when you shit your latest claims all over the forum that no one is going to call you on your bullshit.  It is not at all clear that the loss of the land corridor will sever Iranian communications with Hezbollah. 

Iran largely stayed out of Israel's wars with Hamas and Hezbollah.  The reason for this will be because its critical security interests were not engaged.

 

You will receive a response when you'll stop trolling.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Just tell him siebel ferries were a zionist invention, he'll come round.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Footage from the Israeli commando raid in Syria in September.

That's historical, and the only reason it barely made headlines is Hezbollah's even more historical whoop-ass at the same time.

I remember the operational as a very big deal. It really demonstrates how much big events can depend on the "stars aligning".

 

Edited January 2 by Mighty_Zuk

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Footage from the Israeli commando raid in Syria in September.

That's historical, and the only reason it barely made headlines is Hezbollah's even more historical whoop-ass at the same time.

I remember the operational as a very big deal. It really demonstrates how much big events can depend on the "stars aligning".

 

The facility was largely abandoned or what?

[Mighty_Zuk]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

The facility was largely abandoned or what?

No, just the footage was highly redacted.

They reportedly had to kill 30 guards to get in, and there were constant airstrikes all around to keep reinforcements at bay.

[lucklucky]

Why could not be destroyed by missiles or bombing?