Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Markus Becker]

We might have a cease fire for Lebanon. The usual terms that haven'tworked for the last 20 years. Israel withdraws, the Lebanese military gets in control of the border, Hisbollah is supposed to stay away from the area. 

Israel probably agreed to have one less problem at this moment, concentrate on Hamas and than revisit Hisbollah in February.  Provided Hisbollah keeps its feet still until than. 

Edit: Details in the other thread.

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/40753-the-middle-east-war/page/184/#findComment-1782260

 

Edited November 27, 2024 by Markus Becker

[R011]

17 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

We might have a cease fire for Lebanon. The usual terms that haven'tworked for the last 20 years. Israel withdraws, the Lebanese military gets in control of the border, Hisbollah is supposed to stay away from the area. 

Israel probably agreed to have one less problem at this moment, concentrate on Hamas and than revisit Hisbollah in February.  Provided Hisbollah keeps its feet still until than. 

Edit: Details in the other thread.

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/40753-the-middle-east-war/page/184/#findComment-1782260

 

With luck, Hezbollah leadership and capabilities have been degraded enough for the Lebanese Army to take and keep control.  At least for now.

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, R011 said:

With luck, Hezbollah leadership and capabilities have been degraded enough for the Lebanese Army to take and keep control.  At least for now.

Very unlikely Lebanese army will seek a confrontation with Hezbullah. They’ll for sure ‘control’ the area but will turn a blind eye to whatever Hezbullah does in the future, as this has been the case for a long time 

[Mighty_Zuk]

7 hours ago, R011 said:

With luck, Hezbollah leadership and capabilities have been degraded enough for the Lebanese Army to take and keep control.  At least for now.

Hezbollah built 2 separate "branches", so to speak. 

One with hundreds of thousands of artillery projectiles from mortars up to SRBMs, and fighters at the border to keep the IDF busy.

And another in Beirut and other cities to keep Lebanon under its control.

These two capability sets are largely separate, possibly even with well separated command structure. Israel dismantled Hezbollah's ability to attack Israel in the near future, but Hezbollah's grip on Lebanon remains almost unchallenged.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Full text of the ceasefire agreement between Israel-Lebanon.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal/

Contents of the US side letter to Israel are not available yet.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Since I'm seeing some confusion on Twitter, the ceasefire agreement only means Hezbollah ceases fire. Israel can definitely fly sorties above Lebanon and conduct airstrikes on Hezbollans south of the Litani. The only condition is to fly subsonic.

[txtree99]

looks like the IAF will need a lot of procurement in the near future 
 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-831078

[Mighty_Zuk]

34 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

looks like the IAF will need a lot of procurement in the near future 
 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-831078

It will, yes. AH-64 Apaches need replacement. Some of the older F-16s and F-15s are worn out. The oldest ones are stationed in Ramat David AFB and they did most of the CAP for over a year.

Also tens of thousands of JDAMs, hundreds of thousands of artillery shells - and so much more.

[lucklucky]

So they will be repeating the mistake of relying in very expensive aircraft that are very vulnerable to drones and ballistic missiles.

I am afraid next 6 Days War type of anti airbase attack will be against Israel/West/Korea . And will not be done with aircraft.

The problems Iran created to Israel air defence were done with a very small fraction of that expenditure.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

So they will be repeating the mistake of relying in very expensive aircraft that are very vulnerable to drones and ballistic missiles.

I am afraid next 6 Days War type of anti airbase attack will be against Israel/West/Korea . And will not be done with aircraft.

The problems Iran created to Israel air defence were done with a very small fraction of that expenditure.

Kinda missing the entire series of events since 2023 but ok.

You can read it in my post history since many years ago until even after the events of September 2024.

Shutting down Israel's airbases and even destroying aircraft on the ground was very much in Hezbollah's and Iran's plans. In fact it was central to their strategy, along with an October 7th-like invasion into northern Israel.

They built their arsenal for decades and still couldn't do even this one task.

Iran fired hundreds of expensive MRBMs and failed to do any damage beyond expending some interceptors.

Yeah I think we can rest assured that even this threat was massively overhyped and turned out to be a nothingburger.

Besides what's even the alternative? Massive fleets of drones? Israel already has those.

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Shutting down Israel's airbases and even destroying aircraft on the ground was very much in Hezbollah's and Iran's plans. In fact it was central to their strategy, along with an October 7th-like invasion into northern Israel.....

 

....Iran fired hundreds of expensive MRBMs and failed to do any damage beyond expending some interceptors.

We can discern from the pattern of the two Iranian attacks that an attempt to physically knock out an airbase was not the objective.  The actual objectives in both cases appear to have been to determine the capacity of the American-Isreali air defense network to repel attacks, and, judging from the pattern of hits, to assess whether tactics such as assigning missiles against taxiways and aprons was viable.

[Mighty_Zuk]

4 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

We can discern from the pattern of the two Iranian attacks that an attempt to physically knock out an airbase was not the objective.  The actual objectives in both cases appear to have been to determine the capacity of the American-Isreali air defense network to repel attacks, and, judging from the pattern of hits, to assess whether tactics such as assigning missiles against taxiways and aprons was viable.

Israel gets:

Some holes in runways it patched in under 24h.

Iran gets:

The knowledge that hitting runways without massive consecutive strikes does fuck all. A humiliating surrender agreement for its largest military force outside its borders. And for the first time in decades - strikes on its soil.

 

Nice trade.

[lucklucky]

That is because they did not concentrated their fire. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

49 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

That is because they did not concentrated their fire. 

Cope, seethe, mald.

[lucklucky]

It is only math and geography.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 minute ago, lucklucky said:

It is only math and geography.

Doesn't matter the reason. Whatever they did - yielded very little gain if at all, and they got smacked hard in return. That's, by all means, a massive failure.

What would they even achieve if they concentrated fire? More runway damage? Sure, that'll get patched up as well. Their MRBMs are too inaccurate to be effectively used vs an airbase. They have to use their entire launch capacity to do very limited damage. That was a full salvo on Nevatim, doing no real damage. They have SOME more accurate BMs, but they're too new and not enough were built.

[lucklucky]

I did not say it wasn't a failure if was their intention which i doubt since i think they do not want a full war at present, there was no aircraft in the base after all.  I did say that the future will not be a failure, rockets and drones will get better longer ranged. Unless the defence tech ups the game i am seeing attacking weapons getting a bigger upper hand in near future.

[Mighty_Zuk]

43 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

I did not say it wasn't a failure if was their intention which i doubt since i think they do not want a full war at present, there was no aircraft in the base after all.  I did say that the future will not be a failure, rockets and drones will get better longer ranged. Unless the defence tech ups the game i am seeing attacking weapons getting a bigger upper hand in near future.

Hezbollah was a key enabler for Iranian ops. It's gone. How is it not going to be a failure?

They wasted a huge amount of MRBMs and lost their key air defenses. Their ability to prosecute strike campaigns in Israel has greatly diminished. Meanwhile Israel is setting up production for a laser based system that will free up significant resources to stock up on interceptors, and deploying anti-drone defenses to negate Iran's ability to utilize drones and cruise missiles.

It's impossible to twist this horrendous loss for Iran in any way that puts it at an advantage.

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Israel gets:

Some holes in runways it patched in under 24h.

Iran gets:

The knowledge that hitting runways without massive consecutive strikes does fuck all. A humiliating surrender agreement for its largest military force outside its borders. And for the first time in decades - strikes on its soil.

 

Nice trade.

The fact that the missiles were obviously targeted at the runways and not the buildings was the first clue.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The fact that the missiles were obviously targeted at the runways and not the buildings was the first clue.

Clue to what?

[Mighty_Zuk]

So Hezbollah just broke the ceasefire. Not good, but not unexpected. Doesn't mean it's over though. Maybe a few smacks on the Syria border or Beirut and it'll be back to quiet.

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1863598817012040102

[Mighty_Zuk]

Israel's new minister of defense, Israel Katz, threatened to hit Lebanon's national infrastructure if ceasefire is broken.

I see this as empty threats. While it is doable, a ceasefire is very much in Israel's interest. More than it is for Lebanon.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-831778

[Mighty_Zuk]

Unprecedented clashes in Samaria region since yesterday.

Jenin in particular has been a hotspot for terrorists for decades. I assume mostly Hamas but also a lot of others often new ones popping up. The PA never really ruled there, and it was the IDF's responsibility eventually to keep things in check and prevent a PA collapse.

I assume this is directly connected to the situation in Gaza and a power struggle to subdue the PA and maintain rule in Gaza under the facade of a PA administration.

This is also a sign Hamas sees an upcoming conclusion to the situation in Gaza and particularly a hostage deal that's been talked about for weeks now.

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

With Syria's air defenses gone, there is now a clear path between Israel and Iran.

Israel could operate over Syria freely before, but flying vulnerable tankers, helicopters, and cargo aircraft is another thing.

[Mighty_Zuk]

WSJ reports that Trump is weighing strike options in Iran. I believe that regardless of whether Trump chooses to go for a deal with the IRGC or topple it like in Syria, a strike is necessary to reverse some of the work done and set back the breakout period. 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-plan-nuclear-weapons-def26f1d